A mostly non-snowy outlook remains in place for northern Vermont but there a few items worth watching

The corn horn soundeth and did so in resounding fashion beginning on Sunday. Monday was a fantastic day on the hill thanks to sunshine and though we will have a bit more in the way of cloudiness on Tuesday, the balmy, near 50 degree readings will continue. Most importantly, I think a good chunk of Tuesday will be precipitation-free. Yes, there will be some occasional light rain and that will intensify late in or after the ski day but for much of the day, the rain will be confined to the St Lawrence Valley or Adirondacks. This rain is associated with a cold front that will bring temperatures back below freezing by Wednesday morning and those more seasonable temperatures will be with us for the rest of the week.

The forecast as a whole continues to be rather non-wintry though there are a few items worth watching over the next two weeks. Following a pair of mostly dry weather days both Wednesday and Thursday, with only minimal amounts of sun, a significant weather system will impact the region on Friday. Recall that it was Friday that was highlighted as a possible time frame where some wintry weather might impact Vermont in spite of the prevailing mild pattern. In the aggregate the forecast for Friday has warmed and precipitation appears to be rain but the Monday afternoon American model suggested a scenario that included a stronger coastal low and some potential wet snow. This situation is worth watching but I am very skeptical of the snowier scenario and the recent run of the European Model suggested this would be a very tough ask. That said, I would approach Friday expecting mostly a cold period of rain but keep an eye on the forecast for changes. 

Another 2-3 day period of mostly seasonable temperatures along with some dry weather will follow beginning on Saturday and extending into early next week. There should be a decent amount of sunshine in this period but temperatures will be well below freezing during the overnights and only a little above freezing by day and this will limit some of our beloved corn snow. Temperatures are again likely to get milder as next week progresses and additional rainfall is possible during the middle or later part of the week.

Looking at the weather pattern as a whole, the biggest feature in the collection of mostly adverse set of teleconnection indicators, is a the strength of the jet stream ridge that is expected to emerge in the Gulf of Alaska. This certainly does not encourage any widespread outbreaks of cold in eastern North America and much of the unsettled weather and snowfall will be focused on the Rocky Mountain west for much of the middle to end of March. That said, the strength of this aforementioned ridge will allow  notable amounts of arctic air to spill into much of Canada. As we approach the spring equinox the cold in Canada will become intense enough to make some in roads into northern New England and I thus think the period between March 21st (A Saturday) and March 28 will be colder and potentially more wintry verses what we have seen so far this month.