It has been long overdue but our time has finally come. A big surge of arctic air in the Plains will clash with very warm moist air from the gulf and the byproduct will be an intense winter storm. The effects will be very broad across the middle part of the country Tuesday into Wednesday as many cities such as Kansas City, St Louis and Chicago may see a historic snow. There was speculation amongst some that this would eventually turn into another major snow for the I95 corridor and considering the intensity of the storm some of this talk was perhaps justified. This particular system though will track across lower Ohio eventually hug the south coast of New England and move out over the Atlantic thus sparing the big cities any big snow.
This storm will resist attempts at reaching full maturation while over the Midwest and maintain a slightly positive tilt as moisture reaches northern Vermont and this is a very key element to our success. If the storm were to wrap itself up and occlude over the Midwest it suck mild air into the east coast and we would meet our doom rather quickly. A rather intense jet streak or confluence area across eastern Canada will prevent such an occurrence and the mountain will instead reep the benefits of the clash in moist conveyor belts. Snow will begin during the day Tuesday as overrunning precipitation extends well out in advance of the low pressure center. It will continue through the night Tuesday, through Wednesday while at times becoming quite intense and finally taper to flurries Thursday. So long as everything goes according to plan, accumulations of 20-30 inches on the mountain would be my expectation with big time powder days both Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will remain on the chilly side through the week and particularly late Thursday into Friday in the wake of the storm. The weekend should see readings rebound back into the 20's during the afternoons. There have been hints that another storm may form near the Virginia tidewater and make a run up the east coast Sunday morning but there have been yet to be any indications that this will result in any big snow for MRG. An early guess on the first full week of February is that the week begins with temperatures on the milder side, we see some snow and then temperatures turn very cold as intense arctic chill in Canada sneaks into New England. Teleconnection indices have turned on us somewhat as mentioned in the last post so although we still expect to see some cold, conditions could turn very changeable and a thaw in the first two weeks of February is possible.
For now lets enjoy this one since we have waited a long time for one like this.
Josh updated thoughts ?
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