Cold but dry week follows lingering snow showers Saturday but risk for warmer temps rises in early Feb

 Two  short-lived snow squalls were about all MRG could muster on Friday; which, when considering how well southern Vermont performed was a little disappointing. Fortunately, the snow did return late in the evening and will set the stage for what should be an outstanding day of skiing Saturday. We are in the "take no flurry for granted mode" with several cold but dry weather days on the way this week and the threat of a thaw on the rise in early February. 

The coldest stretch of days we've seen in 2021 begins on Saturday and those 10-15 degree temperatures will feel a lot of colder thanks to gusty northwest winds. Flurries and snow showers will continue for a good part of Saturday thanks to that wind direction and we could see a light accumulation on top of what fell Friday night. More sunshine can be expected Sunday but with similar temperatures and only a little wind. 

Our cold weather will remain in place for the upcoming week but the jet stream will be steering storms south of interior New England. The biggest jet stream feature in North America is a block located across northern Quebec and the Hudson Strait (connecting the Hudson Bay to the Labrador Sea). Two storms will tunnel underneath this blocking feature but this results in a very dry scenario. The presence of both these storms will shut off opportunities for snow showers though it will allow for several days of sunshine. Temperatures will remain stuck in the teens on Monday but rise into the 20's during the afternoons in the Tuesday to Friday time frame. Snow from the first area of storminess could get as far north as southern Vermont Tuesday night into Wednesday but that is about as good as we are going to do. 

 Our best chance for snow after January 23rd will likely come from some type of warm advection type scenario on the last weekend of the month. This comes ahead of a rising threat for a thaw during the first 5 days of February. Though it looks like the negative AO will remain in place in early February, the jet stream in the Pacific simply will not relent this year. In addition to forcing a retreat of our limited supply of arctic chill, it will likely focus storminess on the western US. With the help of the -AO we still have a chance at avoiding multi-day stretch of warmth or significant amounts of unfrozen precipitation but the risk has certainly gone up.