Forecast growing more wintry both in the near term and as we head into March

Much of the state remains afflicted with a glaring lack of snow for late February. Seems to be some cynical attitudes out there but I know Mad River hasn't given up and I certainly haven't given up which is wise considering how we roared back to life last year. There's plenty to talk about anyway with some wintry weather expected Sunday and some big storm potential for the back end of the upcoming week in the first weekend of March.

A low pressure conglomeration will approach the region tonight as a weakened area of cold high pressure tries to establish a layer of temperatures supportive for a winter storm. We are late in the ball game here and the ingredients appear to be thrown together at the last second but we are very close to a decent winter storm across central and northern Vermont as precipitation arrives Sunday morning. Temperature profiles in the lower troposphere appear to be mostly supportive of a sleet event but looking more closely, the above freezing layer, though several thousand feet thick is awful close to the freezing mark, and may be incapable of melting the snow while the heaviest precipitation is falling during the mid and late morning hours Sunday. Surface temperatures are likely to hover around the 30-34 mark (depending on elevation) but we should see a decent period of sleet and snow mixed with a period of heavy snow possible at some point before noon. The farther north you go across the state, the higher snow/sleet accumulations will be. Across the Mad River Valley, I would expect a dense 1-4 inches. It will make for a good foundation layer though I know it's a bit late in the season to care about that.

It does not look especially chilly in the wake of Sunday's precipitation mixture. With the help of sunshine, Monday and Tuesday, the last two in what has been a disappointing February will be spring-like with readings soaring into the middle 40's while dropping into the 20's at night. Wednesday should feature more clouds but similar temperatures.

In spite of the continuation of mild weather, the large block across Greenland will be building as advertised and will cause big changes in the behavior of the jet stream going into March.  The negative NAO will be aided by a negative AO and a weakened Pacific jet stream and is likely going to produce one of the more sustained stretches of wintry weather we have seen since early January. We don't have the support from the PNA however and in addition, it's March, so the intensity of the chill just won't be there. There should be plenty of discussion relating to storms however. Some will miss, some will hit but I will rather boldly suggest that the end of March could feature more snow on the ground than the beginning.

Talk of storms begins right now with a potentially big one in the works, bringing precipitation to the east coast as early as late on Thursday. The storm is expected to gather strength in the central Plains, make a direct run at some of the major Midwest metropolitan centers like Detroit and Chicago and then get forced eastward and perhaps even south of eastward as the very mighty block in Greenland puts an end to the run of warmer storm tracks. The setup has a ton of potential but remains a tenuous one. Cold air is lacking as evidenced by the warm forecast leading up to the storm. If the storm gathers strength and closes off too hard and too early, warm air could get sucked right into New England in spite of the favorable storm track. The storm might also get shunted too far south.

I can say this much as of now. If we can attain access to the healthy conveyor of moisture associated with this storm, we should get decent amounts of snow. The big accumulations might be confined to the mountains above 2000 feet but there's a very lofty best case scenario so stay tuned. The storms evolution along the east coast coast is also a question and mark and the possibility of a stall along the coast exists. Precipitation timing hypothetically speaking would involve a start around Thursday evening, continuing through Friday and quite possibly into Saturday given the right kind of east coast "stall". 

Another potential storm follows around the time of March 5th. This was part of the reason the American GFS model was suggesting 4-5 feet of snow yesterday in Vermont but data over the last 24 hours has this system well south of us. Lots of time remains however so lets wait and watch.

Biggest reason to be optimistic relates to my good friend who is the biggest snow-magnet I've ever seen in my life. Every where he goes, mother nature delivers 3 feet. He plans on arriving in Vermont late Friday.