tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post544739315959533723..comments2024-03-27T10:53:08.390-05:00Comments on The Single Chair Weather Blog: No escaping a period of rain Tuesday but an improved outlook follows that Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-82251977133177417782016-02-28T17:05:47.050-05:002016-02-28T17:05:47.050-05:00Great convo, guys. Thanks. I study climate change ...Great convo, guys. Thanks. I study climate change broadly - but I am not a modeler or a climate scientist - I'm a social scientist. I haven't looked at the trends, but New England gets far less snow than it did, on average, 50 years ago. That is why small ski hills around here are going out of business left and right. So the long term trend is declining snow, rising temps and more rain. El Nino confounded things this year, exacerbating an already declining snowfall average. But, my understanding is that El Nino has been SO extreme b/c of climate change. I'm just curious how the models are assessing this and why they can't quite seem to keep up with it all. Charlie Hohn - great point about Arctic sea ice. I understand that it's a total shocker for scientists this winter and terrifies many of them. It's not a well-understood element yet. Yeah Josh - great work. And I agree that most people align day to day variability with climate change - which is not accurate. It's all about long term trends. And unfortunately, they don't look great for those of use who love to ski. Porter Fox wrote this awesome book: Deep - on this very phenomena. I skinned up MRG on Friday and made some beautiful powder turns with some girlfriends on Friday. So...I guess you never know.Elizabethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16686561739472472917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-28411099568855388592016-02-17T16:33:48.807-05:002016-02-17T16:33:48.807-05:00Bad luck and El Nino. Global warming/global climat...Bad luck and El Nino. Global warming/global climate change lays way in the background of factors. Don't want to minimize its impact but people typically go way overboard when attributing it to seasonal variability or to a singular event. Joshua Foxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-17644329519993687392016-02-17T07:26:47.014-05:002016-02-17T07:26:47.014-05:00Great post Charlie. Thanks. I hadn't refresh...Great post Charlie. Thanks. I hadn't refreshed the screen before I posted so I just noticed it. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06320691911355056807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-79379858379247821402016-02-17T07:17:56.282-05:002016-02-17T07:17:56.282-05:00What I am saying is we are coming off a frigid and...What I am saying is we are coming off a frigid and snowy 2014-15 season. Does Josh, or any other poster that is knowledge on this topic, believe this year's weather is more related to global climate shift as opposed to the unpredictability of models and known weather patterns of an El Nino year? I realize there is no way to say for sure, but I would be curious to hear your thoughts. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06320691911355056807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-50472166401507446382016-02-17T06:55:40.109-05:002016-02-17T06:55:40.109-05:00I, admittedly, know less than many people regardin...I, admittedly, know less than many people regarding models, and long term forecasting. That said, don't we know that El Nino years tend to produce these types of events, and are often unpredictable? I get that it's frustrating, but this can't be completely unexpected either. I only say this, because the impression I get reading some of the other posts is that this is completely unprecedented. Is this year's weather indicative of a larger issue, or is this just a bad El Nino year for New England?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06320691911355056807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-26880653880594170712016-02-16T19:05:16.453-05:002016-02-16T19:05:16.453-05:00Gregory what are you talking about? Or did a troll...Gregory what are you talking about? Or did a troll post get deleted?<br />Elizabeth... We are definitely in uncharted territory. I'm not an expert but here's what I know. Some of the models run on analogy with past events and those are definitely going to get "confused" by climate change. Some don't and are simply fluid dynamics type models and are affected less but I'm sure still to some extent. In addition to whatever climate change is doing, there's a large and non traditional El Niño going on. There's also forecaster interpretation of models which can be hard in unprecedented events. Though none of these annoying rain storms this year are themselves really unprecedented the problem is they keep reoccurring. One possible consequence of global climate change that is somehow linked to arctic sea ice is the jet stream getting stuck in one place longer than it used to causing storms or drought or etc to repeat more than they used to. Or so it seems. Charlie Hohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11592135980458005047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-84653808846238723932016-02-16T18:50:32.383-05:002016-02-16T18:50:32.383-05:00Are you noticing that people are ignoring your pat...Are you noticing that people are ignoring your pathetic attempt at trolling?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17835649317763242839noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-46447836211467053382016-02-16T00:59:26.204-05:002016-02-16T00:59:26.204-05:00Good grief. Good grief. Benedict Gomezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12454691279599394875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-48530698924957350482016-02-15T14:21:37.065-05:002016-02-15T14:21:37.065-05:00I love this blog. Thanks Josh!! And, I'm start...I love this blog. Thanks Josh!! And, I'm starting to get curious about the reliability of models in such an unreliable pattern of global change. Charlie - I'm a neophyte, but it sounds like what you describe could be a function of climate change not accounted for in the models. Could that be true? (This is not a knock on the models or modeling, this is curiosity.)Elizabethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16686561739472472917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-11119834167494464212016-02-15T14:08:57.815-05:002016-02-15T14:08:57.815-05:00This winter has a weird way of giving the model ru...This winter has a weird way of giving the model runs a lot of snowstorms in the longer range, but all fail to appear or else turn to rain or sleet by the time they get here. it reminds me very much of living in southern California during a past drought. Forecasts of storms abounded but rain failed to materialize. Wish I could send tomorrow's rain to them too.Charlie Hohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11592135980458005047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-6925904403650389812016-02-14T19:51:57.483-05:002016-02-14T19:51:57.483-05:00It's been a frustrating winter. So it goes. ...It's been a frustrating winter. So it goes. This past week was great, but we had no existing base to build on. Regardless of the conditions, I enjoy everyday I get to spend on the mountain because it's more fun than pretty much anything. You do a great job with the blog Josh, and your work is greatly appreciated. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06320691911355056807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-46062411589799080072016-02-14T13:18:29.450-05:002016-02-14T13:18:29.450-05:00I feel ya', David. How much of this is climate...I feel ya', David. How much of this is climate change confusing the models??Elizabethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16686561739472472917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-15247122513226518402016-02-14T12:44:52.787-05:002016-02-14T12:44:52.787-05:00"But an improved outlook follows that"....."But an improved outlook follows that"... Ah, the now-familiar refrain. I'll believe when it actually happens. <br /><br />This is no knock on you. I absolutely love your blog--it's brilliant and has helped me get through this disaster of a winter--but I've noticed the weather gods constantly tease us with hints of future reprieve, only to have potential storms either fall apart and leave us with nothing or turn to rain. <br /><br />January sucked, but February will be better. Okay, February is turning out to be even worse, but March will be...oh, never mind. At this point, I think I'm just going to stop thinking about the weather altogether and just get whatever skiing in that I can.<br /><br />Next year, baby, next year...<br /><br />Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05772428354211971296noreply@blogger.com