There was a list of 2017-2018 snowfall amounts to date for eastern National Weather Service locations going around the twitter-sphere and Burlington was one of a very select few with below normal snowfall which means the Vermont snow hole is back. One of the reasons the "hole" has been so prevalent is the lack of events like the one we are expecting toward the middle to end of next week. Yes, we finally got one to trend our way and should get the added bonus of some terrain enhanced wrap-around snow, later Thursday, Friday and into the weekend. Ridiculous really that it took so long to score one of these types of events this season.
The northern Plains and Upper Midwest are getting snow and in some locations near blizzard-like conditions thanks to a strong wrapped up weather system that will occlude and gradually decay as it continues to head east. This occlusion will remain important since it will ultimately represent the general area moisture and instability that will park itself over Quebec, southeast Ontario and much of northern New England. The main area of precipitation will be concentrated around an area of low pressure that is expected to form around the Virginia Tidewater region Tuesday night, strengthen and proceed toward the eastern tip of Cape Cod Wednesday night, eventually passing just east of Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine Thursday morning. This track places the heaviest snow both south and east of Vermont but not by much. Even a 50 mile shift west would place a good chunk of the state into some pretty hefty snowfall with totals up to and exceeding a foot in a very short period of time. Right now it look like snow begins later on Wednesday, continues at a decent clip Wednesday evening and into the night and becomes more sporadic Thursday. But the accumulating snow should continue Thursday, Thursday night, Friday and even into early Saturday as lingering moisture will situate itself across the Green Mountains and will be converted into snowfall thanks to the terrain. I don't expect the snowfall to be especially heavy, but enough to produce 1-3 inch totals Thursday, and 2-4 inch totals Thursday night into Friday. The three day period beginning Wednesday and ending Friday is thus capable of delivering 10-20 inches of fresh snow and maybe even more if we get lucky. Though the consistency of this snow could be a little wet in the valleys, I expect mostly powder above 2000 feet. Regarding wind, this is not as strong of a weather system compared to last week's super'easter but it will nonetheless be breezy late Wednesday with 10-20 mph northeast winds but calmer Thursday and Friday.Temperatures on the hill will generally be in the 20's throughout the late week period both morning and night.
Flurries and snow showers will continue even into Saturday and there may even be some snow on Sunday as well, though amounts, if any will be on the lighter side. Temperatures during the weekend will get into the lower 30's on the hill and fall into the 20's at night. By this point, the focus shifts toward the March 12-15th period for what is expected to be a major east coast jet amplification. What is it about these dates that seem to be so prone to the big events. 1993, 1999, 2005, 2007, 2014 and of course 2017 all were years with big snows at MRG during that time frame. Might 2018 be included in that list? Though it remains very possible since the pattern is ripe for a big event early next week, most of the data Monday has all the storminess well south of Vermont. The hypothetical event is a week out however and many scenarios remain on the table. Below average temperatures, which means mostly below freezing, will continue through all of next week whether we get the big snow or miss it. The mountain and many of the surrounding mountains will get another chance for a storm around St Patrick's Day weekend before the pattern becomes more "unblocked" and the Pacific becomes more active. This is expected to allow for the potential for some thawing by the time we get to March 19th-21st.
Is there any way a layman can get an idea whether impending snow will be wet and heavy like last week's was in many places? Is it just a matter of surface air temperature: If that's just below freezing, it's likely heavy and dense? Or is there more to it? Thanks, and keep up the good work.
ReplyDeleteDavid he speaks to this: "Though the consistency of this snow could be a little wet in the valleys, I expect mostly powder above 2000 feet."
ReplyDeleteOf course that's happy path :)