Very typical early spring weather for the next week in northern VT but early April looks stormy

The snow this past Monday night was magnificent. One of those unique cases where northern Vermont performed exceptionally well in spite of a storm track well south of Long Island. The dry airmass was displaced rather easily allowing moisture to stream in off the Atlantic Ocean rather efficiently. Areas to our south that should have performed better under-performed or changed to rain while some areas across the northern half of Vermont received over a foot.


And with the midweek storm passing well to our south, sunshine made a multi-day appearance and allowed temperatures to climb well into the 40's Wednesday and close to 50 on Thursday and  Friday. The milder weather felt nice Thursday but it pales in comparison to what occurred in Oklahoma with temperatures reaching 90 and even 100 degrees in a few places. It has been a very warm winter across much of the south and an even warmer, at times summer-like month of March.


Just as we begin to see April on the immediate horizon, the pattern looks stormy and also capable of producing more snow. More on that in a bit. In the meantime, our weekend got split in half. The first half Saturday is sensational. Following a chilly near 20-degree start, a full day of sunshine should boost readings toward or above 50 and with very little wind. Sunday is a disaster with rain arriving by mid-morning and continuing well into the evening. The rain will hold temperatures near 40 but it won't be cold enough either at the surface or aloft to support snow during the day. At best, we could experience a bit of freezing rain in spots similar to what we saw back on March 13th. Temperatures aloft are expected to cool Sunday night and allow for some snow across much of the northern Vermont high country. This once powerful weather system over the upper Midwest will become occluded well before impacting Vermont, but with all occlusions, even the rainy ones, there's always a cool pool and that could provide a gloppy inch of snow to valley areas and a few inches above 2000 feet by Monday morning.

The aforementioned storm system will only slowly move away in the early part of the upcoming week. This will allow clouds to linger and likely keep temperatures from moving past the 50-degree mark. Current data suggests that this will improve as we get to Wednesday with a couple of mild days possible on April 1st and 2nd. This notion is predicated on another mid-week storm dodging interior New England much like this past Wednesday. A few days ago there were hints of a fairly big Vermont impact from this but not so much as of Friday March 27th. Worth watching this storm however for another possible change.

I'll never forget how insulted snow-lovers in Albany were in the winter of 2015-16. They got shut out of everything all winter and recorded most of their snow during the first week of April if I am not mistaken. Given their nearly 60 inch snow climatology, that was a snow hole for the ages. Northern Vermont actually put up a rather good fight this winter from a snowfall perspective but have been repeatedly plagued by an adverse set of teleconnection indices (AO/EPO) all winter. Much like that 2016 spring, our early April is looking rather stormy and quite volatile on the temperature scale. The AO appears to be as neutral as ever and the jet stream in the Pacific looks as relaxed as it's been all winter. I still think much of the most intense cold will remain bottled up near the Arctic given the lack of a strong high latitude blocking mechanism but the pattern does support the notion of some big east coast storms and at least a day or two of much below normal temperatures (In early April that's 30-35 for max temps).

In the 15 or so years doing the blog, the big 2-foot April snowstorm has somehow eluded us which I find somewhat remarkable in the context of that time span. No, I haven't published any research papers on it but I would imagine the return period for such an occurrence is more than once over a 10 year period (at least for the high country). Should we get something like that, would we consider it a slap in the face at this point ?

Bluebird Sunday will be followed by several days of clouds and some wet snow

Oh my goodness, we've got some winter weather coming our way. It appears to be the early spring version of winter with some wet snow and marginal temperatures but I am sincerely hoping for some good wintry scenery. One thing is for certain, enjoy the Sunday sunshine because the 7 days that follow look very cloudy. That Sunday sunshine will be accompanied by maximum temperatures that struggle to make it above the freezing mark, but light winds will help make it a relatively comfortable day.

Clouds advance into the region early Monday and some snow will be falling by mid-afternoon. The storm responsible is a weak area of low pressure that will use the gradient from the exiting arctic high pressure center to strengthen and expand the area of precipitation.  The storm is expected to remain south of Long Island which means the heaviest precipitation is likely to stay south of northern Vermont. That said, models have suggested that this storm will have an inverted-like surface structure which should allow the precipitation shield to extend farther north than it might otherwise. How extensive this area of snowfall is remains up for debate but 2-5 inches of wet snow Monday evening is my best guess. Like many storms in late March, we should see some elevation sensitivity that will impact both amounts and snow consistency.

The Monday snowfall, whatever we get, will be followed rather quickly by a more formidable storm Wednesday. It was this feature that stood out to me when looking at the weather maps last week and it continues to do so as of Saturday (3/21). That said, the MRV will be working with a real limited supply of cold air while also dealing with the fact that this storm, like its predecessor, will be tracking south of Long Island. It's not a shut out track but the conundrum speaks for itself. If the storm shifts northward it would threaten to dislodge the minimal amount of cold in place but the current track might prevent us from receiving the heaviest precipitation. This is still worth watching though. A strong enough and a good enough track should at least produce in the mountains even if valley locations get stuck with a cold rain.

It looks like a real battle thereafter as to whether milder or colder weather end up prevailing over the state of Vermont through the last weekend of March.  Another weaker weather system is likely to impact the region Friday which will keep much of the state cloudy through the end of the week. This late Thursday/early Friday weather feature appears to be a warmer one though the data remains a little inconclusive. Colder high pressure might then successfully build across the region for Saturday providing the region with some sunshine but that also will be short lived (it at all) as another storm promises to spread clouds and precipitation into the region either late that day or on Sunday.

Ensembles are painting somewhat different pictures in the period between March 30 and April 5. The European ensembles suggest what could prove to be an excellent stretch of weather with more sunshine and potentially spring-like temperatures. The American Ensembles show a stormier somewhat colder scenario. Given that the colder weather is expected to reposition over Alaska again and given how much of this winter has played out, one would have to favor the milder outlook from a betting odds standpoint.

I very much appreciate all the kind words from everyone. Hope everyone is staying safe and healthy.

Weather continues to happen so lets talk about it some

Our ski season came to a crashing halt this past weekend as we adjust to a new world. But at least in this new world, we still have weather and so I can blog about that a few more times before calling it a season. We can expect a bit of everything over the next few days including some very mild and some very cold weather. The large ridge positioned over the Gulf of Alaska will proceed, as expected, to migrate northwestward and will allow arctic cold to grip much of  western Canada into early April. Northern Vermont is a long way form western Canada but the pattern will open the door slightly for a bit of cold and possibly a bit of snow to go with that cold in the coming week.

There's a rather significant storm that will organize across the southern Rockies by early Thursday and a wave of low pressure way out ahead of that storm will spread some rain into southern New England early in the day. The precipitation will mostly steer clear of Vermont but a dusting of snow or mixed precipitation is likely before 10 am. It will remain cloudy and cool the rest of Thursday with temperatures hovering near 40, but a massive push of warmth is coming for Friday. The surge of mild weather, a full blown "El Torchy" that will include gusty southwest winds, 60-plus temperatures, and intervals of clouds and sun. Also included in the Friday package of weather is a bit of rain. Showers mostly, but even a thunderstorm is possible in what appears to be a early season convective set up.

The potential thunderstorms are associated with this aforementioned Rocky Mountain originating storm that will ultimately pass well to our north Friday night. A very sharp, very strong cold front will then bring temperatures well below freezing across the Vermont high country and they will stay there for much of the weekend. Saturday's cold will be accompanied by flurries and some gusty northwest winds. Winds Sunday will be calmer but readings could be down in the single numbers into the morning before rebounding to about 30 degrees.

The cold will moderate after Sunday but we might struggle see outright spring-like temps for a bit. I mean without lift service we might as well turn the EPO negative finally !!!

EPO Analysis / Forecast

But as I mentioned, it will actually be western Canada experiencing the full impact of this more wintry pattern. Vermont will be colder but will likely simply see temperatures closer to normal. A potentially strong weather system will impact parts of the east coast Wednesday. This storm does have the capability of bringing wet snow to Vermont and possibly a significant amount. I will certainly keep an eye on that system which will then be followed more relatively seasonable March weather.

If its the milder weather you're actually hoping for given our present state of circumstances we might get a bit more of that as we get to the last full weekend of March or in early April. Our little respite from the positive EPO will last about a week but is expected to resume its 2020 state of remaining mostly positive which means a fast flowing west to east Pacific jet stream. The Arctic Oscillation meanwhile just keep spewing out positive numbers. This is more or less the reverse of the 2009-10 winter which saw a persistently negative AO which set the stage for the Mid-Atlantic snowmageddon.

The world in which we lived has obviously taken a very dark turn over the past few weeks as the threat of this virus has gotten very real. Plenty of folks, with more expertise, can give you all the advice about how you should act and what you should or shouldn't do. All I can stress is that I love being part of this Mad River Glen skiing community and I have faith we will use every bit of mental toughness to get through this. The world might look different at the other end and certain things might never be the same but we will persist. Our values as a community will most definitely endure and transcend all of this. Be generous, respectful and helpful toward one another but we do that anyway so keep doing it !

It's a mostly rain event Friday and more very mild air is poised to invade New England between March 19-21

The non-wintry outlook remains in place through the middle of March. Temperatures are a bit closer to seasonable levels as of Wednesday, March 11 and should stay that way over the next week or so. As I suspected however, the late week weather system appears to be mostly rain. The wet weather will arrive early Friday (just before dawn) and it follows a mostly cloudy day Thursday. The rain could be mixed with a few wet snowflakes on the mountain but temperatures should hold steady in the mid to high 30's. We can expect a bit less than a half inch of rainfall overall and it should end rather abruptly late in the ski day.

We have a bit of modified arctic air that will work its way into northern New England in the wake of Friday's rain. It will be a bit blustery Saturday but temperatures will remain very March-like with readings in the 30's on the mountain during the day and falling off into the 20's Saturday evening. Sunday and Monday will be two of the more winter-like days on the mountain with temperatures staying mostly below freezing during the day and falling well into the teens during the night. Fortunately the Saturday through Monday period will feature healthy doses of sunshine and Sunday and Monday will should see relatively calm winds.


Before temperatures modify during the middle of the week, we actually could see a bit of snowfall, quite possibly even the biggest snowfall of the month (which isn't saying much in this pattern). The warm-up late in the week however appears intense and is likely to feature another multiple day stretch of 50-plus temperatures (perhaps even warmer) and some additional rainfall.

The large ridge positioned over the Gulf of Alaska which has been generally driving the early melt-off is expected to migrate toward the Bering Sea by around the time of the Spring Equinox. Though it won't put the focus of cold on New England it will result in more cold weather in North America as a whole with some of this reaching Vermont. The snow potential is likely to remain low through the weekend of March 21st and 22nd but some is certainly possible in the week that follows.

A mostly non-snowy outlook remains in place for northern Vermont but there a few items worth watching

The corn horn soundeth and did so in resounding fashion beginning on Sunday. Monday was a fantastic day on the hill thanks to sunshine and though we will have a bit more in the way of cloudiness on Tuesday, the balmy, near 50 degree readings will continue. Most importantly, I think a good chunk of Tuesday will be precipitation-free. Yes, there will be some occasional light rain and that will intensify late in or after the ski day but for much of the day, the rain will be confined to the St Lawrence Valley or Adirondacks. This rain is associated with a cold front that will bring temperatures back below freezing by Wednesday morning and those more seasonable temperatures will be with us for the rest of the week.

The forecast as a whole continues to be rather non-wintry though there are a few items worth watching over the next two weeks. Following a pair of mostly dry weather days both Wednesday and Thursday, with only minimal amounts of sun, a significant weather system will impact the region on Friday. Recall that it was Friday that was highlighted as a possible time frame where some wintry weather might impact Vermont in spite of the prevailing mild pattern. In the aggregate the forecast for Friday has warmed and precipitation appears to be rain but the Monday afternoon American model suggested a scenario that included a stronger coastal low and some potential wet snow. This situation is worth watching but I am very skeptical of the snowier scenario and the recent run of the European Model suggested this would be a very tough ask. That said, I would approach Friday expecting mostly a cold period of rain but keep an eye on the forecast for changes. 

Another 2-3 day period of mostly seasonable temperatures along with some dry weather will follow beginning on Saturday and extending into early next week. There should be a decent amount of sunshine in this period but temperatures will be well below freezing during the overnights and only a little above freezing by day and this will limit some of our beloved corn snow. Temperatures are again likely to get milder as next week progresses and additional rainfall is possible during the middle or later part of the week.

Looking at the weather pattern as a whole, the biggest feature in the collection of mostly adverse set of teleconnection indicators, is a the strength of the jet stream ridge that is expected to emerge in the Gulf of Alaska. This certainly does not encourage any widespread outbreaks of cold in eastern North America and much of the unsettled weather and snowfall will be focused on the Rocky Mountain west for much of the middle to end of March. That said, the strength of this aforementioned ridge will allow  notable amounts of arctic air to spill into much of Canada. As we approach the spring equinox the cold in Canada will become intense enough to make some in roads into northern New England and I thus think the period between March 21st (A Saturday) and March 28 will be colder and potentially more wintry verses what we have seen so far this month.

Some light snow for Friday and cold, blustery weather for Saturday but after that we are mostly mild with lots of spring-like weather

The best way I can spin our weather outlook is to emphasize the abundance of sunshine this upcoming weekend. The storm system that will consolidate well offshore is likely to result in a period of light snow on the mountain Friday afternoon but accumulations are likely to be fairly light, like under 2 inches. Saturday is a blustery and chilly day with increasing amounts of sunshine as the day progresses. Temperatures are likely to stay sub-freezing on the mountain, but this is likely one of the last such days of the season. Following a chilly night Saturday night with temperatures in the teens, sunshine will boost readings to 40 Sunday with lighter winds.

The early part of next week continues to appear mild with readings up near 50 Monday. Clouds and a bit of rainfall Monday night into Tuesday will likely keep temperatures in the 40's, extending the thaw into Tuesday. That early week weather system is not especially intense but will nonetheless have some cooler temperatures that will arrive as it clears the region later Tuesday into Tuesday night. The balance of the week then appears more seasonable and there will be a short window of time when some winter weather is possible with the passage of a wave of low pressure likely Thursday. Temperatures are then likely to moderate to above normal and above freezing levels around the weekend of the 14th-15th of the month.

In a general sense, the outlook looks just plain bad for winter weather. Every teleconnection index, the AO, EPO, NAO, PNA are all unfavorable. The jet stream in the Pacific has been a special kind of disaster with the same ridge in the jet stream parked almost the same place since late December. This being the Aleutian Island ridge underneath the unblocked Arctic creating the dynamic of the fast west to east flowing consolidated Pacific Jet stream. My inclination is to attribute the persistent weather features in the Pacific to the area of sea surface temperature warmth that has been located there. It has been of particular note in what has become a very negative PDO winter, something we haven't mentioned that much. In our original outlook, the PDO was marginally negative, became neutral in December before turning very negative in January in February. There are times when this can be deceiving but the dramatic and persistent cold in 2015 combined with the record setting California drought were a result of an extremely positive PDO (the most positive ever recorded in fact), so this data certainly matters and played a big role this year. The middle of the month thus looks very mild and likely mostly free of winter weather.

Weather pattern still looks decidedly mild overall with a few wintry interludes

The effects of the March weather pattern I've been worried about began impacting the high country on Monday with temperatures surging to 40 in spite of a mostly cloudy sky. We can expect more of this in the coming 2 weeks and some rain Tuesday night. The wet weather is the result of the same weather system that spawned the deadly tornado Monday night in Nashville. There is no such severe weather risk in Vermont and several hours of rain will result in 2 or 3 tenths of an inch of total rainfall with temperatures in the high 30's. Though arctic air is scarcity in this pattern and certain will remain in the wake of the rain Tuesday night, the atmosphere will cool enough to provide a stage for some elevation sensitive snow showers Wednesday. It will be one of those early spring days where temperatures vary greatly from the base to the summit with temperatures ranging from 40 near the base to 30 at the summit.

Temperatures will drop well into the 20's Wednesday night and we should see a period of sunshine on Thursday. Thanks to some very calm winds, it should be a very nice day overall with temperatures rising into the 30's.

So, we do have a bit of winter weather to still discuss though it remains surrounded by some very spring-like weather. The Friday situation was a wing and a prayer to begin as far as substantial snow was concerned and though we are likely to receive a bit of light snowfall, accumulations will likely be less than 4 inches. The weather map consists of an approaching Pacific disturbance turned clipper that will try and phase with an exiting southern branch storm. The two storms will ultimately phase with the clipper evolving into an inverted trough like feature as one consolidated storm deepens off shore. Unfortunately, this inverted trough will focus the snowfall mostly across New York state and southern New England and the strengthening offshore storm will actually steal a chunk of northern New England's moisture. A period of light snow is still likely on Friday with some accumulation possible though I am doubtful it amounts to more than a few inches if even that.

With that said, we've had to endure several cloudy periods lately and once Friday's storm makes a full exit, we should see a sunshiney weekend. Saturday will be a sub-freezing day and it will certainly start on the blustery side. Sunday looks to be outstanding with minimal winds, some sunshine and temperatures climbing up toward 40.

The mild weather next week appears as if it will peak on Monday with temperatures possibly reaching 50. The mild weather early next week could be accompanied by a bit of rainfall and the system responsible could push somewhat cooler temperatures into the region for the middle of the week. Toward the end of the week there is another possible winter weather situation that will need to be watched before temperatures should again respond to a prevailing weather pattern that favors cold weather in Alaska, unsettled weather on the west coast and mild spring-like temperatures across the east.

Outlook looks mostly mild for the next two weeks but this surrounds a potentially interesting snow situation this upcoming Fri/Sat

March at Mad River Glen has begun just as it should, with deep snow and cold weather. Hope everyone got a chance to make a few good turns over the weekend. Following a chilly Sunday night, it will begin to feel like March with moderating temperatures and a bit of mud on those dirt roads. The push of milder temperatures Monday will be accompanied by clouds and perhaps even a little light rain. Any precipitation should be fairly inconsequential however with the bigger story being the above freezing temperatures of 35-40 degrees.

For the most part, those above freezing temperatures are expected to continue through Thursday. We are worried about some precipitation but it should hold off through much of the ski day Tuesday, a day that should again feature clouds and temperatures hovering in the high 30's or low 40's. Dewpoints temperatures are expected to climb to around 30 on Tuesday which might help initiate some corn snow. The precipitation is expected to arrive Tuesday night thanks to a suddenly active southern branch of the jet stream. Temperatures will not be as excessive as I had feared about a week go but they will still be mild enough for a mostly rain event Tuesday evening and night across the low lying areas. Above 2500 or 3000 feet, some mixed precipitation or even a period of all snow is possible. Any accumulation will be very, very gloppy but it certainly preferred over rain. This precipitation should end early Wednesday and we will be left with a mostly cloudy day with near freezing temps across the highest elevations and near 40 degree temperatures in the valley.

The end of the week looks a lot more interesting over past few cycles of model data. I put a one sentence blurb about the possibility for snow Friday but that hardly does justice to the situation as it stands right now. Thursday appears pretty tranquil in Vermont and it might be the best chance to see some sunshine this week which would accompany seasonable temperatures. Meanwhile, a strong southern branch feature will be pushing toward the southeast coast and bringing heavy rain in its path. This storm is not expected to phase with a Canadian clipper system initially. That system will approach Thursday night and Friday and bring some cloud cover and eventually some light snow as the day progresses on Friday. The bigger question however relates to whether this storm can pull a 9th inning phase and suck some of the departed southern branch energy back toward the coast late Friday or early Saturday. Model data from both the European and Canadian suggests this to be the case but one has to be skeptical. This is not an impossible outcome but nonetheless an atypical one. If it does happen, we can expect some substantial snowfall followed by windy and cold weather Saturday. If it doesn't happen, we should see some light snowfall late Friday followed by blustery and cold weather Saturday.

Temperatures will moderate a bit by Sunday afternoon and there continue to be strong indications that this will be start of a period where a large ridge in the jet stream will establish itself over the east coast. This has been indicated for sometime and given the time of the year, we should expect a serious round of spring weather starting March 9th. It doesn't look like March 2012 but it does appear likely that temps can reach 50 degrees multiple times between 3/9 and 3/15.