2020 ends fittingly and northern Vermont rounds the bases on misses and then some

 Hope everyone has and is enjoying their holiday this year. I can't say I am especially enjoying this weather or how the forecast has evolved for the upcoming week. The year started out pretty lousy as we lost one of my favorite musicians, the pandemic continues to unleash its own version of invariable hideousness and the holiday week, fittingly, turns into an abomination on the weather side of things. It's both confounding and frustrating since the pattern has and continues to be mildly supportive. The combination of split flow in western North America and an intensifying blocking jet stream structure in southern Greenland is something I'd certainly sign up for knowing nothing else. This particular -NAO and it's associated blocking has migrated too far south and west however and is allowing relative warmth to find its way into New England at least periodically. What is especially unusual is the storm track. Sure, all that downstream ridging in the jet stream can throw up a brick wall on storms and often this results in maritime hang up systems. This brick wall has been set up way too far west and more amazingly, storms are not tunneling underneath as they often do in these setups, saving our beloved ski country of mild intrusions. 5 days ago I was more concerned with the storm on 12/29 and the New Years storm being too far south. Now both appear too far north to be of much good, and in the case of Near Years, it looks quite bad. 

Many places in the central part of the country did experience some wintry weather and snowfall this Christmas, it just wasn't us. The cold air was of a garden variety intensity but managed to push southward and bring temperatures below freezing in the panhandle of Florida Christmas morning. This while Vermont was raining and in the 50's. A modified version of this cold air will bring temperatures back to more seasonable levels over the weekend with some accompanying snow flurries and snow showers. Accumulations will be be pretty minimal however expect for locations from Stowe north to Jay Peak where 1-3 inches are likely. 

The system on Monday 12/28 has wasted all of its potential. This is a storm that might've exploded off the New England coast and subsequently had no place to go in the Canadian Maritimes with all of that downstream blocking; instead, the system is tracking way too north and is way too benign. All of Vermont is situated in the wrong quadrant given this track and valley locations of southern Vermont might only see a cold rain shower or two. The high country around MRV is still capable of procuring 1-3 inches and the incoming cold weather Monday night is accompanied by a wind direction favorable enough for some Champlain/terrrain wind blown powder.  Across valley locations, Monday's temps will make a run at 40 when its not snowing. Tuesday and Wednesday will be seasonable however with readings in the 20's during the day.

Northern Vermont has rounded the directional bases as far as misses this month. We've missed or failed to procure decent snowfall in storms that have tracked too far north, too far east, too far south and too far west. The end of 2020 will, fittingly, feature another system that will track way too far north and west yet again. The same theme applies yet again. Often times storms will tunnel underneath in a negative -NAO set up often missing Vermont to the south or delivering as they did in March of 2018. This storm, like the two predecessors will track way too far north. Very surprising but very 2020. We should be able to keep readings below the freezing mark until New Years eve and we could see some icing but ultimately, precipitation is likely to become rain yet again with 2021 starting way too mild. 

Beyond the New Year I would certainly like to see the blocking structure in Greenland confined to Greenland. Ensembles indicate that the feature is so broad in influence that much of northeast Canada and New England is robbed of its supply of arctic air. This in addition to the obstacles the current weather pattern has given us on the storm track side of the equation. It doesn't appear that we are going to get much help in the near term taming the Pacific so although I like the -NAO, it has to be more cooperative and set up shop closer to home and not intrude on our space. Maybe when the calendar turns to 2021, this will magically occur because 2021 is not 2020.