We've officially entered a very active stretch of winter weather at Mad River Glen. The mountain got a big, cold dose of overrunning snow Friday and the 2nd wave associated with this big temperature boundary brings its moisture to the region Saturday. Many forecast sites including NWS suggests temperatures make a big climb beyond the freezing mark tomorrow. I don't see that, but we could a pretty wild inversion during the day with temperatures at the summits near freezing while readings stay in the 20's in the valley locations. The ice situation looks like this. Precipitation should be pretty light in the morning, perhaps just a bit of freezing drizzle, but the heavier stuff should start to impact MRG by midday and icing could be significant. By the end of the day, most areas will have a rather glazed snowpack with 1/4 to as much as a 1/2 inch of ice.
A weak area of high pressure will build across the region Saturday night and will help to make Christmas Eve the rare dry day in an otherwise very active weather week. It won't last long however as the third and final wave of low pressure is ignited along the same temperature boundary that produced the prior two. The storm will form across the central Appalachian Mountains but merge nicely with a clipper system traveling through the Great Lakes at the same time. The nexus of the two systems will create a nice looking inverted surface wave that will ultimately strengthen into a nor'easter off coast of Maine. It won't produce a historic snow but it looks better than a stocking stuffer. Snow should begin late on Christmas Eve and continue into Christmas morning with temperatures supporting powder throughout. Looks like a 6-12 incher right now but instability should linger into Monday Night and Tuesday allowing for the possibility of additional snow to fall.
Very cold and very dry arctic air will eventually eliminate the snowfall by Wednesday but expect brutally cold temperatures with readings generally in the single numbers during the day (Wed - Fri) and 10 below at night. This airmass won't be the type that modifies over the unfrozen Great Lakes, it will attack us directly and smack us with the "unmodified" cold.
This brings us to the end of the week and another intriguing weather set up. The possibilities have already been outlined but the specifics remain unknown. That said, the weather represents a classic massive east coast snow setup around the 29th and 30th of the month which would be Friday and Saturday of the New Years Holiday weekend. Large, cold dome of high pressure to the north, low pressure to the south ready to ignite along the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. There's a chance any storm could remain to our south but they're enough forces in the ambient weather pattern, the remnants of a jet stream ridge along the southeast U.S. coastline, to help steer this storm along the yellowbrick road to glory. Stay tuned !
Cold weather is locked in through New Years weekend and if you are to believe the various ensemble simulations, through the first week of 2018. Even as the cold lingers, there are signs of changing fundamentals particularly in the Pacific Ocean where the jet stream is expected to tighten. It could be our first taste of an "evil empire" but the effects of this appear to be way out on horizon, like after January 6th or so. Until then, we should continue to add up the new snow and enjoy what could be the best start to a ski season since dare I say 2008-2009 or perhaps even 1995-1996 (the first year of the MRG coop).
Have fun and stay safe out there in all the varying forms of weather.
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