Pattern to become gradually more supportive of snowfall after Wednesday Feb 21, but only slight chance we get some first aid by the end of weekend

El torchy has managed to get its hands on the state of Vermont. Some of the rainfall that's impacted the northern half to third of the state will push northward Tuesday night and allow for some limited sunshine Wednesday. This will allow temperatures to reach the excessive levels that many have already seen in the forecast. Even at the base of MRG, readings are likely to reach 60 while temperatures reach the 50's even across the high country. Though the corn horn will surely be sounding, the combination of winds and the excessive temperatures are sure to put a massive dent in the snow pack by Wednesday night. A strong cold front will allow some modified arctic air to drop into the region by early Thursday and temperatures are expected to be well below freezing as a result (20 degrees).

The weekend forecast has gained a bit of intrigue but we aren't where we need to be just yet. The strong Nina-like southeast upper ridge will still be a major player, but the falling NAO index is seeking to be part of the weekend equation and will likely keep El Torchy at bay somewhat. Subtropical moisture is also expected to be involved in what appears to be two garden variety precipitation producers. The decaying of cold weather will still be in place Friday and may allow for a period of snow or mixed precipitation Friday afternoon before precipitation ends as rain or a bit of freezing rain depending on your location Friday evening or at night. Saturday will then become mild though readings should stay in the 30's and 40's this time while a 2nd storm system gets better organized in the southern Plains and tracks northeastward toward the lakes. This 2nd system has virtually not cold air to work with at the start, but a limited amount of Canadian chill could get entrained into the storm if the storm's energy makes a decisive transfer to the Atlantic coast. Models weren't especially keen on that idea Tuesday afternoon but it remains a possibility. As of now, rain, mixed precipitation and snow could all happen Sunday and though the chances of significant snow remain small, it does exist.

Temperatures are expected to remain on the milder side of average through early next week and thus the remainder of the month but the excessive thawing will be over. Readings will generally be in the higher 30's Monday and lower 30's Tuesday. We will be watching some sort of storm, hopefully a strong one for later in the week. The big southeast ridge will be almost dead and by that point the negative NAO will begin driving the pattern for a time. We don't want to kill the warm ridge off too quickly or we might just see a suppressed storm track later in the week. Additional storms are likely in the week to follow but the question will revolve entirely on the track.  Without the support of the PNA and only a slightly weakened Pacific Jet, the temperature outlook early in March doesn't look especially cold; in fact, it may not even be below average but the pattern does support snowfall given the right storm.