The Single Chair Weather Blog

Ugh, two potential storms look dead

2012-01-31T23:23:00.005-05:00

During the last update I had actually tried to reign in my excitement over what I thought could be an epic three weeks on the single beginning in early February. It was a very enthusiastic but non-specific update a few days ago. At that time models had indicated upwards of 4 significant snow events in a 10-12 day stretch. Within a day of that update, models had eliminated almost all of it and indicated a weather pattern not nearly as productive. I try really hard not to get overly theological regarding the "kiss of death" and then something like that happens and suggests that perhaps I would be better served blogging about the inevitable "doom and gloom" of this winter.

Is it really that bad ? No. We still only expect one "thaw" day Wednesday before temperatures turn colder but we lost the shot at a storm late in the week. Much of that energy will get held back in the western plains and that is where some of our problems begin. The failure of that system to phase with some of the incoming polar energy this weekend creates a disjointed jet stream rather than a clearly amplified pattern. When the western plains storm finally ejects itself into the Midwest, it will get shunted southward by a polar jet that will have already played its hand.

Overall though the pattern will be highly "blocked" for the next two weeks. The ridge across western North American will develop as advertised and allow a continuous throng of cold shots into New England to keep it wintry (although models have backed off on the intensity of the cold). Snow-wise however we are probably a week or so away from a potential powder producer. The weekend should stay mainly high, dry and seasonable. Not a bad one to be outside but at this point I would expect little or no fresh powder. By the middle of next week we should have a clipper that could yield some of the good stuff. This will be followed by a surge of colder temperatures and potentially a more organized storm system prior to the weekend of the 9th and 10th.

Still a relatively good stretch of weather, but I want more and am not happy with the way things are trending.

No more consolation prizes, pattern looking golden by the weekend

2012-01-29T23:16:00.004-05:00

It is now just a few days away. A few days and things should really start to get interesting at MRG. Two months of trying to make the most of a mostly lousy weather pattern and finally as we move toward February the stars align. The jet energy across the Pacific Northwest will undergo a complete collapse over the next week allowing a large ridge to develop across the western United States. Even better, this ridge will extend northward over western Canada right along 135 west ultimately reaching the polar regions. It is a development that should make us ecstatic since not too many weather features can make me as happy. The ridge across the west will eventually combine forces with another large ridge across over Greenland. Hopefully, the whole thing just turns into one big "high latitude block party". All the cold and snow can descend into the mid-latitudes and do so for an extended period of time.

There is a lot of potential over the next 2-3 weeks. Clippers, East Coast bombs, Gulf of Mexico monsters. We have the potential for all of it and we have earned it since we have certainly done enough time in the can this winter. I won't get too specific with this update. There is some powder to ski Monday and the push of warm air Wednesday will have an inch or two of snow preceding it on Tuesday. The Wednesday warmth however is a one day event. One afternoon of above freezing temps before the talk shifts to snow and eventually cold. Our first potential storm comes from a southern Rockies weather system that will push through the Midwest Thursday. Models are all over the place with this system. The Euro shows a nice hit Friday for most of Vermont but there are a few contrary opinions. As this new and much more amplified weather pattern begins to take shape over the weekend of the 4th and 5th, the chances for powder start coming from everywhere and very frequently. For example, several model runs have a Gulf of Mexico low pressure area blowing up and evolving into a massive snow producer in the Sunday/Monday time frame. Additional reenforcing amplifications throughout next week will provide more snow possibilities. It should be a good time to be alive in Vermont so as Bob Dylan used to say get busy doing it.

Nice stretch of winter starts around February 3rd

2012-01-26T20:43:00.003-05:00

Rain on top of the freezing rain/sleet on top of a few inches of snow is the process by which concrete is made, or at least that is how I learned it. The 3-inch concrete slab is not exactly ideal when its plastered on top of 40 inches of powder. We don't have 40 inches of powder though so the concrete slab could be the start of the long road back.

Wintry weather should return for the weekend although temperatures will remain on the mild side Saturday. As mentioned in the last update, an eastern North American trough amplification will interrupt the mild pattern for a few days and embedded within this trough are two impulses capable of delivering the mountains some snow. The first rotates through the Great Lakes Saturday and spreads snow showers in the Green Mountains Saturday night. This particular weather feature is probably good for a 1-3 inch dust up but it will drop temperatures back into the 20's for Sunday (from the 30's Saturday). The second feature looks like a more traditional Alberta Clipper. It will bring some snow to MRG Sunday night setting the stage for a chilly but semi-powdery Monday. The system Sunday night has the look of a 2-4 inch event but this could change in the days ahead

I am certainly more encouraged about the way things may play out next week. Arctic chill will be able to maintain its footing through Tuesday morning before milder temperatures make another northward charge. I had advertised the possibility or record warmth a few days ago. That appears a little less likely now but more importantly the recent run of the European model showed the overall mild pattern more or less collapsing on itself late next week under the weight of what could prove to be an intriguing weather feature. I do feel fairly confident overall that ultimately, we will see some critical loosening of the Pacific Jet and a reversal of the PNA by Super Bowl weekend. How fast these changes manifest themselves into some tangible powdery goodness remains a question. There are hints that things could get very interesting along the east coast in the period between the 2nd and 5th of Feb. We have yet to see any real consistency but whispers of an east coast "bomb" began and I hope we can turn this into some real talk.

At the very least however, we should be able to look forward to an exciting 7-10 day stretch of weather beginning around the time of February 3. The PNA will be very supportive and will be coupled with at least some weak high latitude blocking either over Greenland or over the Arctic regions.

Close call Friday but not looking good, weekend still looks wintry

2012-01-24T22:26:00.004-05:00

We are in the midst of a very lousy upper air jet stream pattern. We paid for it Monday with mild temperatures and rain. We will likely pay for it again next week. Friday however remains a close call and the upcoming weekend will mark an interruption from the prevailing theme of the week. Models have had a very difficult time with Friday's system and the forecast has remained in an invariable state of flux for a few days. It looks as of now as if we will get an organized weather system fueled by Gulf moisture arriving Thursday night. There is almost no available cold air in the vicinity thanks to a dominant upper ridge positioned across eastern Canada. There is a little support coming from a polar-pacific impulse. It will dive underneath the Canadian ridge and attempt to inject a little bit of chill along with guiding the storm south of the St Lawrence Valley. It may not be enough in the end but its a close call. Precipitation will begin in the pre-dawn hours Friday and persist through a good part of the day. My guess right now is for an event consisting of sleet, freezing rain and some rain but it is close and a small change could improve the forecast. Areas north of Smuggs stand a better chance of getting some snow out of this system.

The weekend does mark a break from the madness of the mild air. We should get albeit temporary but significant east coast trough amplification. The result will be more seasonable and even below normal temperatures but it should also mean snow showers later in the day Saturday into Saturday night. The best chance for a powder day would be Sunday. I woudn't expect epic snow but a few inches is certainly possible.

The cold weather will persist through Monday but we will again see the reemergence of a dominant upper ridge that spans all of eastern North America. The coupling of Pacific energy and trough over Alaska and the ridging in the mid-latitude Pacific is just killing us. It is causing Pacific air to run the country over and in this case it will trigger record warmth across parts of the east coast and quite possible interior New England by the middle of next week.

Fortunately the winter thaw does appear to have an end on the horizon. By about the time of Super Bowl weekend there is evidence of a loosening of the Jet in the Pacific and a re-positioning of the ridge over North America farther west. This will allow the PNA index to go from highly unfavorable to favorable while the North Atlantic oscillation remains slightly favorable with slight evidence of blocking over Greenland. I know it hurts but keep the faith, we still have time to save the Presidents day holiday and beyond.

Speaking of the Super Bowl, we have a Giants vs Pats rematch which I am sure many loyal MRG skiers against one another. It was a game for the ages last time and I fully expect another one this go around. What I will never forget about 2008 however was the incredible rally we got in the weather in the week that followed Super Bowl 42. It looked for all the world that we would get 2 days of rain 40 degree temperatures. Suddenly, the Giants upset the Pats and just as dramatically the weather forecast shifted. Arctic air fought its way into interior New England and a train of low pressure systems delivered MRG like 30 inches of powder in 3 days.

Yeah its a reach but I am feeling around for some karma !!

Mild upcoming week perhaps not as bad as initially thought

2012-01-22T09:58:00.003-05:00

The upcoming week had trouble written all over it going back two weeks. The forecast has in fact improved in recent days and we still could save the weekend of the 28th and 29th if we are lucky. First we are going to have to endure some freezing rain/drizzle Monday morning which will ultimately give way to rain and 40-degree temperatures Monday evening and Monday night. Following that the mountain will see a few dry and unseasonably warm days with temperatures in the 30's by day and 20's during the overnight. It is a very unexciting short term outlook but recall that I had expected worse with temperatures reaching 50 for one day and 40's for three.

By later Thursday it will again get interesting or perhaps it won't. The furious jet energy battering the Pacific Northwest will have won the U.S. over for the most part with mild weather spanning the area east of the front-range. On Wednesday, a storm will begin to gathering strength along the Texas coast and move northeast. It is likely to bring precipitation to MRG by late Thursday or early Friday. A few days ago I would have told you decisively that this would be a rain event and it still could be due to a lack of available cold. Split flow in the jet stream however provides a bit more drama to this storyline and some northern branch jet energy will try and undercut the large eastern Canadian ridge just as the more organized storm system approaches from the southwest. Both the American, European and Canadian models have had different things to say about this at different times. The recent run of the American model which is being released as I write this suggests the southern plains low pressure area late this week will get left back until the next system picks it up over the weekend turning it into a potential snow producer Saturday night into Sunday.

Given the period in question is less than a week away, the models are unusually disoriented and the specifics of the forecast picture will remain clouded for another day or two. With better certainty though I can say temperatures appear more winter-like for the weekend and that at a minimum, terrain induced snow showers should add at least a light accumulation of snow to the mountain.

Beyond the weekend moves us toward February and crunch time at MRG. Indications are inconclusive for the weekend and are even more inconclusive next week and beyond. Teleconnection indices appear move favorable overall with support coming from a slightly negative AO and NAO. The PNA is also expected to relax allowing the Pacific Northwest a break from the onslaught of storminess. The two dominant players on our side of the hemisphere will be a ridge setting up between the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska and a downstream trough setting up between the Rockies and the Plains. The problem here is that the aforementioned sentence offers way too broad of a range of possibilities by the first of February. In short, we can derive optimism from both the GFS and European ensembles as we move into February but the GFS shows a more abrupt and quicker weakening of the Pacific Jet allowing these positive changes to occur more quickly. The European Ensembles suggest another push of mild weather toward the end of Jan or early in Feb before it gets better by the first full weekend of Feb.

Joe Paterno you are still loved by students and alumni that watched you coach. It is very sad to you go out the way you did. No one is life is perfect and everyone and anyone can be guilty of lapses in judgement but your positive impact on the people around you far out-weighed the negative.

Light snow Saturday, freezing rain to rain on Monday

2012-01-19T23:08:00.002-05:00

The fast moving storm system slated to move from the Rockies Friday to the east coast Saturday will spread snow into Vermont Saturday morning. For the northern third of Vermont, it will be very close. The best snow from this storm appears to be across southern New England where 4-6 inches is expected. Farther north it will be difficult for some of this moisture to penetrate a very dry and very cold airmass. It is still reasonable to expect some light snow to begin early in the day and continue through early in the afternoon but accumulations will be on the lighter, 1-3 inch side. Still with the fresh snow from Thursday night into Friday morning it should be a pretty good day to ski. Sunday's temps will start below zero but moderate significantly by the afternoon rising into the 20's.

Temps will continue the moderation into Monday when a more potent storm system approaches and tracks directly north out of the southern plains to the eastern Great Lakes. The region will thus get flooded with warm air, initially just at the tropospheric mid-levels and ultimately everywhere. A period of freezing rain or drizzle is likely during the day Monday. By Monday night, the front associated with this storm system will arrive flushing out any lingering cold and bringing a period of rain along with a night of 40-plus temperatures.

Monday's system is a no-doubt-about-it loser and the airmass in the wake of Monday's system will be represented by relatively benign Pacific air. Such airmasses might feel nice but they are a direct product of that angry Pacific Jet out west. Much of the east including even Vermont will struggle to see temperatures well below freezing. The pattern will be conducive for another rain event later in the week but models have been a bit more capricious in this time frame. Some even engaging in a little bit of hope for MRG.

More on the long range this weekend after a few good nights of sleep. Stay warm this weekend and enjoy whatever snow we get.

Snow from two different systems should turn this weekend into a winner

2012-01-17T22:55:00.003-05:00

It still looks we have two potential snow producers on the weather map both of which should help turn the upcoming weekend into our 2nd consecutive winner. Both are products of a furious Pacific Jet Stream which is expected to grow even stronger over the next week. The first, as mentioned in the previous update carries little moisture but has plenty of cold to work with. It will spread clouds to the region Thursday afternoon and light but very fluffy snow Thursday night (the cold weather and lack of Atlantic moisture will help keep the density of this snow very light). Friday will therefore be a chilly powder day with 2-4 of new snow at first tracks time. Following a very chilly Saturday night with well below zero temperatures, milder air will begin its big push north. Cold air across interior New England, rarely gives up without a fight and the weekend should be no exception. Yes, the cold weather will gradually give ground but battleground will consist of an overrunning surface capable of producing a healthy period of light to moderate snow over the weekend, likely Saturday. There is a weather system responsible for all this and it will track from the central Rockies to the Atlantic coast very quickly Friday and Saturday. Where the moist conveyor sets up with this system remains a question so the range of possibilities for Saturday spans from a dusting to as much as 8 inches, but I expect something in the middle.

And then the pain begins. We will survive Sunday with below freezing temperatures and perhaps some lingering snow. I know the Pats and Giants are both playing huge games Sunday but winter might be taking an extended break after Sunday so it might be worth grabbing a piece if you can (For me the Giants will be tough to miss). It has been the Euro and its ensemble package which has been driving the train of a end-of-the-month January thaw. It all stems from the strong coupling of a trough across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian Rockies and a ridge across the desert Southwest. The result will be the formation of a very, very large ridge across centered over much of eastern Canada. How warm will it get and for how long ? I would expect a 3 day stretch of 40-plus maximum temperatures and 1 day with 50-plus temperatures. And I would also expect a rain event either in the middle or end of the week. Recent runs of the American GFS model do offer us an out next week by pushing the ridge far enough to the northeast so the warming is substantially mitigated. The history of this winter so far and the superiority of the European model in the last few months makes my educated guess an easy one to make but time will tell. Hopefully I get proven very wrong !

Things look a bit more encouraging toward the 1st of February when both the European and GFS Ensemble packages allow the ridging in eastern Canada to evolve into what could become a Greenland Block. This would turn the NAO negative and give us an ally in the fight against what has been a fierce Jet in the Pacific.

Wintry upcoming week but the end of the month looks distressing

2012-01-15T11:55:00.002-05:00

Snow on the ground and sub-zero temps has finally put Vermont in the spirit of the season and we should continue with this theme through the upcoming week. A brutally cold arctic air mass has begun its descent into western and central Canada and will ultimately grip much of the northern third of the U.S. this week. The southward push of cold however will not occur without a fight and this sets the stage for a sharp temperature gradient that will set up between the 35th and 40th parallel (that's old school for latitude). This temperature gradient will help carve the pathway for what appears to be two pieces of Pacific energy capable of delivering powder to MRG.

The first weather system marks the advance of the large southward advance of aforementioned arctic air and it will arrive later Tuesday. Of course, we already have very cold air gripping the region and it will gradually loosen its hard grip ahead of the arrival of Tuesday's system. By midday Tuesday, temperatures will warm to within a few degrees of the freezing mark and it will be the thickening clouds that slows the warming. Precipitation will then start as a wintry mix before going to all snow Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The low pressure center responsible will track directly over northern Vermont thus placing the best snow accumulations over Quebec. MRG should in the end do OK with a few inches to show for itself by Wednesday when blustery and very cold weather should reemerge across the region.

A second system late Thursday into Friday will have plenty of cold air to work with but will be a bit moisture starved. We should be able to squeeze a few inches of fluff out of this before cold air is re-enforced for the last time before an uninvited pattern change begins to take root. Thankfully these changes will not have an adverse impact on the weekend of the 21st and 22nd which I would expect should still be a winner. Very cold air will still be in place on Friday along with a few inches of fresh snow and the northward push of milder air will be fueled by a weather system capable of delivering additional and potentially significant snows to interior New England Saturday. I will wait for the next update to provide a bit more clarity on that.

Beyond next weekend is when the big trouble begins. The big personality characteristic so far this winter has been a very tight and very powerful jet stream in the mid-latitude Pacific. Unfortunately we will see this reemerge again and in a very bad way as much of the energy will be focused on the Pacific Northwest and Canadian Rockies. This will allow for a strong upper ridge to develop across southeastern Canada and New England. It is the kind of feature that can produce both record warmth and rain both of which are probable between the 23rd and 27th of the month. With these changes still a week away there are still a few outs but its not worth holding our breath right now.

A few tweaks and a few more specifics but expectations haven't changed

2012-01-12T15:42:00.002-05:00

The first area of precipitation brought 4-6 inches of snow, sleet and freezing drizzle to the northern Green Mountains. As expected, the evening and overnight hours should be relatively quiet although sporadic freezing drizzle could cause trouble on some of the roads. The second low pressure center is spinning its wheels across the Midwest and beginning to push east. It is a very dynamic system with some vigorous jet stream support as alluded to in previous posts. Temperatures in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere, based on some cross sectional analysis will be a bit marginal during the early morning Friday so when precipitation re-commences in earnest between 5 and 7 am it might be more of a sleety rain. By 9 AM the lower troposphere will have destabilized significantly and we should see rain change to snow and temperatures to turn abruptly colder. Snow should continue through much of the day and could at times become heavy during the evening Friday. 6-12 inches of powder Friday and Friday night is a conservative estimate. I would not at all be surprised if we outperform. A lot of the NWS forecasts will be tailored to valley locations where accumulations will be substantially less. Right now for instance the NWS forecast for Washington County says 1-3 Friday with an 80 percent chance of snow Friday night.

Snow showers should continue into Saturday but it will be cold and windy. Wind should taper off somewhat Sunday and completely by Monday although temperatures will be wintry dropping well below zero overnight and only rising into the teens during the day.

There are a couple of more chances for snow both late in the week and next weekend before we may have to battle more adversity by the 23rd or so of the month. More on that in a subsequent update but for now go find some of that long awaited untracked powder !!

10 - 20 inches of snow & some sleet for Thursday/Friday

2012-01-10T22:47:00.004-05:00

January 10th on the calendar marks the first occasion the blog can get excited about an event. Not exactly the kind of winter I had hoped for as of yet but at least we DO have a storm that can deliver for us in time for MLK holiday. This winter storm is coming together as of the time of this update with moisture advancing up through the Ohio Valley and jet energy ready to plunge into the thick of things by Thursday. The initial thrust of "moisture" with this system will remain ahead of some of this jet energy but we talked about the importance of attaining some "over-the-top" cold from Quebec and we will get such assistance even if its just a little.

By the time precipitation starts early Thursday temperatures will be well below freezing and by the looks of things it will be snow. The snow could quickly become very heavy Thursday morning as some of the best upward motion should occur in the late morning hours. As this is occurring however we should see an above-freezing layer advance into the region above the surface, changing precipitation to a period of sleet. by later in the day we will likely see a "lull" in the precipitation as temperatures make a slow advance to 30. 4-8 inches of snow and sleet would be my guess for Thursday only. Best chance of skiing in powder will be the morning before the sleet begins in the afternoon.

It is likely to get really fun as we move toward Friday. The lower troposphere will cool in the Thursday night/Friday morning time frame and models are keying on a very interesting jet max as this is occurring. This feature will allow an area of precipitation to enhance across Pennsylvania and New York before moving into Vermont in the pre-dawn hours Friday. All of this should be snow by the time it reaches MRG and although it could be a little wet at first Friday morning, temperatures will trend colder throughout the day, and the powder should start to pile up. It should persist through much of the day with the heaviest in the morning. Snow showers and flurries however will continue into Friday night and into Saturday morning. The additional 6-12 inches we should see in this time frame put this storm in the 10-20 inch category. It is not impossible for us to do even better, a lot depends on how Friday evolves.

The rest of MLK weekend appears mainly dry. The one clipper on the weather map Sunday will pass well to our south. Temperatures will be chilly with teens expected Saturday along with well-below zero wind chills (nothing we can't handle), and sub zero temps Sunday in the morning and teens in the afternoon although less wind. MLK day should be similar to Sunday with even less wind.

The balance of next week continues to appear mainly cold with the exception of late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Milder temperatures will attempt to make a push into the region in this time frame and I am hoping this ends up being an excuse for us to pick up some overrunning snows. The end of the week should feature some of the coldest weather of the season so far with temperatures falling into the -10 F category. Again nothing we can't handle and this cold will abate by next weekend when I am hoping some light snow from a clipper system can provide some additional fresh powder.

I am not in any sort of mood to focus on the weather beyond this. Ensembles are showing the PNA winning out with the cold and snow focused on western North America and lower Alaska. I am giddy about the upcoming storm and will simply hope things start to look a bit different late in the month before I have to provide another update. For now lets just enjoy some winter, we have waited long enough for it.

First extended period of "Winter" comes after Thursday/Friday event

2012-01-08T23:06:00.003-05:00

Aside from a little snowfall Monday night, amounting to an inch or two at best, we will now focus our attention on the Thursday/Friday system. This particular storm has all the makings of a beauty for MRG. Its got moisture from the Gulf and will track right over southeastern New England. As mentioned in the last update however, it has little cold air support. Much of it will have eroded and forecast temperature cross sections will be very marginal when precipitation begins early Thursday. Marginal does not necessarily mean rain, it is actually very close. Temperatures in the lowest 6,000 or so feet of the atmosphere will be within a degree or so of freezing and a shallow layer of below freezing temperatures at the surface may allow for a prolonged period of a sleet/snow/freezing rain mixture. Not ideal skiing weather and certainly not a powder day Thursday but that kind of stuff is good base building material and I would certainly take a few inches of that over rain. As you move north along the spine of the Green Mountains, chances improve for precipitation to be more snow less sleet. Jay Peak, as is the case many times, will likely triumph.

The system traveling through southeastern New England Thursday is the first of two significant pieces of energy capable of delivering the region precipitation. The second is polar jet energy which carries with it less moisture but its arrival will bring both colder temperatures and what appears to be a pool of instability capable of producing a period of some terrain induced snows Friday. At least a few inches are likely ahead of what should be a winter-like weekend with well below freezing temperatures and perhaps more snow showers if we are lucky. All of this comes as the AO makes its awaited switch, the switch that will finally allow winter to make an extended stay into Vermont.

The model guidance has been very inconsistent after the upcoming weekend. The global picture however makes a little more sense. The biggest feature on the weather board is a "blocking" ridge which will extend up from the Bering Sea to the Arctic regions. This should force much of the cold into North America but it is tough to discern where the focus of this cold will be. Ensembles show that some of it travels in to places such as Vermont while a bulk of it will wind up in the Pacific Northwest by the 18th or 19th of the month. With the polar branch of the Jet occupying mid-latitude North American it might be difficult to get Gulf or Atlantic Moisture into many of the passing weather systems. The Jet energy from polar regions often thwarts such attempts but fast moving clipper systems will still bring powder to the region at least twice between the 15th and 19th of the month.

It gets a little tricky after the 19th as much of the Ensemble data points toward colder, more active weather in western North America, a faster and more energetic Pacific Jet Stream and a relaxation of the cold in eastern North America. The AO will remain negative but will be forced to compete with the PNA to win over Vermont and the rest of interior New England.

Could be another rough upcoming week but light at the end of the tunnel still looks bright

2012-01-05T23:33:00.003-05:00

My Alma Mater, Penn State, university has endured a rough couple months but they just took a big risk by hiring Pats OC Bill O'Brien to be the next HC. I have no idea who this guy is except that he shouted at Tom Brady a few weeks ago (which i find rather impressive actually). Much of Penn State nation is in total meltdown mode by the way and ready to jump off a cliff (much bigger than the one in "the garden" btw). Any Pats fans have opinions about this guy ? I would love to hear it, email or otherwise.

Anyway, the possibility for a significant snows early next week has fallen to pieces. Unless things change dramatically, the jet impulse that could have been the catalyst Sunday will be a dud and incapable of manufacturing an east coast storm as we had hoped. Much of the jet energy early next week will get initially trapped over Texas giving the jet stream an "L Shape" configuration across eastern North America. We could handle this but there isn't a lot of southern branch jet energy this year with the prevailing La Nina to move this system along. It will gather moisture over the Gulf as the limited cold air across the Northeast erodes. By the middle of the week it will begin its northeastward progress as potent polar jet energy picks it up.

This is a big precipitation producer undoubtedly and Mad River Glen is going a substantial chunk of it late in the week. There are a couple of different ways this could evolve but it appears for now that we will not have the cold air in place for precipitation to start as snow and more likely rain. Depending on the track of the storm, the way in which it transitions to an east coast low pressure area, and particularly how the incoming cold weather becomes enveloped in this storm will determine our eventual fate. Most indications indicate that that the cold weather will arrive on the back side of the developed storm giving us a chance for wrap-around and terrain induced snows by next weekend. We would do better however if some of this cold could work its way in via the Quebec route and involve itself a bit with the moist conveyor of this storm.

The AO is still on target to make the critical switch around January 12th which will allow the cold weather to be more sustainable and significant snow to be much more likely. Still doesn't look like a home run pattern but the best we have seen so far this winter season.

It's getting more and more interesting !!

2012-01-03T23:25:00.002-05:00

With two successive runs of the European Model advertising the development of an east coast low pressure center over southern New England Sunday the 8th. The last run of the Euro showed the storm "bombing" near Boston Harbor and yielding foot-plus snows for much of the Green Mountain spine. The American model is not on board with the Sunday-Monday event but the Canadian model does show some indications of a storm albeit a smaller storm. The differences in the model are easy to decipher. The European simply shows a more potent upper level impulse capable of assuming the "protagonist" role. The American model no protagonist but merely a cold front innocently doing away with the mild weather we are expecting this Saturday.

A potentially stronger weather event or precipitation producer is more than possible for late in the week. This is, as promised, the beginning of a much more active and much more interesting period in our winter weather. This weather system will likely approach New England as much of the cold weather has made its exit. It also may travel along a path that could spread rain, at least initially to much of Vermont although this remains somewhat uncertain. There is a strong and very fresh supply of cold that may ultimately get enveloped into this storm and allow for a significant period of snow before temperatures return to typical January levels for the middle of the month.

The best news however involves the long long long awaited Arctic Oscillation sign switch. Yes, this is the decisive turn that has eluded us. This turn in the AO will put the breeze at our backs by the middle of the month and although we will still need to contend with a negative PNA with much of the jet energy in the west, the AO is the big enchilada and by January 12th or 13th it will be on our side of the pitch.

The holidays are over and we need to gear up for crunch time

2012-01-02T01:27:00.002-05:00

I hope everyone had a good and safe holiday and have a good 2012. Hopefully the weather will begin to cooperate for us powder enthusiasts, that is my wish for 2012. We have completed another bout with mild weather and will get a nice blast of winter with some sub-zero temperatures and very sub-zero wind chills between Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. We will get some flurries and snow showers as well but we will not have the right combination of low level instability and moisture to produce a big terrain-induced snow event. The east coast trough responsible for the first widespread outbreak of cold will get re-enforced very briefly Thursday and with this will come some clipper snows of perhaps a few inches. Temperatures will then moderate but this mild push of weather will only give us a glancing blow.

A quick word about the rapidly evolving weather pattern. It looks initially like a sequel to the December 2011 movie but will gradually evolve a bit differently. The upper ridge in the central Pacific will become more dominant and begin to displace the polar vortex over Alaska. These are not exactly the needed ingredients for a decisive change of momentum but it is a different pattern verses December and should yield some better results. We will have to overcome a pattern that focuses much of the snow and cold on the central and northern Rocky Mountains. It will, beginning next week, be a much better period for our western powder lovers. Can we overcome a pattern dominated by much of the jet stream energy focused on the west ? Perhaps. If so, the assist will come from changes over the Atlantic where an upper ridge is expected to form south of Greenland. It is physically impossible to have a ridge located there and have another over New England. The European ensembles agree and are suggesting and interesting and more active set-up next week and beyond that includes mild weather over the southeast battling it out with colder weather trying to make a southward push from Canada. We could continue to lose these battles, as we did in December and struggle. But we need these types of battles to have any chance for big snow and I like our chances a bit better with this set-up, a more traditional La Nina long-wave pattern.

The milder weather next weekend will have the biggest impact on locations farther south. Interior New England will have a couple of above-freezing afternoons before a colder push early next week pushes temperatures back to more seasonable levels. From there, let the games begin. Between the 9th and 20th of the month, I would expect at least 3 chances for significant snows. Sleet and ice are also possible in any of these events but a good sleet event is great base building material and I would take some of that as well.

Less enthused about New Years eve Clipper and about the pattern overall starting next weekend

2011-12-30T10:34:00.005-05:00

Unfortunately, we are going to have to lower expectations with the polar pacific clipper system. It has some moisture with it as it passes through the Midwest but much of this moisture, according to some of the latest high resolution models, will get rung out over the Great Lakes. In the end, occasional light snow Friday night and Saturday will amount to 1-4 inches. This will be followed of course by the push of milder weather which is expected to impact the region on one afternoon. It will actually be a rather pleasant late December day with temperatures in the 40's but we are in much greater need of both more snow and more cold.

Much of the eastern United States will get its biggest blast of cold so far this winter. The front will arrive late in the evening of New Years Day and we are not expecting much in the way of any rain. Enough low level instability in the wake of the frontal passage should set the stage for a period of terrain induced snow showers throughout January 2nd and into January 3rd. A little too early to tell about the potential for accumulations in this time frame except to say at least an inch or two. Later in the week the large upper trough, responsible for the widespread outbreak of cold will get re-enforced briefly by a clipper system that is expected to drop into the eastern Great Lakes around the time frame of Wednesday the 4th. This system may bring some snowfall to Vermont or may bring the bulk of its effects to areas farther south.

The concern expressed a few times on the blogs relates to the lack of blocking associated with next week's cold outbreak. You can think of this as a ship reaching port without an anchor. Jet stream blocking at high latitudes is this anchor and although the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations have been neutralized they have yet to resemble the picture that we need to turn this thing completely around. The result will be the erosion of cold weather by next week and perhaps even another 1-2 day stretch of unneeded milder weather. I have been watching the upper level pattern in the Pacific closely for signs of a change; indeed, there are some changes but not all of them good. It will be another coupling of upper ridging in the Pacific/Polar Vortex over Alaska which will drive the cold out next weekend. The vortex of cold in Alaska however will move out of that region toward western North America allowing a somewhat more tradional La Nina set up to establish itself by January 10th or so. The result ? cold weather in western North America, warm weather in the southeastern United States and anything goes across the Great Lakes and Northeast. My guess is that temperatures between the 8-14th of the month will be above normal. We could however see slight above normal temperatures with a few snow/ice events or we could see more substantial above normal temperatures with ice and rain events. Our friends in the western United States should do very very well in this set-up.

We need more where that came and we may just get it !!

2011-12-28T23:57:00.003-05:00

A very much needed foot of snow fell across parts of the central and northern Green Mountains yesterday. A terrain induced event aided by wrap around moisture from the departing storm and lake moisture from everywhere. Its nice to get surprised with more than expected snows but I also like to see the cold weather exceed some expectations since the winter so far has exhibited the opposite personality of failing to meet expectations from both a cold weather and snowfall perspective.

After a dry Thursday, Friday December 30th will feature the arrival of a fast moving but intriguing clipper system. Its a system featuring two pieces of polar pacific jet energy with enough vigor to bring an extended period of light to occasionally moderate snows to Mad River and company for New Years Eve. If parts of the mountain do indeed open as expected, it will be a nice way to start the season. Overall snowfalls Friday into Saturday could total in the 5-10 inch range and should be of the low density-fluff variety.

The warm weather I was concerned about will be confined to one afternoon - New Years Day. Temperatures will make a push toward above-freezing levels but balmy conditions will not be nearly as intense or prolonged as I had feared. Better yet, no significant rain or ice should occur when a sharp cold front ushers in much colder weather for next week. This is a week which will be dominated by the polar branch of the jet which means below normal temperatures (FINALLY), snow showers for Monday and Tuesday and perhaps some clipper snows later in the week. Undoubtedly this is a much more encouraging appearance !!

Variable upcoming week but a better outlook after Jan 2

2011-12-26T08:01:00.003-05:00

We did get a few days where it did truly feel like winter and the outlook appears more wintry going forward but the next week or so will be very hit and miss. The big weather system Tuesday is a big miss. The phasing of southern stream moisture and polar jet energy will not bring us much as cold weather is simply incapable of holding its ground in this pattern. The system will bring its precipitation to the region Tuesday evening as a mixture of rain, snow and sleet but ultimately the mountain will get another several hours of rain. The system will indeed bomb out as it approaches the Canadian Maritimes and this will help usher cold back into Vermont early Wednesday accompanied by some snow but we could've used a better result from this and we simply won't get it. Overall it looks like about an inch of liquid will fall from this system with 70-80 percent of it rain and 20-30 percent snow Wednesday thus about 3-4 inches.

From Wednesday onward the outlook is more optimistic and significantly snow after the New Year. A series of clipper systems between Thursday and New Years Eve will yield some fruitful results. Products of the very intense Polar/Pacific jet stream, the first of such systems should arrive later Thursday and spread a light accumulation of snow to most of Vermont and New Hampshire and a second could spread additional snows to the region Friday night into Saturday. Put together, the accumulations from these two systems could total as much as 10 inches. The snowfall will be very fluffy in nature and the 10 inches is the optimistic side of the range but we will take that in what has been a very tough month. The now frozen Hudson Bay is also finally lending a hand since it appears some cold in eastern Canada is finally showing signs of fighting its way into the region since it can't seem to make any progress anywhere else in the U.S. right now.

The warm-up promised for New Years Day (plus or minus a day or two) is still evident on the forecast weather maps but not quite as intense in magnitude or duration. It will begin with a warmer, above freezing afternoon on New Years Day and will hopefully end with a minimal amount of rain on the 2nd. Maybe the trend toward removing this from the forecast picture will continue but for now I would continue to expect it.

The better news involves manifestations upstream of the region after the New Year. The Pacific has, as mentioned many times, been very problematic so far this winter season with the upper ridging in the Mid-latitude regions clashing with a polar vortex over Alaska for much of the month. At around the time of the New Year, the jet energy across Alaska will at least temporarily win this clash and allow a deeper trough to form in the eastern Pacific and consequently a ridge to develop in western North America. The upper ridge now appears as if it may be one of the stronger features on the Northern Hemisphere weather map in about a week or so. This type of pattern is much more amplified and should allow for a period of much colder and wintry weather across a broad area of the eastern United States after the 2nd. It does not mark a switch in some of the major teleconnection indices that we track but we should a neutralization of these indices and hopefully - game on.

Wintry through the 27th, rain and wet snow the 28th and warm weather for New Years

2011-12-23T15:44:00.003-05:00

The ground is white, the trees are white thanks to the warm and wet weather that preceded our light snowfall and at least it looks a bit wintry out there. It will also stay wintry for the next few days with some single digit overnights and daytime temps in the 20's. The weather itself will remain dry through Christmas Day but a clipper system will bring its clouds to the region late Sunday and snow showers Sunday night into Monday. This clipper system is potent enough to temporarily carve a nice little trough along the northeast coast and there are some indications that instability as a result of this will allow for snow showers through much of Monday, enough for a terrain induced accumulation of a few inches.

The weather evolution next week appears a bit different than it has the last few days. Most of the changes are less than desirable, but Tuesday could be an interesting event although it if lives up to the tradition of December 2011 it will simply be another rain event. The changes involve southern branch Gulf of Mexico moisture and energy that will be grabbed by the collar by a faster moving clipper system. The result will be a significant precipitation producing weather system for the entire northeast beginning later Tuesday and none of this appeared likely even 36 hours ago. The cold which is expected to persist through Tuesday morning will erode very quickly and a fresh supply of cold will far removed from the weather picture. The southern energy however allows the storm to take a more southern track so temperatures should be close to freezing when the precipitation begins Tuesday evening. What appears most likely is period of both rain and snow, with precipitation beginning as a mixture before changing to rain then perhaps back to a heavy snow before ending midday Wednesday. With any weather system of this nature though, slight changes in the forecast variables could push the result in either direction. We could certainly use a surprise heavy snow. It is possible, if it does happen it could be of the "sierra cement" variety but us skiers know how desperately the Vermont high country needs a boost to the snowpack right now.

The less than desirable part of the forecast change will take place around New Years Day where it appears models are converging on yet another warm-up for the east coast. The mild push would begin Friday after semi-seasonable temperatures late Wednesday into Thursday. How fast this occurs remains uncertain but much above normal temperatures are now very likely in the New Years Eve to New Years Day time frame and with that will come the increased risk for more rain.

Beyond the first looks slightly more promising. Much will depend on the ability to break down the jet stream ridge in the central mid-latitude Pacific. There is not a lot of evidence of this as of yet and with that we will continue to struggle. That being said both ensembles indicate a ridge west/trough east jet stream configuration and such an outcome would still be better verses what the previous month has wrought.

Hoping we go one for two this weekend

2011-12-21T00:39:00.003-05:00

Snow is at least part of the discussion this go round. It will be worth thinking about in the midst of what should be a mostly rainy or freezing rainy Wednesday across the Green Mountains of Vermont. The situation sets up as follows. The mainly wet system Wednesday will exit and leave with it one extra day of above freezing temperatures Thursday. The front associated with Wednesday's system is a very weak one initially but the entrainment of some polar energy will give this front some legs and invite a wave of low pressure to develop near the Gulf Coast and track very quickly northeast toward the New England coast Friday. It is less than 72 hours away and the track of impact from this storm remains unclear; in fact, the much more reliable European model is suggesting no impact at all (although the European wants to tell a whole different yet interesting story Christmas weekend, more on that later). The system however does have some potential and also has the benefit of a fresh supply of what limited cold is available from this deplorable weather pattern. The cold will drain gradually southward out of Canada as the wave of low pressure approaches Thursday night. Snow could be moderate to heavy for a time if the storm tracks close to Long Island or attains a stronger intensity than models suggest. Its quick movement however would keep snowfall totals generally in the light to moderate category if at all.

The European model, which has been eating the American Model's lunch all month is suggesting not at all. That being said, the European model maintains that storm development along the aforementioned front will be later in the forecast period. Christmas Day to be exact. The supply of cold air will be more stale but the pattern will be in the process of turning more amplified and could allow for major storm to take shape and one that could deal interior areas the bulk of the snow. The American model will have none of this however and is putting all its eggs in Friday's basket.

My best guess is that we go one for two here. If Friday's wave of low pressure fails to materialize it will leave the door open for the ignition of the second and potentially more potent wave Sunday. A stronger system and a snowier Friday could act to drive the front farther offshore by Sunday. I can't see two events in the 3-4 day stretch.

No reason to doubt any of the thinking beyond Christmas Day. The temporary amplification of the eastern trough is no match for the furious jet action in the Pacific. This is just been such a demoralizing scenario to start the ski year and there are stronger indications it will try and re-assert itself after the 27th of the month. This will mean another mild of push of air after the 27th and potentially another non-snow event before the new year. Ensembles are then suggesting the potential for temporary pushes of cold around New Years Day and beyond but it is vital we break the positive Arctic Oscillation and we have yet to see evidence of that.

Change we can believe in ?? Not quite

2011-12-17T09:12:00.003-05:00

We have made it to "the reprieve". The warm weather has finally given way to more seasonable temperatures but it remains extremely difficult to get excited about the outlook going forward. In short, the pattern continues to be plagued by many of the same problems discussed in the blog in previous entries. The repetition of these features, particularly in the Pacific is making me feel like a boxer against the ropes getting his head beat in as he tries to avoid a knock down. The next 10 or so days should be better verses what we have seen so far this December but I want "change I can believe in" to borrow the Obama slogan and I have yet to see it.

We finally have our hands on some arctic cold which is a start. As we move into Monday the cold will get re-enforced as a clipper system moves through the eastern Great Lakes and spreads what should be a light accumulation of snow to the region late Monday the 19th. This is not the system we have been watching however, that system will begin its journey in the southern Rockies, move into the Red River Valley later Monday and track across the rest of the country Tuesday. We should see precipitation from this feature either late Tuesday into Wednesday but although the track of this system is not nearly as unfavorable as previous, our supply of cold air will quickly become stale and will struggle to hold its ground. At best we can expect a wet snow out of this but it is possible for a changeover to mixed precipitation, freezing rain or even a period of rain. Everything should be over and done with by Wednesday evening and a gradual return to colder conditions.

The return to chill late in the week should be the start of another stretch of at least seasonable temperatures and possibly even below normal temperatures for a day or two. The return to chill late in the week might also include some type of mixed precipitation to snow event. This would likely take the form of a wave of low pressure energizing a slow moving cold front. This however along with the cold weather that follows should preserve the period between the 24th and 28th of the month which i know is a big one for vacation planners. During this period, there is no evidence of a major snow event but clipper systems and weaker features could certainly provide some fresh powder to the region Christmas Day or the two days that follow.

The brief amplification of a western North American upper ridge will play its hand in that aforementioned 24th-28th period but there continues to be a lack of evidence that this change will be of a permanent. Instead, the broader weather map reverts back to the features that have hurt us. Height rises and upper ridging in the Mid-latitude Pacific coupled with the potential redevelopment of an poler vortex over Alaska. These are the main ingredients to the zonal flow scenario we have seen now for 5 weeks. The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation continue to run positive revealing the lack of blocking at high latitudes and it is only the PNA providing some support over the next 10 days that is providing any real aid.

Encouraging signs in some of the Ensemble data

2011-12-13T22:03:00.002-05:00

Yet another round of mild weather and rain is poised to invade interior New England and specifically the northern Green Mountain chain. Temperatures will soar well into the 40's Thursday and we will have to endure a period of rain during the middle of the day. The weather system responsible for the rain will bring colder weather, much colder weather in its wake. We will finally start to benefit from the 80 percent frozen Hudson Bay and colder air will thus be able to access eastern Canada more freely and more vigorously and can push southward from there. Temperatures over the weekend will stay well below freezing through the weekend and a clipper system Sunday should spread a fluffy accumulation of powder to the mountains.

Our pivotal pre-holiday moment will come early next week, likely Tuesday, as the cold air relinquishes its grip on the region and a stronger storm system approaches from the southwest. There are questions about both the track of this system and the available cold air and I am certainly concerned about both. We have as you know, no blocking mechanism to keep cold air in place and the prevailing pattern and warm Great Lakes has constantly pulled these systems farther north and farther west. It is very possible if not likely that next Tuesday sees this very result. With all that said, models are still odds and have yet to settle on a solution and are allowing for the possibility of a more wintry scenario.

Tuesday is important because if we can get some snow or even sleet out of that system, the stage will get brighter. The European Ensemble which has been accurately predicting almost tropical weather for the northeast over the past 3-4 weeks is finally showing some key changes starting in the middle of next week. It is not total vindication but the pattern will get an important boost from at least the temporary establishment of a western North American upper ridge. This should send some rather impressive shots of cold deep into the U.S. as we approach Christmas. The polar vortex in Alaska will also weaken at this point allowing the Jet in the Pacific to relax. The pattern in the Pacific is still disconcerting. It will still feature a lot of this Jet Stream level warmth referred to as ridging. Last year the Pacific was surprisingly unstable at mid-latitudes and this was attributed to the highly negative AO which dominated the weather pattern for December and January. Going a little deeper into the world of "geek speak" meteorologists talk about the formation of a high latitude "block' as a stratospheric warming event. A sudden warming of the stratosphere signals the formation of a high latitude block and thus signals that there will be a major southward transport of arctic air somewhere. The stratosphere which has been very cold so far this winter is expected to see such an event in the next 7-10 days. The phenomenon can only be viewed in general terms and does not reveal specifics. All we know is that the atmosphere will get shaken up, at least a little as we get toward the holidays. Given what has happened so far, we have little too lose from such a shake-up.

In search of the lost cold - extended version

2011-12-10T09:42:00.003-05:00

In short we are continuing to get really hurt by jet stream level warmth in the mid-latitude Pacific. It continues to be one of the biggest features on the globe and it continues to haunt MRG and surrounding Vermont encouraging frequent warm-ups, rain events and an inability to build an early season snow-pack. These struggles will continue through the holidays thanks largely to the Pacific issues and the Arctic Oscillation which will remain mostly positive for the next two weeks.

The next few days will remain mostly below freezing, at least in the high country. By Thursday however, another push of mild weather will precede what appears to be a rain event. A better track might allow for a period of snow with this system but the Great Lakes aggregate continues to be warm relative to average, 7-10 degrees warmer than average in fact and that often induces low pressure centers in the center of the country to track toward the Great Lakes and thus bring milder weather ahead of the track and deep into New England. We will find some lost cold behind this system, a legitimate shot of arctic air in fact by next weekend and the coldest weather of the season so far. The Ensembles beyond this time frame however are not painting a pretty picture however. Specifically one that still includes the above-mentioned features. I would thus guess that although we may see some snow between the 17th and 19th of the month we are likely to see another warm-up prior to the holidays

Its looking better, at least a little

2011-12-05T23:01:00.002-05:00

For one thing, we will get a reprieve from the sustained warmth which has plagued the region throughout November into the early part of this month. More generally speaking the teleconnection indices which have been quite disruptive particularly in recent weeks will also take a break There is no evidence of a decisive shift toward a "blocking" pattern of some variety, but a relatively neutral AO and slightly positive PNA will be just enough to at least get the ball rolling in the right direction. The first chance for significant snow is a very long shot. If it happens it will come from a wave of low pressure forming along the slow moving front to the regions south. If any real snow is to occur from this, the storm will need to intensify much quicker than what is currently indicated; otherwise, the storm will bring precipitation, and mainly rain to coastal cities.

A clipper system will arrive late Friday in advance of a much more substantial shot of chill, the first chance we will have of seeing temperatures lower than 10 F. A few inches of snow are possible from this before temperatures take this plunge. Thereafter, the pattern will be anchored by a classic La Nina style upper ridge in the Gulf of Alaska which is traditionally a dangerous place for such a feature. Thus, the risk remains for a early week warm up and non-snow type of event between the 12th and 14th of the month. Recent medium range model runs however have suggested that cold weather will grip a large portion of southern Canada and will keep us in the game so to speak. Any warm-up next week will likely be brief and my not occur at all. Cold weather will then overtake the region again after 15th and should grip the region for at least a 4-6 day stretch. It may not be a home-run forecast but at least an improvement over what we have seen.

Another positive development is the speed at which the Hudson Bay is freezing. Cold weather has gripped that region of Canada and that large body of water is on pace to freeze in a week to 10 days. This would be several weeks earlier than last year and will allow unmodified cold weather to move into eastern Canada a lot more freely. This is a critical thermal feedback that we will need to work in our favor if we are to proceed into the heart of this winter without any high latitude "blocking" to assist us.

Another week of mild weather coming

2011-12-03T13:36:00.003-05:00

A few days ago I broke down and bought "The Last Waltz" on blu-ray. This is a concert/documentary by Martin Scorsese on The Band's last performance in late 1976 at the Winterland Ballroom in San Francisco. I can't claim to be a die-hard fan of "The Band", admittedly it seemed far removed from my generation but in the end I was completely blown away. It really is an organic music experience like no other I think. The incredible collection of musicians, the assortment of musical styles and influences ranging from jazz to country/bluegrass to blues to straight up rock and the sincerity of the interviews and performances are really hard to match. Sadly it all especially rings true in an environment watered down with the likes of Katie Perry or the other mass-produced pop music filling the airwaves. Especially for those generation Y2k's looking for something "real", go out and get your hands on "The Last Waltz", its a real piece of musical Americana. The irony there is that "The Band" is Canadian and the concert includes American musicians paying tribute to their contributions to music.

I can't speak so positively about the weather at MRG over the next week. Mild air will work its way back into the region later Sunday and into Monday. With that will come the rain which will in association with a slow moving front. The rain will be off and on between Monday and Tuesday night totaling between .50 and 1 inch total. Colder weather then arrives Wednesday night with flurries and snow showers but even this cold will fail to bring temperatures back to normal and might also give way to another mild push and rain for next weekend although this remains a question mark right now.

About the only thing we do know for sure beyond a week is that we will see a more serious punch of cold weather late next weekend after another rain or mixed precipitation event next weekend. Several runs of the European Ensemble have suggested that the very positive AO will continue to rule the day allowing the cold weather next weekend/early next week to lift and opening the door for more mild temperatures and potentially more rain. The GFS and its ensembles suggest otherwise; in fact, the GFS is so dramatically different beyond the 12th of December allowing arctic cold to completely overwhelm the pattern. This evolution is supported by a developing La Nina style ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and allowing the downstream trough to become expansive enough to cover most of Canada. It defies my sense of reality but it is nonetheless encouraging. It would be realistic enough to expect cold weather to expand its influence across Canada and at least become somewhat accessible to northern New England. I would not expect cold weather to be as persistent as what the GFS suggests beyond the 12th of the month.

Arctic Oscillation crippling early season hopes

2011-11-28T21:23:00.002-05:00

The Arctic Oscillation is the king of teleconnection indices. The ability to achieve a pattern of sustainable cold in areas south of 50 North with a minimal risk of rain is best done through a negative AO. A negative AO indicates that the upper air pattern at the poles is blocked and consequently consists of higher surface pressures at higher latitudes and lower pressures in the middle latitudes. The AO for the last several weeks has been positive and is largely responsible for the prevailing warmth in Vermont and the rest of the northeast. That warmth has reached a climax in the waning days of November. Yes, there are some signs of colder weather and snow particularly later next week but the ability for any cold weather to be a permanent fixture on the weather map will be compromised severely by the AO and NAO which show a lack of upper air blocking and encourages zonal flow. The SCWB has tried to quantify the teleconnection indices with the creation of the highly unscientific "favorability index". The index is a cumulative measure of the PNA, NAO and AO indices but we flip the signs of the AO and NAO so that positive numbers indicate "favorable" and negative "unfavorable". Negative AO and NAO indices indicate the blocking described above while positive PNA indices indicate upper ridging in western North America. For example, a NAO index of -0.7, an AO index of -1.5 and a PNA index of -0.1 produces a favorability index of +2.1. In this case the 14 day favorability consists of a NAO index of +0.7, an AO of +2.0 and a PNA of -0.2. This equates to a -2.9 which is an inauspicious number in this early part of the season.

The upcoming 5-7 days will remain very mild with only a brief break. A very moist storm system in the Midwest will track up through the eastern Great Lakes which is not good and lacks any access to cold air which is also not good. The front associated with this storm has had its eastward progression halted because of the prevailing upper air pattern and honestly I am just glad this hasn't happened later in the year. Get this nonsense out of the way now because such a scenario which includes the combination of rain and high dewpoints can obliterate snowpack. Since we don't have much of one anyway there is not much to lose.

Colder weather Thursday will also give way to another surge of warmer temperatures by the end of the weekend. More rain showers will mark the end of the warm weather on Monday the 5th or Tuesday the 6th of December. Much colder air will then grip the region for a period of around 3-5 days. Embedded in this stretch will likely be a clipper system capable of producing light accumulations. The question will be whether this cold air can persist through the middle of the month without another big warm-up. Right now I think that answer is no since too many of the above mentioned teleconnection indices are working against us.

La Nina 2011 has a sequel, lets hope its as good as the orginal

2011-11-25T14:31:00.005-05:00

Like "The Empire Strikes Back" was to "Star Wars". Lets hope it is not what the latest "Wall Street - Money Never Sleeps" was to the original "Wall Street". The world continues to become more and more hyper-connected and the SCWB continues to struggle to keep up. This year will mark the blogs introduction to Twitter which I hope will prove a very useful piece of social media for the blog. The demands of my job and my time continue to increase and the ability to do any updates from work is long gone. The application at the top of the blog however will allow me to upload tweets all day and night if I choose and do so from my Iphone, something I really should have started doing last year. It will be used mostly to pass along information or updates between traditional blog posts. We will see how it works but feel free to interact via the Tweets and provide suggestions, comments or critique.

One quick shout out before we go to all the folks who have worked so hard to recover from the disastrous Hurricane Irene. I know it has taken a Herculean effort and many volunteering hours to prepare for this season after a weather event that none of us will soon forget. I am sure I am not alone but I wish everyone involved a speedy road to recovery and the best of luck this season and beyond. Hopefully the skies will produce a more constructive type of precipitation for the upcoming winter, the type we can make some turns in and certainly the type that stops at our doorsteps.

The Thanksgiving holiday brought with it a potent Noreaster and some heavy snow. It came in the midst of a rather unfavorable weather pattern with entrenched features that do no support sustainable cold or snow especially at this early juncture of the winter season. It is a winter that should continue to feature a La Nina but one that of this date is half the strength of the 2010-2011 version.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

The link above illustrates SST trends over the last 12 months in the ENSO regions. There are a total of 4 regions, 1-4 with the first positioned close to South America and the fourth positioned close to the date line. The 3.4 region is a hybrid region stretching roughly from halfway across region 3 to west to halfway through region 4. In the link above, this region is the second down from the top and the difference between this year and last year is fairly evident. This year's ENSO will not be quantified as a strong event unless it strengthens considerably in the coming month. Theoretically, a weaker La Nina would allow traditional characteristics of a La Nina winter to be less frequent and easier to break down. These features include a persistent upper ridge in the southeastern United States deflecting storm systems to the Great Lakes region and an even stronger upper ridge across the Gulf of Alaska forcing much of the snow and cold in to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. New England is often the battleground and can swing in either direction. The support of a very persistent and often very strong negative Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation forced the battleground southward and the region was on the snowy side of many systems. Amazingly, the best snowfall with many of last years big weather systems was again to the regions south which is very unusual in a La Nina event of that magnitude. Such a result is rationalized however through the support of the above-mentioned teleconnection indices.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO has also been a traditional pre-season parameter worthy of discussion. It has in fact proven to have some skill in predicting the trough/ridge configuration across North America. To be fair however it has not done a good job of indicating the amount of powder days we will see at MRG. The last 5 years at MRG can accurately be described as ranging from slightly good to excellent good years and 4 of these years have featured a negative PDO when traditionally it has been the positive PDO which would seem to support a colder and snowier pattern. It is somewhat of a chicken and egg situation with the PDO since the configuration of temperatures in the mid-latitude Pacific (the PDO) are to some degree a function of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the Pacific. As of now, the index continues to run negative, more negative in fact than last year (1.34 as opposed to -1).

One of my favorite methods of glancing into the future is to actually look at what is happening with early season snow and ice expansion. For a while it looked ugly. With the exception of 2007, the ice had retreated to its lowest levels since this type of data has been recorded. And yes, unlike other phenomena such as a 20 inch snowfall in Washington D.C. the retreat of ice in the Arctic regions can be attributed to climate change. Much of the month of October continued to see a slow expansion of snow/ice and the month ranked 30th out of the last 44 October's in total northern hemisphere snow/ice cover. The last few weeks however has seen a remarkable turnaround. This can no doubt be partly attributed to a highly positive AO which has effectively bottled the cold near the polar regions. This cold however has pooled very effectively and allowed the ice to expand very rapidly. The actual ice has expanded to beyond 2006, 2007 and 2010 levels and now rivals 2009 and 2008 levels. The snow has also caught up to and surpassed the roughly 45-year average and is now running above average and should thus allow the month to chime in at above average. This is very important in my view since some of the warmest winters have featured a combined October/November Northern Hemisphere snow cover area that is way below average. It took a late inning rally, but we won't do that this year.

What we should see however is a sluggish start in spite of the foot of snow received Thanksgiving. Ironically, La Nina appears much more evident in the weather pattern than it ever did last year with strong upper ridging in the Gulf of Alaska region enhancing the jet energy across the west and making it difficult for Arctic cold to move out of the polar regions for any length of time. For much of November in fact, ridging in the mid-latitude Pacific was destroying the weather pattern much like it did in the early part of the 2006-2007 winter. After a relatively mild week we should succeed at getting some intermittent cold and snow after December 5th but overall pattern will remain anchored by a very positive AO and this will prevent cold from lingering for any real duration. More on this in a subsequent post but this sluggish start will ultimately be replaced by a winter which should not stray too far from normal. We may by the end of the season see above normal snowfall again but I will predict a relatively average 270 inch winter with temperatures slightly above average. For now however, be patient and don't get discouraged with what will likely be some early season frustration.

Season to conclude quietly with no snow but fantastic weather

2011-04-06T17:04:00.002-05:00

Snow showers and squalls Wednesday provided skiers with a steal from a value standpoint and has also supplied re-enforcements to a healthy April base of snow. The chilly conditions should persist through Friday but the overrunning precipitation event which had the potential to spread another blanket of snow to Vermont will bring mostly rain and will bring all of that rain to areas well to our south. Both Thursday and Friday should feature below freezing mornings, above freezing afternoons and great visibility with intervals of sun and high clouds.

No precipitation is expected over the weekend but the weather looks simply outstanding. Temperatures may start below freezing but the combination of sunshine and the erosion of support for the recent chill will allow temperatures to surge into the 50's during the afternoon. Sunday will feature a few more clouds perhaps but a mild southwesterly breeze will support even warmer temperatures to go along with great visibility once again. Readings during the afternoon could exceed 60 in the low lying areas.

Weather models have made a decisive turn toward milder weather next week and most of the country should see the effects of this. The proposed MRG closing date thus looks very well-timed as some serious dents in the snow pack should occur by the end of the week. We will do one more wrap-up blog entry but until then enjoy the weekend.

2011-04-01T12:21:00.002-05:00

Let me apologize for leaving the SCWB adrift for the past week. I was buried in the Caribbean (Barbados to be exact which is actually out in the Atlantic a bit but who's counting) and was promised internet access at my hotel. Alas the connection proved unreliable and I simply gave up. In the meantime winter continues to rage on, particularly as of April fools where a storm continues to strengthen as it pushes northeast in the Gulf of Maine. The consensus forecast of about 4-8 inches seems to look ok to me. Temperatures at the base will keep the snow of the wet variety but snow should continue to fall through Saturday morning and a slight drop in temperatures will allow for some powdery turns during the morning. Temperatures in the mid thirties during the afternoon along with the brighter midday skies will make the snow a bit wetter again.

Over the next week to 10 days which spans the duration of the season at MRG, there only appears to be one significant warm-up. It will come in the form of a quick surge in warmer temperatures Tuesday. The warm-up will be preceded by a period of freezing rain and rain Monday evening induced mostly by classic New England overrunning. Blustery and mild conditions will then prevail during the day Tuesday followed by showers and perhaps even a rumble of thunder Tuesday afternoon as a cold front attacks the region.

The cold weather to follow doesn't appear to be particularly anomalous but it will be the commencement of an extended stretch of generally cooler conditions that should include mostly below freezing nights and day time temperatures that struggle into the 40's if that. Flurries and snow showers will prevail for Wednesday followed by a dry day on Thursday. Another push of warmth on Friday is likely to fail to make any indentation into interior New England. Instead, we should see the possibility of snow or rain both Friday and Saturday, weather that should support MRG's continued operation through April 10th or next weekend.

Winter-like cold grips Vermont for the next week

2011-03-23T16:07:00.002-05:00

The bulk of precipitation Thursday will remain to the regions south. The American GFS runs up through this morning had shown the formation of a deformation area across the Vermont and New Hampshire high country which in effect would produce a steady snow Thursday night and Friday. Some indication of this remains although at a lesser intensity. The higher resolution short term models also have some indications of snow although it would be of the lighter 1-3 inch variety. We won't be able to rely too much on low level instability to produce snow since there isn't much too speak of through the end of the week. Any snow would have to be "mechanically" induced through physically lifting moist layers of the atmosphere, a job typically done by a warm or cold front.

As for the weekend, the weather itself looks primarily dry but temperatures will be very wintry ranging from single numbers in the morning to near 30 in the afternoon. It may be balmy compared to January but 15 degrees below average is statistically significant for the season and will certainly prevent any material erosion of the existing base. Saturday should be the day to feature more sun (mixed with clouds and occasional snow flurries) and some gusty winds. Sunday may feature more in the way of clouds along with less winds. Sunday will also feature another late March snow event which is not expected to have any impact on MRG or northern Vermont (precipitation should again stay to our south) although we will keep an eye on it.

We have a better chance for weather during the middle part of next week. It would be the last system to potentially have an snowy impact on us during the resurgence of cold. We had successive runs of the European model show a very favorable track and some significant snows for us Tuesday and Wednesday. The cycle of model runs released close to noon today showed a track well to our south. This last system is our best chance and perhaps our last chance for big powder of the season as it is expected to warm to above freezing levels by the end of the week (April 1) followed by a little spring rain during the first weekend in April.

Snow makes a return and so does the cold weather

2011-03-21T00:23:00.002-05:00

An innocent looking storm system across will quickly spread its moisture into Vermont Monday. This is a weather system that caused thunderstorms with sleet across the Great Lakes in spite of the fact that the storm only has a central pressure of 1010 mb. It is the clashing of airmasses that is acting as the ignition for the intense area of precipitation and as this area of precipitation moves east into the colder temperatures it will snow. The snow will fall mainly across the northern part of the state beginning during the midday hours Monday and persisting through Monday night. The 8-12 inches wiy ll be a nice little victory this late in the season as the snow will turn heavy for a time late Monday. At the base the snow will be of a wetter consistency but the upper half of the mountain should see powder. The snow will taper to flurries by Tuesday morning and sunshine will make a return.

We talked about another storm during the midweek period, another product of a major clash in airmasses. Like before it looks like most of the snow will travel to our south although a few recent runs of the GFS American Model have the region getting grazed with a few inches. We do now it will be very cold for late March with temperatures remaining below freezing for the most part through the end of the week. The cold weather may abate somewhat by the weekend but temperatures will remain below normal and we may get just enough instability for occasional snow showers.

Spring conditions have arrived but winter plans to fight back

2011-03-17T23:16:00.002-05:00

Many areas in Vermont have seen a long awaited day of 50-degree temperatures. The warmth has corned up the snow and melted a large percentage of it in low lying areas. At high elevations however the snow depth remains healthy and well above average for this time of year and colder weather over the next week will ensure it remains that way. The question involves our chances for a late season snow.

As far as organized systems go, it's a mixed review. Cold weather will arrive in time for the weekend but the prevailing airmass is a dry one and the weekend will feature great visibility, a good amount sunshine and temperatures which dip into the teens during the early morning hours before rising close to or above 40 during the afternoon. By Monday another push of warmer temperatures will accompany the arrival of the next storm system. This low pressure center will travel up the St Lawrence Valley and will thus ensure that any snowfall is minimal at least initially. The moisture however will be moving quickly east and this could mean a period of freezing rain Monday. Colder weather will quickly become entrained in the storm as it moves east. This combined with some lingering instability could mean accumulating snow showers Tuesday as temperatures fall below the freezing mark.

Another system is likely to quickly cross the country during the middle of the week and it will be energized by a fairly violent clash in airmasses between the southward push of cold and the lingering warmth in the southern states. The moisture with this storm system is likely going to impact areas well to our south unfortunately. After a round of what we hope will be some accumulating snow showers Tuesday, dry weather will win the day for the later part of the week. It will however remain very cold with temperatures on the mountain remaining below freezing for an extended period of time. The cold weather will continue through next weekend which should provide the opportunity for another shot some new snow. Overall the teleconnection indices are very mixed. They are favorable at the moment but the NAO and AO will become conflicted within a week or so with the AO turning positive and the NAO remaining negative.

Powder Sunday in an otherwise unexciting week

2011-03-11T11:50:00.002-05:00

A decaying area of moisture associated with a eastward advancing clipper system will help the region out a bit late Saturday into Sunday. It had looking a day or two ago as the energy and moisture with this system might move to our south but we will see some fluffy snow beginning Saturday evening and persisting through early Sunday. The snow may begin as rain in low lying areas and could fall as a wet snow even at the base. Colder temperatures on Sunday however should be able to change most of the snow to a powdery consistency by Sunday morning with a elevation sensitive 2-5 inches expected by the middle of the day.

The snow early Sunday is the last we can expect for at least a week or so. The cold weather on Sunday will last through Monday and into early Tuesday before temperatures make another surge into the middle and high 30's Tuesday afternoon. This will set the state for a fairly mild end of the week. Some showers are possible Wednesday but the front associated with any rain is a weak one and is not expected to bring any arctic cold south. This means temperatures are likely to reach the 40's Wednesday and Thursday and could best 50 Friday or Saturday. In short, it will be spring conditions late in the week and choosing days and times when it's not raining. The rain should not be a major concern however since whatever falls Wednesday will be light and although the rain threat moves up again next weekend, models are not indicating a significant storm.

The blocking continues to look more favorable after the 20th of the month although the ensembles at face value do not show a corresponding "cold" signal. At the very least however the blocking should allow for a greater variety of weather at least one good storm toward the end of the month.

Yes rain is still unavoidable but we steal a powder day Thursday

2011-03-08T20:25:00.003-05:00

With the snow under the single "preserved" one extra day there were some epic turns to be had Tuesday and it looks like plenty of skiers enjoyed it. On Wednesday it will be more of the same with great visibility, little if any wind and at the minimum, a half a day of sunshine before clouds from our next approaching system envelop the region.

Our next storm has been talked about for several posts and mostly in an unflattering way. Overall the storm still looks rather "unflattering" yet the surge of colder weather now firmly entrenched over the region will not give it up so easily this time. This essentially will equate to an extra day of great turns and some fresh powder as well as precipitation Thursday will begin around daybreak in the form of snow. The snow should fall steadily and for much of the day. The question during the day involves the personality of the snow Thursday since temperatures will gradually rise throughout the day as the cold air erodes. It appears for at least Thursday morning that the snow will remain dry with temperatures in the low to mid 20's. Later in the day temperatures are expected to approach the freezing mark and if the snow is still falling it will turn wet. Then we go to freezing rain and rain but not until 4-7 inches of additional snow and not until after closing.

The rain is going to be a steady one and at times a heavy one with over an inch expected. Temperatures will approach the 40 degree mark with dewpoints not far behind so it will not completely devastate the base, but over an inch of rain is significant and it will certainly leave its mark.

The rain will be over and done with Friday evening and will be replaced by flurries and snow showers Friday night into early Saturday. In the wake of all the rain comes a clipper system, a system that is likely to dump most of its moisture on the Great Lakes before diving southeast. There may not be much moisture available to us but whatever is left will fall in the form of snow showers on Sunday along with below freezing temperatures. The cold weather will perist through Tuesday and then we can expect a big thaw consisting of temperatures in the 40's and 50's and perhaps some more rain late in the week. The surge of warmth next week will coincide with a long awaited switch in our teleconnection indices. This should encourage some interesting weather for the last 10 days of the month but we will see.

Strengthening wave of low pressure delivers big snow for MRG

2011-03-06T17:32:00.003-05:00

The third in a series of low pressure centers that have formed along this very slow moving front has brought snow to the region and a lot more of it than we would have thought a few days ago. The storm became stronger and more mature and models have picked up on this trend in the late going. The combination of heavy snow through Sunday night and temperatures in the teens and 20's is going to turn Monday into one of the better powder days of the year. This allows the last few days to fit very well into the traditions of New England weather-lore. An awful and depressing rain Sunday followed by one of the better storms of the year. Overall, the 12-20 inches will rank this storm close to the top for 2011 and below-freezing temperatures through the middle of the week should allow for a few days of good turns before our next system later in the week.

Big rains Sunday but some snow to follow for Monday

2011-03-04T22:43:00.002-05:00

A large upper ridge is well entrenched across the east coast and this is allowing very mild weather to push well into interior sections of New England. We do have a storm trying to break this pesky feature down but it is running into a brick wall as it progresses east. The result will be an unfortunate rain which will begin Saturday evening and will be quite heavy for a time during the day Sunday. After over an inch of rain, a cold front will mercifully make its push through Vermont and bring colder weather and... a little winter weather Sunday night. The snow will come as a result from a wave of low pressure, one of many which will form along the above-mentioned slow moving front but this one will move to our right as opposed to our left. The transition to snow may be gradual with rain changing to a freezing rain and sleet mixture Sunday evening and then going to all snow by daybreak Monday. We could see a couple hours of fairly heavy snow before precipitation moves off to our northeast. Overall this system is an impressive one for its total precipitation. Over an inch of rain as I mentioned and then several inches of sleet and snow.

The return to winter in Vermont will last a few days but we can't rid ourselves of this extremely adverse pattern. The next system late this week will thus be forced to conform to the same guidelines as the previous two which will mean another push of mild weather and potentially more ice and rain. In the case of this upcoming week, the approaching weather system Thursday will encounter a more resistant form of cold air giving us a shot at some snow late in the week but its just a chance and the more likely result is something more undesirable.

Tough headwinds continue to lay ahead

2011-03-01T20:53:00.002-05:00

A amplified pattern energized by the current La Nina will continue to have the mountain playing defense. We did manage to fight off one non-snow event rather well this past Monday and a light dusting of snow Wednesday with some much below normal temperatures to follow for Thursday will keep winter on the front page for now. We may even squeeze a decent ski day out of Saturday as overrunning precipitation well out in advance of next disconcerting weather system brings some snow to the region. The snow Saturday morning could accumulate a few inches prior to first tracks time although we may have to iron out the details in a later post.

The muscle with this next system will be meandering across center of the nation Friday but unfortunately, the persistent upper trough in the west will get a major re-enforcing thrust of jet energy and will consequently allow for the southeast ridge to get a big boost. Mild air will flood the region and is likely going to do it at the low and mid levels of the atmosphere Sunday allowing for a period of rain following some possible ice Saturday night. As time progresses this storm will get stretched out a bit as it tries to break down the above-mentioned ridge. If it does so efficiently we may see rain change to a period of accumulating snow late Sunday into Monday.

We can expect a day or two of colder weather during the early part of next week but another similar looking system will look to take a similar track during the middle of next week. This system has a slightly better chance of delivering winter weather but the chances for an all snow event in a pattern such as this is low and I would expect some additional ice or a period of rain.

Pattern to unleash at least two ice/rain events before its done

2011-02-26T12:59:00.002-05:00

We had a nice little storm Friday and we will get some additional snows tonight which will be about enough for a few nice turns early tomorrow. In addition, those ambitious enough to extend the holiday week by a day could get rewarded with a few nice turns early Monday. Monday's storm has very little cold air to work with though it does bring with it a lot of moisture and warm air which is not the combination we are looking for. The latest cycle of model runs however is allowing some precipitation to work into Vermont before the cold weather has completely expired. This could very well result in a period of snow for the mountain early Monday, enough for a few inches and certainly a few good runs on the mountain before we ultimately go to freezing rain or rain during the middle part of the day. Temperatures will only reach the high 30's late Monday into Monday night but we still expect about a half inch or ice/rain which will be damaging although not catastrophic.

There are also some indications that the storm Monday/Tuesday could turn a little "anafrontal" over New England which essentially allows precipitation to continue falling even after the passage of a cold front. Some new snow could result from this Tuesday but there are no indications that this will amount to anything of significance. We will see winter-like temps during the middle and even later part of the week. The cold front Tuesday will send temperatures closer to normal and then a reinforcing shot of cold may bring an inch or two of snow late Wednesday or early Thursday and then bring 2 days of below normal temperatures before more trouble starts for the weekend.

The first full weekend in March will feature another major push of milder temperatures. Although some overrunning snow is possible as we transition out of the grips of arctic air, temperatures should get pretty warm both afternoons next weekend. In addition another system should spread rain into the region Sunday or Monday the 8th and it could be a much warmer rain verses what we will see on the last day of February. A brief cool down early next week will be short-lived and give way to another push of warmth around the 10th of March and another rain event could be included.

I realize this is the one of the more negative outlooks that has come from the SCWB. If your searching for some good news, there may be some by the middle of March as the unfavorable teleconnections are finally showing signs of making at least a partial switch. If the mountain can survived the next 10-12 days, winter could give an encore performance before we transition to spring.

Quick moving but powerful storm will dump on MRG

2011-02-24T20:36:00.002-05:00

I would advise getting out and enjoying this one if you can as March looks like it will start in a bad way for us skiers and a good way if your waiting for a warm-up.

This storm will be not far from Louisville, KY early Friday morning and then strengthen quickly as it rapidly makes its way toward the Gulf of Maine where it will strengthen to sub-990 mb by early Saturday morning. Were it not for the speed at which this storm is expected to move, it would certainly be our best of the year. It will nonetheless still be good thump and the region should get some good winds as well Friday evening into the night before quickly abating Saturday. Most importantly is the snow however which will begin around midday Friday and turn very heavy by the evening with lots of blowing and drifting making for very adverse travel. The heavy snow should slacken to flurries by midnight and be done with by Saturday. The blowing will certainly wind pack the snow but it will also ensure that Saturday features plenty of powder especially in the trees which are less exposed to the wind. Total accumulations will be around a foot or so but it will be tough to measure because of the drifting.

Saturday will be dry and chilly and should feature at least a period of sunshine although temperatures will struggle to reach the teens. As promised however we will have another shot at snow Saturday night as a weak wave of low pressure along a developing warm front spreads overrunning precipitation into the region. Accumulations will be on the lighter side since this system is certainly on the much weaker side. It would be wise however to enjoy whatever falls because things could get ugly in a hurry.

If your keeping score at home you might have noticed the sea of negatives in our little favorability tracker. We have managed this recent pattern with a mix of good and bad including the major thaw last week and the big storm we expect tomorrow. The possibility of a third thumping of powder in 4 days though has come crashing down however as warm air will flood the region at mid-levels Monday and precipitation which could start as ice will likely go to a period of rain. I had held out a little hope on for Monday but there is no fresh supply of cold to be had and warm air from the pesky southeast ridge will run through our defenses. Our hope at this point is for the storm to attain a negative tilt as it matures Monday enabling wrap around and terrain induced snow to impact the mountain for the first of March. Right now the event looks to be primarily ice and rain with up to a half inch of liquid.

A couple of days of wintry weather should follow for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame next week and a clipper could bring some fresh snow to the region during the middle of the week. As the week continues to progress however the pattern will begin to amplify in a not so ideal way confining cold and snow exclusively to the western states and producing some very mild conditions in the east by the first weekend in March. It could, if you buy into the ensembles at face value be extremely mild with near record breaking warmth. It would mean good spring skiing but I am not sure I want to see a thaw of this magnitude so early in March.

Cold air to win the day Friday as battle lines shift south

2011-02-22T23:34:00.002-05:00

With La Nina still prevalent and the blocking all but gone, it has been an all out war the very mild temperatures situated over the southeast and the cold air which has held firm across Canada. Much like February of 2008, the arctic air has been formidable and held its ground in the face of rather adverse teleconnection indices. On Friday, it is now expected that the push of mild temperatures preceding a fast moving storm system will not be enough to bring a rain or even a significant icing event to MRG. Even late in the game there remains some glaring uncertainty about the outcome in Friday's storm but we have enough info to make a very educated guess. The European model remains the warmest of all solutions yet the latest simulations continue to shift the track of this, quick-paced but strong storm system to the south so that it would track over central New England. Such a scenario could mean that any initial icing would be brief Friday morning and early afternoon and precipitation would go quickly to a thumping snow and yield a powder day Saturday. The American GFS model has also shifted its track of this storm south and is now showing minimal precipitation in central and northern Vermont. The Canadian model; well, it would prefer a compromise and such would also mean snow Friday afternoon and into the night and a beautiful powder day for Saturday. Although by no means is the game decided, I certainly like the players that are on the field who are certainly capable of conservatively yielding a 6-12 inch event. Without the GFS's support, many forecast services out there will be hesitant to hype this storm so lets watch and wait and see how things transpire. For now I am optimistic.

I am afraid to call Friday's storm the beginning of another "powder train" but it is the first chance and certainly not the last chance for snow in the next 7 days. The second chance comes late Saturday into Sunday. This system should be a less potent one but one that should without question bring powder as opposed to any other form of precipitation. The uncertainty here is how much and this will depend on how efficiently this late blooming system chooses to go about organizing itself. This series of systems are all products of this highly baraclinic which will oscillate between the Tennessee and Ohio Valley's.

We will have a shot at the trifecta early next week as much more moist and powerful storm system attacks the northeast. The "trifecta" however will be a challenge since this system will throw a lot of warm air in our direction as it approaches. Unless a southward push of cold is timed correctly, the cold weather can vanish incredibly quickly without the help of high latitude blocking which currently doesn't and is not expected to exist. Still, none of the indications show a track that would completely dash our hopes with this third storm. If this powerful storm can continue to mature as it moves through New England it can manufacture its own cold air and ultimately bring more snow to the mountain before it exits even if we get a period of unwanted precipitation at the start or in the middle.

Its exciting times to be a weather nut, it should be a very interesting week.

Active pattern going forward will yield either "mixed" or very good results

2011-02-20T23:42:00.004-05:00

The bad news would be our short term outlook which was not helped by the disappointing terrain induced event Saturday and will also not be helped by the current system which will collapse southward and will mostly avert the region. This weather event which had so much promise as it exited the rocky mountain west advertising the potential for an extended period of overrunning snow will bring only a brief period of snow to southern New England and will merely dust up central and northern Vermont with a light accumulation. This systems potential was destroyed by a potent polar jet disturbance which got involved at the wrong time and will force the storms energy to sag south. It will keep the cold weather well entrenched across the region as temperatures plummet to 10 below by Tuesday morning before recovering into the teens during the day thanks to sunshine.

The good news would be the continuous train of storms which we expect over the next week and a half or so. It is a classic La Nina set up with both cold weather and plenty of pacific energy across the western half of the nation pressing against the relative warmth of a southeast U.S. upper ridge. The arctic air is proving formidable however and has been fighting the good fight (even though it was too good of a fight in the case of the current system). The first such potential event is Friday, a weather system talked about in the last post as a storm the models failed to yield any decisive answers on. The European continuous to give the "wrong" answer by allowing the storm to track close to the St Lawrence valley thus bringing ice into the region Friday. The GFS continues to show a nice powder event for the region as it did a few days ago. The recent runs of the Euro however were a little farther south however and we would need this storm to track another 100 miles south and the results would be more fruitful.

Two additional storm systems will also garner speculation after the Friday event. The first has the possibility of delivering snow Sunday or Monday and another during the middle of the week. As mentioned Friday, a contradictory set of indicators exists with the teleconnection indices now indicating a very unfavorable blocking regime although the various ensembles show a somewhat cold scenario for mainly the northern tier of the United States. It is this clash which is likely which is the cause of the very active weather and we can only hope the snow from all these storms falls over northern Vermont.

Holday week looks much better

2011-02-18T09:39:00.002-05:00

Saturday will bring a return to colder temperatures but the stars are aligning for a terrain induced powder event and perhaps one of the better ones we have seen this year. The return to colder temperatures will not eliminate either the low level moisture or instability. The key in these types of events which are is for a minimal amount of directional shear in the lower part of the troposphere and for a deep layer of instability extending hopefully ten thousand feet up in the atmosphere. Deep is a relative term because ten thousand feet would not be considered a deep thunderstorm cloud but such a layer in the winter can produce a large amount of perfect skiing powder. Saturday appears to be a day where all this can happen. Light to moderate snow should persist through a good chunk of the day and a fluffy 5-10 inches is very very possible. Such a snowfall would be very very very much needed in light of how firm the mountain will be as temperatures turn colder after the recent warmth.

The snow should be over and done with for Sunday and temperatures will remain in the seasonable category but the talk of more snow will remain as a more organized storm system promises to impact the region early in the holiday week. This is a storm which pummel the mountain west with snow before exiting the eastern Rockies Sunday. The storm will be a front-runner and will have a warm front and associated overrunning surface extending well over 1,000 miles east of the low pressure center. Given the expected track of this weather system, it is the right kind of storm to deliver another needed dose of snow if we can avoid any mid-level, above-freezing intrusion capable of changing precipitation to that dreaded icy mixture. For the time being, it looks like that will happen as snow should begin in the pre-dawn hours Monday and continue into the day. Models are not indicating a huge accumulation but 3-5 additional inches would make for the second powder day in 3 days.

The mountain will face more adversity later in the week. Remember, are indices are still decidedly unfavorable and this leaves the door open for another push of warm weather as the week progresses. Both Tuesday and Wednesday look dry and seasonable with temperatures ranging between 10 in the mornings and 25 in the afternoons. Tuesday will feel colder thanks to blustery northwest winds. Later in the week however another in a series of systems in the mountain west will move east and may try to take the unpopular St Lawrence Valley route. This is hardly a settled issue and the American GFS model has indicated that the system may track farther south and keep winter in place across northern Vermont. A subsequent update will have to tackle some of these key unknowns but for now I would guess on a slight warm-up for Thursday followed by mixed precipitation Thursday night into Friday.

The pattern beyond Friday continues to look incredibly energetic across the west as a continuous series of vicious storms hammers the mountain west. It will likely create an epic powdery scenario for the Central Rockies and will continue to make it challenging for eastern areas. This being said the recent ensemble members are generally showing a colder signal when compared to the upcoming week hopefully indicating a storm track that will be a bit further south.

50-degree temperature rise in 36 hours set for the middle of the week

2011-02-13T23:59:00.003-05:00

The clipper system talked about a few days ago will move along the St Lawrence Valley Monday. This track is a bit too far north for big snow since the storm's associated jet max quadrants are too far north. Nonetheless the mountain will see snow in the form of snow showers on Monday and then a short period of moderate to heavy snow Monday night. Although the storm will only yield a few inches it will turn viciously cold Tuesday morning. This blast of cold is a special delivery for the northeast with interior New England as the almost exclusive recipient. So while much of the U.S. prepares for near record warmth, Mad River will be well below zero Tuesday morning with wind chills at least 30 below. If you can brave it, you can expect some nice wind blown powder Tuesday . The wind will abate Tuesday night and after another chilly overnight featuring sub-zero readings temperatures will warm dramatically and exceed the freezing mark by the afternoon Wednesday. On Thursday, readings will surge into the 40's and could even reach 50 on Friday.

This brings us to the holiday weekend and the week that follows. Many times in Vermont, big thaws are ended by big rains but it does not appear this will happen in this case. We should see some rain later Friday or early Saturday but not the base destroyer of an inch or more. The pool of instability in the wake of the potential rain event should bring terrain induced snows back to the mountain either Saturday or Sunday and thus the road back to (hopefully) glory begins. I was encouraged with the ensemble runs over the past day which although yet to endorse a full switch in the teleconnection indices back to favorable have at least allowed things to get "interesting" next week. The talk will likely surround a mid-week storm which is likely to take dead aim at the region. It will likely be a classic La Nina style clash of cold arctic air positioned across eastern Canada and mild temperatures across the Mid Atlantic and southeastern states. Any big storm remains a long way off but our much talked about thaw will end by the end of the week and a sustained stretch of winter-like temperatures will follow hopefully accompanied by snow.

Powder machine still engaged but February thaw still in the cards for late next week

2011-02-11T11:08:00.002-05:00

I apologize for getting the holiday weeks mixed up since I know its a big one for many of the MRG faithful. The weekend (12th and 13th) is still shaping up to be a real winner. We won't be dealing with any major weather system but a series of impulses or undulations in the polar jet will keep the powder coming through Monday night. The first brings some powder for Saturday. It won't be much and it does not appear like any will fall Friday night but I would expect a few fluffy inches during the day Saturday with perhaps a fresh inch by first tracks time. The second is a much stronger disturbance and is probably the strongest version of a clipper we can see across interior New England. This system will get aided by the fact that the cold air will be in the process of retreating northward thus providing the natural overrunning surface necessary for accumulating snow. Ideally the track of this storm would be about 50-100 miles further south so although we are in line to receive several inches, 4-8, between Sunday night and Monday the heaviest snow will probably stay north of I89 or north of the Waterbury to Littleton, NH line.

In the wake of the snow Monday comes one more mini blast of chill before a major push of warm weather that should exceed the thaw we saw around the new year. Temps on Tuesday morning will start below zero and remain below freezing through Wednesday. By Thursday afternoon however, the mercury will surge into the 40's and readings could remain above freezing for at least a two day stretch.

This brings us to the holiday weekend. There is no question that we will have to battle through some rather unfavorable teleconnection indices with the byproducts including the unsettled weather confined to western North America and a formidable southeast upper ridge which will invariably push mild air to the north. With this disclaimer out there, cold weather will be relatively close in eastern Canada, close enough to perhaps push into northern Vermont and New England ahead of the next major storm system next weekend. Granted I am not optimistic for any major snow but the pattern does remind me a lot of early February 08 which appeared to all the world like a skiing disaster only later to turn into skiing paradise as arctic air was able to make an 11th hour push into Vermont and snow fell instead of the expected ice and rain. So we can keep our eyes on it even though it doesn't look good as of now.

I think we should see some slight improvements as we progress through the holiday week. The NAO and AO will not be fighting us so ambitiously (they will be near zero to start the week) although the PNA will continue to remain very negative and the weather that results will fit nicely into the La Nina stereotype. The Pacific Northwest will see its share of storms with both snow and rain, the cold weather will mostly be confined to northern North America which means mostly Canada and most areas east of the Mississippi will see mild temperatures. The exception to this will be the Great Lakes and New England which will remain on the fence throughout which means a rain event could be quickly followed by a snow event. We have an enormous amount of snow on the ground across the eastern United States and the Great Lakes have a lot of ice on them which includes an almost frozen Lake Huron. This could encourage the boundary between warm and cold to be a bit further south than what is currently predicted but time will tell.

4 of next 6 days could include some fresh powder

2011-02-07T22:48:00.003-05:00

With 6-10 falling by Tuesday evening and some additional light snow or flurries Tuesday night yielding an inch or two. Then on Wednesday night or Thursday morning, a weak impulse will produce some terrain induced powder which will be good for a few inches. Temperatures will remain on the chilly side beginning Tuesday night and persisting through much of the weekend but readings will remain tolerable for skiing rising to around 10 or so on the mountain on each afternoon through Friday and then to 15 on Saturday.

As I mentioned we continue to have a good chance for more snow over the weekend. A weak clipper Friday night into Saturday would be the catalyst for a light fluff-up for the early part of the weekend but I still like the idea of several more inches Sunday as advancing milder temperatures clashes with the cold weather over New England providing the key ingredient of an overrunning surface. Expectations could change of course depending on how these various weather features evolve (there are more than a few) so stay tuned.

Milder temperatures are still expected to prevail during the holiday week. So far there are no hard indications of any ice or rain but the threat is alive. For the next 7 days though the powder should keep us in good spirits. Enjoy !!

6-10 inches of snow for Monday night into Tuesday, possibly more for the upcoming weekend

2011-02-06T14:19:00.003-05:00

The snow Monday night comes from a storm which had a real chance to do even bigger things. We were hoping that a new area of low pressure would form off the coast and re-energize this system while pumping Atlantic moisture into Vermont. Low pressure will indeed form off the coast but way off the coast and our snow will have to come as a result of a much weaker area of low pressure which will advance up from the Tennessee Valley Monday and will ultimately be swallowed by the larger Atlantic system offshore Tuesday. Light snow will likely be falling for much of the day Monday with light accumulations by the evening. The snow will intensify Monday night and could turn briefly heavy prior to first tracks time Tuesday. The snow from this storm will be of the more powdery variety as opposed to some of the very wet weekend snow. Tuesday shapes up to be a real winner although colder temperatures combined with blustery northwest winds will make for a chilly finale to the day.

We had talked about the possibility for a second storm later in the week as the colder temperatures are re-enforced one last time. There is good agreement however that this storm will track well to our south and that primarily dry and cold weather will prevail through the remainder of the week. I think the weekend however appears a little snowier as the eroding cold weather will provide for a good overrunning surface for additional snows. Its a bit difficult to pinpoint the most powdery days at this point but between Saturday and Sunday, a fresh 6 inches on the mountain is certainly possible.

The President's day holiday will bring a different pattern and one that will include retreating arctic air. We may successfully avoid an all out spring thaw but we will likely see at least 2 days of 40-degree temperatures between the 15th and 21st of the month and we could very well see some rain as well.

Powder train has 2 storms on the immediate horizon including some surprise powder for Sunday

2011-02-04T12:25:00.002-05:00

An innocent looking area of precipitation near the Gulf Coast has not been so innocent over Houston where freezing rain has been the grand finale to an incredibly cold week. The cold was so extreme and invaded Texas with such ferocity that power plants that are not equipped to handle those kind of temperatures tripped off line and the power grid was left with a massive electricity generation shortage on a day with heating demand. Over time, a more organized area of low pressure will form across the Carolinas and move quickly northeast toward New England later Saturday. The relatively cold airmass situated over the region now will become quite stale by late Saturday allowing temperatures to become quite comfortable by the afternoon after a cold start in spite of the advancing clouds. The snow will arrive overnight and temperatures in the low lying areas will be warm enough so that much of the snow is of the wetter variety. On the mountain though the snow will be powder and will begin during the evening and end very early Sunday morning or at least taper to flurries. Its not a huge dump but certainly one that looked more unlikely a few days ago and certainly enough (4-6 inches) for a powder day Sunday.

As discussed in some previous posts, we have lost the support of our teleconnection indices. For now however you wouldn't know it. The pattern over the next week will include storms and big intrusions of cold. This all occurs as the existing ridge-trough pattern has two big amplifications left in the gas tank. The first brings a significant area of low pressure with it which will strengthen across the Midwest and bring more snow to the mountain Monday night. Most of the runs up through now have suggested that there not a major injection of Atlantic moisture with this storm although the European which is just coming out as I write this is finally showing just as the storm is indicated to re-position off the coast. Either way, Tuesday sets up to be a big winner with either a moderate amount or a lot of powder. I'll take those options any day.

In the wake of Tuesday's snow comes the cold which will be with us for the duration of the week. Temperatures will range from zero to 10 below in the mornings and may only climb to near 10 during the afternoons. This second amplification later in the week may bring the coldest weather of the season so far by Friday and Saturday. The American model would have us believing that this second intrusion of cold will not be accompanied by snow but the Euro is doing it again by allowing for another albeit weaker blossoming of the southeast ridge and thus allowing a storm to ride up into the Tennessee Valley and eventually toward the southern New England. This would be a dreamy and very powdery scenario that would result in one of the more epic weeks of skiing in recent memory for MRG.

Yes its cold then for Friday into early Saturday but a potentially big moderation in temperatures begins for the weekend into the early part of the presidents day holiday. As the arctic air shifts west, temperatures may turn above normal for a period and we may be playing a bit of defense against the advancing warm air and some other things that i really would prefer not to mention. This is a long way off and there are plenty of reasons to be happy until then. Enjoy the powder over the next week there should be plenty of it!!

1-2 feet of snow and some strong winds Wednesday

2011-02-02T00:25:00.002-05:00

Moderate to heavy snow should persist through the day Wednesday before tapering to lighter snows Wednesday evening. The very strong storm will have reached its peak intensity across Midwest but will remain formidable as it rather briskly proceeds to the New England coast. Its rapid movement means that snowfall accumulations will be in a slightly lower range verses what we had mentioned in the previous past. Nonetheless, we will have wind blown powder with periodic heavy snow Wednesday. Winds will become northerly and diminish somewhat Thursday as flurries continue. Temperatures will remain chilly through Friday then moderate significantly by Saturday afternoon. We are watching another system albeit a much weaker one for Saturday night into Sunday. This system has the potential to bring some snow by first tracks Sunday. More on this after a good nights rest. Enjoy the powder

Our turn !!! Mountain to get full impact of major winter storm this week

2011-01-30T10:13:00.003-05:00

It has been long overdue but our time has finally come. A big surge of arctic air in the Plains will clash with very warm moist air from the gulf and the byproduct will be an intense winter storm. The effects will be very broad across the middle part of the country Tuesday into Wednesday as many cities such as Kansas City, St Louis and Chicago may see a historic snow. There was speculation amongst some that this would eventually turn into another major snow for the I95 corridor and considering the intensity of the storm some of this talk was perhaps justified. This particular system though will track across lower Ohio eventually hug the south coast of New England and move out over the Atlantic thus sparing the big cities any big snow.

This storm will resist attempts at reaching full maturation while over the Midwest and maintain a slightly positive tilt as moisture reaches northern Vermont and this is a very key element to our success. If the storm were to wrap itself up and occlude over the Midwest it suck mild air into the east coast and we would meet our doom rather quickly. A rather intense jet streak or confluence area across eastern Canada will prevent such an occurrence and the mountain will instead reep the benefits of the clash in moist conveyor belts. Snow will begin during the day Tuesday as overrunning precipitation extends well out in advance of the low pressure center. It will continue through the night Tuesday, through Wednesday while at times becoming quite intense and finally taper to flurries Thursday. So long as everything goes according to plan, accumulations of 20-30 inches on the mountain would be my expectation with big time powder days both Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will remain on the chilly side through the week and particularly late Thursday into Friday in the wake of the storm. The weekend should see readings rebound back into the 20's during the afternoons. There have been hints that another storm may form near the Virginia tidewater and make a run up the east coast Sunday morning but there have been yet to be any indications that this will result in any big snow for MRG. An early guess on the first full week of February is that the week begins with temperatures on the milder side, we see some snow and then temperatures turn very cold as intense arctic chill in Canada sneaks into New England. Teleconnection indices have turned on us somewhat as mentioned in the last post so although we still expect to see some cold, conditions could turn very changeable and a thaw in the first two weeks of February is possible.

For now lets enjoy this one since we have waited a long time for one like this.

Most of weekend clipper system to go south, big storm possible next week

2011-01-28T11:53:00.002-05:00

To be perfectly frank, I was a little down watching another foot of snow fall in New York city. Don't get me wrong, when I live in NYC, which i did for several years, I enjoyed a big snow more than anyone. I don't live there now though and I would much rather here about snow, thundersnow and three inch per hour snow somewhere in the vicinity of the single chair as opposed to the big metros. The snow in the big cities this year has caught many prognosticators by surprise. Conventional wisdom, as mentioned many times on the blog would have the general storm track in a La Nina year much farther north. Its also a little frustrating that most of the moisture with the incoming clipper will track south of the region while more or less fall apart. The mountain will get sporadic light snow or flurries and this will amount to 1-3 inches during the day Saturday. More flurries are likely Sunday but it won't amount to much.

A more "traditional" La Nina picture will emerge next week and I expect the mountain should do rather well powder-wise as a result. There was some strong evidence on the Euro Ensembles earlier this week of a southeast ridge manifestation and a storm to go along with it. This weather would gather healthy amounts of Gulf Moisture and travel up through the eastern Ohio Valley and eventually off the northeast coast. This would be a nice track for a general swath of 10-20 inch snows across the Green and White moutais in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame of next week after a very cold and dry start to the week Monday and Tuesday. The storm remains 5-6 days out and the trend this year has been for every storm to track farther south so lets not count our chickens. For now, it does look promising for a nice "powder" period late next week.

For the first time this year really, the collection of teleconnection indices which add to produce our "favorability index" will turn negative. The PNA had taken the lead in the recent weeks as a western ridge extending deep into the high latitudes helped to bring the recent surge of cold and keep the snow falling and the rain away (although recent days have been dry). The PNA is expected to go negative beginning next week as the above-mentioned western ridge shifts west off the Pacific Coast and both the AO and NAO are expected to remain positive. We have been overdue for this shift but the silver lining in all this news is that the ensembles have (all of them) continue to show a signal of below normal temps and a somewhat decisive signal I must admit. The coldest weather is shown to impact much of the eastern part of Canada (which has been amazingly warm so far this winter) and some of this cold is indicated to keep New England in the grips of some winter chill. If this shift in the weather pattern means nothing more than shifting the storm track slightly to the north than the bad news is actually good news. In reality though, the threat of ice or rain goes up in this type of set-up so we should be ready for almost anything.

Midweek storm likely to push off shore

2011-01-24T23:13:00.002-05:00

Although the mountain will pick up snow from a decaying clipper Tuesday, the rare 2011 southern branch system which had showed some promise will bring its moisture into a cold but very stale arctic air mass. The storm will help to envelop relative Atlantic Ocean warmth to coastal areas and will fail to make the northward push necessary to yield any significant snow Thursday across the central and northern Green Mountains. An 11th hour northward tick in the track could result in a few inches but that would be the high side of an expected range.

The good news is that two more potent weather systems elevate the powder potential over the next week to ten days. The first is a fierce clipper system which will pave the way for the next surge of arctic cold across the Great Lakes and northeast late on Saturday and early on Sunday. A few inches of powder is certainly in the cards by Sunday morning as a result of that. The second would arrive during the early to middle part of next week and would hypothetically form along a tight north to south temperature gradient as mild and moist gulf air tries to force the arctic chill into a retreat. The second in particular is a long way off but worth tracking.

Another big east coast storms brings familar question marks and uncertainty

2011-01-22T22:30:00.002-05:00

A very frozen interior New England will see temperatures moderate to more reasonable levels by the middle of next week but all eyes will be focused on another major east coast system which intends to slowly gather strength across the southeast on Tuesday and move up the coast Wednesday. This storm brings all sorts of question marks with it no matter where you live. Until then though we can look forward to some lighter snows that we feel more certain about. A decaying clipper system will move swiftly through the Great Lakes and brings some limited moisture to the region Tuesday. This is a very typical occurrence for interior New England following a blast of extreme cold. Attempts at a quick warm-up typically provide the region with a natural overrunning surface and it will thus find a way to snow. I expect a few inches during the day Tuesday but I doubt enough we will have much at first tracks time, it will more than likely be powdered to be enjoyed in the afternoon or during the early morning on Wednesday.

Now to the questions regarding this potential massive east coast system. One of the key ingredients for any major east coast snow event is a cold air damming signature created as arctic air becomes entrenched along the east. We certainly have such a case Monday with extreme cold very much in place Monday. The system in question though is indicated to take its sweet time in its west to east movement Monday not helped certainly by the weakened southern branch of the jet (no El Nino this year). When it finally develops and proceeds up the east coast Wednesday, much of the arctic air will be very stale and many coastal areas could actually see rain. This is not a concern for interior locations of New England such as MRG. The big issue at this time is the recent trends seen in the model data that have this system moving farther off shore. A track close to the coast and hopefully through that critical window between Boston and the cape can mean a big result for us MRG powder hounds later Wednesday into Thursday. We will watch how this unfolds and hope. We deserve a big storm to play in and at some point one of these battles will go our way.

The month should finish and February should start with plenty on the dinner table. The driving force behind the pattern so far this has been the negative Arctic Oscillation and frequent dips in the NAO. The PNA has really not made much of a contribution until now. The Pacific North American oscillation index has surged into positive territory thanks to the development of a ridge across the west coast. This is the feature necessary for more outbreaks of extreme cold mixed in with more weather. It should result in much of the weather we expected this winter with blasts of extreme cold mixed in with weather, most of which should be good but a brief thaw can certainly interject itself into the picture. Overall I remain very upbeat about several powder days in the next two weeks

Blast of extreme cold to hit Vermont

2011-01-20T23:27:00.003-05:00

If you intend to take advantage of the several inches of fresh powder this weekend bundle up. Vermont has escaped the cold weather through all of last winter and most of this winter but no more. New England will be front and center for the cold this weekend which will slowly settle into the region late on Friday and peak out Monday. Temperatures will be close to zero Saturday morning with 20 below wind chills and between Sunday morning and Tuesday morning readings are likely to remain below zero with wind chills 40 below. Readings Monday morning of -20 will be easily the coldest since 2009. The cold will relent next week and we will shift our focus to a major east coast system which will evolve out of the massive cold air damming signature. This system has many question marks but for Vermont it remains mostly a "snow or no" during the middle of next week. More on this tomorrow.

Several inches of snow Tuesday, only a brief period of rain Tuesday

2011-01-17T16:36:00.002-05:00

Another couple rounds of model data have allowed us to fine tune the forecast and the fine tuning has a bit of good news. Snow should begin on schedule tomorrow but it appears some of the deeper moisture associated with the developing Atlantic system will move into north-central Vermont while temperatures are still supportive for snow. To make an attempt at exactitude, lets say about 10 AM for a start with snow falling at a moderate intensity by early afternoon. By early evening we should have at least 3-6 inches of snow on the ground while we try and fight off the surge of mid-level warmth that will have temperatures close to the freezing mark at about 7,000 feet.

This critical layer of warming looks thinner on the latest cycle runs and perhaps thin enough and weak enough so that we can avoid a deadly period of freezing rain. A mixture of snow and sleet, which is pretty much the best case scenario would still have the effect of locking down some of our deepened base without the problematic breakable crust. Its too close to call at this point so lets just say it can go either way.

Moving on to later in the week where the SCWB has teased about another significant snow producer. Indeed we are starting to establish a much better consensus on a storm which should track out of the southern Rockies Wednesday and proceed across the country during the day Friday. The storm appears to be a late bloomer, like many east coast storms. Precipitation will appear scattered and disorganized across the Great Lakes but intensify as the storm begins the deepen off the New Jersey coast. This particular system will get a big kick in the rear end by the incoming polar jet and will proceed very quickly out into the maritimes. Its track however, which we think right now is over Cape Cod, would have us getting several inches of the good stuff by Friday first tracks. The disclaimer here is the cold. It is finally our turn to get the full onslaught of winter's chill. We will get what some might call a "foreshock" Thursday with temperatures near 10 on the mountain but temperatures will plummet to near zero in the wake of any snow Friday and fall to between -10 and -20 each of the two weekend mornings.

A positive PNA will become the driver of a still favorable pattern beyond the 23rd of the month and likely to the end of the month. There is likely at least one more big snow producer in the mix during this time frame as temperatures try to moderate. I say "try" because we are likely to see another push of cold at some point during the last week of January but the ensembles at face value indicate that this weekend could be the coldest of the year for much of New England.

La Nina finally showing its face after long absence

2011-01-16T12:52:00.002-05:00

and with it comes a drastic sharpening of the north to south temperature gradient across the United States and a baraclinic area stretching from the Ohio Valley to the northeast early this week. With this comes a significant weather system that start as a disorganized storm in the Midwest early this week but with a big injection of moisture from the Atlantic will evolve into a major precipitation producer across much of New England. This is a very different type of storm than what we have seen this year and much more typical of a storm one might expect in a strong La Nina year such as this one. As mentioned a few days ago, the region will have to survive a tremendous push of mid-level warmth. Temperature cross sections reveal that it might be a tough go, for a time as precipitation is likely to start as a sleet or freezing rain mixture. As the storm over the Atlantic coast continues to push northeast, move over the cape and deepen, precipitation will become heavier and consequently we should see just enough cooling at these critical layers of the atmosphere to see freezing rain and sleet change to snow. It is so close right now it really could go either way, the level of warmth at these middle layers is a few thousand feet thick and temperatures in this layer will only be about 34 so just a slight shift in this progression and we could be all snow.

Precipitation should begin as snow in the midday hours Tuesday and this icy mix, if it does occur will take place in the evening or overnight hours and then we should see another additional period of snow Wednesday morning before everything tapers off. I am going to say about 6-10 inches of snow sleet and some freezing rain right now. My computer is about to run out of batteries so I will expand on the post later to discuss another possible storm later in the week and what still appears to be a favorable pattern lasting into next week.

Snow machine kicking into high gear as pattern finally bears fruit

2011-01-14T11:44:00.003-05:00

New England bomb over-performed, we got unexpected terrain induced powder and we got a nice little clipper that should freshen things up for Sunday. This particular system in a figurative sense, will be a bit too frivolous dealing snow to the Great Lakes region and its moisture will be limited somewhat. The high country of New England can usually do a pretty good job of squeezing out any remaining juice out of almost any clipper and this is no exception. Snow should begin Saturday evening and a very fluffy 4-8 inches should await us Sunday at first tracks time. Temperatures will be chilly relative to what we have seen. Saturday is a little colder temperature wise, particularly in the morning but blustery conditions Sunday will make the back end of the weekend feel colder. Temps on MLK day morning will be the coldest of the season so far with readings close to -10 in the morning.

One of the more interesting systems of the year in terms of impact at MRG will soon take over the discussion for early next week. This storm looks a lot like like a classic La Nina event. Very cold weather will be in place across interior New England but the region will have to hold off a tremendous push of mild weather the middle layers of the troposphere to keep precipitation in the form of snow and it won't be easy. Still a healthy zone of overrunning is what the area needs for a big storm so the potential is there. Model data is disagreeing with the particulars with the American model showing a 6-10 inch snow event during the day Tuesday while the European suggests a change to sleet and freezing rain at some point. A little sleet could be of some use to us as it would "lock up" a base which is starting to build up nicely with all the recent snow.

Colder weather will follow later in the week where a more garden variety snow producing system could be in the cards Thursday or Friday. So if we can get through some of this early week adversity, the skiing could be really fantastic by later next week. Some of the coldest weather of the season might have to be endured as temperatures could struggle to get above 5 on the mountain by the time next weekend rolls around but speaking for myself I can suffer through it to float on a little fresh powder. The following week also looks encouraging. We will lose the NAO and the pattern will get driven more by a slightly positive PNA and slightly negative NAO. Overall this will keep temperatures below normal across New England but at the same time shift the storm track a little farther to the north so we should see at least 1 or 2 weather systems track in our direction. Overall we should see a dramatic tightening of the temperature gradient across the nation which is much more consistent with a La Nina winter and should mean a lot of interesting weather to talk about. Enjoy the powder but never stop thinking snow !!

Eastern Mass slammed with another 1-2 feet while MRG settles for 5-10

2011-01-10T23:33:00.002-05:00

A once very disorganized storm system with one center near the Atlantic Coast and another crossing the Mississippi Valley will converge and subsequently explode off the New Jersey coast. The bombing has forecasters scrambling to catch up since this storm system only a few days ago looked as though it may take a very innocent track into the Atlantic Ocean. Now it appears the storm responsible for the ice and snow over Georgia and the Carolina's will deepen by at least while swallowing its counterpart to the west. An area of light to moderate snow which will impact the Mid Atlantic Tuesday night will become heavy snow over southern New England Wednesday. Light to moderate snow will also make its way into Vermont and reach General Stark around daybreak accumulating perhaps an inch or so by first tracks time. The snow will continue through much of the day before tapering to flurries in the evening. The snow will be of the cold, low density and fluffy variety allowing for the 5-10 inches although a slight shift in the storm track north or south could cause snow totals to be over or under that range.

It may be frustrating to watch the folks in Massachusetts steal our epic snow, but we do have at least two systems over the next week that have a great chance of bearing fruit after Wednesday. After a mostly dry Thursday and Friday, a clipper system will approach from the Great Lakes and spread snow into interior New England late Saturday or early Sunday. The snow from this system might not amount to much but the weakening system will lay the groundwork for a baraclinic or overrunning area to establish itself across the region. This is a very typical looking set up in a La Nina year but glaringly absent this year. If we can get things to go according to plan there will be a zone within this overrunning area that receives periods of light to moderate snow over a several day period. In this case the Sunday to Tuesday time frame could be such a period and a very good one for skiing hopefully.

Much snowier forecast for Tuesday night into Wendesday

2011-01-09T12:00:00.003-05:00

Perhaps the SCWB should downplay every storm in hopes of increasing the chances for snow at MRG because it hasn't been the first time a storm was almost entirely written off only to deliver the goods. It certainly justifies a discussion on every passing storm, even the misses, because in spite of the advances in numerical weather prediction, mother nature never stops throwing curve balls. The two-pronged system mentioned in the last post will wreck some serious havoc as it passes into the southern plains. One piece will move into the southeast and cause icing problems across Georgia and the Carolinas Monday, while the other causes moderate to heavy snow across a broad area of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. The storms disorganized look has certainly kept the skeptics and cynics in business. This surface low in the southeast was expected to move innocently out over the Atlantic leaving the second piece of energy to get torn to pieces by what appeared to be the prevailing influence of the polar jet. Perhaps its influence will not be so prevailing however as the plains low pressure area is now indicated to hold its own and ultimately catch the Atlantic Coast low. It will be a faced paced evolution leaving little time for the storm to become anything historic, but the system will nonetheless strengthen south of Long Island and an area of snow should be allowed to progress north and cover most of the state of Vermont Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now lets keep expectations in the 5-10 inch category, but a stronger storm with a track farther to the north is capable of delivering even more.

On the back of this aforementioned good news is a promising forecast for the weekend. The pattern will be undergoing some changes and the initial results appear to be quite good. Floods in California and cold weather across the southeast have many weather guru's wondering about the influence of the La Nina this year. Indeed it has actually weakened somewhat, barely maintaining its "moderate" stature. This being said, the pattern by next weekend will begin to take on a more classic La Nina look, consisting of cold weather across central and western Canada, drier weather in California and a sharper north to south temperature gradient across eastern third of the country. This should mean weather in our neighborhood and this should include two fast moving systems, the first of which should deliver some snow Saturday the 15th with another possible snow event early next week. Some very intense arctic air will also be on the playing field although its impact should mostly be felt across Canada states immediately bordering Canada across the Great Lakes and Northeast.

The bad news is relegated to the distant future where ensembles show a trend toward milder temperatures beginning around the 20th of the month. The actual weather that verifies in this time frame remains to be seen but a negative PNA and a nearly neutral AO will certainly chip away at our favorability index.

8-16 inches this weekend but a drier forecast for next weekend

2011-01-07T11:47:00.002-05:00

No big storm this weekend but a pool of relatively (or conditionally) unstable air combined with a deep pool of moist air should serve us well for the weekend. The region will get impacted by a collection of very disorganized disturbances but the above mentioned dynamics are supportive for snow and even the benign weather feature should be able to ring several inches of snow out of the atmosphere, at least over the high country. We should see some light snow Friday night and then some occasionally moderate snow throughout the day Saturday. 1-3 inches by first tracks time Saturday but the upwards of 6 during the day Saturday and additional snows Saturday night. Snow should continue into Saturday night and continue as some occasional albeit lighter snow showers Sunday.

The weather picture for next week consists of a very strong high pressure center containing relatively cold arctic air although not record breaking. At the surface it will be the prevailing feature next week with a very broad influence over the United States. It will thus be cold in a lot of places, especially Texas which should see much below normal temperatures for a good chunk of the week. As mentioned in the previous post, there is a storm in the southern Rockies that seems intent on moving east in two disorganized pieces. Its failure to phase into a single stronger storm and the broad and dominant influence being exerted by the high pressure center to the north is likely going to prevent this potentially potent weather system from developing into anything of too much interest to us. The weather as a result will likely be pretty dry next week with the exception of flurries Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures across much of the country will be below normal but New England temps will be close to normal.

The main driver of the pattern beyond a week's time will be a giant block across over Alaska that the various ensembles are handling differently over time. If you believe the GFS ensembles, its more of the status quo with the pattern anchored by two sightly repositioned high latitude blocks and another blast of cold across the United States. The European ensembles allow the block to become so strong that the cold is bottled up across western Canada and has less of an impact on the contiguous United States. The European looks like a classic La Nina like pattern with cold and snow confined to the north while temperatures moderate significantly across the south. I am inclined to believe the latter which although would allow the "favorability index" to be a bit lower than I have indicated here, should allow some weather to track in our direction. We shall see what comes to pass.

Cold pattern to bring continuous chances for new snow

2011-01-05T06:07:00.002-05:00

The 2nd of two clipper systems this week will cause a big amplification in the jet stream and some excitement for big storm potential. The threat caused a big stir Monday as models took a decisive trend toward another New England bomb Friday and Saturday. Since that time, the consensus of data indicates that the chances for a major storm have diminished but the chances for fresh powder remain. Two jet impulses will be on the weather map this Friday and Saturday. The first will dive southeast out of the eastern Great Lakes and cause an area of snow to enhance across much of New York state, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and southern New England as it interacts with the warmer Atlantic Ocean waters. The second impulse takes a similar route and we had hoped this would prove to be a necessary injection of energy to allow this system to explode as many do across New England. This second impulse will help amplify the trough further but is unlikely to phase with the initial system. The amplication will allow the initial system to get hung up across the Gulf of Maine and ultimately allow its moisture to envelop the high country of both Vermont and New Hampshire by Saturday. Snow should fall at varying rates Friday night through Sunday and could eventually amount to a foot of fresh powder by late Sunday.

Another system we are watching in the early to middle part of next week will track out of the southern Rockies, tap significant amounts of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico and head northeast from there. The longwave trough axis is actually in a favorable position for this system to actually become a major snow producer for both the eastern Great Lakes and interior New England but models have remained very skiddish on this event and the European has consistently stated its a no go. This will be a period, like many in January, where the polar jet rises to significant prominance across the United States. Such occurances in the past have depressed the storm track and at times even inhibited storm development. Time will tell if this happens in this case but I think this is what the European is hinting at.

Fresh powder within reach as new blocking pattern emerges

2011-01-02T09:10:00.003-05:00

The return to colder weather is not bringing any immediate relief as conditions remain relatively stable. A weak clipper system will approach the region late on Tuesday and bring our first chance for powder. This disturbance might have had more of a chance to be a bigger powder producer but as it passes the region Tuesday night, its energy will get sucked into a storm offshore. Nonetheless, a period of light snow is likely and 3-6 inches between Tuesday night and Wednesday is certainly very welcome. The clipper will also re-enforce the return to colder temperatures as readings will likely fall into the single numbers Wednesday night.

The news gets even better late in the week. It is another clipper system but a far more potent one which may ultimately gather some Atlantic Moisture and turn into a big snow event for parts of Maine. This storm is far from a "lock" at this point but it has 6-12 inch potential Friday as it moves out of the eastern Great Lakes and approaches the Atlantic Coast. This storm, like its predecessor will also allow a re-enforcing shot of cold air to invade for the weekend but the pool of instability in the wake of this system appears a little better and some terrain induced powder could remain on the menu through Saturday. We still have some time for this set-up to fall apart but the ingredients appear right for the 8th and 9th to be a fresh powder weekend. We still have a ways to go to get bases up to ideal levels but it would be a start.

As discussed in the previous few posts, the pattern is evolving into much of what we saw in December. A big eastern Canadian block, and a giant ridge in the Bering sea. The two features will again allow cold weather to prevail across a large percentage of the the eastern United States. The persistence of the "blocking" is quite astounding in a strong La Nina year such as this and although its outcome might not be powdery perfection, we can and have done far far worse. This morning there were some indications that the Bering Sea ridge will take the drivers seat by January 10th and shift the focus of the cold in to the Plains and eastern Rockies. If the pattern were to get overly amplified in such a set-up it could set the stage for another brief thaw between the 12th and 15th of the month. If the pattern stays a little flatter we could get a big weather system out of the whole deal and some additional snow leading into the MLK weekend. Overall I am encouraged and am optimistic about the next two weeks in spite of any concerns.

2011 arrives with rain but favorable pattern re-emerges quickly thereafter

2010-12-31T12:13:00.002-05:00

The thaw is underway across Vermont and many thaws in Vermont end badly for the ski hounds as rain can often highlight the grand finale of any warm spell. This will be no exception as rain seems intent on making an appearance with very late New Years Day or very early on the second. Until then it will be mainly dry with temperatures New Years Day climbing into the 40's. The rain will not be overwhelming with the consensus of information indicating about a quarter of an inch by first tracks time on the 2nd. Temperatures will be on the balmy side early Sunday but gradually turn colder and fall below the freezing mark again (after a 24-hour stint above freezing) by late morning Sunday. Snow showers and flurries are expected Sunday night into Monday but layer of instability does not look impressive and terrain induced snow amounts late Sunday into Monday will be in the 1-2 inch range if that.

As mentioned in the last post, another and very similar looking blocking pattern will emerge. The first chance for a "fluff up" comes late Tuesday into Wednesday from a clipper system that will pass through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The clipper could bring a few inches of snow to the mountain before reinforcing the winter-like temps for later in the week. A more significant storm late in the week may have our attention or may pass innocently to our south or not come together at all. Models have been a little skiddish so far on this hypothetical event but we could certainly use a big powder event going into the weekend of the 8th and 9th. More about that on Sunday. Until then have a Happy New Year and please be safe.

Warm-up on the way but December pattern my re-emerge to my surprise

2010-12-28T20:58:00.002-05:00

The east coast blizzard was so close but yet so far. The big snow was more or less "a ridge away" with locations in the hills west of the upper valley receiving over a foot yet MRG got less than 4. Meanwhile another New York city mayor is getting crucified over the seemingly slow clean-up in New York city. He would not be the first to suffer through political misfortune because of a blizzard. In 1969 John Lindsay, the then mayor of New York had his political career ruined because of slow clean-up efforts following a major winter storm. 10 days later MRG got one of its most historic winter storms, so we can only hope for a repeat performance although there are no indications of this as of yet.

Instead, the weather will turn mild for a few days heading into the New Years weekend. Wednesday and Thursday will feature more sun, less wind and remain winter-like with temperatures in the single numbers during the morning and upper 20's to low 30's during the afternoon. We should also have some good visibility on both days. On Friday, temperatures should warm past the freezing mark softening the existing base and on New Years Day, readings could reach the 40's. This all results from a temporary relaxation in the pattern, driven mostly by Pacific Jet energy in the west which is expected to crush Colorado with snow and some big chill for them in the last days of 2010. The good news here is that we do expect this warm-up to be of a dry variety. Some showers might be mentioned in the forecast for Saturday but most of the day will be dry and the front which will be responsible for any rain will not bring a lot of it and probably not until Saturday night or early Sunday. Temperatures will then fall back under the freezing mark by later Sunday.

In my last update, I was encouraged somewhat at the expected shift of the PNA to positive and the appeared re-positioning of the ridge-trough pattern west by early January. All this will happen for about two days and then to my surprise another monster blocking feature will form across the Davis Strait and eastern Canada. In addition to this will be the formation of another ridge in the Bering Sea. Both these features will be the most significant on the upper air map by January 5th. This is very similar to much of what we saw in December. It wasn't a bad pattern overall but right now we are remembering it for a big rain event in early December and the big miss this past weekend. It did however yield over 80 inches of early season snow to the mountain which is a good total in the early going. If we can repeat that and avoid the rain, this upcoming month will be a pretty good one. That being said there are no significant events on the horizon and additional snow (of any significance) is not likely for at least a week. Talk of a storm may resume for the weekend of the 8th and 9th but we have a long way to go yet.

Overnight models keep monster storm within 100 miles of the Cape

2010-12-25T07:21:00.003-05:00

And the suddenly very inconsistent European model nearly had the storm on top of the Cape by Monday morning which was nearly a 200 mile shift west from its prior run. Such a scenario paints a snowier picture for Vermont Monday although the heaviest snow would still be to our south and east. The inability of our collective assortment of models to demonstrate any consistency or agreement from run to run underscores how tenuous any forecast is at this point. Much of the uncertainty at this point surrounds the rate at which the storm will deepen once it moves off shore. The lastest information is suggesting a much more rapid deepening, capable of resulting in blizzard like conditions for much of southern New England along with a paralyzing snow. A deepening of this magnitude would allow the storm to resist the eastward push it will be receiving progressing pattern.

NWS out of Burlington has tried to convey the snow risk by suggesting a 50-60 percent chance of snow for the region and using the headline "accumulating snow possible". This isn't a bad way to handle a rather tricky situation. We can certainly still take a big swing and a miss in regards to this system but at least we have a real fighting chance for a 6-12 inch event. Hypothetically, the snow would begin early Monday morning, several hours before first tracks time and persist through much of the day. We can certainly hope but expectations should be kept in check, it can go either way.

Post Christmas storm to track too far east for big snow

2010-12-24T08:06:00.004-05:00

It was a question of a few hundred miles and it looks like that question will get answered in the wrong way for us powder hounds. Ideally, a low pressure center tracking between Boston and the Cape yields the best results for MRG and our surroundings. We have seen a convergence in the consensus of information over the past 24 hours and this is suggesting that the low will track at least 100 miles east of Cape Cod and the swatch of snow associated with this will be confined to eastern Massachusettes the southeast third of New Hampshire and coastal Maine. Its certainly is an unfortunate turn of events since sources of fresh powder over the next week or so appear limited.

Storms passing east of the Cape have been a recurring theme this month. The culprit for this lies in the prevailing pattern which has consisted of a mean ridge axis oscillating between the Dakotas and eastern Montana (a bit too far east for our liking). We have been saved on three consecutive weeks by the high latitude blocking to our north and east which has trapped many of these systems out over the Atlantic and moisture has been allowed to rotate its way back into the Vermont and New Hampshire high country. In this case the pattern will begin to undergo some changes and the position of this mean ridge will progres east and Pacific Jet energy will unload on the west. This "progression" in the pattern will also help move our storm out to sea at a very brisk pace and prevent moisture from this system from rotating back into the Green Mountains. In the end we may escape with a small of amount of snow Monday but our chances for epic powder are quite low at this point.

The middle part of the week will be mainly dry as I mentioned. Temperatures will be on the chilly side early in the week with readings close to zero both Monday and Tuesday morning and rising only into the teens during the day. Readings should rebound nicely Wednesday and Thursday however easily reaching the middle 20's during the afternoon and possibly approach the freezing mark. It will be very blustery early next week thanks to the strong off-shore storm but winds will subside somewhat during the middle of the week.

I scratched the surface a bit talking about some of the changes in the overall pattern and these changes will have a profound impact on the outcome for New Years weekend and beyond. Our Bering Sea block will vanish over the next 5 days or so and this opens the door for the Pacific Jet energy to unload on the west and for a big warm-up across a broad area of the eastern half of the U.S. including New England. The warm-up will be short-lived but there is a storm in here that will threaten to bring some unwanted ice and rain to the region during the first few days of the new year. We will keep some of the blocking in eastern Canada and some of this will extend back into western Canada allowing the PNA to turn positive for the first time in quite a while by early Jan. It will thus turn colder quickly in what should be an active start to the year. The pattern should consist of a active Pacific Jet, some arctic or at least Canadian air on the playing field and a few systems crossing the country over a 7-10 day period. If we get a more decisive turn in the PNA and the blocking across Canada eases somewhat it would open the door for some signficant weather systems to track in our direction but its a long way off. For now, Merry Christmas !

Christmas Storm prospects looking up...

2010-12-21T13:38:00.002-05:00

and after a 4-8 inch fluff-up Wednesday and Wednesday night, the focus will shift to the period following Christmas Day as the possibilities for a major, major storm in that time frame have increased over the last two days. Until then we can enjoy the pre-christmas snow mentioned above and the crisp, relatively dry and partly sunny days that follow between the Thursday and Saturday.

The storm's energy stems from the feet of snow that is falling over the Rocky Mountains from the Sierra Nevada Mountains to Colorado. By early Christmas Day it won't look like too much with some rain falling along the Gulf Coast and snow across northern Alabama and eventually the mountains of north Georga, perhaps enough in those areas for an unusual white Christmas. Fortunately, for us the jet stream will be split and polar jet energy will dive south out of Canada and give this system a major infusion of upper air support as it encounters the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. The result will be a rapidly deepening system either on or just off the Carolina Coast by early Sunday. I think we have figured this much out regarding this very important and quite possibly very ferocious weather system but its exact position Sunday morning and eventual track from here will be the determining variable. The American GFS model has flirted with a big east coast snow event with a few runs taking the system off shore and a few runs showing a northeast hit. A succession of European model runs however have been far more bullish and the relative consistency of this data has gotten the SCWB very excited. So long as we can track this storm reasonable close to the Atlantic Coast, there is a good chance some of the moisture can get caught under the blocking we keep talking about post after post. Although we can still get a complete miss out of this storm, the upside has become huge with more snow than I even dare mention early next week.

Any snow Monday and Tuesday will be followed by a dry and relatively tranquil period in the days prior to new years. Temperatures in the wake of a storm, or no storm will be chilly diving below the zero degree mark on one or two mornings and rising only in the teens. The early week chill will be accompanied by strong winds but both the chill and the winds will subside by later in the week making the late week skiing pristine if our above storm comes to fruition. For now we can at least be optimistic.

Midweek snow will help but nothing spreads more holiday cheer than a Christmas storm, but we can only hope at this point

2010-12-19T10:11:00.005-05:00

No major update is really required for the upcoming week but we do have a huge holiday week approaching and the last post didn't dive that period in too much depth. For the third consecutive week, we expect moisture from the a storm well out over the Atlantic to get sucked back into the high country of interior New England and deposit some snow for MRG and other places. As mentioned, it all results from the upper air block across eastern Canada which is more or less trapping this moisture over the Canadian Maritimes and allowing it to rotate back and around so it can be put to good use. As of this morning, the snow, which should fall in the late Tuesday to early Thursday time frame will be in the 4-8 inch range and although weather conditions might be a little windy, temperatures will be seasonable with 20's for high's and single digits or teens for lows.

Most of Thursday into Christmas Eve will be dry but the talk of the week will be a significant weather system that is expected to exit the central Rockies on the 23rd and progress west to east across the country on the 24th. Given its timing, the storm will garner some huge news headlines as it promises to be a major travel head-ache in a period where many like to travel. In addition the storm has the potential to impact a huge swath of metropolitan areas from the Midwest to Mid-Atlantic to northeast. This potential weather-maker has been very visible on a succession of model runs since last Friday but the consensus indication is that this storm will move off over the Atlantic before dealing MRG any huge powder. The upper air "block" over eastern Canada will largely be to blame if such an outcome occurs since although it can provide some needed protection from the ice and rain it can also encourage systems to track well to our south in a February 2010 style. Still it will not take much for our expectations to change. A slight shift in the track northward or an earlier northward turn would allow this storm to bring its moisture our way. Or, we could see this storm, like the previous three, get tangled in the blocking as it tracks off shore thus allowing its moisture to again rotate back in our direction.

Storm or no storm, cold and blustery weather will make a return in the days after Christmas and I am hoping some additional snows accompany this transition. I am becoming more and more confident that the threat of ice or rain in the period between the 24th and New Years Day is very low but after Christmas Day there are no real indications of a major weather system of any kind. We will more or less have to rely on weaker disturbances or passing clipper systems for additional powder. Overall though you can't complain since December skiing in New England has in some years been declared a total loss and is certainly not such this year.

5 days since the last post and not much has changed

2010-12-17T13:53:00.002-05:00

Yesterday afternoon's European model run again allowed a major storm to "bomb" along the east coast and subsequently get caught under the high latitude block in eastern Quebec, dumping major snow's across Vermont and the rest of interior New England. The several pieces of model data released since yesterday afternoon have all suggested otherwise, keeping the storm well off shore and keeping the region very dry with the exception of a few flurries over the high country. This system is worth keeping an eye on but I am about ready to write this weather system off at this point. Unlike last weekend we will avoid the rain and continue to collect a dividend payment from a weather pattern fully energized by a very negative Arctic Oscillation. Two blocking mechanisms in this pattern are more or less conducting the orchestra; one I mentioned over eastern Canada and another over the Bering Sea. The Eastern Canada block has been so remarkable in its ability to draw incredibly mild temperatures deep into northern Canada. Temperatures on the east side of the Hudson Bay were all above freezing Thursday and Friday and the ice which had been expanding, actually receded a touch. The Hudson Bay has been slow to freeze this year and although Northern Hemisphere snow cover remains above average, open water on the Hudson Bay is not a particularly positive feedback for allowing cold to pool in eastern Canada and ultimately descend into northern New England. We will be alright for the time being but the aforementioned observation could come back to haunt us later.

Our next realistic chance for snow comes during the middle of the upcoming week. Again it will the blocked pattern which yieid another serving of mid-week powder. One weather system will move west to east rather quickly Tuesday and manage easily avoid the region passing well to the south. In the meantime energy in the North Atlantic will get sucked back under the block in eastern Canada and deposit some moisture across MRG and the rest of the Vermont high country during the middle of the week in the form of snow. Results similar to what the mountain saw the last few days are completely in the realm of reasonable expectations and a repeat of this should be enough to get the season started finally.

Another system should depart the mountain west just prior to Christmas and cross the country rather quickly. It will be difficult for these types of systems to make enough of a northward push to produce a major snowfall at MRG simply because the block in eastern Canada will exert some "downward" pressure on all such weather systems. Still, the pattern remains very favorable with a stretch of below freezing temperatures and at least some new snow for this week and a negative AO which should ensure more of the same (at the very least) for Christmas week. Even if we don't get a big storm, we can do a lot worse and have in the past had some horrendous holiday periods. Enjoy the weekend and don't just think snow, think "additional snow"!!!

Another setback but another big week for new snow

2010-12-12T22:47:00.002-05:00

43 degree dewpoints, heavy rain and a tarnished MRG base is not exactly putting me in the Christmas spirit early this week. The Sunday/Monday storm turned into a fiasco and a major setback to what was a promising start to December. In truth, this resembles much of what was expected this winter, a roller coaster ride of weather results and in this case it was 30 inches of snow followed by over an inch of rain. The proverbial "silver lining" does exist and the high terrain of northern Vermont should make a rapid and an eventual full recovery.

Rain becomes light snow by Monday evening as temperatures slowly make a return to the freezing mark. We will then watch the sequel to last week and hope the sequel is as good as the original. Sunday's big rain-maker will get caught underneath all the high latitude jet stream blocking and a second piece of energy with a fresh supply of Atlantic Ocean moisture will migrate northwestward toward interior Quebec. Moisture from this system will arrive Wednesday and this should occur after an initial few inches of backlash snows Monday night into Tuesday. Snow totals between Monday night and Thursday will be in the 8-14 inch range and the high elevation areas will have a big edge.

Heavier snow showers will taper to flurries later Thursday and continue into Friday. Much of the country will have experienced some well below normal temperatures this week but readings in Vermont will be very ordinary ranging between the teens and low 20's. By this weekend, a weather system will be tracking into the Tennessee Valley and will bring both rain and snow to the Ohio Valley. Most of the model runs have taken this system well out over the Atlantic Ocean but we did get a European run this afternoon which allowed this system to develop into a major coastal storm and a big snow producer for most of New England. Its worth watching for sure but we should wait for more evidence before getting our hopes too elevated.

Even should any hypothetical late weekend storm turn into a "non-event" we should remain optimistic as the pattern remains anchored by a very negative Arctic Oscillation. The negative AO will peak in the next 7-10 days as a massive block covers the Baffin Bay and much of the southern Arctic Ocean. Another weaker block will remain in place across the Bering Sea. Much of the U.S. will thus remain in the firm grip of below normal temperatures as a result of all this. Temperatures across Vermont will remain close to normal but smaller disturbances should allow for powder possibilities through the Christmas holiday. Stay dry this Monday, new snow and a return to winter is not far away.

Storm Sunday/Monday to bring rain than snow....

2010-12-09T12:46:00.002-05:00

but the pattern will be generally favorable through the time of the winter solstice and this sets the mountain up rather well for the holidays. The storm in question is a "BC bruiser", and a rather innocent looking one it will be as it crosses into southern Alberta and dives southeastward from there. The storm will get turbo charged by a huge injection of polar jet energy which will more or less bomb the system out before it even interacts with the Atlantic Ocean. This is a bit problematic for interior New England since surface pressure's associated with this weather system will be so low before it even crosses the Appalachian Mountains thus making it difficult for a successful transformation off the Atlantic Coast. Many storms that track in this fashion lay flatter and are initially weaker but this one will be quite strong and will be standing quite upright and thus envelop warm Atlantic Ocean marine air across New England. The result will be a widespread rain event across southern New England and a mixed precipitation to some rain type of event across northern Vermont. Since the mountain has yet to open, it isn't the end of the world but it be good if we can keep dewpoints close to the freezing mark and keep the wind down. Both are huge factors relating to the rate at which snow can melt. The former appears better than the latter as I would guess dewpoints remain in the 30's but the wind gets whipped up pretty good by early Monday morning.

This storm, like the prior event will also get caught underneath the mammoth block over Greenland and as temperatures rapidly turn colder late Monday, moisture from the trapped system will rotate back over New England and deposit some additional snows across the region between late Monday and Wednesday. Snow totals in this period could approach a foot but its a bit early to tell for sure. With a solidified base and some additional snow next week, the mountain could be in good enough shape for an opening on MRG's target date but much will depend on the damages done Monday morning.

Teleconnection indices remain rather favorable as I mentioned above let mostly by the Arctic Oscillation which will remain very negative. The block over Greenland will migrate into eastern Canada a bit and will limit the region's access to any fresh supply of cold air after Tuesday even though it is not expected to be extremely mild (just above normal). The prevailing storm track however should be good enough to allow for the chances for additional snow from another storm toward the weekend of the 18th and 19th. More on that in a subsequent post Sunday.

Snow totals adding up, big storm to watch Sunday/Monday

2010-12-06T23:23:00.002-05:00

Light to moderate snow will continue through Tuesday before tapering to flurries Wednesday. With 10-plus inches of new snow the mountain will have a powdery finish and an appealing look but the base will remain shallow and appropriate only for your pair of rock ski's you would have otherwise advertised on Craigslist for $20. We do have a weather pattern anchored by a nasty Greenland Block and negative NAO and this will allow for the continuation of below freezing temperatures and is certainly setting the stage for an early season big storm and we will get our chance on the 12th or 13th of the month.

There will be two jet stream disturbances that will move quickly eastward out of the Pacific Northwest late this week and the weekend. The first, can be described as an alberta clipper which will spread light snow across the Great Lakes and ultimately interior New England early Saturday. This first feature can be compared to trying to start your lawn mower for the first time in two weeks. It will pull hard but the mower won't start and the moisture and upper air support will be lacking and so will the snowfall. We will hardly notice its presence in the end and will instead be focused on the second feature which will dig and dig hard as it progresses into the middle of the country. The amplification with this second feature (originating from the BC coast) will be very rapid and occur very quickly. Too quick for comfort perhaps as the surface low pressure center will gather steam in the Ohio Valley and like many storms during La Nina winters, head into New York state and interior New England. It will be a track that promises to bring the threat of all types of precipitation and although we have a chance for a major snow storm, precipitation could change to a sleet/freezing rain mixture and perhaps even rain. Hopefully this system can make an important jump to the coast before tracking up toward the St Lawrence Valley. Many storms which encounter a mammoth Greenland block such as this one will make this jump and we will need it here to make this event a big success.

Colder weather and snow showers will follow for early next week and with the negative NAO dominating the field of play, below freezing temperatures and continuous chances for snowfall will continue through 17th-18th of December.

2010-11 season to start with a huge bang

2010-12-03T13:22:00.002-05:00

Thanks largely to a well established upper-air block in the jet stream across Greenland and the very negative NAO which is a direct result. This is the very same feature which dominated the weather pattern last year, a year where the blocking was so severe and the southern branch so powerful that a succession of storms tracked well to the region's south. A similar pattern this year will yield much more fruitful results as the upcoming week will prove. Our live look at the MRG base might not show much in the way of snow at the moment but the view will be very different in a week's time and discussions of a very grand opening will pick up in earnest !!

Colder weather, which is dominating much of the central part of North America has been a little sluggish in its eastward progression leaving much of interior New England "above normal" though readings have fallen below the critical freezing mark across higher terrain. This will remain the case over the next few days as we witness the Midwest and deep south get a surge of chill by the 5th of the month. As the cold moves south, a storm will take shape across the Gulf of Maine and intensify very quickly. I alluded to this feature in the last post as a possible snow maker and it should prove to be of much greater significance than originally thought. As we progress into early next week, this storm will get caught under the all important Greenland block and retrograde into Quebec. As it does so, a moist conveyor will rotate into the northern Green Mountains and snow will begin to accumulate across much of northern Vermont although the high country will receive the biggest benefits. Between Monday and Wednesday snowfall totals could range in the 1-2 foot category.

The upper trough axis will shift east later in the week and temperatures should fall dramatically by Wednesday. Snowfall late in the week will largely depend on the available low level instability because the Champlain powder machine should be open for business (with the lake being unfrozen). It is tough to tell this early how deep that layer of instability will be but a subsequent post can fine tune that forecast.

Of more significance could be a more potent weather system which should exit the Rockies late next week and have a bit more moisture to work with as it proceeds east toward the region. This storm will be a product of a more consolidated jet stream this year and like many systems this year, the question will be its ultimate track and its ability to gather moisture from the Gulf Mexico since many such weather systems can struggle somewhat in this regard. Even at this early juncture I feel relatively confident for additional snows next weekend and this will make for a fantastic 7-10 days of early season skiing across northern New England. The even better news is the recent indication from the European Ensemble package which suggests a continuation of a blocked up and negative NAO dominated pattern through the 15th to 17th of the month. This will really limit the chances for any significant thaw or rain through the middle of December.

Lastly, I wanted to expand on this whole "favorability index" theme which will be a more objective measure of the three teleconnection indices that the SCWB keeps an eye on. The index is a cumulative measure of the NAO, PNA and AO over the next two weeks with the signs of the NAO and AO flipped. More importantly, a favorability rating of over "2" is excellent while anything under -2 is rather unfavorable. Hopefully this will keep me honest and perhaps keep me out of trouble !! Enjoy the early season turns.

Big block over Greenland will ensure cold and some snow after Dec 1

2010-11-28T16:17:00.002-05:00

A large upper air "block" has certainly established itself across Greenland over the past week. It has tag teamed with another high latitude blocking feature centered over the Bering Sea to allow arctic air to flood the country and will ensure a generally favorable early season pattern for the beginning of December. The benefits of the negative NAO will unfortunately not be felt until after the 2nd or 3rd of the month. The Bering Sea block has allowed a large trough to form across the inter-mountain west and this in turn will allow a large fetch of mild southerly to flow to establish itself across the east and this will flood the region with mild air very quickly on Tuesday. The rain will soon follow and rain it will to the tune of 1-2 inches. We might as well get this out of the way now because an event like this would have a devastating impact on skiing were it to come prior to the Christmas holiday.

So speaking from the standpoint of the MRG "base" we will be starting from scratch on December 2nd but a sustained period of cold weather will begin on that day. Temperatures will be seasonable through the upcoming weekend and by the looks of it, we will not have the instability for a big terrain induced snow event. There will be a lingering "baraclinic" area (you could say front) in the Gulf of Maine and this has the chance to stir up a bit of snow though the chances for accumulations will be best over coastal regions though much is left to be determined. The combination of better instability and even weak weather systems should result in some new snow early next week and hopefully by then we can start discussing a opening day party.

There is evidence that the block over Greenland will begin to break down around December 10th but our Bering Sea blocking feature will remain. The pattern will thus turn more variable but we should begin to churn out a few weather systems as we approach the middle of the month. There are a few additions or side features which should help to provide more of a numerical summary. Included will be seasonanal and 7-day snowfall totals at MRG and expected snowfall over the upcoming 7-day period. I will also include a favorability index. This will be a very generic, cumulative measure of the three teleconnection indices: the Arctic Oscillation (AO) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA index. The AO and NAO index is favorable when negative while the PNA is favorable when positive. Thus for the purposes of the "favorability index", the signs of the AO and NAO will be flipped and added to the PNA index for a final total. This approach has weaknesses but it will be a simple non-subjective and numerical way of looking at the next two weeks since our newly devised "FI" will be calculated at 7 and 14 days.

Winter 2010-2011: The revenge of La Nina !!!

2010-11-25T09:39:00.001-05:00

It is the middle of November and the weather has been excruciatingly mild so it must be time to kick off the seventh season of Single Chair Weather Blogging. Preseason forecasts can be a mess to evaluate in hindsight for their inexactitudes, inaccuracies and unquantifiable subjectivities. It can generate some excitement an for me induce a sudden craving for Magic Hat's Single Chair ale, which seems to be in short supply during Vermont's stick season (someone will have to clue me in on where to find some out of season SCA).

The emails I have gotten, which can now be sent to josh.aaron.fox@gmail.com (as opposed to yahoo) suggest that the SCWB reader continues is getting more and more weather literate asking the tough questions months ahead of the time when they usually get answered. We have an impressive audience of "in the closet" and "out of the closet" weather geeks and this helps to make running the SCWB a lot more fun. The talk this year has mostly revolved around La Nina and rightly so. It has blossomed quickly, decisively and promises to be a dominating force throughout the winter months. Its development also underscores how sharply the upcoming winter promises to deviate from the outcome last winter which featured a moderate El Nino, a vigorous and very moist southern branch of the jet stream and a season that I will now referred to as "the great inversion of 2009-2010" for its tendency to provide snow and cold to our friends down south and agony due to the lack of snow in Vermont. Preseason forecasts may be mostly famous for vagueness (I confess to share the guilt on this) but I can stress, even in mid November that the upcoming winter will be a striking contrast to the last and will quickly display a very different personality. If nothing else, it will keep the prognosticators on our toes, since frequent updates will be required to what should be a rapidly changing and volatile weather pattern. It will prove to be fun and challenging if nothing else.

La Nina's return
The ENSO conversation is typically the easiest part of the preseason discussion. Its associations and relationships are known and a ENSO event is easily quantifiable. This years La Nina has already received a ton of discussion and for good reason. As an aggregate measure, the current La Nina in September-October (-1.59 SST anomaly)is the strongest since 1955. I was somewhat surprised that we didn't blow right through the tropical storm alphabet since La Nina's of such ferocity usually are associated with very active hurricane seasons (this year's actually was but we did not see any major land falling storms in the U.S. and we didn't blow through the alphabet, at least not yet). Two other La Nina event that comes close developed in 1988 a winter we would just assume forget and 2007 a winter where I was pleasantly surprised. The winter of 1970-71 also featured a strong La Nina (although one that developed very late) and this winter turned out like a dream with incredible snowfall amounts across northern Vermont. This may seem like a pointless range of possibilities to discuss (since the range includes seemingly everything) but La Nina winters have a distinct personality that ties them together as opposed to specific snowfall amounts. Two features that seem most persistent and most influential tend to be a large and potent ridge across the Gulf of Alaska and a persistent ridge across the southeastern United States. This often dreaded southeast ridge can make winter's non-existent in our southern mid-latitudes below 38-40 north. Ski areas that received the high snowfall amounts last year like Seven Springs in PA or Snowshoe in West Virginia will not be so lucky this year. It is a different ball game up north however. Storm systems, and many of them, get deflected up through the Ohio or Mississippi Valleys toward the eastern Great Lakes and then often proceed to split New England into pieces in terms of the weather that results including heavy snow across northern areas, ice, ice and more ice across southern interior areas and rain along the coasts. This line of rain to ice to snow is by no means a constant and tends to fluctuate from north to south based on the storm track or readily available fresh supply of cold air. During some winters, MRG is on the favorable side of all the uncertainty (70-71), some they are not and most fall in between. This means some weeks turn out very snowy but there are several where ice and rain can greatly damage our skiing enjoyment. It is often unfortunate because there is not much even a little elevation can do to stop surges of mid-level warmth that often become so prevalent during these type of winters. Latitude does greatly help however and we do have that working for us (44 north thank you very much !!

2007-2008 winter forecast got suffocated much to our delight !!
The discussion about the current La Nina should also include a look at the 2007-2008 winter. That season was predicted to be a poor one since it was thought that the La Nina strength combined with the slow autumn buildup of northern hemisphere snow cover would be tough to overcome. That forecast was terrible but in retrospect revealing. For one, it is another in an invariable string of reminders of how inaccurate these forecasts can be. Secondly, it did provide a bit of inspiration for some preseason research. The results are interesting in a study that involved looking at strong ENSO events (strong La Nina's or strong El Nino's) and snowfall and temperatures across northern New England. The temperature results are not surprising. The strong El Nino events are dominated by milder temperatures and strong La Nina events feature above normal temperatures of a lesser degree. Snowfall in winters featuring significant ENSO events was a bit suprising. Both strong La Nina's and El Nino's featured above normal snow which to some might seem like a counter-intuituve result. It would be healthy to maintain a bit of cynicism regarding the results since the sample size which spanned 60 years and 21 qualifying winters is rather small. Still it is fair to suggest that the winter forecast made in 2007-2008 was a bit too pessimistic. The premises were right and many of those premises will remain this year.

The build up of snow and a further look at other strong La Nina winters
Looking at the buildup of snow across the northern hemisphere is our empirical method for assessing the hypothetical magnitude of cold airmasses through the upcoming winter. It is very inexact and can change over the course of the season. Snow cover area however often proves to be an important thermal feedback especially when trying to predict the sign of temperature. It helps cold air pool more efficiently especially early in the season when large expanses of high latitude land can either be covered in snow or snowless. The 10 most recent strong La Nina winters featured the following coverage of snow (in millions of square km) across the northern hemisphere during October and November. The end result of each winter is included on the right.

Year Snow Result
1970-71 28.6 Very cold, much above normal snow
1973-74 27.6 Slightly mild and above normal snow
1975-76 23.8 Slightly cold and above normal snow
1984-85 25.4 Slightly cold and above normal snow
1988-89 22.1 Slightly mild, way below normal snow
1998-99 26.6 Very mild, normal snow
1999-00 25.5 Very mild, below normal snow
2007-08 24.4 Mild, much above normal snow
2010-11 ~25.3 ??

The average snow cover area for the northern hemisphere during this period is 25.3. The period ending this November 30th will come in just at or slightly over that number. It is interesting that that the year with the highest autumn snow cover turned out to be the best and the year with the lowest (1988) turned into the worst as far as skiing goes. Somewhat circumstantial perhaps but probably not entirely so. This winter has seen a healthy buildup of snow and a rapid expansion in the last week or two across the North America but its not much better than average over a two month period so therefore difficult to draw any conclusions.

Our friend the PDO
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is another variable we have factored in to the preseason forecasts. The PDO refers to the configuration of temperatures across the mid-lattitude Pacific Ocean as opposed to the ENSO which refers to the equatorial Pacific. A positive or warm phase is often but not always teamed up with an El Nino and tends to feature a long-wave or jet stream pattern consisting of a trough in eastern North America and a ridge in western North America. A negative phase of the PDO is often prevalent during a La Nina and has the opposite effect. Data in recent years suggests that we have moved into a prevailing negative PNA and that last years strong El Nino was tag teamed with a very weak positive PDO. This year the PDO has swung back to negative and it appears it will remain there through the winter. This comes as no surprise and supports a pattern we are already expecting given the strength of the current La Nina.

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
Just like with the PDO, 10 years ago, there has been work and increased discussion over the last several years regarding the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and its relationship to the behavior of weather patterns in the northern hemisphere winter. I hope to keep most of the in-season discussions focused on more benign terminology but I did learn enough from emails and other discussions to provide a brief blurb. The QBO refers to the oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind in the stratosphere and is measured as an westerly or easterly index with westerly having a positive index and easterly negative. Some work has been done to establish a relationship between the phase of the QBO and Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events (another lengthy term). The SSWE have their own lengthy description and definition but they are associated with mid latitude jet stream blocks that are often the cause of sustained periods of cold weather. The easterly phase of the QBO for instance last year was said to encourage the persistent negative NAO. It has since moved to westerly perhaps suggesting less frequent negative NAO events and a more zonal pattern. None of this really contradicts anything that we might expect in a strong La Nina year such as this.

A summary and a prediction
So in summary, La Nina will win the day and win it decisively. It will mean that temperatures will average above normal but not as much as they did last winter - lets call it 1-2 degrees above for the ski season. Many places south of 40 degrees north latitude will experience a winter dramatically milder than last and dramatically less snow. We will get outbreaks of some severe cold but they will be interrupted and very abruptly by intrusions of milder weather. The milder weather will in many cases be accompanied by rain or ice which will at times be damaging. On the flip side there will be many other storm systems that bring snow and we should see a few epic periods. The southern branch of the jet stream will not be as influential and we will instead see a consolidated west to east jet stream send storm systems in our direction and few should miss. This should be enough to allow snowfall to come in above average - lets say 290 inches. This is around 110 percent of average at the mountain. The winter will require our full attention since many of the best periods will be simply wet or icy along the coast and conditions will change very quickly. Enjoy the thanksgiving holiday and think snow.

Warm weather ends an uneven season

2010-04-04T06:31:00.002-05:00

Uneven would be a generous way of putting it, disappointing might be the blunt way. There were some high expectations going into the year as it appeared we would have the right mix of high octane jet energy in the south and cold weather from the north to produce some big things. In fact, that is exactly what we saw, but all the fun was well to Vermont's south. The snow would have been more welcomed in our neck of the woods since it caused unprecedented disruptions in air traffic and costly clean-up projects in our major U.S. cities.

It is funny to look at the compiled data and how it illustrates how 2007-2008 got turned upside down thanks largely to a flip in the ENSO from La Nina to El Nino. Take a look at how we left 2007-2008 at the SCWB.

"Montreal, Quebec - 142 inches (169 % of average)
Burlington, VT - 100 inches (131 % of average)
Boston, MA - 51 inches (113 % of average)
Philadelphia, PA - 6 inches (25 % of average)

In the language of anomalies that is quite a contrast. In other words, some pain and suffering had to be endured by skiers/riders who stayed at Seven Springs or Snowshoe WV this year. Lattitude was key at we had it at MRG and this proved to save our season."

Pain and suffering is not the word to describe the season at Seven Springs or Snowshoe this past winter. Both mountains received over 200 inches of snow which in the case of Seven Springs was a record. Most importantly, the conditions were epic for the first three weeks of February in all of those locations as record snow was combined with consistent cold.

At Mad River Glen, we did not have a winter as futile as 2005-2006 or 2001-2002. We were pleasantly surprised early in the season as several storms pronged to move well to our south took an 11th hour turn northward to yield some powder. The mountain missed the Megalopitan storm "I" but did get a multi-day powder fest on New Years as a storm retrograted westward out of the Gulf of Maine. This was arguably the best event of the season for the mountain and was meteorologically fascinating since the event caused Champlain induced powder to fall over Burlington to the tune of 3 feet.

There was much anticipation after a quiet end to January since the pattern in early February looked as stormy as any I have ever seen in winter. The pattern was fueled by a plethora of blocking mechanisms across the high latitudes and an extremely energetic southern branch of the jet stream. The blocking was so ferocious that the storm track was forced unusually far to our south. Interestingly, so was the cold weather. Florida was not the place to visit during the winter as frequent outbreaks of intense cold resulted in the coldest winter in over 30 years. At Mad River glen, the cold weather never reached a level we would consider "intense" and although the winter was free of large scale "thaws" temperatures averaged above normal for the season. It was an unusual combination of circumstances to say the least but one that caused back to back major storms across the Mid-Atlantic States in early February. The seasonal snowfalls in cities like Baltimore, MD and Philadelphia climbed to 400 % of normal but much of Vermont continued to be plagued with a snow drought. Not only did MRG miss both Megalopitan events in February, but terrain induced events were non-existent as northern branch jet energy was locked up across Canada and southern branch energy was causing unprecedented snow farther south.

The big event of the winter at MRG occurred late in February. It was a very convoluted system flush with moisture but initially disorganized and ultimately quite mighty but very occluded. The initial burst of snow resulted in a swath of 50 inch totals up the spine of the Berkshires and Green Mountains but as the storm matured, it brought a conveyor of warmth into interior New England while cold advanced east into areas like Maryland, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. There were several hours during this event where you could've driven south on the New York State Thruway and the weather would have transitioned from heavy rain to heavy snow. In many ways it underscored the personality of the entire winter as an imaginary line within a few degrees of 40 north seemed to divide areas that received record snow from areas that consistently seemed to receive little snow. The storm in late February was a great one for MRG and would have been epic were it not for that warm intrusion which made conditions very changeable as you moved down the mountain.

In the end an El Nino of moderate strength such as the one that was present for much of the season, combined with the consistent presence of mid latitude cold are certainly the ingredients necessary for a winter such as the one we received. My conventional wisdom was perhaps wish casting for a winter more similar to 1992-1993 or 1977-1978 but the winter turned out to be a more exaggerated version of 1986-1987 or 1987-1988. The year perhaps most similar was 1957-1958. In that winter, record snow hit portions of Maryland and Pennsylvania late in the season in another year where the El Nino was very prevalent.

On a more personal note, I once again enjoyed the opportunity to talk weather to the greatest weather audience perhaps in the world. I felt the quality of the blog perhaps suffered at times since at times I found it challenging to combine my work load with blogging responsibilities. To make a long story short, it was easier to maintain the blog when you are unemployed and in search of things to do. I got a lot of emails, mostly positive and many I never got a chance to respond to. I appreciate the comments even if I never got a chance to craft a response. Enjoy the summer, stay safe think big snow for next winter.

-Josh Fox of the SCWB

Another east coast storm brings all rain to VT followed a season ending thaw

2010-03-28T19:27:00.002-05:00

In the end, the storm early this week will be a microcosm of the season. The cold air which returned in time for the recent weekend has become stale and will receive little re-enforcing help. As a result the storm which will refuel along the North Carolina coast will have little cold air to work with and will spread rain into Vermont Monday and lots of it. There is in fact legitimate concern about flooding when you combine the nearly 2 inches of rain that is expected to fall Monday and Tuesday with the snow that will melt across the high country. The periods of rain should persist through Tuesday with temperatures generally in the low 40's. On Tuesday, the summits could see some limited snow before precipitation moves east and out of the region Wednesday.

Once the sunshine returns the weather will turn spectacular as promised late last week. It is a mammoth upper ridge which is expected to build across the eastern third of the country and this will allow for weather more typical of early June in Vermont as opposed to early April. The only competing force will be some marine air which could back in to interior New England sporadically; otherwise, temperatures will surge into the 70's on at least 2 and probably 3 days in the period between Friday of this week and Tuesday of next week. The warm air will be accompanied by some great visibility and plenty of sunshine. So long as the snow survives, the skiing will be great but the warmth is strong enough to put a mortal dent into the snow cover and will likely render parts of MRG unskiable by April 5th or 6th. With all that in mind the SCWB will probably get one more update before we call it a season.

Winter makes a brief return but will fade quickly by late next week

2010-03-25T18:22:00.002-05:00

Cold air has made its southward push in time for the weekend and a brief period of snow will whiten the mountain by Friday first tracks. The weekend however will be a dry one and will be preceded by a rare day of below freezing temperatures (Friday) and single digit temperatures in the morning Saturday. Light winds and full sunshine during the day Saturday should allow for a rapid recovery and slightly above freezing temperatures by Saturday afternoon. Sunday morning will be considerably warmer and the day should feature more clouds but relatively light winds and temperatures slightly above freezing during the afternoon hours.

As one of the warmer and snowless March's I can remember moves forward, the SCWB updates have gotten more sporadic but we continue (consistent with the last update) to watch a weather system on Monday. It is a potent southern branch piece of jet energy which will exit the central Rockies Sunday and make its way to the east coast by Monday. Its track is favorable for some MRG powder but the amount of cold air remains a question. The European model indicates a rather stale supply of cold air and thus limits the accumulating snow to the high elevations of the Green Mountains and the snow itself would be of the wetter variety. The American GFS model indicates that a fresher surge of cold air will become entrained in this system and we would thus look forward to several inches of powder across the entire span of the mountain Monday. The differences between the two models might seem small but have huge consequences. It involves a small piece of energy in the polar jet, a branch of the jet which has largely been confined to Canada this month. The GFS model however allows some arctic air from this branch of the jet to get involved in Monday's system while the European simply confines all the polar jet energy to the north. We can settle for a compromise for it too would yield snow on Monday.

If Monday's system fails to materialize it will be lights on the the winter. Not to say we can't get more snow in Vermont come later in April but the thaw that is to come by late next week will be massive. It will result from ridging in the Central Pacific and unsettled weather across the west. This will allow a Bermuda high to form and the warm air to surge northward. And when I say warm I mean "warm" not "mild". Temperatures in the valley locations will surge to 70 degrees and beyond across the low lying areas by late next week and into the weekend. It will make for incredible spring skiing so long as the snow survives but those temperatures will obliterate the base and likely put an end to the MRG season in short order. I would take advantage of the warm temps early while the snow lasts. It will also be a terrific time to head up to Tuckermans Ravine as there should be several days of fantastic visibility and tolerable winds to accompany the soft snow.

Storm system to bring lots of moisture to Vermont but cold air is lacking

2010-03-21T23:37:00.002-05:00

The cold air has been lacking for much of the month and the first 21 days has averaged an astounding 10 degrees above normal. The warmth has certainly corned up the snow quite nicely and the sun and relative lack of wind has made it pristine for outdoor activities. The snow, however is melting fast and a storm is very much needed in order to extend the winter season.

A storm is on the way and one which could have very much extended the season with the support of any cold air. Unfortunately, the cold more or less spent itself into bankruptcy across the western U.S. and will do little more than return temperatures to within the ballpark of normal. Meanwhile we have a storm system in the southern half of the U.S. which is spinning eastward and bringing rain to the 2010 snowbelt (Washington D.C.). This storm will grab Atlantic moisture as it moves northeast and spill it on much of Vermont and interior New England. Temperature profiles reveal a relatively warm lower 6000 feet of the troposphere and I would expect nothing more than rain below 2,500 feet. The rain will begin rather lightly on Monday but gain intensity by early Tuesday and should fall moderately and occasionally heavy through much of the morning. Above 2,500 feet we could see some snow mix in but temperatures should remain slightly above freezing so it will be a wet day for sure. As the storm continues to gain intensity and pull away to the northeast, colder weather will allow for more snow at the summits and for rain to change to snow at the base. This could lead to a few inches by Wednesday but the accumulations will be very wet at the base with only the summits having any chance for real powder. This is another storm which could have been a real winner for MRG but this winter has produced a litany of events where at least one puzzle piece always goes missing. In this case we have the moisture and we have a relatively favorable track but have little cold air. The event could bring 1-2 inches of rain to much of the Green Mountain spine which will damage the remaining bases to a degree but should not eliminate them entirely, particularly across the summits.

Snow showers and flurries will continue most of Wednesday and into Thursday although temperatures at the base should remain above freezing for the most part and any precipitation could be rain in the valleys. Late on Thursday, we should see a fairly good "punch" of cold air make a push into New England. This could bring a burst of snow to the mountain and finally bring temperatures universally below freezing on Friday. We will be watching a more organized storm system by the weekend but I don't think its impacts (rain or snow) will be felt until later on Sunday leaving the weekend free of any big precipitation. Temperatures will rebound to above freezing levels during the day and 20 degree readings at night.

The storm mentioned above does have some cold air as an ally but it track is a question mark and thus so is the precipitation type. At the very least we should see some terrain induced powder in the wake of whatever does evolve. It will mark a 3-4 day stretch of relative cold but it won't last as ridging in the central Pacific will again shift the storminess into the Western United States. It will thus likely be a rather mild end of March and early April and should set the region up for more spring conditions on whatever snow remains.

Quiet weather to encompass region in the wake of the departing storm

2010-03-14T12:00:00.002-05:00

Consistent with March traditions the weather has gone from very quiet to very stormy and will again go back to quiet. It has been a weekend of wind swept gails which have not only impacted many east coast locations but also the beloved single chair at MRG which is ashame but it yet again proves nothing is as effective at closing the single as the wicked east wind.

The duration of this storm will feature snow at high elevations and rain in valley locations. With little available cold air this is a system that is ever so sensitive to elevation and the threshold elevation for snow as opposed to rain will lower late Sunday into early Monday. This will allow the mountain to pick up a few inches of snow although the "powdery" stuff will be confined to the upper half of the mountain. All precipitation will be over with by the middle of the morning Monday and clouds may give way to a bit of sun. Monday should be the only real blustery day but temperatures should still creep above the freezing mark across most of the mountain.

The only disturbance of note for the upcoming week will pass well to our south west and this will set the state for a dry and "quiet" week as I mentioned above. Temperatures will climb to above freezing levels every day of the week and in most cases get well into the 40's. We should see an additional surge in temperatures Friday afternoon setting the stage for a very mild and spring-like weekend on the 20the and 21st of March. The push of warmth is a direct result of surge of upper level energy which will dive into the eastern Rockies late in the week. A weather producing system will develop as a result of all this along with an accopanying push of colder weather. Until this system reaches MRG, it will remain mild and the storm is not expected to impact Vermont until early in the week of March 22nd.

The NAO will remain negative but the effect of this teleconnection will be mitigated by blocing across western Alaska. This will allow cold and unsettled weather to focus itself in the Rockies while cold an unsettled weather although not totally absent from Vermont will transition through the region only to give way to milder temperatures. This is more or less what I expect March 22nd and beyond. Rain followed by some colder weather and perhaps a bit of snow followed again by a quick return to milder weather. I don't think unsettled weather of any sort will "persist" across the region until very late in the month or in April.

Most of the rain stays south of MRG this weekend...

2010-03-11T21:12:00.002-05:00

and this news would be the best we have received this week. In the end the middle of March will be very much on the tranquil side much like the European Ensemble predicted it would more than a week ago. After a calm Friday with clouds and some sunshine, temperatures will graze the freezing mark Friday night but should quickly rise into the 40's Saturday as easterly winds usher in milder temperatures. Clouds should thicken Saturday but the rain should hold off and remain well to our south. The rain and wind will in fact be quite a problem further south as low pressure along the eastern seaboard intensifies but the weather at MRG will be on the quieter side and the snow should remain soft thanks to a solid day of above freezing temperatures.

Sunday could turn out very similar to Saturday but models continue to show moisture gradually encompassing more of interior New England and ultimately bring a brief period of rain to the mountain during the day Sunday. Sunday will turn out to be the cloudier day and a solid night of above freezing temperatures should precede the ski day so the snow should remain soft. Temperatures should remain rather steady during the day Sunday either in the high 30's or low 40's depending on elevation. Overall rainfall amounts now appear to be in between a quarter and a half an inch. This is far less than I would have expected a few days ago and represents the key change in the weekend forecast and a good one as far as the telefest weekend activities are concerned. Rain should also be a middle to late day phenomenon and persist into at least part of Sunday night.

The other change of not involves much of next week. The forecast has warmed significantly in this time frame and the forecast of a "below normal temperature bias" appears to be not a good one. It should nonetheless remain dry however and this will allow temperatures to fall back to below freezing levels Monday night following some rain early in the day. Day time temperatures between Tuesday and Friday should have little trouble eclipsing the freezing mark. The week will start out on the blustery side thanks to the intense east coast storm but gradually winds should subside and the afternoons will be very comfortable for all outdoor activities. The shift in expectations was a fairly large one fundamentally. Although some evidence exists of blocking at some key high latitude locations, the focus of unsettled weather will shift into the west by late next week and this will allow temperatures to remain on the mild side through the weekend of the March 21st. We should see some cold weather return thereafter but by that point much of the support from our teleconnection indices will be lost and I am skeptical weather we can produce a weather pattern capable of delivering even a week of winter weather late in March. It perhaps may wait until April.

Late week storm shifts north but so does the cold air

2010-03-08T10:46:00.003-05:00

With that news, I can't help but to resign myself to the thinking that Vermont has simply failed to own the 2009-2010 winter. As of Monday March 8th, our limited amount of winter cold was expected to receive some reinforcements. To a degree, this will happen but not on a noticeable scale and the cold weather this week does not appear strong enough to withstand a surge of warmth that will accompany the moisture from the next storm.

The weather system in question is a southern branch piece of jet energy with plenty of moisture. As Vermont continues to see dry and seasonable temperatures in the Tuesday to Thursday time frame, this storm will track out of the Rockies and into the central plains. From here, the storm will dance and spin its way toward the Atlantic Coast and position itself near the New Jersey coast by Saturday. This would seem to be a very favorable path but the storm will mature very quickly in the plains and ultimately occlude before reaching the eastern seaboard. The occlusion process, much like the powerful storm two weeks ago, has the impact of allowing warmth to wrap from the eastern flank of the low pressure center to the northern flank. The moisture which is likely to make its delayed arrival in north-central Vermont sometime on Friday, will arrive after much of the limited amount of cold weather is scoured out. At the very least I was hoping the high elevations could salvage something out of this event but preliminary temperature profiles across the region during this time frame suggest even this may be a stretch. In summary, unless we get a big fundamental shift in the way this storm evolves late this week, it will be rain for Friday, Saturday and rain and snow showers for Sunday and Monday. I know this is disheartening news given that the big telefest weekend is upon us and adds to the frustrations that seem to be way too common this winter in our parts.

The general period between March 14th and March 21 still appears favorable as far as winter weather is concerned. I expect temperatures to be biased to the cold side as a consequence of a positive surge in the PNA index. The departure of the storm this weekend may allow snow showers early next week and we will then hope the storm track remains far enough to the north to get in on the next weather system which will probably be around the time frame of March 20th and 21st.

Winter loosens its grip a little but not entirely

2010-03-05T14:34:00.002-05:00

Temperatures, with the help of lots of sunshine, have been allowed to warm above the freezing mark during the day time hours but fall well below that at night. I am told that is excellent for the maple syrup folks although I am hardly the expert. This general trend will continue for the next several days and temperatures will be allowed to reach the 40 degree mark across the low lying areas Saturday with the help of more sunshine. A few clouds and perhaps a few snow showers may mitigate the temperature rise Sunday and Monday but it will for the most part stay dry and we should see some sunshine Monday and more on Tuesday

One of our readers, "Cowbells" pointed out a few days ago that the middle of the month might not be the sea of tranquility I had indicated in the last post. It was the American GFS model then and continues to be the American GFS model now which indicates a rather interesting finish to next week including snow from a juicy looking storm system followed by terrain induced for the weekend. The European model is showing much of what its ensemble members showed a few days ago. More storminess to our south and dry weather across the Adirondacks and interior New England. The differences are derived from the handling of the jet stream blocking across Canada. The GFS and its ensembles allows the blocking to shift to the west, opening the door for storm systems to move up the Atlantic Coast as opposed to out to sea. The European maintains that much of this blocking remains across the central part of Canada and this forces much of the available jet energy to remain well to our south much like it has for much of the winter. This one is a very close call however and although the weather could turn out just as benign as I would have indicated in the last post, it was right of Cowbells to widen the possibility spectrum a bit. At this point we certainly have at least a chance at getting in on the action late next week and into the weekend and it will be worth watching over the weekend since I know telefest is St Patty's day weekend and plenty will be keeping an eye on the weather.

Moving beyond the weekend, no spring thaws are evident although the major ensembles are arguing about the extent to the wintry weather. The GFS ensembles produce a rather cold week in the wake of telefest that would certainly include a few powder days. The European would indicate that temperatures are on the below side of normal but with a more stable pattern. With the 50-60 inches of snow over the past 10 days, the weather should allow for the MRG season to continue strong through the official start of Spring and beyond.

More juice in the south

2010-03-02T06:13:00.002-05:00

As flurries continue across the high country of Vermont another in a long list of southern branch storms is poised to make a run up the Atlantic Coast. The storm will be embraced by the expansive east coast trough currently in place and will move from the panhandle of Florida Tuesday to somewhere east of Cape Hatteras by Wednesday. From there its track is expected to continue in an east of north trajectory and this will make it difficult for its moisture to reach much of interior New England. Areas that will see snow from this will be areas that have already seen record snow during the winter season. The track of the storm will be a bit too far east and thus snowfall across the bigger cities may avoid the record books but it will be nonetheless snow that MRG will mostly avoid. Both Wednesday and Thursday will feature temperatures in the 20's and snow flurries but nothing of real merit aside from a flurry inch or two.

Thereafter, a more tranquil stretch of weather should settle into the region. Healthy amounts of sunshine and the high March sun angle will also allow temperatures to warm considerably and we may get a few days of spring conditions before the next shot of cold arrives sometime next week although there is still some disagreement about this. The warm up results from some structural changes in the ridging and blocking across Canada. The ridging had shifted back into western Canada and had thus allowed the PNA to turn positive but over the next 5 days, the blocking will shift into eastern Canada and will extend south into New England. A real spring thaw consisting of 50-degree temperatures is possible but the warmer of possible scenarios. The European has suggested 1 or 2 days of garden variety warmth followed by a turn to colder weather during the middle of the week. This return to colder weather would mark our next chance for snow but this will have to be clarified in a later update since it is a bit early for details.

The middle of March weather pattern appears somewhat familiar. A ridge or a block across central Canada will likely keep arctic air from spilling into the U.S. in large quantities and will also suppress the southern branch energy which has already been suppressed for much of the year. This set-up thus threatens to allow for a relatively dry middle of March but we will continue to keep an eye on it.

And lastly, a congratulations need to go out to the Canadians and the hockey team that represents them. In one of the most thrilling games I have ever watched, Canada prevailed in a extra period and won the gold medal in spite of a very gritty effort from the United States. It was a great moment for the great sport of hockey and it might be wise to remind the less than stellar NHL commissioner, Gary Bettman of this before the next round of Olympics when NHL players might again be playing in meaningless regular season hockey as opposed to representing their countries.

The warm air has arrived

2010-02-25T13:38:00.002-05:00

allowing the rain to fall at the base of Mad River Glen while the snow is falling in center city Philadelphia. The world is truly upside down at the moment and as it tries to right itself over the next 24 hours we are hoping this results in more powder. As it stands now, enough warmth will prevail across the region to keep things wet (snow at the summits, rain at the base) through Thursday night before colder weather arrives, straight out of Philadelphia. Atmospheric profiles tomorrow and Saturday reveal a moist and unstable lower troposphere and this level of instability extends up around 12,000 feet which is very conducive for some terrain enhanced snow both Friday and Saturday once we get it cold enough again. These events are very tough to predict accurately but I would expect snow showers to intensify Friday, and continue into Friday night and Saturday. I am not sure if we can turn Friday around into a powder day but I expect Saturday and perhaps Sunday to be winners. A few inches each day between Friday and Saturday will result in an additional foot although the bust potential is there in either direction.

1-foot down hopefully a few more to come

2010-02-24T06:36:00.003-05:00

and another one is imminent Wednesday as moisture continues to stream up from the open waters of the Atlantic. Snow which is falling with some serious intensity as of Wednesday morning will continue throughout the ski day. All this snow results from the so called "appetizer" or a relatively weak area of low pressure and its energy is expected to get swallowed by a much stronger system Thursday. Sometimes however the "appetizer" is the best part of a meal and the snow Wednesday combined with the relative lack of strong winds could make it the best powder day of the week.

I am happy to report that the alterations to the forecast are relatively small. The calm between the two storms is moved to Wednesday night as opposed to Wednesday during the day. Snow will then re-commence Thursday morning and then become heavy during the morning hours. The low level push of warm air that is expected to rotate northwestward from the open waters of the Atlantic all the way to the mountains of Vermont is still expected to arrive during the day. The advantage of elevation will prove very critical and warmth at the surface should be shallow enough to minimize the impact of rain above 1500 feet. In fact, the consensus of data suggests very little rain at these elevations even though low lying ares are likely to get wet Thursday evening and Thursday night. Winds will increase and become pretty ferocious later Thursday and will generally come from the east.

Model data suggests that drier air will work to lessen the intensity of precipitation Thursday night. As this is happening temperatures will begin to cool a few degrees and allow any precipitation which is falling (even in low-lying areas) to turn back to snow. The colder weather will move right up the Connecticut River Valley, certainly an unlikely source but its taking the scenic route by moving into the Mid-Atlantic states first before moving north into interior New England. By this time, the storm, which will have already "bombed" and done a loop around the New York City area, will gradually weaken. Areas of moisture will remain however and should continue impacting MRG even after a Thursday night or early Friday lull. Snow will continue at either a light to moderate intensity through much fo the later part of the day Friday into Friday night and on Saturday.

An updated breakdown of accumulations are as follows.

Wednesday: An additional foot of snow on top of the foot which has already fallen

Wednesday night: Light snow and a minimal accumulation

Thursday: Heavy snow during the morning. Snow will turn wet and may go to rain in some low lying area but should continue across much of MRG. 10-15 inches is possible.

Friday: Light and some occasionally moderate snow with 3-5 more inches

Saturday: Light and some occasionally moderate snow and another 4-8 inches

Sunday: More snow and more accumulation

Mammoth storm to bomb and stall across New England

2010-02-22T23:53:00.002-05:00

and with it will be a wild few days of weather across not only the Green and White Mountains but all of New England, New York State and southward to New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. It is a complicated weather map to say the least but will largely be dictated by an amplifying upper trough which will evolve into a "closed low" which will position itself near Martha's Vineyard by Friday.

As of early Tuesday, snow has already made it to much of New York state but this moisture is associated with a decaying low pressure area in the eastern Great Lakes and much of it will likely fail in its attempt to reach the Vermont high country. Meanwhile a new area of low pressure will gather strength over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and move north over eastern New England. This surface feature will swallow much of the energy from the eastern Great Lakes low and push moderate to heavy snow to MRG Tuesday evening. The snow will accumulate significantly and should provide the mountain with its best powder day in weeks with somewhere in the vicinity of a foot by first tracks time Wednesday.

This initial burst of snow however results from a storm which is not even likely to deepen beyond 1000 mb as it tracks through eastern New England; in fact the storm will begin to lose its potency as another far more dynamic system begins to take shape just behind it over the Atlantic. This new storm will deepen very rapidly thanks largely to the full backing of upper level support approaching from the west. It will also have the necessary baraclinic ingredients of much colder weather approaching from the west mixing with the relative moist warmth of the Atlantic. The result will be an all out explosion near the New England coast and a low pressure area which may eventually deepen to near 980 mb (Valentines Day '07 levels). This second and more dynamic system will give us a little head fake in its initial north-northeast movement but will ultimately turn north and then retrograde west as it gets sucked into the closed upper low mentioned in the opening paragraph.

We should see the snow Wednesday lessen its intensity for a time as this new storm consolidates its power and then the high drama begins. Models have given us some conclusive evidence regarding the snow through Wednesday but what happens after that remains somewhat uncertain. The newly released high resolution NAM and the two most recently released GFS runs allow this storm to deepen and move west with such ferocity, that a "warm tongue" from the Atlantic Ocean literally slices through interior New England allowing a second round of snow to become rain across valley locations and perhaps parts of the high country as well. It is very hard to fathom but it would not be a meteorological impossibility given such a storm. It would be very similar in fact to the February 10th set up as rain prevailed across the Boston area while snow was falling in locations much farther south like the nations capital. In this instance, rain could be falling in some of the valley areas of Vermont Thursday while snow is falling in New York city. This however is just hypothetical and since this is an occluding storm the effect of elevation will work in MRG's favor. The European model is also suggesting a more favorable outcome with the storm and its "warm tongue" much farther north and much of the state remaining safely in the snow zone.

So with a bit of information overload in the above paragraph the boiled down details would appear as follows. The lighter snow late on Wednesday would become much heavier snow Wednesday night and early Thursday. This should allow for another round of epic turns Thursday morning at the very least. During the day however temperatures could climb and snow could turn either very wet at the base or turn to rain. If the European model wins the argument, snow would simply continue at varying intensities. Once the storm undergoes this occlusion, we will see sporadic lulls but much of the energy from this very impressive weather system will remain across New England through Friday, Saturday and Sunday. In addition the "warm tongue" if any does evolve will simply dissipate by Friday and we should be looking at a steady light to moderate snow through at least Friday and Saturday. The snow totals will thus be immense and the big challenge will be whether or not we can avoid the rain on Thursday.

Here is a summarized break down using first tracks time as a frame of referenced

First tracks Wednesday: Around a foot with 2-4 additional inches during the ski day

First tracks Thursday: 6-12 new inches with snow or mixed precipitation during the day

First tracks Friday: At least a few new inches, but light to moderate snow throughout the day providing additional powder

First tracks Saturday: Additional powder consisting of several inches.

Do the math here and you get some impressive totals.

Thursday will feature a lot of wind as the storm reaches its peak intensity. Winds will slacken gradually on Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will generally be in the 20's Wednesday, near freezing Thursday and back in the 20's in the Friday-Sunday time frame.

And as if to prove how streaky mother nature can be, another huge amplification in the jet stream is likely during the middle of next week leading perhaps to talk of another big storm or at least some additional powder. This would be in the early days of March.

Updates will be required and changes in the forecast, particularly the timing should be expected so please operate under that assumption. Other than that, I appreciate all the interest and all the emails. I apologize for not responding to some but appreciate the comments nonetheless.

It's time to get a little bold and predict a huge week of powder at MRG !!!

2010-02-20T13:48:00.003-05:00

It will take some time to evolve but the potential has never been bigger this winter season and by the end of this week will either be camping out at MRG for first tracks or very let down if somehow things fail to come together again. It is a very complex weather situation and for a while it will be a disorganized one and the latter can certainly lead to some anxious moments. The SCWB is all about fun though and would like to try and rise to the challenge rather than hide from it.

As the weather remains quiet and even mild as the weekend wraps up, a storm system will move from the south-central Plains toward eastern Great Lakes spreading snow in a swatch from Kansas to Chicago to Ontario. This system will head northeast with some initial steam but gradually lose strength, speed and cohesiveness in Canada as it encounters the jet stream blocking at the higher latitudes. As this happens however, a large upper trough will descend upon the eastern United States allowing the right ingredients of cold weather across the middle of the country and relative warmth across the Atlantic to ripen the situation for storm development along the east coast. All indications suggest this will happen but the jury is out as to how explosive this development is. As of noon on Saturday, we did see some lose agreement amongst the major computer models to allow a system to form in the vicinity of the Delmarva Peninsula during the middle of the week, move northeast, and then boomerang back into New England as the upper trough evolves into the "bowling ball" we all hope it becomes. There are few impulses rotating through the above mentioned upper air feature and its difficult to be anymore specific except to say that a storm may very well stall in eastern New England and allow a conveyor of moisture from the Atlantic to invariably deposit snow across the Vermont high country for days. That would certainly be my plan if I had any control of it but its far too early make guarantees although it is very nice to see some hard evidence suggesting such an outcome.

In terms of timing, a decaying area of moisture from the weakening storm in the eastern Great Lakes should arrive late on Tuesday and bring some powder for the ski day Wednesday. Any such snow in this time frame will be nice but snowfall from the developing storm along the Atlantic coast (what we hope becomes a full fledged nor’easter) comes later Wednesday and hopefully continues through the end of the week and into the weekend. All I can say is that such an outcome would make for an unbelievable turnaround for much of Vermont ski country and could turn a month that has been remembered for its "Styrofoam" to a month remembered for its "finish".

There are plenty of ways to botch this developing weather situation. Anytime a storm strengthens, stalls and then occludes, warm air from the Atlantic can wrap itself around the northern flank of the storm and actually change snow to something other than snow (we will not mention this word). Storms that occlude are often laced with pockets of dry air which allow for elongated periods where no snow is falling. The storm could also fail to come together at all while the moisture initial eastern Great Lakes dies its slow death and thus allowing the great MRG 2010 snow shield to work its black magic. Fundamentally however, if the storm does indeed stall and occlude, it will be the Vermont high country which will benefit the most. Occlusions are characterized by winds at varying levels of the troposphere aligning directionally and thus making precipitation (amount and type) very sensitive to elevation. I will therefore not at all be surprised to see some surprisingly low snowfall totals across both the Champlain and Upper Valley's while the huge totals come in across both the Green and White mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire.

It is a very exciting situation to say the least. I know we have had a few that haven’t quite played out according to plan but we have to keep calling them like we see them and this one is the best I have seen through the winter season to date.

One more chance for snow through Friday, otherwise its a bust for the ages

2010-02-18T13:45:00.003-05:00

I have had my share of busts under-predicting snow amounts at MRG although its funny, it somehow goes unnoticed. I think the most important thing is to just get the powder which of course we really haven't done and thus the busting has certainly not gone unnoticed. All that said, "tempers running a little high" remained for the most part in good fun and this audience remains the best audience anyone could blog for. The lack of powder has allowed this snow drought of ours to take on a life of its own and one can't help but to be a little superstitious if it helps kill the MRG snow shield. One would think it would then be wise to declare the week a total loss and regroup. In truth however, there is one more impulse that could be the catalyst for a bit of snow Thursday night into Friday. If by Friday evening we are still measuring a dusting to an inch then it will then be prudent to fess up to what will be a very lousy forecast.

Moving on to the weekend, we should see snow shower activity on Friday (and hopefully it will be lots of activity Friday) subside to flurries on Saturday. We should also see some intervals of sun and given the higher February sun angle this should allow temperatures to reach or get very close to the freezing mark. We should see the existing snow soften as a result by Saturday afternoon and more of the same for Sunday as similar weather conditions prevail.

Next week looks very promising as of now although I am very scared to call it such. We have had a few successive runs of the European model take a storm from the central Rockies, and move it to the Atlantic Coast. The model does show the storm taking the all important turn north and then stalling again somewhere in extreme eastern Quebec. This would be a very encouraging result since not only would the storm deposit some much needed powder across the mountain but the pool of instability associated with its upper air support would sit across the interior northeast allowing for terrain induced snow during the middle of the week. The American GFS model is farther south and is indicating less snow from this system but at the same time does not shut us out. The hypothetical in question would have Monday as a dry and tranquil day, Tuesday powdery and Wednesday and Thursday potentially powdery as well. Lets just be careful for the time being to not get overly optimistic. Snow droughts are funny and this one has certainly proven to have a bit of teflon so the SCWB will respect it until its over.

Looking farther ahead, it appears we will be in for a round of some late season winter chill. I was expecting a blast of cold a bit earlier in the period but we now have some good indications that the cold will be strongest late next week and into the weekend following what we hope to be several days of snow. If you have been watching any of the Olympics, Lyndon State's own and long time weather channel anchor Jim Cantore has illustrated the western ridge quite well with some fancy graphics. Such a ridge is the fuel behind the PNA and allows the pipeline of arctic cold to open and ultimately delivered for much of the eastern United States.

That is it for now. Lets think snow and think about it long and hard !!

Storm gives us the ole right hook but we are not done and neither is our prediction

2010-02-16T22:28:00.002-05:00

Tempers seem to be running a little high based on some emails I have gotten but the call of 1-2 feet was a fairly loose prognostication meant to span a few days and given such a time we may live up to some of these original expectations. Watching Connecticut, Massachusetts and southern Vermont outperform MRG is frustrating but as this storm continues to push northward and stall, it will provide some us with some long awaited dividend payments before making a final farewell. As I pointed out, the atmosphere will remain relatively moist through much of the lower troposphere and there are two upper level impulses, one which should pass early Wednesday and another Thursday night which will provide the boost necessary for some snow across the high country. I know the forecasts appear pessimistic but this situation is elevation sensitive and the next few days will feature limited amounts of accumulating snow in the valley locations. The mountains, particularly across the northern half of the state should perform modestly and over a foot of new powder by early Friday is still a completely reasonable expectation (so long as we are talking about areas above 1500 feet).

1-2 feet of powder over the next few days...

2010-02-14T23:39:00.002-05:00

is worth two posts in one day if it breaks the back of the current snow drought. I was a little light on details on the last post since I don't like missing my plane but I will try to make up for it with a second post that includes some accumulation numbers and some timing.

This is a system rich with upper air dynamic support but a weaker on moisture particularly compared to some of the southern branch monsters to hit the Mid-Atlantic in recent weeks. Nonetheless, it will grab some a limited chunk of Atlantic Moisture on its New England approach and track just west of Boston. This was a key shift in the expectations which only occurred within the last 24 hours or so. The shift allows moisture to spill westward to the Green Mountain chain and for snow to begin around daybreak on Tuesday and continue at a steady pace throughout much of the day and into the evening. The American Model has had several consecutive runs now where around a foot of snow would fall Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Other data suggests a bit less. All the data does show lingering moisture in the wake of this storm capable of producing several more inches of snow with the help of any kind of upper air catalyst. This will be interesting to watch because the atmosphere will need a bit of a boost to turn unstable late this week but such a boost could do huge things for the northern half of Vermont, at least over the high country. The headline of the post would be a rather conservative estimate if you catch my drift (no pun intended).

A burst in the PNA index should lead to a few days of more serious New England cold probably sometime next weekend. A burst of cold could lead to another burst of snow or could end a long duration of snow shower activity which could persist for a few days. The general "blocking" in the pattern will largely remain in place however meaning organized systems will have a tendency to track to our south and the rain/snow line will prefer to set up over the Florida/Georgia border as opposed to the Vermont/Mass border like it did with the most recent storm.

Overall this is a major positive development for us and could lead to the epic week for snow we have all been waiting for.

Clipper to make the sharp left turn and break the back of our powder drought

2010-02-14T06:48:00.002-05:00

This very innocent looking weather system currently spreading snow across portions of South Dakota will take a very parabolic path across North America and thanks to a huge insurgence of upper air support, it will make a very needed turn to the north and deliver the powder day that we have long been waiting for. Before I move on to the details we have to give a shout out to Vermont's own Hannah Kearney from Norwich who provided us with an exhilarating performance in the women's moguls at the Vancouver Olympics. Although many MRG loyalists may not ski bumps competitively, we can certainly appreciate how technically challenging they can be, especially after a back flip. It was a lot of fun to watch her win the gold last night and do so "on the road" against the home favorite Jenn Heil who herself was pretty dazzling.

Now moving on to the weather related items of the post since we do have a storm to discuss and some important changes in the overnight model data that has us in some powdery goodness by Tuesday. The storm will impact many of the big city locations as its energy transfers itself across the West Virginia mountains to the Atlantic Coast. At that point it will use the combination of the Atlantic Ocean and its upper air dynamic support to turn north and turn negative. The "turn negative" part refers to the maturation of this winter storm and specifically its ability to thrust its moisture westward across the Vermont and New Hampshire high country. The consensus of models had moisture close but generally showed a rather limited period of precipitation for the mountain. The two overnight runs of the American GFS model have shifted this storm northwest and are tracking the storm across eastern Mass, quite a shift over the past 48 hours. There remains some uncertainty about the actual track and some lingering indications of an Cape Cod track which and thus lower accumulations. My preliminary guess is for snow to begin during the morning Tuesday and continue through much of the day and into the overnight yielding several much needed inches for the mountain.

Snow from the storm will then be followed by snow from terrain enhancement and this should continue through Wednesday before tapering to flurries by Thursday and Friday. It should remain cold through the weekend and into next week. More details on the long range to follow in the coming days.

Monday's clipper hits the big cities with more snow and tried to make the turn north

2010-02-12T10:40:00.002-05:00

Until then however it will be mainly dry and seasonable with temperatures reaching the high 20's and dropping to near 10 at night. Some flurries are possible throughout the weekend but the boundary layer instability is lacking for any big terrain induced snow. Meanwhile the latest city get blasted with snow is Dallas-Fort Worth with almost a foot of record breaking snow. This means some powdery turns down the grassy knoll if anyone is up for it.

The next system worth watching is a potent clipper which will dive southeastward into the U.S. in very aggressive fashion. This is a strong piece of upper level energy and once again it is being forced underneath "the block". It will thus be difficult to gain access to this moisture as it once again brings additional snows to the same big cities that have already gotten lots of snow. It will make the turn north Monday and bring snow into parts of interior New England and possibly as far north as MRG Monday night. Its a stretch to say the least to expect any big powder out of this but we need to stretch during these tough times.

With El Nino weakening and the PNA turning positive by late next week we should see more activity from the polar jet and less activity from the southern branch. The southern branch, although unkind to us in recent weeks, is normally the home-run hitter while the polar jet can provide us with the nickle and dime events. We are happy with nickle and dimes at this point and should get a few of these events late next week and into the weekend. We shouldn't expect much but a few inches here and a few inches there can begin to break the snow drought. We also can continue to forecast a lack of rain and persistent cold weather through most of the remaining part of the month so whatever falls should stay on the ground for a few weeks.

Megalopitan part three means a bigger base at Capitol Hill than at MRG

2010-02-09T22:42:00.004-05:00

Perhaps a few turns down those long steps could make for a powder day. Although I would seem to beat a dead horse with these references to snowfall at another geographical location, one has to appreciate the statistical magnitude of the Mid-Atlantic snowfall this season. I have experienced many winters in this location and although you might think MRG is in the midst of a bad snow drought, there are many winters in Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington D.C. where snowfall is less than 10 inches for the entire season. This winter however will feature 3 feet of snow in a week, an epic amount even for those of us skiers that like to maintain high standards when it comes to snowfall. If you can't take it anymore you could make the 9 hour drive to Ski Liberty near the Mason-Dixon line. This pathetic looking hill attracts mostly urbanites but check out the snowfall report.

http://www.skiliberty.com/lmr/Snow-Grooming.aspx

I am green with envy !!

So Megalopitan part III has indeed shifted its track ever so slightly to the north and will allow for some light snow to cover most of the southern two thirds of Vermont. It will be difficult to make more than an inch out of what falls and most of what falls will be in southern New England. The days prior to the holiday weekend appear to have a shallow amount of boundary layer instability and this should allow for persistent flurries but it will be tough to produce any more than an inch or two out all this by the holiday weekend.

The next system appears to be polar driven as the southern branch has shown signs of a late winter fade which makes sense since El Nino has also begun to fade. This clipper system however will have to contend with our "infamous block" and will thus dive southeastward bringing its limited moisture into West Virginia before attempting to make something of itself along the Atlantic Ocean. This again will be a difficult set of circumstances for us and although one can't completely rule out powder in the Sunday/Monday time frame it is looking less likely by the day. The weekend as a whole should be winter-like with temperatures in the low 20's by day and single numbers by night. It will be unstable enough for clouds and windy enough for the wind-proof shell but that is about all I can say about the upcoming holiday weekend. It will not however be a rain-out and for these small things I can be thankful.

More flurries and snow showers are possible in the early next week time frame as another re-enforcing shot of chill arrives across the eastern United States. Temperatures in Vermont will be very tolerable and statistically be characterized as normal. The most interesting development in the longer range or specifically the later part of next week is the development of a positive PNA as a contributing element to an already very blocked high latitude jet stream pattern. The PNA has really been the last missing link for the current pattern to turn from slightly cold to very cold. The PNA moving to the positive allows the arctic pipeline to open and the bone chilling cold to come. For us here at MRG, we can also hope that the shifting of the ridge to a slightly more westward location might allow some of these big east coast storms to make a northward turn, if we are lucky enough to get a few more.

Frustration reaching a SCWB high as models shift Wednesday's system southward

2010-02-07T17:27:00.002-05:00

Frustrating because we need the snow, frustrating because this storm looks like a beast and frustrating because we seem to be locked into favorable pattern that is yielding dry results. It is similar in many respects to late February of 2003 which saw a cold but dry blocking pattern lock itself across the northeast sending weather systems well to our south. It is very agonizing but it is reality.

It would be a bit early to completely close the book on the weather system Wednesday. Like i mentioned in the last update it will get a huge injection of upper air support from the polar branch of the jet as it moves northeast out of the southern plains Tuesday. This normally would be a sweet situation for us here at MRG but "the block of death" continues to reign supreme on the weather pattern. I have completely underestimated its influence on northern New England so far and I want to be cautious as to not do it again. Normally blocks are good, but this one is centered a bit too far to the south and our jet energy has been forced well to our south and has been unable to turn northward even after some explosive interaction with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. Models are now suggesting Wednesday's system may suffer a similar fate. It will intensify upon interacting with the Atlantic Ocean and slam the New York city area and southern New England with some big snow. It will struggle to push northward however and will likely track south of Long Island and south of Cape Cod before moving out into the open waters of the Atlantic. This is typically not a optimal track for big northern New England snowfall. The precipitation shield can extend well into Vermont but the heaviest snow stays well to the south of MRG. The track of this storm can still shift north and we need about 100 or so miles to get into some decent snowfall but the trend is not our friend at this point and thus the tone of this update has had a less than positive ring to it.

This "block of death" will nonetheless prevent any rain and will keep temperatures below the freezing mark for about 99 percent of the next two weeks taking us through the presidents day holiday. There are no weather systems on the horizon for next weekend at this time but there are indications of some instability and any weak disturbance could allow for a light accumulation of snow. The next organized system will probably have a chance at impacting the region some time around the 17th or 18th of the month. I know there are lots of folks who head to the hills this week so I will try to keep the updates coming but I myself have a busy week ahead so I will need some understanding.

Our government might have a big national debt but they are getting all the snow

2010-02-05T12:15:00.002-05:00

and the cleanup from all this snow will certainly not help balance any budget. This storm, although a monster, and one of the most powerful winter storms I have seen hit the Mid Atlantic, will not help us here at MRG and we will have to enjoy a rather quiet weekend of weather and little if any fresh powder to ski in. Interestingly the wall of snow verses no-snow will establish itself right across New York city making that forecast nightmarish for the weather forecasters down there. For Washington D.C. it will be another historic snow in a historic year for snow since the winter will likely go down as the snowiest ever.

MRG can expect chilly temperatures although certainly nothing intolerable. Lows will bottom out near zero and afternoon temperatures will approach the 20 degree mark with the help of some sunshine. Winds will start the weekend on the lighter side but increase by the time Sunday rolls around, a day which should feature wind chills below zero along with some limited sunshine.

The most promising looking weather system in what ? a while at least will be the talk of the town early next week. It is a weak southern branch system that will get a big boost from energy diving down from Canada. It will in the end help to re-enforce a vigorous east coast trough and in the end bring some arctic chill deep into the south again. Most importantly however, it does appear capable of bringing moisture deep into New England and if all goes well blow up along the New England coast and prove to be a major powder producer for us. This hypothetical event would arrive Wednesday and persist into Thursday and it will follow a very long stretch of unusually dry weather. The storm may get caught in the maritime trap thus allowing enough moisture to wrap around back into northern New England and enhance the terrain induced snow machine during the end of the week which sets the mountain up nicely for the holiday weekend.

The more general view of the weather map and weather pattern has block in the jet stream of incredible size and magnitude across eastern Canada and much of Greenland. This will again allow the NAO to enjoy a long trip down into the depths of negativity. Such a feature will greatly reduce our chances for rain but can still deflect would be weather systems to our south much like what the weekend "bomb" is doing. It is still a favorable pattern with snow coming from terrain induced events at the very least. Its approaching "prime-time" at MRG and things are looking very "up" as the NAO goes "down".

Another Noreaster in the making but will its moisture be out of our reach ?

2010-02-02T18:41:00.004-05:00

As we near another anniversary of the great "Blizzard of '78" we might recall (I unfortunately do not) how incredibly stormy that weather pattern was. The storms were lined up one after the other and were burying the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. with some amazing snowfall totals. Another such pattern appears to be upon us, one of the stormiest I have seen since the inception of the SWCB for sure but we at MRG are begging to have something to show for it. As of now it has not been much. We have had a few nice storms, lots of glancing blows, some terrain induced fluff but we are certainly deserving of better particularly in a pattern such as this. As of now we continue to have a consensus of model data which is taking another mega-storm to our south. Such an event would be another huge hit for the I95 Megalopolis's but will be of little consequence in areas north of the Mass border. We have watched another cycle of model runs guide this ever-threatening looking noreaster just slightly farther to the north but we have a ways to go. Quite frankly I am sick of hearing all the newscasters suggest what a nuisance these storms are for the big cities. Bring them here where they belong and let the east coast get rain!

The problem fundamentally is that the dominating blocking feature in the jet stream is too far south and its expansive influence will have a drying effect on northern New England since jet energy has no choice but to travel well south and well under the blocking. It is such a powerful storm that the game is far from over. We are down by a few runs in the 7th inning but can the game is not out of reach yet.

In addition, the storminess will continue as I mentioned and the cold weather will be re-enforced in a big way across much of the eastern United States. Another storm during the early to middle part of next week will bring us another chance for some much needed powder before we turn sharply colder later in the week. Another update will come in a day or two but until put your snow shovel away for the season as a way of earning some karma.

Focus shifts to next weekend...

2010-01-31T12:59:00.002-05:00

since the forecast for the next few days will lack any big time powder. We will get flurries and light snow showers through Tuesday that will amount to a few inches or less (if such a category exists). We then have another shot at a few inches later Wednesday into Thursday as the remnants of the mid-week system that I had originally much higher hopes for graces us with a presence that we will hardly be worth noticing. It will remain wintry through the week with temperatures in the teens and 20's during the day and near to below zero at night.

The storm system arriving for the first full weekend of February will be worthy of much discussion and speculation. It most certainly has lots of potential both for us skiers and as a major east coast travel hazard. It has the potential to be a sequel to December 19th which if you recall was a major hit for many coastal cities but a major miss for the interior New England ski areas. This very juicy southern branch feature could also track farther northwest however and thus have a more Valentines Day 2007 appearance. Model data is suggesting more in the way of the former but I am optimistic that the forecast can change in our favor. The position of the upper ridge which has at times this month has been too far east and acted to deflect a would be powder event is further west this time and will do its part to produce a formidable east coast trough. Such a set-up can allow the east coast system in question to become much stronger and a stronger system will track farther north and farther west since such a process negatively tilts the the trough axis. You should expect this event to be downplayed across the north country until some hard evidence indicates the possibility for some big snow. As of now we have very little evidence suggesting such and another update in a few days should shed some more light on the "weather" or the "not" (pun intended).

The longer range update has a stormier and more favorable look to it as of this morning. We can thank the NAO for all of this. We can also thank the continued presence of El Nino although it has weakened somewhat from its peak of 1.9 C above the seasonal norm. The NAO will be fueled by the block discussed in the last update and th weather will be fueled by the southern branch which appears more and more active in each update of the ensembles. It will be a continued challenge to get moisture up past 42 north, especially since so much jet energy will dive under the blocking and out over the open Atlantic thus keeping the storm track farther south. The simple idea that a more continuous string of storms can track from one side of the country to the other will at least provide some potential and it all starts with that.

Cold but drier forecast for the weekend and upcoming week

2010-01-29T19:13:00.002-05:00

We brought winter back in a big way as temperatures plummet to well below zero across much of Vermont, particularly the high country. The forecast for the upcoming week has also trended colder but also appears to be on the drier side which is unfortunate since us Mad River Glen enthusiasts hate wasting cold weather.

The forecast for the weekend is almost entirely unchanged. Saturday will be dry and should feature a good amount of sun to go along with the bone-chilling cold. Winds will remain at a tolerable level so a run through the legendary MRG bumps should generate enough bodily warmth for a cold ride up the single. On Sunday we should see more in the way of clouds as a very pathetic looking clipper system spreads some light snow across the region mainly in the afternoon. I think it is reasonable to expect a fluffy 1-3 inches by Monday morning and this will be followed by more wind and more cold Monday night into Tuesday. The disappointing aspect of today's forecast is the system during the middle of the week which appears to fall apart upon its approach. It didn't have much in the way of moisture to begin with but appeared capable of "fluffing-up" the mountain and this appears somewhat less likely at this point but its still early to count it out completely.

The system next weekend will not have any problems with ascertaining moisture. It will be a product of the southern branch and a re-enforcing shot of cold later in the week should keep enough cold around for an all snow event across the interior northeast. The remaining issue will be the track of this storm which could head out into the ocean as some models already indicate. There is still some good potential here though and the SCWB will stay on top of any changes good or bad.

The headline in our last update indicated that rain should stay away for a while and no reason to stray from that prognostication as of now. Temperatures should moderate substantially beginning next weekend but this mostly stems from the building of a massive block in the jet stream which will extend from the Hudson Bay of Canada east through the Davis Straits and encompassing much of Greenland. This is a positive development since it will be the fuel for another super negative NAO. The slight negative is that the block will extend southward and may be a force for some rather tranquil weather. Weather which should be free of frigid arctic air (the block may actually prevent that) but also free of big storms since most of them could track to our south. It should however mean that the rain will be far away and in my mind the rain can never be far enough away. Enjoy the weekend

Burst of snow late Thursday and a wintry next week

2010-01-27T21:46:00.002-05:00

Although still lacking in moisture, short term model guidance has indicated that Thursday's clipper is much more intense dynamically. This system will spread clouds over MRG Thursday and eventually snow Thursday afternoon and into the evening. The clipper is associated with a sharp arctic boundary which will pass overnight Thursday but until it does it will snow and it should do so modestly for a short period late Thursday. Accumulations will range from 3-7 inches and be somewhat sensitive to elevation. This turns Friday into a powder day but be ready for cold of the more intense variety. MRG has managed to dodge some of the most intense cold of the season so far but Friday's chill should rival the coldest of the season with temperatures hovering around zero and wind chills well below that. The clipper system is our event for the weekend and should make Friday the most powdery. We had been watching a system down south but we will have to, cautiously mind you, assume this system tracks well to our south. The result is a mostly dry and very cold weekend with temperatures below zero both mornings and high temperatures near 10. Clouds and snow flurries will return Sunday but should not amount to much in terms of accumulation.

The cold blast will continue into early next week and actually be re-enforced somewhat early Monday. This means maybe some minimal amounts of snow Sunday night but mostly cold weather and temperatures well below zero at night. I had mentioned the that the storm track will at least temporarily shift north next week and this is indeed the case. It will put the region more in the range of some of the better "frontogenetic" forcing and when the next system exits the Rockies early next week it will take more direct aim at MRG. It is uncertain how much moisture will be available for this feature but it will no doubt be plenty cold and the possibility for a modest 4-8 inch dump around the Wednesday time frame of next week is reasonable. The passage of this system will ultimately allow temperatures to begin to moderate late next week and by the following weekend the arctic air will grow stale and lose its grip on the region.

There will be another much stronger system toward next weekend to watch. It will be a product of the southern branch once again and will arrive as the cold air weakens. Because the polar jet will deactivate so rapidly we will need the southern branch to do all the magic with this system and will also need to hope enough cold air can linger and we will need a relatively favorable tracks. Its better than a long shot that we receive a snowy impact from this system but it is a long way out and a lot can happen with so many uncertain variables.

Ensembles are showing a very strong signal for blocking but this block will be centered from the southern tip of Greenland west to the entire eastern half of Canada. The block also will not get support from the PNA which will mean that arctic air will make a big retreat. Weather systems after the first week in February will be controlled and steered by the southern branch and it might prove difficult to get weather up into New England. I think the threat of rain is minimal but the weather could dry out substantially after February 8th and a long period of tranquillity could prevail across the region.

Rain is done at MRG and likely for a while !!!

2010-01-25T21:10:00.002-05:00

Halleluyah !! This one hurt like a punch to the ribs and if you ever wonder why posts don't come as frequently on the SCWB you can blame the rain. I hate even thinking about it so I don't post. The snow is on its way and should fall in the form of occasional snow showers beginning Tuesday and persisting all the way until Thursday. I had hoped there would be a period of favorable low level forcing to go along with some general instability but we can't have it all I suppose. Over the next 72 hours I would not be surprised to see 5-10 new inches of fluff most of which should fall between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. The snow should taper off and temperatures will turn much colder late in the day Thursday and we will then be firmly enveloped by some good old fashion New England January chill.

The headline hopefully does not turn into a lie. The 1-2 punch combination of the negative Arctic Oscillation and the weakly negative North Atlantic Oscillation should ensure a gradual improvement in powder prospects as we move into our favorite period at Mad River Glen. The improvements will come fast and furious if we were to get some love from some southern branch energy on Saturday. This system will be associated with the sharp cold front which will have already passed MRG as of late Thursday. A wave will form along this front across the southeast and evolve into a significant area of low pressure as it interacts with the Atlantic Ocean late on Friday. I can probably stop the narrative here and the reader can simply guess the situation - Model data shows this system tracking well to our south and we will have to hope for another 9th inning northward kick. On more than a few occasions this year we have gotten some late game heroics and it will likely take at least another post before we can either right this storm off completely or excitedly welcome some much needed snow. It will otherwise be a cold weekend with temperatures in the teens in the afternoon and below zero readings at night.

The early part of February, or at least the very early part should consist of some new snow from a clipper system (Monday or Tuesday) followed by re-enforcing shot of chill. I then have high hopes that some southern branch energy goes wild late in the week and we can get a significant dump. Interestingly there will be some forces in the jet stream that should aim the storm track a bit farther north as we progress into February. Meanwhile the storminess in the west will continue but shift north as well and this is very much needed as the Winter Games approach. I vaguely remember the '88 games in Calgary, a place I once called home got hit with the spring thaw of a lifetime as temperatures soared to 60 degrees (or beyond 15 C for you Canadians) as they hosted the games. The Olympic curse was broken in Salt Lake City in '02 as they were the only place to record above normal snowfall that winter causing some of us crazier weather geeks to cry "Government Conspiracy !!!". All that aside, I am looking forward to another round of Winter Olympics and would certainly like the Americans to do some representing in hockey though I am skeptical.

Dry weekend and some rain early next week before improvements begin

2010-01-21T10:07:00.002-05:00

We would indeed like to see 20 inches of powder every 2 days (maybe some of us every day) but this weekend will be a time to enjoy the visibility since it will be impressive for a succession of days. The culprit is a dome of high pressure, a Canadian born airmass, that will build across the region Thursday and Friday. This weather feature will reduce the snow shower activity and allow for a few days of sunshine and miles of visibility. The sunshine should last through most of the day Saturday and then some high clouds from an approaching storm system will begin encompassing the region Saturday night and Sunday. With light winds and temperatures approaching the 30 degree mark Saturday and exceeding it Sunday, it should be a very comfortable time to get out and enjoy the slopes.

It has been a bit too long between updates but little has changed regarding our rain threat early next week. It remains very "there" and very ominous looking. Precipitation will probably begin as a bit of ice Sunday night then turn to rain for a time Monday before ending all together later in the day. This will unfortunately be a bit of a "sting" as model data is suggesting upwards of an inch of rain with this feature. Temperatures, if they remain in the 30's will help prevent a apocalyptic melt down but we will nonetheless lose a significant amount of snow.

The good news is that improvements will come fast. There is a healthy pool of instability that should move over the region in the wake of this storm Tuesday. I expect this to help deliver terrain induced powder for much of the day and perhaps a significant amount before Wednesday first tracks. Much colder will then re-assert itself across Vermont by Wednesday before a relatively strong clipper system potentially impacts the region late in the week. This could set the stage for a fantastic weekend but its early. Teleconnection indices going into early February are marginally favorable. The best feature I can latch on to is an Omega block that will develop north of Alaska which will help transport some continuous arctic chill into New England starting late next week and continuing into early February. This feature is relative close to the pole which means that it will not result in a nationwide outbreak of cold like the one in early January, it should however act to prevent additional disasters like this upcoming Monday.