Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Outlook looks mostly cold through March 24th though our snow-prospects have been downgraded

Snow continues to fly as of Wednesday evening and a few more bursts early Wednesday night should bring our total into the 30-35 inch range (I actually thought we were there already but I wasn't the one keeping score). What an incredible storm !  One felt by the entire state and one that was especially generous to ski country. It was an ironic twist in a "twisted" winter that almost 3 feet of beautiful, skiable and not particularly windblown snow now covers many areas with a non-existent base. We literally did need almost every inch from this storm to turn to get this epic day we all hoped might happen next year.

This is the type of storm that can be enjoyed for several days and it's a good thing because our snow prospects have probably been downgraded as of the time of this update. Flurries should continue into a good part of Thursday and some additional snow should greet skiers by the time the lifts open. Cold weather will also continue with temperatures well below freezing (high's only in the teens Thursday) and brisk winds. The cold weather will continue on Friday and Saturday. Friday should feature some sunshine and less winds making the 20-25 degree temperatures feel balmy.

A much smaller winter storm is expected to impact the northeast on Saturday. The storm and most of its associated jet energy is expected to undercut a receding polar jet stream and amplify offshore. Most of the precipitation is expected to remain south of northern Vermont though that hasn't been entirely decided. Right now I would probably include some light snow in a forecast for Saturday but I am doubtful whether it amounts to much given trends in some of the data. Southern Vermont and the Berkshires could certainly score a few inches and the Connecticut hills might end up doing the best. Any warm-up for the weekend though has basically been thwarted and snow conditions should remain powdery, if not increasingly packed through Sunday morning. A strong late March sun on Sunday March 19th could push temperatures past the freezing mark close to the base.

For next week we have another surge of cold weather to talk about. It may not arrive until late Tuesday which leaves the opportunity for a few above-freezing afternoons Monday and perhaps Tuesday. This is entirely normal in mid-March if we are not fully immersed in arctic chill. When such arctic chill does arrive late Tuesday it could bring some snow with it though it remains to be seen how much. The cold weather from this airmass should persist through Friday and this essentially means snow from the recent storm will cover the slopes until then.

A large storm may impact the region around the time of the aforementioned Friday March 24th and continue into Saturday March 25th. There are clear indications that the cold weather will receding but it doesn't necessarily mean that the storm in question can't produce snow. It's certainly possible that some snow falls and the storm might include a whole allotment of precipitation types before it exits the region. After that, there are visible indications of a turn to more spring-like weather. We haven't had a lot of support from any of the teleconnection indices during most of the winter and it certainly doesn't look like we will have much help in late March. This would mean a mild finish to a very topsy-turvy month though we could again see changes to this outlook. Anyway, hope everyone got a chance to enjoy the storm. It was certainly one of the more memorable ones in the 12 or so years I've been doing the blog.


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