Weather providing more of the variety pack to the MRV over the next week to 10 days

March is only a few days away and our weather has moved into that early March position accordingly providing us with a variety of very changeable weather. With that said, happy bluebird Friday ! Please get out and enjoy the winter-like temperatures and sunshine because in this weather pattern, it won't last ! The clouds are back by Saturday and so is the precipitation, beginning as a bit of snow in the midday hours and then changing to a bit of freezing rain or rain later in the day or into the evening. This does not appear to be a particularly robust overrunning set up, beset with low level southerly flow which will scour much of the sub-freezing temperatures out of northern Vermont by the end of Saturday. Precipitation is not expected to be especially robust either however and we can expect 1-2 inches of snow followed by a minimal ice accumulation. Another system will race east out of the Rockies on Sunday, tracking over the U.P. of Michigan before proceeding on a track over southern Canada. I think much of Sunday is simply dry, cloudy and mild and if the sun can break for a few hours (possible), it will turn the last day of February into the warmest since late December with above freezing temperatures (35-40) encompassing a large section of even the high country. Even with the clouds and mostly low visibility, Sunday appears mild enough to soften much of the snowpack at lower elevations and any rainfall is likely to hold off until very late in the ski day or during the evening. 

I think we got part of next week figured out, but continue to have questions relating to a potential storm in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. On Monday, we should sub-freezing temps return to the upper portions of the mountain while mild, slightly above freezing temperatures continue to prevail in low lying areas. Though I would not expect a full return to sunshine, any rain will be long gone and we can expect at least a few glimpses of blue sky to accompany the relatively comfortable early March temperatures. Colder, lingering arctic air in eastern Canada will then plunge southward late Monday evening, powered by a vigorous clipper system which will bring a period of snow showers and squalls to the entire MRV. It only appears to be a brief window for potential heavy snow but a pretty healthy one and certainly capable of providing us skiers with 2-6 inches of powder ahead of a cold ski day on Tuesday. The sun should make a full return later Tuesday but with temperatures hovering in the teens.

As mentioned, we still have some storm potential in the late Wednesday to Thursday time frame. This is an idea that the American GFS model has never seemed to warm up to but both the Canadian and European ensembles continue to hint at. It involves subtropical energy in the jet stream that has an outside chance of phasing with what's left of the polar jet and producing a storm of considerable significance along the east coast. This is not a likely scenario right now but a possible one that's worth a watch. 

In the longer range, we will continue to lose our longstanding high latitude blocking support and all the major ensembles have responded by suggesting a period of stronger above normal temperatures beginning around March 7th (a Sunday) and persisting through at least the 10th or 11th. Although there is more agreement regarding this idea generally, ensembles continue to disagree on when exactly this threat of warmth begins. The American continues to ride the warm train and jumps on early, showing above normal temperatures by the first weekend of March (6th and 7th) while the European is conveying a more winter-like March 6th and 7th before warmer temperatures commence on March 8th. The disagreement likely stems from the existence of that potential storm discussed in the preceding period. In spite of the warm temperatures advertised in the 2nd week of March, there are signs it won't last. Though we will lose the support of the AO/NAO in early March, the strength of the jet in the Pacific is also expected to gradually recede after peaking over the next few days. Though a return to a sustained period of below normal temperatures is unlikely in the middle of the month, I don't agree with the notion that winter is done after March 6th.