tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-74092190017954256562024-03-18T11:00:52.675-05:00The Single Chair Weather Blogblog'n for powderJoshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.comBlogger927125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-68999666645332538422024-03-18T10:44:00.004-05:002024-03-18T10:45:08.528-05:00Very wintry week with snowfall expected almost every day through Thursday <p>Winter-like temps and snow showers have returned to the northern Vermont country and I am expecting a very interesting next 3-4 days of weather. It begins rather immediately as a deep layer of instability, not atypical of early Spring, but impressive regardless, establishes itself over the state. The vertical cross section of the lowest 9,000 feet of the Mad River Glen atmosphere is rather magnificent looking and is inidcating the potential for very heavy snow showers Monday evening and night. We are lacking just a tad on the flow. Mad River Glen snow squall fans such as myself prefer a northwest flow off Lake Champlain the prevailing west to northwest flow favors Smuggs and Stowe, but I expect this deep layer of instablity to work some magic anyway. Intermittent heavy snow Monday evening and night will bring 3-6 inches to the mountains, 1-3 inches to valley areas and potentially more than 6 to the mountains north of Waterbury. </p><p>The ski day on Tuesday appears drier and chilly with temperatures hovering in the 20's on the mountain. An approaching clipper system will help stabilize the lower troposphere and also help lower wind speeds from what was a blustery Monday. Snow from this aforementioned clipper will arrive Tuesday evening and fall sporadically and not too heavily through Wednesday morning. We are not on the right side of this clipper system and this will keep snow accumulations in the 1-3 inch range Tuesday night and during the ski day on Wednesday. Once we turn the flow northwesterly later Wednesday, heavier snow showers are again likely and should persist into early Thursday. The depth of the instability doesn't appear quite as impressive as Monday night but the flow is better aligned for MRG and snow totals are certainly capable of exceeding an additional 4 inches (on top of what falls Tuesday night and Wednesday). The incoming airmass late on Wednesday is also quite cold for late March and will bring temperatures into the 15-25 degree range for most of Thursday. It will be dry by Friday morning with more sunshine and with temperatures as low as 5 degrees in few spots. </p><p>Where have you been arctic pattern ? It's here for this week with cold air in place for the upcoming weekend as southern stream moisture tries to converge with a polar impulse. Models are still at odds with whether this can successfully manifest into a big snow producing event though I think a light accumulation of snow Friday night or Saturday is likely while a bigger event remains possible. </p><p>Jet stream configuration and trough axis along with the cold air is expected to shift west after this weekend lowering our prospects for the continuation of winter weather though not eliminating the chances for snowfall entirely. More spring-like temperatures or at least spring-like days have become more likely beginning Monday the 25th and I expect at least two of those in the week beginning that day. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-88078700075062746372024-03-14T12:45:00.004-05:002024-03-14T12:45:45.905-05:00A two-dose shot of wet snowfall over the next few days across northern Vermont high country <p> It has been an especially warm winter in the Great Lakes region. After recording the warmest February on record, the first 14 days of March in Chicago has been warmer than the same period in the historically warm March of 2012. The state of Vermont has also been very mild during this 6-week period, but has not featured that mid-spring warmth that has persistently impacted locations farther west. It's been pretty close however with excessive temperatures often impacting Burlington and locations in the Champlain Valley while failing to make it passed the Long Trail. All of these regions are poised to have a very different outcome than March of 2012 as a different weather pattern will dominate the eastern two thirds of the country for the back half of the month. A mild day or two appears possible during the last 5 days of the month but both colder weather and snowfall should remain a more prevailing part of the outlook until April with the dominating jet stream feature consisting of a omega-like block near the Yukon/AK border.<br /></p><p>There are a few chances for some wet snowfall over the next few days. A wave of low pressure passing to our south will spread an area of rainfall over northern Vermont Thursday night. This rain will turn to snow beginning at higher elevations first, but ultimately everyone in the valley will be seeing snowfall by morning. This appears to be a 2-5 inch wet snowfall for the high country ending by late morning with the near freezing temperatures rising to the high 30's during the afternoon. </p><p>Only a few intervals of blue sky can be expected for the weekend, mostly on Saturday. More elevation sensitive snowfall can be expected for Sunday. This time we are on the wrong and warmer side of the impacting low pressure area and though its cold enough to snow above 2000 feet, precipitation will be fairly disorganized and the moderate, accumulating snow will be intermittent across the mountains or falling as mixed precipitation and/or graupel over valley locations. Another 2-4 inches is my first guess with this 2nd event, though to reiterate, this applies only to the mountains and little accumulation can be expected on the valley floor. </p><p>The same section of high country that is expecting some wet snowfall over the coming few days, can expect a 5 day period of below freezing temperatures beginning on Monday. Instability snow showers will accompany the chill late on Monday through most of Tuesday. By Wednesday there are indications that a more significant clipper type feature capable of bringing more substantial and powdery snow to MRG. The snow could be followed by our coldest weather of the month on the mountain with readings potentially staying below 25 both Thursday and Friday and struggling to bet above freezing over the mountains. The reinforcing area of cold late next week should bring the return of some sunshine for at least a day or two. If the strong southern branch storm stays south of New England for the weekend of March 23 and 24th, sunshine will continue and temperatures will moderate. If the storm comes north, that will be a situation certainly worth discussing. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-12368283543473380082024-03-12T13:05:00.002-05:002024-03-12T13:05:27.951-05:00Colder weather pattern supports additional snowfall for the VT high country with some spring-like days sprinkled in<p>The duration of March will feature some sprint-like days, especially over low lying valley areas. That said, winter 2023-2024 isn't done and the weather pattern for the foreseeable future favors several opportunities for additional snowfall and a few multi-day periods of colder weather capable of keeping temperatures below the freezing mark across the mountains. </p><p>Temperatures will drop into the 20's Wednesday morning before one such spring-like period begins with readings climbing into the 40's during the afternoon followed by near 50-degree temperatures Thursday near base areas. Clouds will be more prevalent Thursday as low pressure approaches from the southwest. It will pretty mild when precipitation from this feature arrives from this feature, mild enough for rain or mixed precipitation in valley locations. We are on the colder side of this system however and this means some additional wet snowfall for the high country early Friday. I wouldn't expect a lot, 2-5 inches of pretty gloppy snow, but it does replace my wetter expectations from a few days ago. </p><p>It appears as if we are in between weather systems for Saturday, another more spring-like day in valley areas with temperatures in the 40's though it should remain a bit closer to freezing over the high country. A widespread area of colder air will then be pushing south into the Great Lakes region by early Sunday, bringing with it, along with the colder air, an area of precipitation that should impact northern Vermont Sunday. Again, temperatures might not be cold enough to support snowfall in valley areas, but they should be over the mountains and this means more accumulating wet snow. By Monday, colder air will support more powdery snowfall, probably in the form of snow showers. </p><p>This is probably the most favorable upstream environment we've had for sustained wintry weather in Vermont with favorable conditions both in the Pacific and in the Alaska/Yukon area. Most of the week beginning Monday the 18th through Friday, March 22n appears wintry and I think there's some storm potential for late in the week. The favorable weather pattern has to overwhelm an obscene warm weather feedback stemming from a warm Great Lakes aggregate thanks to the sustained torch impacting that region through much of last month. Another big storm late in March is thus certainly not a guarantee but the weather patterns certainly supports this possibility both late next week and beyond the 22nd when more colder late March weather appears likely. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-20291465703301625112024-03-10T10:47:00.002-05:002024-03-10T10:47:25.498-05:00Over a foot of mostly powdery additional snow expected over the mountains late Sunday into Monday<p>Heavy wet snow pummeled much the northern Vermont high country Saturday night and early Sunday and with it came the power outages. The wet snow always brings this risk, but it appears especially bad thanks to the fact that snow fell over largely unfrozen ground, leaving many large trees susceptible to an uprooting. Thirteen thousand customers just in Washington County alone according to <a href="https://poweroutage.us/area/state/vermont">power outage US</a>. Hopefully folks impacted by this get electricity back soon including the ski areas which appear to have been affected Sunday morning. With the surface low pressure center tracking west of Boston and over interior New Hampshire and Maine, much of Vermont experienced the expected lull in the storm early Sunday. A deep layer of northwest flow is poised to establish itself over the entire state Sunday afternoon allowing the wrap-around moist conveyor of the storm to bring snow back to the mountains. Snow should be falling lightly late Sunday afternoon and evening and intensify over the mountains even as it remains more intermittent in valley areas. Most importantly, temperatures above 1500 feet will cool into the 20's changing the consistency of the snow to a drier, more powdery variety. Aside from being nicer to ski in, the drier is also a little easier on power lines. Northwest winds are expected to increase Sunday night into Monday even as the snowfall continues. Expect blustery conditions Monday with 20-40 mph winds, temperatures in the 20's and the additional snowfall which should taper off to flurries Monday afternoon or evening. I expect we receive another 2-4 inches Sunday, 6-12 inches of powdery snow Sunday night and an additional 3-6 during the day Monday. This would bring us to a storm total ranging from 20 to 34 inches. </p><p>More sunshine, diminishing winds and milder 35-40 degree temperatures can be expected for Tuesday with readings climbing into the 40's across valley locations. Clouds are expected to return for Wednesday but temperatures are expected to climb well into the 40's </p><p>More weather is expected late in the week as low pressure is expected to emerge in the plains and track eastward and eventually somewhere south of Vermont. Cold air is in short supply but a minimal push of cooler temperatures is expected to push south just ahead of any precipitation which keeps us in play for some wet snowfall. The prospects for snow appear better as we get closer to St Patrick's Day thanks to colder air which as I've mentioned in prior posts, appears to want to stick around for the ensuing week. More on that in the next update. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-61872296815757649712024-03-08T11:23:00.002-05:002024-03-08T11:23:57.712-05:00Biggest storm of the season set to hammer MRG with 21-42 inches Saturday night through Monday<p>Got a real solid update on our powerful winter storm storm incoming. Just a beautiful elevation event for the northern Green Mountains and it really just comes down to sorting through all the particulars which we will try to do in this update. </p><p>Meanwhile, sunshine finally made an appearance and another round of sub-freezing temperatures Friday night should give us a short break from the mud. We've managed to eradicate the excessive warmth for the time being but temperatures are still running above normal and are more typical of the back half of March than the first half. All that said, even the limited amounts of cold appears to be enough to keep this upcoming event snow above 2,000 feet and mostly snow between 1000 - 2000 feet. Clouds from this approaching weather system should arrive just after sunrise Saturday and continue to thicken throughout the ski day. </p><p>I was really encouraged to see data from higher resolution Euro and NAM indicate very robust strengthening of low pressure near the Jersey coast Saturday night. This feature will quickly become the dominant component of this system, consolidating the storm as it tracks just west of Boston on Sunday. With temperatures rising into the 40's across valley areas Saturday and near 40 across the high country, precipitation is likely to start as a mix or rain depending on elevation Saturday evening. Wet bulb readings suggests a quick turn to snow above 2000 feet and a gradual turn to snow above 1000 feet. Very heavy snowfall is indicated on a few simulations early Sunday morning before a potential lull in the storm during the middle part of the day. <br /></p><p>Snow consistency appears pretty wet below 3000 feet during the first part of this event. There is a substantial column of boundary level air indicated to be in the 28-33 degree range on model cross sections through midday Sunday. Keep in mind that heavy wet thump snow can both make travel conditions very treacherous and cause power outages, especially when combined with wind. Conditions begin to change late Sunday as colder air begins to settle across the high country as the flow becomes northwesterly. This is ultimately what will separate this storm from the pack this year as the setup appears outstanding for a continuation of colder snow across the mountains Sunday evening, night and Monday. The flow looks great and the storm will be slow enough to depart to allow lingering moisture to just hammer the northern Greens with continuous cold snow. Here are my expectations on snow totals period by period. Please keep in mind that this is a very elevation sensitive event and if you're reading from the Champlain Valley, your outcome will be very different and considerably less snowy than the one forecasted for the mountains. </p><p>Saturday Night: Mixed precip changing to snow - thump potential toward dawn. 6-12 inches mostly wet snow <br /></p><p>Sunday Day: Heavy snow early, possible lull midday or afternoon. 3-6 inches mostly wet snow </p><p>Sunday Night: Snow occasionally heavy. 6-12 inches of powder </p><p>Monday: Snow or snow showers. Another 6-12 inches ! </p><p>Total storm accumulations by Monday evening: 21-42 inches </p><p>Snow will be out the door by Tuesday and temperatures will moderate approaching 40 degrees at base areas with the help of some sunshine. Stronger doses of sun on Wednesday will boost readings even further. Clouds are expected to return later in the week and there is a risk of light rain or mixed precipitation before cooler conditions return for St Patrick's Day weekend. </p><p>I still like the idea of a colder regime settling that could begin with some snow on St Patrick's Day. More generally however, it looks like we have a return of more wintry conditions by Monday and that should bring the potential for additional snowfall in some form during the week beginning Monday March 18. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-25246780366710118032024-03-06T12:33:00.003-05:002024-03-06T12:33:32.254-05:00Powerful storm has the potential to bring a foot or more of snow to the northern high country Sunday into Monday <p> Cloudy, damp and rainy weather continue plague the MRV and rainy part of this picture is expected to be with us through Wednesday night. The rain is expected to fall heavy enough Wednesday evening to total upwards of an inch though temperatures will stay cold enough to slow the continued melting of snow where it continues to exist across the high country. Boundary layer conditions would support a changeover to snow during the day Thursday if precipitation were to continue. Though models have teased such an outcome sporadically, there's been a pretty clear consensus that it dries out Thursday with the sun even making an appearance later in the day. The decrease in cloudiness will allow the mud to freeze Friday morning before another round of 40-50 degree temperatures and a welcomed full day of sunshine brings the mud right back. </p><p>Sunshine is now expected to return for the first part of Saturday which appears to be an excellent and very typical early spring day in Vermont (much like Friday appears to be) with lots of 20's in the morning and 40's in the afternoon. Clouds from our incoming storm system arrive for the back half of the day but winds should stay tame and precipitation won't arrive until sometime Saturday evening or at night. </p><p>The update on our late weekend storm goes as follows. Snowfall prospects really hinge on the familiar question of how quickly and efficiently this storm can transfer its energy to the coastline early on Sunday. The low pressure center in question is a formidable one but is tracking right at us with minimal amounts of antecedent cold air support. If we can make an ideal coastal transaction we will be snowing quite heavily across the high country early on Sunday and the snow would continue throughout the day, through Sunday night with snow showers continuing into Monday. Accumulations could total our best of the season by Monday evening and yes that means upwards of 2 feet. I continue to feel as if this is a very viable scenario. That said, models moved somewhat away from the "ideal" coastal transfer and it would allow for a longer period of wet weather Saturday night and early Sunday. This is a dynamic enough storm however to produce for us even with a less than ideal scenario. Midday models on Wednesday are struggling to produce a well defined coastal low near Cape Cod midday Sunday, but a coastal low ultimately does form, strengthen and slow in speed. Not only would a change to snow occur across the high country, snow consistency would become ideal with temperatures dropping into the 20's Sunday night into early Monday. Right now, I would put my snowfall spectrum in the 10-30 inch category. </p><p>The long range also continues to show promise. The outlook for the early part of next week consists of the snow showers I spoke of Monday, mostly sub-freezing weather Tuesday and a more gradual moderation in temperatures for the end of the week. It still appears more spring-like Wednesday to Friday, but more recent simulations have kept temperatures a little closer to climatology. </p><p>Teleconnections also continue to favor a turn toward colder weather after St Patrick's Day thanks to the combined influence of a more favorable Pacific and a jet stream in western North America that will push polar air in our direction. Snowfall during the March 18-22 period appears likely in some form. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-90862361506861916302024-03-04T14:48:00.006-05:002024-03-04T15:38:21.553-05:00Mild and damp for a few more days and then winter reemerges from the dead with snow potential Sunday/Monday and colder weather in the long range <p> If you're holding out hope of extending the ski season and even procuring ourselves one more really good storm, I offer some good news today. It continues to be very mild in the Mad River Valley and snow continues to melt, but we are most of the way through this very warm regime and are on the verge of heading back into a more typical March temperature range late this week and perhaps a colder than normal weather picture in the week beginning March 18th. There's snow to talk about as well. I am not especially bullish on snowfall Thursday but there is an excellent chance for some significant snow in the mountains late this weekend and into Monday, March 11. At the very least, it appears we've found a footing and won't go quietly into the night like 2016 and especially 2012. </p><p>I really don't want to spend inordinate amounts of time talking about rain and mild weather so I'll try to be fast with the short term outlook. We've got a wave of low pressure pushing moisture into New England on Tuesday. The clouds will keep temperatures into the 40's and most of the rain will fall south and east of northern Vermont, yet rain is expected during the ski day and for a few hours during the evening. Models are not showing rain for the Wednesday ski day and are instead insisting that clouds linger through another very mild early March day. A push of cooler weather is expected to arrive to accompany some steadier rainfall Wednesday evening into early Thursday. We are just a few degrees away from snow event with this batch of precipitation and if we are to somehow keep it going through the middle of the day, some wet snow could fall across the high country. Like I mentioned in the above paragraph however, I would not hold your breath. </p><p>Generally mild conditions are expected to continue into Friday before we finally get ourselves a sub-freezing night just ahead of the weekend. At that point, we will be watching a storm system in the Ohio Valley crank up and head in our direction. Our cold air will continue to be in short supply as precipitation arrives sometime Saturday night, so some initial wet weather is certainly possible. By early Sunday however, we've got some hard evidence that this storm will make a very nice transition to the New England coastline while cold air is entrained into back flank of this deepening coastal cyclone. This is not an uncommon New England weather map though I can't remember seeing anything closely resembling it since November which is ridiculous. Models continue to provide us with varying solutions on how the final details play out on Sunday, but I like the idea of mixed precipitation changing to snow and some decent accumulations late in the day Sunday and into the Sunday night and Monday. I certainly hope we can score a foot or more out of this and its possible, though for now I think a 6-plus inch event is the most probable. Hopefully I can upgrade our prognosis in a few days. </p><p>A changeable March scenario appears on tap between March 11-15 consisting of some cooler weather at the start of the week and some milder at the end of the week. The risk of more heavy rain appears minimal even as it warms up late next week but i wouldn't rule out some before it begins to get colder for St Patrick's Day weekend. Meanwhile conditions in the Pacific will be changing dramatically and this sets us up for a very favorable late March jet stream beginning around St Patrick's Day and extending through the following week. Both cold weather and snowfall are favored with the EPO cratering and providing support for a nice looking jet stream ridge in western North America. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-11159303898146562702024-03-01T13:28:00.014-05:002024-03-01T14:41:42.390-05:00Very mild weather returns early next week and growing indications of a significant storm around Sunday, March 11<p>Most of the prevailing uncertainties with the short term outlook in the last update have gotten sorted out as of Friday. The best chance to see some sunshine this weekend will be the sunrise on Saturday. After that, clouds overtake us and ultimately the rain will overtake us. There's a 1-2 hour window right around noon on Saturday for snow or a snow/sleet conglomeration. If we get lucky and precipitation falls hard enough in that time frame, we will see a small accumulation during the ski day. By then end of the ski day however, precipitation will be falling as a cold rain with a few isolated pockets of freezing rain. A third to a half inch of mostly rain is expected from all this, most of it falling Saturday evening and none of it falling during the day Sunday, though clouds are expected to linger most of that day with temperatures gradually rising into the middle 40'. </p><p>The next uncertainty relates to early next week,specifically the Monday to Wednesday time frame. This is just another victory for the mild air. The low level push of cold the Euro was teasing us with a few days ago has vanished and it looks like a torch. According to the American model, low clouds burn away Monday and Tuesday and temperatures will be in the 50's on much of the mountain and near 60 in valley areas. The Euro has been resistant in the elimination of these clouds and in fact has some rainfall reentering the weather picture on Tuesday. This would keep temperatures down slightly but it will be mild regardless and corn horns will be sounding at all elevations of the Vermont ski country. </p><p>We start moving into more model disagreement with the Wednesday outlook. I am of the opinion we see drier and cooler weather this day with temperatures generally holding in the 40's along with a few breaks of sunshine. The period Thursday through the 2nd full weekend of March looks very cloudy with several areas of precipitation potentially impacting Vermont. Could the low level push of cold air Wednesday be strong enough to set up a period of snowfall for Thursday or Friday (March 7th/8th) ? It's not impossible according to some data. For the 2nd full weekend of March, there are stronger indications that a more significant storm system takes shape. There's not a lot of cold air support with arctic air bottled up well to our north, but sometimes a strong low pressure area in March is enough to make the magic happen, at least with some help from elevation. In the wake of this feature will come a few days of cooler weather (March 12th-15th) though I still don't see an extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures <br /></p><p><br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-68681657602180532922024-02-28T13:36:00.002-05:002024-02-28T13:36:26.095-05:00Intense shot of arctic chill in the short term might be the last bitterly cold air we see this season even if snowfall returns for middle of March <p> If you, as a casual weather enthusiast, appreciate the flare for the dramatic that Vermont possesses then please enjoy the transition to abruptly colder weather Wednesday evening. The mild, showery weather on Wednesday might even include a few rumbles of thunder. The cold front will pass in dramatic fashion, dropping temperatures over 10-degrees in a matter of minutes around 7 or 8 pm and 40 degrees in a span of 12 hours. Snow is also expected Wednesday evening over the mountains. I continue to think 2-4 inches for the high country that will get very wind blown by the start of the ski day when temperatures are in the single numbers. Some sunshine will try and squeeze its way through the very light wind blown snow showers on Thursday but I would continue to describe the day as very blustery and chilly with temperatures hovering in the low teens. It's quite a transition but my big picture concern is that this is the last legitimate intrusion of arctic air for several weeks and that snowfall will be confined to the wetter elevation sensitive type events in the middle or later part of March. </p><p>Friday's temperatures will recover nicely from single digit readings in the morning to 30-plus readings in the afternoons. Winds won't diminish entirely but will decrease somewhat combined with a healthy dose of sunshine. As temperatures continue to modify over the weekend, it was my hope that we could keep sunshine in place. We have a chance to do that early on Saturday though this jet stream ridge appears dirtier allowing clouds to quickly advance up the coast and ultimately blanking most of New England for at least the later part of Saturday and into Sunday. Temperatures on both weekend days appear likely to eclipse 40 on the mountain but disagreement has emerged for Sunday and into the early part of next week on the extent of mild weather covering northern New England. The Euro has begun to show a low level push cooler temperatures from Quebec confining temperatures to the 30's and 40's during the days while there continue to be other indications of 1-3 days of 50-plus temperatures next week. I am inclined to believe that the cooler outcome has some validity, but there continues to be high risk for another rain event of some sort on Wednesday or Thursday of next week. It also might not be the last wet weather we see in this mild early March regime as ensembles suggest more wet weather for the 2nd full weekend of the month. One theme I would like to hammer home though is the return of clouds which will dominate the outlook beginning this weekend and persisting for better part of the week that follows. </p><p>The return of a more favorable NAO, a neutralized AO and a gradually less angry Pacific support some semblance of normalcy to the Vermont weather picture for the middle of March. Like I mentioned though, arctic cold looks extremely bottled up over our continent, concentrating its focus on Alaska and the Yukon mostly. Snowfall is still possible but I would favor it over the higher elevations and when snow does fall, there will be concerns over snow consistency. A first such opportunity for an elevation style snow event appear to be around March 11th or 12th or about 12 or so days away. It will follow a lot of above freezing temperatures even with a cooler outlook next week. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-15918509818107972302024-02-26T12:49:00.005-05:002024-02-26T12:49:57.657-05:00Beautiful spring Tuesday, rain, wind and excessive warmth for Wednesday and sharply colder weather for Thursday <p> If you continue to hope for a return of some winter after March 10th, I have a few breadcrumbs for you. Until then however, we have an ugly debauchery of a winter weather pattern consisting of a well defined jet stream structure favoring both cold and snow in the west and very mild weather in the northeast. This is terrific if you have plans to ski out west over the next few weeks but eastern ski enthusiasts can expect a situation more typical of late March or April. Over the last 15 or so years, the two worst March weather months were 2012 and 2016. Both of these months put salt in the wounds of bad snow seasons. 2012 consisted of a mammoth jet stream ridge over the middle part of the continent which caused the growing season to begin a month early of a wide swath of the country while 2016 was less warm, occurred after the last super nino winter and ensured that the worst snow season I can ever remember in Vermont, stayed that way. Long range indications suggest we might deviate from those outcomes, but that's about as optimistic as I can be. </p><p>The snow forecast for the next 7 days isn't quite zero and I'll get to that in a minute. First, I should alert folks to what will be an outstanding ski day Tuesday consisting of no new snow, but sunshine and near 50 degree temperatures. A few days ago, I wasn't sure if we could "mix out" Tuesday which is a term the meteorology community likes to use sometimes to describe a low level environment where mid level temperatures are fully mixed to the surface. These are typically low pollution days and if the mid-level environment is warm, so will surface temps, sometimes extremely so. Tuesday is such a case and readings should warm well into the 40's and even 50's at base areas, bringing with it the corn horn. I should highlight Tuesday because I can't guarantee that snow cover will return to where it will be tomorrow once this warm weather pattern plays out in the next 10 days. Wednesday is the ugly days with surging dewpoints, gusty south winds and rain which will begin Tuesday night and continue, in sporadic fashion through the ski day Wednesday. We aren't expecting a lot of rain though we are expecting the trifecta of ingredients for snow melt and we should see quite a bit of that by evening with exposed areas in the valley losing about everything. The snowfall, I mentioned above, comes Wednesday night with sharply colder temperatures. Mountains can expect 2-4 windblown inches and there should be some talk about flash freezes with temperatures indicated to drop almost 40 degrees in a span of a few hours. This airmass will come and go, but it is ferocious and will bring temperatures back to the single numbers by early Thursday on the mountain accompanied by gusty west winds. March will thus come in like a lion with near 10 degree temperatures to start Friday before readings quickly warm to near 40 thanks to full sunshine and winds shifting to a more more mild southerly direction.</p><p>Upwards of 3 50-degree days are possible in the period beginning Saturday, March 2nd and ending Wednesday, March 6th. This forecast applies to higher elevation areas of course and base areas could certainly see temperatures hit 60 multiple times over this time frame. The extent of warm weather during the day will likely depend on the amount of sunshine we receive. Rainfall is expected to stay away for the upcoming weekend but will become a risk again by the middle of next week. </p><p>The AO is expected to neutralize as by as early as March 5th and the longer range outlook shows a more blocked downstream environment. The coldest weather in North America is still favored over Alaska and the western part of the North American continent for the middle part of March though there is more evidence that New England will see less milder weather after March 8th. A conflicting set of fundamental indicators isn't enough to produce a miracle March recovery, its simply too late in the season for that. The outlook does look stormier however and perhaps we can neutralize the Pacific a bit further after March 10th and make some magic. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-79431963618471973802024-02-23T15:08:00.001-05:002024-02-23T15:08:07.668-05:00Winter will shift its focus westward as mild pattern prepared to dominate New England through the first 10 days of March <p>It's admittedly more challenging to forge ahead with blogging efforts with a not so promising weather pattern staring us down in the face. Unless we get saved by the middle or later part of March, this season, which started with so much promise in November, is set to mostly fall apart on us. We certainly didn't get any help from our recent storm Thursday night, which under-performed and wasn't expected to do that much to begin with. Some incoming arctic air for the weekend will retreat northward just as quickly as it arrived and will <u>not</u> be accompanied by the typical round of accumulating snow showers. And then we have a torch for the middle part of next week which has some ugly characteristics I could do without (at least until later in the spring). </p><p>Even as this warm pattern gets better established over eastern North America, cold arctic air will actually be building and expanding across western North America centered over Alaska and the Yukon. These regions are setup for a bitterly cold finish to February and first half of March. Further south, ski country across the west appears promising in early March as well with storminess in the Pacific bringing moisture to both the central and southern Rocky Mountain regions as well as the Sierra Nevada. None of this bodes well for ski areas in the east however. Vermont is set up to have a chilly Saturday with temperatures on the mountain hovering in the low teens accompanied by gusty winds. Winds will shift on Sunday out of milder southwesterly direction and help modify temperatures to near 30 degrees. The later part of Saturday appears to feature some Sunshine and this is expected to carry through Sunday when conditions become more comfortable. </p><p>The fierce mild intrusion next week appears short-lived, but very damaging. I'll get to that in a bit. New snow, if we get it over the next week appears most likely Sunday night from a disturbance receding into Quebec. I am not optimistic on this feature delivering, but it will manage to delay the big influx of warmth by a day. Following a mostly cloudy and near 40-degree early spring-like day on Tuesday, stronger southerly winds will push temperatures toward 50 by Wednesday morning and near 60 in some valley areas as the day progresses. Dewpoints will climb well into the 40's and a period of rain appears to be a virtual certainty at some points. This combination of weather conditions will be damaging to snow conditions even though colder weather is expected to arrive Thursday evening. The rain doesn't appear especially heavy as of now or pose a flood risk and I can keep the door open that precipitation will change to a period of snow Wednesday night, but support for this is tepid right now. </p><p>The return of colder weather on our leap year day of February 29th represents a very small piece of the intense chill that will be mostly bottled up in western North America for the first 10 days of March. Once again, the cold weather, though intense for a day on Thursday will quickly recede and give way to more early spring-like conditions for the first full weekend in March. This is a broad well-defined pattern which will favor mild weather across New England and much of eastern Canada while cold weather is very focused on western Canada and Alaska. Every single teleconneciton indicator is expected to turn strongly unfavorable over the next week which will help bring this pattern on. By March 10th however, the teleconnection indices neutralize and in the case of NAO/AO are indicated to turn slightly favorable. I have yet to see evidence that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event will have a material impact on how the polar vortex might impact North America. There is harder evidence however of less mild weather after the 10th and an increased potential for storminess. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-72366624378573275742024-02-21T11:38:00.002-05:002024-02-21T11:38:33.684-05:00Elevation sensitive snowfall Thursday night into early Friday and a mostly wintry weekend even though warm pattern looms <p>Across the entirety of the United States, February seems destined to finish as the warmest on record, powered largely by unprecedented warmth in the middle of the United States, especially the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. Hard to find silver linings in a month like this yet there are some, including increased amounts of sunshine and the lack of rainfall. Vermont has also not been at the center of the warmth and will probably avoid having the distinction of recording the warmest month ever. The statistical semantics aside, February of 2018 stands out as my least favorite in a winter where we saw a lot a lot of early season snow and cold melt away, only to be replaced eventually by one of the most epic March's ever. We need another such March to bring this winter if we are to move this winter out of the "dud" category. </p><p>One thing we have had is some wintry weekends and we get another one to finish off the month of February. We won't get a big storm to materialize this Friday, as expected, but clouds will replace the recent stretch of sunshine on Thursday and an extended period of light snow is expected Thursday night into Friday morning. Valley areas can expect the snow to be of a damp consistency and this is likely to extend to the base of MRG. Slightly colder temperatures are expected closer to the summit areas where the snow will be drier and should continue to fall through noon Friday. I expect 3-7 inches out of this 12 or so hour snowfall event with the range accounting for the elevation sensitivity of the event and the lingering uncertainty as to how much moisture can get pushed into northern New England more generally. I don't expect wind speed to be an issue on most of the mountain Friday, but the directionally speaking, prevailing southeast is typically the one of concern for the single chair. Winds will become northwesterly late Friday evening into Saturday and remain pretty strong bringing a brief period of very intense chill to northern Vermont. I would expect temperatures to remain below 10 on Saturday on most of the mountain with winds chills well below zero. One might additional snow from snow showers late Friday into early Saturday, but this cold appears undercutting in nature providing a stable boundary layer and putting a hard lid on convection. Though we are in the midst of a warm pattern to finish the month of February, Saturday will be one of the coldest skiable days of the season so prepare yourself accordingly. Weather conditions will be very different Sunday following a chilly near zero start to the day. Southwesterly winds will boost temperatures up to near 30 and indications are that we will receive some decent sunshine.</p><p>I can't speak much for next week if you like wintry weather. Were I to talk about weather in Alaska, I could write about both blizzards and extreme cold. The recent run of big -PDO winters have brought some decent chill to the 49th state and when they get cold often times we are not. Monday will see temperatures creep above the freezing mark but my concern is for Wednesday, Thursday or both when there is a risk of excessive temperatures and rainfall. </p><p>In the longer range, there's been some talk about a Sudden Stratospheric Warming disrupting what appears right now to be a mild outlook for the month of March. The SSW occurring now has been linked to disruptions in the polar vortex in the troposphere capable of bringing large scale outbreaks of arctic air southward to mid latitude climates. The cutting edge research relating to this phenomenon has been very intriguing, but SSW events have not been reliably predictive because results have varied for each event. Basing the outlook exclusively on ensemble guidance continues to reveal a mild outlook for the first 10 or so days of March. This pattern is likely to breakdown regardless of the impacts of SSW after that, though its difficult to say if we will experience a full reemergence of winter and another big March 13-15th storm that has become tradition in recent winters. <br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-27807961017805134222024-02-19T08:08:00.002-05:002024-02-19T08:08:41.845-05:00Bluebird weather through Wednesday and less potential for late this week <p> The snow drought was broken the past several day with over a foot of new snow falling over a 3-4 day period. Even Sunday the clipper system on Sunday night, which passed deep into Quebec manage to deposit a few inches of snow for Monday as a cool, dry high pressure center builds across the region. We've got three bluebird days lined up for the start of the upcoming week and though we are still running a bit behind for the month in the snowfall department, at least the sun has returned for this month. Monday and Tuesday will feature light winds with chilly sub-10 degree morning temperatures warming to the 20's each afternoon. Wednesday will start out in the single numbers as well before stronger southerly winds boost temperatures into the 30's. Snow conditions should stay dry even on Wednesday thanks to lower dewpoints, at least on most of the mountain. </p><p>We've been keeping our eye on the potential snow for late week for a good while now. Unfortunately the trends haven't been optimal with the hypothetical storm exhibiting some "failure to launch" issues. This is something the Euro model and ensemble have been showing for a few days, basically pushing a disorganized area of southern stream moisture eastward out over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean while an incoming push of polar energy manages to squash the whole thing before any storm materializes. Other model simulations have been indicating a more promising outcome and have continued to do so as of early Monday though they also have moved in the wrong direction. I am hopeful the polar jet impulse can at least provide a burst of snow late Friday or Friday night ahead of the last weekend of February but I would certainly like to convey in this update that our chances for big snow in this time frame have taken a hit. We can expect clouds to increase Thursday with milder temperatures followed by some wet snow early Friday and then a cold and blustery Saturday with temperatures falling back into the teens and 20's. Another clipper system will bring clouds and some light snow back to the region Sunday night, but both ski days this weekend appear generally free of accumulating snow. </p><p>Longer range ensembles have moved toward a slightly less bad outcome for late February and early March with the American GFS /Canadian model and its accompanying ensembles indicating much more in the way of storminess as opposed to warmth. The Euro ensemble continues to pound away at the mild outlook for early March. All of the varying solutions indicate a big modification in temperatures early next week and a few spring like days somewhere around our leap year day of February 29th. By the first full weekend in March, there are some indications that potential storminess could get slightly interesting and teleconnections indices which will certainly turn universally unfavorable for the last few days of February, clearly neutralize by March 2nd or 3rd. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-66282133435170853332024-02-15T14:26:00.003-05:002024-02-15T14:26:48.013-05:00Excellent short term outlook with snow falling through Saturday and not such a great longer term outlook with the eventual breadown of cold weather support late in the month ! <p>Wintry conditions have returned to northern Vermont and will be enhanced by a decent snow event Thursday night into Friday. I am not a fan of how the weather pattern appears to be evolving late this month and into early March and I will share all those details in a bit, but for the next 10 days, we should have some excitement and mostly sub-freezing temperatures. </p><p>Snow Thursday evening is mostly light, very fluffy and capable of accumulating a few inches before dawn on Friday. As winds become more northwesterly during the ski day, the snow shower situation appears fantastic, perhaps the best of the season from a low level instability standpoint. The corridor from Sugarbush northward to Smuggs appears positioned to benefit the most from the northwest winds with snow fairly continuous throughout the ski day at varying intensity along with blustery winds. Wind speeds, won't be as intense as Wednesday though still strong enough to bring wind chill temperatures below zero at times with actual temperatures holding around 20. I expect 2-4 inches of snow prior to the ski day Friday and another 4-8 during and after the ski day Friday. Both the low level instability and prevailing flow appear supportive for additional snow showers on Saturday as well. Southern stream moisture will not impact northern New England or any part of Vermont and a miner snow event in Pennsylvania and New Jersey will act as a slight force to suppress snow showers to the north. Still, the instability is strong enough for an additional 2-4 inch accumulation Friday night into Saturday and its all powder with temperatures Saturday holding in the teens. Not bad ! </p><p>The snow showers will finally abate Sunday and temperatures will warm from the single numbers to near 30. A second clipper system is poised to bring clouds back to Vermont later Sunday with accumulating snow most likely from Stowe northward Sunday night. Mad River Glen appears to be in the 1-2 inch category with this feature, which is passing a bit too far to our north for a significant impact to occur. This clipper system on Sunday night is going to bring some of the coldest air of the season to a large portion of Quebec, though the core of this cold air is indicated to remain mostly in Canada rather than plunge southward into New England. It's been the story of this El Nino winter, a season where the cold air seems to be on the losing end of every battle from the Great Lakes eastward and unless you reside in Alasaka, mild air has generally prevailed everywhere else in the continent as well. The rapid breakdown of this blocking pattern next week downstream over Greenland underscores this description most of all. Less than a week ago, this blocking was expected to be a fundamental support mechanism for a more sustained stretch of colder/wintry weather for the east coast and expectations have now evolved to a point where the cold predicted to position itself over Quebec early next week, quickly moves east over southern Greenland late in the week, erasing any of the blocking once predicted to be positioned there. Thankfully, the wintry outlook has tenuously held on for northern Vermont. Temperatures are expected to remain well below the freezing mark through early Wednesday and some warm advection / overunning snowfall (light) is possible Wednesday or Thursday. </p><p>Ensembles indicate an interesting situation for late next week/ last weekeend in February with an amplifying jet stream in eastern North America and strengthening low pressure coming out of the Ohio Valley. All three ensembles indicate a strong signal for a storm system with much of the cold air support in the rear of the storm powered by the digging jet stream. Temperatures appear mild at the start of this event but certainly supportive for snowfall both Friday evening and Saturday. Windy and very chilly conditions appear likely for at least part of the weekend in question with cold weather prevailing through Monday February 26th. </p><p>Beyond Monday February 26th, the weather pattern appears to entirely break down in terms of being supportive of cold wintry weather. The Pacific appears angry driving both the EPO and PNA into unfavorable territory with the AO/NAO remaining mildly unsupportive. Its not a good recipe for natural snowfall so late in the season anywhere in New England. Yes, this could put the best part of the season to bed, but I was encouraged with the continued weakening of El Nino combined with the neutralizing PDO. Both these features have made life tough for lovers of cold arctic air in North America and a weaker version of both provide some tertiary encouragement for winter to return sometime during the 2nd two-thirds of March. <br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-42646485480919726752024-02-13T10:13:00.002-05:002024-02-13T10:13:24.828-05:00The 5-day snowfall outlook looks good even though our recent whiff was painful <p>We whiffed on Tuesday's east coast snow event and I have some concerns about how the weather pattern might evolve very late in February into early March. This constitutes the "bad news" section of the outlook and although I spend sometime expanding on those late month concerns, much of the next two weeks and especially the next 5 days looks promising. </p><p>With the big east coast storm quickly exiting stage right and arctic cold building across the region on northwest flow, the door will get flung open for a round of snow showers. The early morning hours on Wednesday will feature most of the accumulating snow, but lighter snow showers will linger into the ski day and the high country is set up to break its snow drought and receive 2-5 inches while accumulations will be less than 2 in valley areas. The snow early on Wednesday is the first of 3 opportunities for new snow over the next 5 days, all of it falling in a cold powdery consistency. The 2nd of these opportunities comes from a hybrid type clipper system Thursday evening into early Friday. I'll call it a clipper because some of the energy stems from the amplifying polar jet though some pacific moisture will attach itself to this and will help create a productive snow event for us. The synoptic snow will fall Thursday evening and amount to a few inches while snow showers appear likely through much of the day Friday. 6-12 inches would be my first guess at accumulations for MRG over the 24-hour period beginning Thursday evening. Daytime temperatures should remain in the teens and twenties Wednesday through Friday with single digit readings early Thursday. Those looking for sun, have the opportunity to see some early Thursday before clouds increase and thicken throughout the day. </p><p>Storm or I should say, snow opportunity number 3 comes Saturday and appears most uncertain. I spoke about the lurking southern branch energy/moisture that may or not get totally involved in the east coast weather situation this weekend. If it does, as the GFS model suggests, we could be looking at snow from a legit storm. Assuming it doesn't, another clipper system is likely to bring some additional accumulating snowfall followed by one of the colder ski days of the season Sunday with temperatures potentially hovering in the teens. </p><p>Models have backed off on the idea of a widespread outbreak of arctic cold for the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic areas next week though interior New England is indicated to remain wintry with frigid temperatures either lurking close by in eastern Canada or making an intrusion into Vermont sometime around February 22. The middle part of the week remains the period that has the best next opportunity for snowfall though models are not showing any big storm potential as of early Tuesday. Though the intensity of the cold remains a little uncertain later in the week, I would expect are sub-freezing stretch to continue through the week and the last weekend of February (24th & 25th).Those looking for new snow are likely going to see some although specifics continue to look cluttered and changing every day given the presence of the polar jet. </p><p>The cold weather is indicated to soften after February 25th. The AO is expected to neutralize by then, but my bigger concern is the Pacific which is looking angrier and is likely to focus more cold and snowfall on the west. That doesn't necessarily point toward a dire situation for northern New England and a big snowfall is not out of the question in the final days of February or early March. Temperatures however, should get milder thanks both to a shifting jet stream and the longer late February and early March days. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p> <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-60614724563479417442024-02-11T11:27:00.003-05:002024-02-11T11:27:50.592-05:00Only light snow out of Tuesday's winter storm but both cold and snowfall dominate the outlook for the next two weeks <p> We've seen some expected northward shifting with Tuesday's winter storm, now projected to move offshore in southern New Jersey rather than the Virginia Tidewater. This places Mad River Glen at the northern edge of accumulating snow Tuesday and puts southern Vermont in some of the heaviest snow with ski areas there now expected to get around a foot. This is one of the stronger storms of the season and certainly capable of delivering over two feet over a broad swath of New England with the low pressure area expected to deepen to near 980 mb south of Cape Cod. The storm's movement is mostly east in this instance and is moving quickly allowing most of the heavy snow to end before the end of the day Tuesday. Light snow should begin before dawn Tuesday, persist for several hours during the ski day and end by early afternoon with 1-4 inches expected. More northward shifting is certainly possible and would bring us into heavier snowfall. For now, the sweetspot begins in southern Vermont and extends southward through the Berkshires and northwest Connecticut and westward into the Catskills. </p><p>The storm on Tuesday, even if it only grazes us, marks the shift into the colder weather pattern we've been anxiously waiting for and begins an extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. If we get lucky, the high country might avoid any above-freezing temperatures until March though that can be a lot to ask during the higher sun angle days of later February. Temperatures will be in the 20's on Tuesday while the light snow is falling and this will be accompanied by gusty north to northeast winds. Wednesday will also be a little blustery with intervals of sunshine to go along with occasional snow showers. With the storm on Tuesday departing so quickly, Wednesday's snow showers don't appear to be a nothing burger, especially in the morning and is likely to yield a small accumulation. Winds are expected to diminish Thursday and at least half the day should be bluebird material with temperatures starting in the single numbers and rising to 20. </p><p>There will be several chances for snow in the coming two weeks. The first comes Thursday evening from a clipper system poised to bring cold air reinforcements for the weekend. Snow from this more benign system could begin as early as Thursday evening and should bring at least a few inches for the ski day Friday. Though snow from the clipper system is only likely to bring a light accumulation of 1-3 inches, additional snow showers on Friday should bring more. Being that it remains 4-5 days out, we can expect some changes as the nuts and bolts of this setup become clearer. </p><p>With our collection of teleconnection indices (AO, NAO, PNA and EPO) favoring cold weather for the next 10 days, with some favoring cold through the duration of the month, there will be plenty of opportunities for snow and it will at times be a bit difficult to identify beyond a few days out. The upcoming week is a good case in point with snow now appearing more likely now on Wednesday and Friday even if we do miss the bulk of Tuesday's winter storm. El Nino is weakening, but remains prevalent and is expected to send a bunch of southern stream energy toward the east coast for the weekend of February 17th and 18th. With the polar jet reemerging as a force in this equation, models will have a difficult time accurately sorting through the many interactions. Next weekend is one example and a storm is certainly capable of getting churned up in this time frame. Another potential big east coast storm is then possible sometime around February 20th or 21st and this could help usher in some of the coldest weather of the season for northern New England in its wake. Speaking locally, our biggest obstacle is that the aforementioned teleconnection indicators are TOO aligned and might suppress some of the heaviest snowfall. With Lake Champlain almost entirely unfrozen, opportunities will continue to show up even if we miss on the big storm potential. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-29597977750872085692024-02-09T10:44:00.002-05:002024-02-09T10:44:40.140-05:00Need some northward shifting to turn Tuesday's system into a big snowfall for northern Vermont <p>We've had Colorado-type weather over the northern Vermont high country with chilly nights, warm afternoons, to go along with low wind and low dewpoints. The visibility and blue sky have been spectacular, but weather patterns are fluid, especially in New England and we are about to experience some changes. The clouds on Friday shouldn't limit visibility too much and the higher south southwest winds are expected to remain just above the surface which will help keep temperatures closer to 40 degrees during the afternoon instead of soaring to 50 and beyond. Winds are expected to pick up a little on Saturday which will help boost temperatures into the 40's, but models aren't suggesting a big mix down of record breaking warmth or an intense version of snow eating winds; instead, a cloudy mild day is followed by a short-lived burst of rain amounting to less than a tenth of an inch. By Sunday morning, any rain will become light snow as temperatures fall back toward the freezing mark and hold there through much of the day. </p><p>We will be understandably hungry for some new snow following Saturday's warmth which makes the weather system on Tuesday of vital importance. I promised we would have more clarity on this storm by now and I will try and provide as much as I can. Low pressure will move quickly out of east Texas on Sunday and continue to intensify as it approaches the Virginia tidewater area Monday evening. We remain very much in play for this storm but we need northward shifting if we are to receive any material snowfall. The Euro ensembles which had been reliably consistent, showing some impact for most of the state have shifted southward and are now contributing to a model consensus that would suggest a minimal impact for the MRV. We've seen this movie many times and I don't see mechanism present to slam the door on a northward shift, yet I also want to convey what the model data is illustrating now - a 1-4 inch event during the day Tuesday. Once this strengthening storm exits, a colder temperature regime will better establish itself and it certainly appears as if Tuesday could be the start of a very extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. More on that in a paragraph below. For the rest of next week, there's a chance some moisture could wrap in from the north underneath all the downstream blocking and enhance as it it encounters the mountains. Worth keeping an eye on that and a potential clipper system ushering in a reinforcing and stronger version of colder air for the weekend of the 17th and 18th. The southern branch remains of the jet is also indicated to remain active and could always get involved, but the prevailing storm track, for the time being does appear south of us between Valentine's Day and Sunday February 18th. </p><p>Forecasters have backed away from the extreme cold scenarios that were indicated for the back half of February. Ensembles never really conclusively showed such an outcome, but that didn't stop the hype. That said, the weather pattern continues to look wintry and supportive of more snowfall at least through Sunday February 26th and perhaps beyond. The coldest period occurs around the President's Day holiday weekend and I do expect at least a minimal amount of snowfall in this time frame. After that it will just be a question of if and win we can get one of these big southern streaming systems to evolve into a big east coast snow producer. The odds are pretty good one will given the availability of some cold air and the downstream blocking support being provided by the -NAO. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-36756488367923014072024-02-06T15:48:00.001-05:002024-02-06T15:48:17.328-05:00Fun times ahead after a mild upcoming weekend <p> Mad River Glen is enjoying the best stretch of blue sky in months, though we could certainly use a bit of natural snow and instead we are about to get hit with some milder weather. Fortunately the incoming thaw looks ordinary and short-lived. We have a few early March-like afternoons coming our way with temperatures climbing just above the freezing mark at the base Wednesday, Thursday and Friday while below normal temperatures continue to prevail during the overnights. Some sunshine will mix with intervals of cloudiness Wednesday and Thursday and then clouds appear more prevalent for Friday. Saturday is our mild day with temperatures climbing up into the 40's at lower elevations and near 40 in summit areas. The rainfall appears very minimal Saturday evening and is likely to total around a quarter inch if that, and some of that precipitation will mix with or even turn to a period of snow above 3,000 feet. </p><p>I've been watching closely with how models continue to handle a potential storm early next week and my head already hurts. Models have just been all over the place over the past 48 hours. A Euro run on Monday showed a rain producing inland runner and subsequent models today have shifted the storm well south of us and suggesting Vermont will see a minimal impact. The most recent American model did not show a particularly optimal jet configuration because the storm is not given the chance to intensify near the coast before getting ejected out over the open water. The operational Euro Tuesday afternoon wasn't exactly stellar either, but the the Euro Ensemble continue to indicate the possibility for a decent period of snow late Monday Feb 12th into Feb 13th while the Canadian Ensembles hint at this to a lesser extent. Over the next 24 hour, I think we will have much more clarity on whether this potential completely fizzles or not. </p><p>An excellent combination of teleconnection indices will drive the weather pattern beginning around Valentines Day and continuing for most of the back half of February. Any lover of winter weather needs to develop an affinity for a negative Arctic Oscillation, a key driving force for ensuring an optimal storm track and an available supply of colder air. We have that and it's expected to remain with us through at least later February, at times reaching -2 which is pretty impressive. The -AO will be joined by ridging at high latitudes both in western North America and over the Davis Strait. This combination will very much reduce the risk for any rainfall or any prolonged thawing during the back half of February; in fact, all three of these features might work to keep some potential storm action south of Vermont, a problem we haven't really dealt with since the Super Nino winter of 2016 and many of the 5 winters prior to that. A big force that could counteract the suppression of storminess is the ferocious looking southern stream. The current El Nino, though already peaked, is still expected to feature a robust looking southern branch of the jet stream which will, in my opinion, limit the intensity of any arctic cold and provide many areas with snow potential a few times. It should be a fun ride after we get through the bout of milder air Saturday ! <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-83611971852126665972024-02-04T13:10:00.000-05:002024-02-04T13:10:12.657-05:00Mild 3-day period Thursday to Saturday before stars align for an outstanding 2nd half of February <p>Hope everyone enjoyed their bluebird Sunday whatever you all decided to do. We've got a few more of these days lined up this upcoming week. Monday features very little cloud cover though it will be chilly thanks to a stiff northerly winds that appears likely to gust well past 20 mph on the mountain. The wind will bring wind chill temperatures below zero at times on Monday though actual temperatures should rise into the 20's. Temperatures are expected to moderate Tuesday and into Wednesday with winds gradually lessening. Higher resolution models bring some low clouds into valley areas on Tuesday and more so on Wednesday but the midday and afternoon periods feature sunshine. </p><p>A milder period of weather remains in the cards beginning late this week and lasting through the weekend of February 10th and 11th. There's some good news in that the Thursday mild weather appears to be powered more by sun and certainly not by wind or rain. Temperatures on Thursday will warm up past 40 though the bright blue sky will have the effect of making it feel warmer. Friday and Saturday appear cloudier and the best we can probably do in this above-freezing 35-45 degree period is to limit both the wind and the rain which as of now appears to be the most likely outcome. Snowpack in the MRV is often most damaged by strong southwesterly winds and it appears we can keep those away from surface areas even as some light rain is falling later Saturday. Colder weather and snow showers is expected to return for Sunday and this begins a much more productive stretch of weather for northern Vermont ski country I believe ! </p><p>Even as the clouds and mild temperatures win the early part of the upcoming next weekend, key teleconection indices will continue to align themselves for a very favorable 2nd half of February. The two specific items we can point our binoculars at right now would be the next chance for some snowfall from a potential storm on February 12th or 13th (A Monday and Tuesday) and then an eventual return of some below normal temperatures by the Friday February 16th into the weekend of the 17th and 18th. Everything else appears too blurry in a specific sense, but in a general sense it appears to be an outstanding period of storminess loaded with potential. There's been talk on social media circles of extreme cold and though I think that's possible over a short span of time, the pattern, in this decaying but still strong El Nino environment appears better from the standpoint of snowfall. I expect we should have plenty to discuss relating to snow and the potential for more snow beginning with aforementioned system projected to arrive February 12th and lasting through most of the rest of the month. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-10683455292483978082024-02-02T14:02:00.003-05:002024-02-02T14:02:35.226-05:00Some sun Saturday, a lot more Sunday and a nice stretch of wintry temps for early next week ahead of a mini thaw <p>Okay, so it's Friday afternoon and I see you breaks in the overcast at the Gate House Plaza. And I see you too - skiers at the top of Heaven's Gate getting trying to get a little Friday afternoon sun tan. Then there's the base of Mad River Glen stuck with visibility of about 200 feet in low clouds and fog. It's comical ! </p><p>The sun is coming however, I am still saying it. Just a few intervals on Saturday that should include a sunset late in the day to go along with the sub-freezing 25-30 temperatures. The northerly winds of 10-20 mph on the upper mountain will keep wind chill temperatures lower and are also pushing in the drier air that will help mix out the stubborn low level moisture and decrease the cloudiness. The clear skies will help temperatures drop to near 10 Saturday night but a mostly sunny ski on Sunday will help temperatures recover to the 30 day mark. Its bluest sky we will have seen in two weeks and it's expected to continue Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with a similar range of temperatures that begin within a few degrees of 10 and rise to near 30 (Monday's temps are likely to top out only around 25 with strong northerly winds). The early part of next week is certainly appears to be a real nice stretch of traditional winter weather as we continue to remain an active participant in the North American torch avoidance program. The upper Midwest and central Canada will continue to be incredibly warm in this time frame. Unfortunately, our eligibility to remain part of this aforementioned program appears ready to expire as we move toward Friday of next week. Thursday is also expected to feature a mild afternoon but it continues to appear dry which is certainly good news. </p><p>Some sort of thaw late next week that includes wet weather appears more likely either Friday February 9th or Saturday the 10th. That said, there was certainly evidence on several of the computer simulations that we can avoid disaster. Even the European and Canadian model which have been competing to simulate the mildest outcome in this time frame have moved to limit the thawing Friday into Saturday. There's still some rain indicated, but for now it appears less than a half inch and doesn't include the wind and high dewpoints that just eat away at snow in a short span of time. Snow showers are also indicated as a possibility as the weekend progresses though temperatures are only expected to cool toward the freezing mark. </p><p>One by one, we are lining up the teleconnection indices necessary for a wintry second half of February. The AO is expected to turn negative by later next week and once its joined by a building +PNA structure in the jet stream, things will get much more interesting. For the week of February 12th - 16th, temperatures are likely to stay on the mild side as arctic air slowly rebuilds over Canada. Even without the arctic air over New England, interior sections are set up for some snow potential from storminess followed by a period of colder temperatures more likely by the weekend of February 17th and 18th and perhaps beyond. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-80650864499123566992024-01-31T14:39:00.001-05:002024-01-31T14:39:14.561-05:00Clouds fail to break until the weekend with only a light accumulation of snow expected <p> I've actually been keeping score in a little spreadsheet at home and have logged 24 out of 31 days with clouds for the month of January. I certainly hoped to see some of those low clouds periodically break this week and so far that has been a big fail. I still think sunnier times lay ahead this weekend and early next week, but man they don't make this easy. </p><p>Higher resolution models show clouds remaining in place for Thursday, keeping temperatures just below the freezing mark on most of the mountain. At least those clouds should produce a bit of light snow for us Thursday evening, night and Friday morning. It's enough to produce an inch or two of light snow by the start of the ski day Friday, but winds appear to remain more northerly limiting the moisture from Lake Champlain thus putting a lower ceiling on accumulations. The other limiting factor for snow Friday is an area of enhanced lower pressure south of Long Island. This is likely to produce some early morning rain and snow for them but puts a lid on the moisture over us. I think we see flurries for a while on Friday with those accumulations remaining in the lighter 1-2 inch category. I expect some blue sky and maybe even a sunset for Friday evening as the storminess departs and northwest flow at jet stream level ushers in more dry air. </p><p>What about that sunshine for the weekend ? We still have what should be a sunny start to Saturday before clouds from a very weak clipper system to our east threaten to bring at least an interval of cloudiness (see I am moving the goalposts already). Sunday, Monday and Tuesday all appear to feature sunshine with the monster, mostly rain producing southern streamer staying well to our south. I actually noticed a bit of a northward shift with this feature but the storm is expected to stay well offshore and not have a significant impact on our weather though we will continue to watch it. </p><p>As next week progresses, it is again likely the grow cloudier with moderating temperatures. Readings are likely to stay well below the freezing mark and not far from seasonable levels to start the week and later in the week we can expect a stretch of above freezing temperatures. Models are showing more evidence of resistance in the warming later next week which is good news and also suggest that at least some frozen precipitation remains a possibility. After that, there are much clearer indications that the weather pattern fundamentals improve. The Arctic Oscillation is expected to actually turn negative early next week (It's currently a very unfavorable +2) and once this aligns with a positive PNA structure, colder weather is expected to return both the southern Canada and eventually New England. The weekend of the 10th and 11th continues to appear quite mild with colder weather and accompanying storminess returning just before Valentine's Day. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-52334080696720111132024-01-29T15:37:00.000-05:002024-01-29T15:37:02.398-05:00Drier jet stream keeps the snow potential lower and warmer temps west of us over the next week <p> The 3 or so inches of snow that fell Sunday evening was very much needed following the stretch of above freezing temperatures late last week. We now enter a stretch of drier weather aided by a dry jet stream. We are still set up to avoid any excessive warmth through the middle of next week or around February 7th, but we have only one real chance for meaningful snow which i will highlight below and a pipe dream early next week. </p><p>The cloud-cover stuck with us through all of Monday over the Vermont mountains and though we are expecting predominantly dry weather through the ski day Wednesday, sunshine is expected to stay limited though we should see intervals of blue sky. I am prepared to deliver the news that we have the best stretch of sunshine in weeks on the way however, I can almost promise ! Temperatures are expected to remain just below the freezing both on Tuesday and Wednesday and then creep above the freezing mark Thursday even as clouds thicken. </p><p>A clipper system is expected to drop right over the top of us from Quebec Thursday evening and spread some very light and sporadic snow over northern Vermont as it does this. As this system continues to push south and east of us, it will turn winds and provide us with a nice opportunity for snow showers enhanced by our elevation and the unfrozen lake to our west. As we get closer to Friday, I will be able to focus in on stability parameters and better describe the snowfall potential early Friday. One thing we do have a better handle on as of Monday is timing. Snow showers appear likely through early Friday afternoon and then dry air envelops the region thanks in large part to that jet stream I described. If you like bluebird winter days and like them on the weekend, I have good news. Blue sky can be expected both Saturday and Sunday with amazing visibility and afternoon temperatures in the teens and 20's. Though it won't be quite as cold as the weekend of Jan 20th and 21st and certainly sunnier, I would still expect some gusty northwest winds Saturday (20 mph) and sub-zero wind chills. Sunday's winds won't be calm either, but a touch friendlier than Saturday. </p><p>The bluebird weather appears likely to continue through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. It would take a massive northward shift related to a storm system expected to drench the southeast U.S. Sunday and Monday to disrupt this outlook. Chances are good a northward shift of this magnitude doesn't occur and our stretch of sunshine continues, but one can never say never with these types of events given the absence of a strong polar jet. Assuming it remains sunny in accordance with my current expectations, temperatures will slowly moderate reaching the middle 20's Monday, high 20's Tuesday and near 30 on Wednesday. The clear skies will allow for some chilly overnights early next week and the snow cover puts sub-zero readings in play. </p><p>I love how we've managed to avoid the mid-continent torch through the early part of February, but ensembles are starting to provide us more focus on a period of warmer temperatures around the weekend of February 10th. Interestingly the teleconnection indices start to improve by then and colder air is certainly showing signs of reestablishing itself over Canada even as the east coast warms up. The most encouraging feature by mid February is the appearance of some ridging over western North America and Alaska by the middle of the month. Alaska is in the midst of a vicious cold wave that has largely erased what was a very mild start to the year. A good portion of the state is now below normal for January and the state's largest city, Anchorage, is enjoying a high of 10 degrees Monday with a 36 inch snow pack. Yes, it's Alaska but Mad River Glen averages more snow, similar temperatures and more daylight. Speaking of daylight, our first 5 o'clock sunset comes on February 1st this year, just ahead of our big stretch of expected sunshine. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-6964356385964230962024-01-27T22:49:00.004-05:002024-01-27T22:49:54.408-05:00Another northward shift, another 3-6 inches Sunday evening and more torch avoidance ! <p>Should have known better ! The big known obstacles that often put a lid on northward shifting storms are really not in play late this weekend. No big power polar jet to drive storms offshore or suppress them south and this like many other northward shifting storms, is a well established maturing cyclone that will reestablish itself as a coastal system by Monday morning. It's all good news for powder hounds in the MRV which should see snow falling as the ski day concludes Sunday. The heaviest snow should come over a several hour period during the evening Sunday. Not quite long enough to make this an epic storm of a foot or more, but long enough to make this a solid 3-6 inch event with snow lessening in intensity before dawn Monday and tapering to flurries by the start of the ski day. Temperatures will be a few ticks below freezing as snow begins late Sunday but should fall into the middle 20's by Monday morning and hold in the upper 20's during the ski day with an accompanying gusty north wind keeping wind chills closer to zero and even below at times. </p><p>We have a unique jet stream configuration for the upcoming week and I won't complain. I've talked a lot about the mass expanse of warmth over the central part of North America and it sure is ominous looking yet it won't have much of an impact on Vermont over the next 10 days. Though it won't be cold relative to average over Vermont and the rest of interior New England, the steering currents in the jet stream, aimed at us from the northwest will keep us protected from the ongoing torch in the central part of the continent. This is also a drier jet stream overall and although we will have our chance at some new snow during the first full weekend of February, we should have a lot of days without precipitation and several days that include both sunshine and better visibility. We haven't seen an overwhelming amount of that so far this year or this winter. </p><p>The clearing skies might even arrive as the ski day is ending Monday and the departing storm continues to strengthen offshore. Tuesday appears to be a calm day with several hours of sunshine and temperatures in the lower 20's. Wednesday appears to be similar with a slightly warmer near 30 degree temperatures and a period of cloudiness. That Manitoba mauler I had discussed in the previous post is certainly a big part of the weather map during this period but passing well to our west and then south and ensuring that drier period which should persist through early Thursday. </p><p>A second clipper system dropping right over the top of us late in the week is so far east that it might appropriately be referred to as a Quebec careener. Original name or not it is an interesting system and ensures a colder sub-freezing outlook through next weekend and also brings our best chance for some new snow in the next 10 days (after Sunday night of course). The clipper itself is likely to bring some light snow to us but its passage is also going to bring an opportunity for some Champlain and oragraphic enhanced snows either Friday, Saturday or both. It will be interesting to see how models handle this situation in the coming days but it certainly possible we see some of the best weekend skiing so far this season even as much above normal temperature rage on a few thousand miles to our west. </p><p>Ensembles are dropping major hints of a major league southern streaming storm in the February 4th or 5th period. It's a dream setup for the southern Appalachian Mountains, a region that typically scores a big storm such as this during a sizable El Nino such as this. We have 10 days for potential northward shifting so its never too early to ask though at face value, these same ensembles suggest a dry outlook for Vermont with above normal temperatures but still mostly below freezing across the high country through around February 7th. There are hints that temperatures could creep toward the 40-degree mark toward the 2nd weekend of February, but I am taking a victory lap on avoiding any of this or rain for at least the next 10 days. Go us ! <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-5289453207435768622024-01-25T14:25:00.004-05:002024-01-25T14:25:35.053-05:00Freezing rain changes to a period of snow early Friday while a more promising outlook has emerged for early February <p>A materially better outlook today driven largely by the fact that the warmer trends we keep seeing in the longer range have stopped and in fact reversed. There's also improvements in the shorter term outlook, specifically the part that included all the rain early on Friday. Though the storm responsible for the incoming precipitation will successfully bring near 80-degree to portions of Virginia, it will be the colder air that will win battle for Vermont. Cold enough at least to bring temperatures back toward the freezing mark Friday morning with some light plain rain changing to freezing rain and sleet during the early morning and then eventually changing to snow by 10/11 AM. The snow will be heavy enough to accumulate 2-4 inches before ending Friday evening. Though not a big accumulation, it still represents a remarkable turn in the forecast that once looked both pretty mild and wet. </p><p>The upcoming weekend, the last of the month, looks mild relative to climatology with temperatures in the 30's by day and 20's during the overnights. It also looks dry which is the unfortunate part. Saturday will remain cloudy, but with very calm winds and limited visibility. On Sunday we will watch a large weather system exit the gulf coast and bring lots of moisture toward the eastern seaboard. This is a storm that will need to make a northward shift to bring significant or even any snowfall to northern Vermont and its encountering a jet stream which will certainly try and redirect the strengthening cyclone offshore and to our south. Northward shifts are always possible, especially with southern streamers and a weak polar jet. As of Thursday however, a consensus has certainly emerged to keep the bulk of the snowfall south of northern Vermont. I expect we do see a bit of light snow Sunday evening and a light accumulation before it turns blustery and colder Monday morning. </p><p>It is warm and going on warmer next week across the central part of North America with thawing temperatures surging northward to the northern part of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. On the weather map, the building ridge and mild air associated with it looks like a giant wave ready crash itself into northern New England. At least through next week, that mild air won't make the eastward push and Vermont will remain on the east flank of that ominous warm weather ridge which keeps winter in place and open the door for a few interesting possibilities. Clouds should give way to some sunshine on Monday with blustery north winds bringing temperatures from the teens downward to sub-zero levels by Tuesday morning. Readings should rebound back into the teens during the day Tuesday when a Manitoba mauler type system dives southeastward toward the eastern Great Lakes. Models continue to yield divergent solutions in terms of how this system might impact Vermont, but one very real possibility appears to involve a decent window of Champlain/terrain enhanced powder in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. It is also this system that will reinforce the separation between the very mild air positioned to our west and the more wintry conditions that will prevail over us. There are a few other possibilities with this storm as well and I've seen enough varying potential outcomes to stress that uncertainty remains. </p><p>The midweek Manitoba mauler will help keep sub-freezing conditions over the northern Vermont high country through Groundhog Day, February 2nd. The first weekend of the month appears to be the next instant when all that warmth across the central part of North America tries to push eastward. Though it does appear mild relative to typical climatology, the warmth doesn't appear excessive and only capable of bringing temperatures past the freezing mark at lower elevations during the afternoons. Beyond the first full weekend of February, I was delighted to see more evidence of split flow in the jet stream with the area of mild air across Canada finally weakening. Though I would expect milder than average temperatures to prevail over Vermont for the first 10 days of the month, the new snow potential looks a lot better over the past two days. Lets hope this trend continues ! <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7409219001795425656.post-39783399784547102662024-01-23T09:14:00.003-05:002024-01-23T09:14:34.208-05:00 Milder temperature outlook into early Feb is still at least dotted with some snow or snow potential <p>Not the enviable existence to be a winter weather and snow enthusiast in an outlook consisting of another round of raging warmth covering much of the central part of the North American continent. Vermont and much of interior New England are not positioned to take the brunt of this warmth but our outlook still has both mild temperatures and rain to go along with a possible decent storm late in the weekend. </p><p>We also have some snow in our short term outlook. This begins around midnight Wednesday and should fall lightly but at a steady pace through mid-morning. The overrunning snow does not look especially impressive though we are still positioned well to receive 2-4 inches before precipitations turns to a light freezing drizzle later Wednesday. Another steadier round of precipitation is also expected to fall as some freezing rain Wednesday evening before a milder push of temperatures turns ever it all wet by Thursday morning. Models indicate that clouds will prevail for Thursday, but if the sun breaks for even just a few hours, it will urn into the mildest day of the month with temperatures soaring well into the 40's even on the mountain. Even with the clouds, Thursday will be balmy with above-freezing temperatures all day quickly melting any ice. </p><p>It's a bit disheartening to see arctic air go into this kind of retreat mode even as the Pacific remains reasonably cooperative. El Nino has finally showed clear signs of weakening, cooling a few tenths of a degree celsius in critical equatorial regions and approaching a category defined more as "moderate" as opposed to a "strong" ENSO. Warmth above the 40-degrees north line in North America is a prominant feature in any El Nino and the recent arctic outbreak was a break of from that. Just as the fundamentals became so universally supportive for such an outbreak they have quickly reversed with some of the coldest weather across the northern hemisphere indicated to position itself over Greenland and Alaska over the next 10 days, two regions that have been very warm so far this month. </p><p>Continuing with the shorter range weather picture, more wet weather is expected to approach northern New England Thursday night with rain arriving around midnight Friday in the MRV. No flood risk or huge melt off with this event fortunately. A last second low level cold push will actually try to push temperatures back toward the freezing mark Thursday evening and brings with it a chance for some icing. Recall that this is the event I had more or less thrown in the towel on as far as any hopes of getting snow. It does look like a colder event though and if your geeky enough to keep score at home, 3 degrees C away from some snow Friday morning. For now though the event looks rainy or icy with precipitation ending Friday morning. </p><p>El Nino continues to produce an express train of storminess with another event lined up for Saturday night into Sunday. Though I am a little concerned the jet stream might confine the action to our south, at least this is a snow or no situation in Vermont and potentially a good one if it all breaks right with the storm track. As of Tuesday morning, the prospects for such an event certainly were improved and I would put the chances of a decent snow event at about 40 percent. A few days of sub-freezing temperatures follow this potential storm on Sunday carrying us through the rest of January before we are yet again challenged by the raging warmth to our west. I am pretty convinced the first 10 days of February will consist of well above normal temperatures and around 2 forty degree temperature days. I was a little more encouraged to see more signs of split flow in the ensemble data and this keeps us in the game to to speak to churn up a decent storm even with the limited cold. <br /></p>Joshua Foxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06996165708432095542noreply@blogger.com0