Tuesday storm remains a close call but we remain on the wrong side of this for now

Terrain enhancement hit MRG in a massive way over the last couple of days and the mountain is back to its somewhat more usual February self. This type of event was perhaps the one missing item from the winter last year and since we have missed about every storm this winter, it has been one of our only sources of snow so far. A polar disturbance associated with the "attack of the PV" will bring snow showers and snow squalls back to the region early on Saturday. It will windy and bitterly cold but  it will snow a bit and accumulations will range between 2-5 inches. I've discussed temperatures a few times and you've seen the forecasts which really haven't changes too much over the past few days. It will probably be close to -10 by late in the ski day Saturday and close to -20 early Sunday before rebounding to near zero. No snow is expected on President's day but we should see an increase in high clouds from the approaching Tuesday/Wednesday storm and temperatures will climb back toward the high teens.

We have another few rounds of additional data regarding the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. Some encouraging news came in the data released as of midday Friday but this remains a less than optimal situation unless we get some additional changes. This particular storm will start in rather innocuous fashion before getting "juiced up" along the gulf coast on Monday. After that the storm proceeds up the eastern seaboard, eventually turning due north or just east of due north. Snowfall for us depends on the longitudinal (east/west) position of this storm. The European and its ensembles take the storm over Albany which would be a crusher for us. We'd get some snow early Tuesday but this would go to ice and ultimately plain rain for a time. Some minimal snowfall would then fall on the back side of this system on Wednesday. One could look at this event as a "base anchoring" type of scenario but I would prefer this in December not in mid February.

The "Euro" scenario is not etched in stone yet however. The latest American model is about 100 miles further east verses the Euro and the new Canadian is about 50 miles east of that. Every single mile is critical here. The Canadian for instance is suggesting a sizable mostly snow event and though the American GFS is still indicating some ice and perhaps a small period of rain, precipitation would turn to snow and accumulate substantially by midday Wednesday. The morale of all this - move this storm farther east.

A less intense surge of arctic chill arrives by Thursday and grips Vermont through Friday. We then contend with another warm surge but much of this I think will get thwarted. In fact, there are a few suggestions of overrrunning snow either Friday or early Saturday. In the end I do think the mountain gets a day of above freezing temperatures either Saturday or Sunday but this will have a quick end. The pattern beyond that appears to be anchored by a beautiful looking ridge in the jet stream across western North America. This will mean cold weather and another good window for snow during our last week of February and perhaps into early March.