April rollercoaster begins with elevation snowstorm that came close becoming historic for the season

The last regular update of the winter season includes a classic roller coaster ride of April weather in Vermont. A bit of everything as they say with big swings in temperature and a variety of precipitation types which at times could be falling pretty hard atop both the Vermont high country and the low lying valleys.

I haven't updated in several days but our late week storm that was teased as a potential snow producer is poised to deliver some of those goods. The storm has the capability of becoming that elusive April 2-footer but will fall short of that status but not by much. The chess pieces are well positioned with a nice block in the jet stream over the Northwest Passages (small body of water NE of Hudson Bay) and a closed low  in the jet stream over the Canadian Maritimes often referred to as the 50-50 low. A very strong jet stream impulse will attempt to plunge into this set up and is poised to become a big New England precipitation and snow producer. The maturation of this storm is close to perfection for northern New England as a whole but will belly flop just enough so that the heaviest snow is confined to areas north and east of Vermont (northern Maine mostly). Still, Vermont, especially the high country of Vermont will get several inches of snow.

Precipitation will be mostly rain as it commences Thursday morning but areas above 2500 feet could see a period of heavy wet snow with any intense areas of precipitation. The chances for this should actually increase as the day progresses and the threshold elevation for snow will also drop as we move into the afternoon and evening. The axis of low pressure will pass directly over the state of Vermont and continue to strengthen while pushing east. Much of the state will attain access to the colder conveyor of moisture Thursday evening into early Friday and this means snow pretty much everywhere, even in the low lying valleys. Accumulations by midday Friday could be as much as 10 inches above 2500 feet but will likely be confined to a few gloppy inches or less below 1500 feet (which is where most of us live).  Snow consistency will also be very sensitive to elevation with the possibility of a few powdery inches across the high country as temperatures drop into the 20's early Friday. In low lying areas temperatures are likely to hover near or above the freezing mark Thursday night and much of Friday. This storm reminds me a bit of our late February storm, an event where we overperformed and saw over 15 inches. We are dealing with late season challenges that will make that event difficult to replicate but it would have been a nice way to close out the season hypothetically speaking.

Conditions will be blustery through Friday into Saturday even as the snow tapers off. Temperatures are likely to top out only in the low 40's Saturday but Sunday should be a little tamer with calmer winds and readings up near 50. With a little help from some sunshine Sunday, we could actually do several degrees better than 50 but I am not so sure about such help right now.

It will get interesting early next week and worth watching but not because of snow. The big ridge over Alaska is working its magic and will result in an onslaught of cold and wintry weather across the front range late this weekend. The storm responsible is a big one and will gather a lot of Gulf of Mexico moisture as it travels north and east. A LOT of moisture capitalized. Both heavy rain and wind are possible on Monday across the northeast along with relatively mild though not excessively mild temperatures. In recent years we've had some big spring storms result in power outages and some minor flooding across the state and this appears to be a candidate for both though some changes are still possible. When the rain ends late Monday we could also see a one day surge of in temperatures into the 60's Tuesday. After that, some relative chill returns although the bulk of this will impact the central United States and this airmass will modify somewhat before reaching New England.

The pattern though through April 20th continues to look cold and capable of producing more winter weather. That said, regular blogging activities will come to an end with the next post consisting of a seasonal summary. If some interesting weather comes around, I'll certainly talk about it on twitter some, especially since I can't complain about Mets baseball right now.