We've got a colder trending upcoming next 10 days and we've made the weekend forecast a close call but have yet to complete the comeback as of later Thursday. What we can do in this update is guarantee a wintry next week. The stars aren't totally aligned for a massive widespread outbreak of cold across the United States but the combination of the block over the Chukchi Sea and the strengthening -AO/NAO combination is going to bring some intense cold to New England early next week, the first such occurrence of the season.
A relatively mild day is still expected Friday and the slightly above freezing afternoon temperatures are expected to persist through Friday night into early Saturday. At the same time arctic air will be building across eastern Canada and will try and make a slight southward into Vermont during the day Saturday. Though this push of cold should be effective enough to put northern Vermont back on the cold side of the temperature boundary, it does not seem to be enough to bring us snow. Far northern Vermont is likely to see some ice and the MRV appears targeted for a cold period of light rain. We aren't far from the snow however. Montreal should see a sizable amount from this event leaving us less than a 100 miles south of where we need to be. This is a lot of ground to make up in a few days but not impossible.
Low pressure associated with this precipitation will slide east of us by midday Sunday and any drizzle or light rain is likely to end as some snow flurries. For the most however, the weekend will end on the dry and mild side with temperatures remaining above freezing throughout the day before returning to sub-freezing levels late in the evening.
Now on to the good stuff. The outlook for next week has gained a bit of clarity and although snowfall remains uncertain, we know it will get pretty cold. That arctic air I've been talking about in Canada will take a swing at us as a polar vortex gets vertically stretched late this weekend into Monday. We stay dry and mostly seasonable Monday and then a few snow showers mark the incoming arctic chill Monday night. By early Tuesday, readings could be close to zero and might struggle to reach the teens during the afternoon in spite of what forecasts on your device are telling you now. The cold is what we know however, the snow is what we don't. We've got a solid amount of data indicating a storm advancing from the plains to the lower Mississippi Valley by early Wednesday and a beautiful looking cold air damming signature along the east coast in advance of this strengthening storm. Man, it feels like forever since the east coast has been blessed with a decent cold air damming event, I almost forgot it can happen !
All of this is good for east coast snow but what about Vermont snow ? Data on Thursday showed a better event farther south but by no means is this a done deal. We are positioned well for a shift and model data always, always shifts on any event 6 days out. As for the cold air, we should see our coldest temperatures Tuesday night into early Wednesday, the possible snow Wednesday into Thursday followed by sub-freezing but not quite as extreme temperatures to finish the week.
The longer range looks similar today with the same competing forces battling it out for control of the weather pattern. At face value, ensembles do show a slightly mild signature in the aggregate in the week leading up to Christmas but not strongly so. There are also indications of another weather event around the time frame of December 20/21. Other than that its a slightly angry Pacific and a negative AO/NAO duking it out.
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