We get a quick burst of winter this weekend, but mild weather is expected to dominate the region generally through February 26th

There is some improvement way out on the horizon around the time of February 26th or so thanks to the development of a block in the jet stream across Greenland which will help turn the NAO negative. Until then, the pattern continues to appear extremely adverse, bringing back the painful memories of the blowtorch we saw at the end of February last year. The warmer temperatures will soften snow conditions Thursday as readings rise into the 40's. The short term forecast also has northern Vermont avoiding much of the rainfall, which will be prevalent across southern New England Thursday night up to about southern Vermont. MRG will likely see a bit of light rainfall Thursday night, but an arctic boundary arrives by early Friday and will end round 1 "El Torchy" and the chance for any rainfall.

The burst of wintry weather arrives in time for the upcoming holiday weekend. The arrival of the cold will be accompanied by a short window where both low level instability and prevailing winds are favorable for snow showers from the Mad River Valley up to Stowe. We should see snow showers and a few snow squalls for a few hours on Friday across the high country. Accumulations will be limited by the time skies clear Friday night, but the mountains could see 1 to as much as 4 inches. Saturday is a seasonable day with diminishing winds and about as bluebird and bluebird can get. We won't be able to brag about the snow pack but I do appreciate those rare days in the winter where we can get great views of both the Adirondacks to the west and White Mountains of NH to the east.

More subtropical moisture will help generate a storm that will quickly track from the lower Mississippi Valley up toward the Virginia tidewater Saturday night. Unfortunately, there are no indications that the storm will track farther north and this means northern New England misses out on significant snowfall. There are indications of some and its still possible we end receiving more since these systems do have a tendency to make a late-inning northward shift, but as of now it looks like a light accumulation of 1-3 inches Saturday night into early Sunday. The rest of Sunday will actually feature a decrease in cloudiness with temperatures reaching the freezing mark late in the day.

Sub-freezing temps continue through Sunday night before balmy temperatures flood the region Monday. The Euro was leading the charge on what appears to be a very intense late February torch. Other models are now falling into line by showing a 3-day stretch of spring-like warmth. Without the help of some cooling and clouds from Quebec (which appears less and less likely), we could see readings well into the 50's Tuesday and even 60 in the valley locations. A cold front will end the 2nd round of El Torchy Wednesday but readings are likely to be up around 50 at least early in the day. Some rainfall is expected with the arrival of the cold front Wednesday though there are no indications of a heavy rain event; nonetheless, the thaw will be damaging since snow conditions are already thinner than we would like.

Though temperatures will cool toward the end of the week, another push of relative warmth is expected around the time of the last weekend of Feb. It's too early to tell what type of weather will manifest but at the very least, temperatures will remain above average and likely above freezing for at least one day. As mentioned above, the changing NAO should help bring about a more sustained stretch of more seasonable temperatures around Feburary 26h though there are no indications of arctic chill or below normal readings. I can't promise when and if any big snowfall returns. The pattern will certainly improve by the time we hit March but at face value it looks dry for New England though that prognostication doesn't mean much this far out.