3-6 inches in the MRV by midday Thursday, over a foot in southern VT and the outlook for the Xmas holiday looks mostly wintry !

No shutout in the MRV ! This storm won't give us what we needed but it will give us something. That something, about 3-6 inches of cold smoke, will begin just after midnight Thursday and persist through the midday hours Thursday. As you've likely heard, accumulations across the state of Vermont will vary greatly based on location. The Champlain Valley will likely struggle to get an inch but Bennington and Windsor Counties are now positioned to get a chunk of the heavy snow from this impressive nor'easter with over a foot likely in the ski area such as Mt Snow and Stratton. Heavy snow and high winds will make blizzard conditions possible in these same areas with the sweet spot for snow setting up in a corridor from northeastern Pennsylvania through the Catskills to the Berkshires. 

We've also got the cold arctic air in place which aside from producing a powdery snow early Thursday, will keep temperatures well in sub-freezing territory through at least early Sunday. The sun should make a return for most of Friday allowing temperatures to rebound into the 20's after starting near zero. We expect a repeat of that on Saturday but with less wind (Friday should feature a modest 10-20 mph wind). 

A series of innocuous looking jet disturbances will bring the next chances for snowfall to northern Vermont between Sunday and Tuesday.  Potential Sunday snow comes from what appears to be a very disorganized area of moisture but it is associated with a milder push of temperatures and this has a tendency to produce snowfall for us historically. Vermont actually appears capable of fending off most of the incoming mild air in the days ahead of Christmas and another benefit of this will be the chance for more light snow Monday or Tuesday. This system is another of the polar pacific variety and will be short on moisture but a little more potent than Sunday's system and certainly capable of delivering a few inches. 

A mild push of temperatures remains a concern around the time of Christmas Eve. In recent days the milder air has looked both weaker and less capable persisting beyond a day at most. That said, there is a chance we see a little rain in this period before much colder weather overtakes the region for Christmas Day and the weekend that follows. We've been trending in the right direction during this forecast period so I still it's possible we can remove any mini thaw/rain from the outlook but it remains a risk for now. 

Ensembles have been showing signs that the angry Pacific jet will get pacified (pun intended) around the New Year allowing for the possibility that we start 2021 on the colder side of average. We have quite a bit of time until then however and we will need our negative AO to keep working on our behalf in the meantime. The -AO has had a bit of an impressive run and is expected to include high latitude block on the eastern hemisphere side of the arctic circle. I expect this to help keep arctic cold firmly entrenched across western, central and at times eastern Canada. For us, this leaves some uncertainty as to whether we can stay on the cold side through the rest of 2020 or do we get another brief mild interlude. The cold weather beginning Christmas Day should persist through about 12/28 but this is followed potentially by another milder push of temperatures around the 29th/30th . The term "mild" has the very negative connotation for us skiers but in the mid-winter period, a weak mild push might be the catalyst for a significant snow and thus the uncertainty. I don't think this is a terrible looking pattern though for the rest of December including the holidays. Aside from the brief thaw on Christmas Eve that might not even happen, temperatures look mostly below freezing with several chances for at least light snow.  Keep the faith !