And for your all English teachers, the Single Chair Weather Blog wishes not to re-invent the English language but to instead make a positive contribution. I have already emailed the good people of Merriam-Websters dictionary and have informed them that the "Epicality index" is used in the extreme instances where MRG manages to get 40 inches of snow in half a week's time. Its just another teleconnection index !!!
Mauler gone wild
Referencing a post from around February 10th, the upcoming event Sunday would be storm #3. This is the "Manitoba Mauler" which has already made quite a dent in an already amplified jet stream. And this one like so many of the other big snow makers this year was indicated, for a time, to take a track where the big impacts would be felt by our southern neighbors. We are now just a day away and suddenly the expectations have shifted and the northern half of the Green Mountain spine is situated in a strategically perfect area for another big powder-fest. This is a storm that is already doing quite a lot of snowing with very little moisture and this is a demonstration of its dynamic prowess. When this storm interacts with the warmer Atlantic Ocean waters, it will deepens very rapidly and its moist conveyor will expand. Most importantly, the storm will take on a negative tilt and the process of doing so involves establishing a pivot point which in this case will be near the small strip of coastal New Hampshire. The area 100-200 miles northwest of this pivot point stands to get some V.I.P. treatment since it will dramatically extend the period of heavy snow.
Some timing and accumulation details
The details are as follows. Snow on Sunday will begin just prior to first tracks time and for a few hours will fall at a lighter intensity. An early guess is that the mountain only gets an inch or two by noon but the action picks up in the afternoon and it will clearly be one of those days where the last run of the day will be the most powdery. By evening I expect it to be dumping and with cold temperatures up and down the middle and lower troposphere, accumulations will be quite efficient and snowfall rates could be up around 3 inches per hour. By morning snowfall rates might slacken somewhat but not until after an impressive overnight accumulation of well over a foot. Some additional terrain induced snow Monday could bring totals close to 2 feet depending on the density/fluff factor. It will be a blustery and chilly day Monday with temperatures in the teens but you can not afford to miss this day after all the ongoings of the past week.
Save the bad news for last
The cold weather will persist through Wednesday morning but concern is rapidly increasing for a big ice to rain event late in the week. This event may not be the last in what appears to be a rather adverse week of weather beginning around February 26th. This is the result of all three teleconnection indices turning unfavorable thanks to the break down of the negative NAO. That is why I would take while the taken's good on Monday because we may have to wait until well into March to see another round of weather even half as comparable
Thank you thank you for all your time into these reports...they keep me motivated to keep the alarm clock at early early!
ReplyDeleteFirst off, I LOVE your forecasts. Your blog is my firefox homepage! I can't thank you enough for your climatological brilliance, your uncanny ability to see the future, and for sharing your prophetic wisdom with us! Keep up the good work :)
ReplyDeleteSecond, where did the "Mantiboa Mauler" get its name from?
If there's a weather reporting junkie out there, it is he, and long may he reign at his post. I am adding this forecast blog to my favorites, as it tells me what's happening 80 miles away -- on the VT/NH border -- better than anything else I am seeing. Go deep, Josh!
ReplyDeleteYou are the best at weather perdicting. What kind of magic do you use?
ReplyDelete