Models keeping most snow from early next week nor'easter south of Vermont but we've seen this movie before

A very cold and blustery Friday at Mad River Glen was made better by the addition of a few inches of snow. It was a very shallow layer of instability that produced that snow but it was enough to push the monthly total to 40 inches and make for a very wintry landscape as temperatures plummeted below zero. Though temperatures are expected to be well below zero again early Saturday morning, but sunshine should bring readings closer to 10 during the afternoon and although winds will continue to be a formidable 10-20mph (a little stronger at the summits), this isn't quite as strong as Friday. Winds will continue to abate for Sunday and temperatures will continue to moderate (closer to 20 during the afternoon) making for an excellent high visibility end to the weekend. 

Most of us are likely focused on the early next week time and the potential for a big nor'easter. We've got a pretty good sample size of model data for Friday with most (except for the Canadian GEM) keeping the bulk of the snow south of northern Vermont late Monday into Tuesday. At face value, models aren't shutting the state out of snow but are keeping totals fairly minimal. Additionally, the trend, at least right now is to keep the storm more subdued and farther south. This would undoubtedly be a more disappointing outcome in a setup loaded with potential but the path is hardly shut. This narrative has played itself out numerous times in northern Vermont and some of our best events over the last 20 years have occurred from storms that were forecast keep snow mostly south of the region 3-4 days out. Early March 2001, Valentines Day 2007, Ides of March 2017 all played out this way and the late northward shift wasn't an accident. Storms that undergo a dramatic intensification upon interaction with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean remain a challenge for medium range forecast models to get a handle on in spite of many improvements over the past two decades. When the right conditions present themselves, storms often end up stronger, more dynamically robust and track farther north and west, often preferring to hug the natural baraclinicity (temperature gradient) of the coastline as opposed to tracking more innocently out over the ocean. No this doesn't automatically but early next week is a scenario where it could happen, especially with a retreating polar jet stream. With that in mind, I still view the general outlook similarly to a few days ago. There's a chance most of the snow from this storm stays south and we get a 1-4 inch outcome and there is a chance for a late northward shift in the forecasted track of this storm and an outcome including more than a foot of snow. And one more thing about the northward shift, they tend to happen within 48 hours of the event (see the December nor'easter) and we remain 72-96 hours from the event. Stay tuned. 

We've got a comfortable day or two sandwiched in between the potential storm early next week and a potential thaw around February 5th and 6th. Again, model data is indicating a potential path through the threat of milder temperatures in this period but a storm is expected to pass well north and west of interior New England creating some challenging obstacles not excluding the possibility for a little rain. Ensemble data diverges as we get to the 8th and 9th of the month with the American simulation showing a quicker return to colder weather while European/Canadian shows yet another threat for a mild surge early in this 2nd full week of the month. More generally, I've been a bit more encouraged with the teleconnections over the past few days and I think an extended torchy period is unlikely even if a one day thaw is unavoidable.