Happy early opener ! We've got a bit of everything over the next few days but we can still hope that the upcoming week is a snowy one

Happy opening day ! Skiers were greeted with a calm, crisp, great visibility morning on the single and an incredible amount of November snow on the hill. Savor this, cuz it won't happen much. We have lots of weather over the next few days and beyond. It starts very early Sunday morning as arrival of precipitation unfortunately coincides with the retreating cold. Though temperatures aloft won't be too far from freezing, models are suggesting that this warm layer is thick enough to prevent significant snow and precipitation instead will fall as rain or some freezing rain between 5 and 10 am. As Sunday progresses, the warm layer aloft will cool somewhat and the rain could mix with or change to snow, especially across the high country before ending sometime in the afternoon.  The melt will be pretty minimal, but rain is rain and the November powder party will temporarily get shut down.

The Sunday weather system has a follow-up act Monday/Tuesday that has looked more and more promising. The temperatures situation still looks tenuous but I think the mountain is on the right side of this "tenuous" . Even without the influx of any serious cold, this early week weather system is a deeper one and will be supported by the development of a coastal low pressure system which will help enhance the moisture fee and stunt any significant intrusion of warm air. Models have been simulating a wide variety of accumulation totals mainly because the rate at which this storm matures remains somewhat a question. Temperatures in low lying areas will also hover at or just above the freezing mark meaning a rather gloppy accumulation below 1500 feet while a drier snow falls across the high country. Though we still have time to raise expectations some, a 4-8 inch storm is my early first guess by midday Tuesday with lesser and gloppier amounts below 1500 feet.

The Monday/Tuesday storm is supported by a pool of general instability that will allow flurries and snow showers to continue through as long as Thursday. The wind direction later Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday appears light but blowing from the west, southwest which is likely to focus much of the convective snow activity on the far northern mountains of Vermont. By later Wednesday that wind direction is expected to turn and become more northwesterly allowing some of those snow showers to impact areas further south. It won't be especially arctic with temperatures not too far from seasonable levels but remaining mostly sub-freezing on the mountains while creeping above freezing in the valley areas on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Colder nights will accompany some clearing very late in the week and this should set the stage for a sunny start and seasonable start to December.

We've had it very good the last two thirds of November. Certainly one of the snowiest I can remember in a while but no good thing lasts forever. The pattern actually remains somewhat favorable through early December but there are signs of a disconcerting warm intrusion around the 2-3rd of the month which coincides with a temporary weakening of the negative EPO which has been so incredibly supportive of this recent November snowy onslaught. Cold weather is expected to return by the 4th or 5th of the month and this is supported by negative Arctic Oscillation and what we expect to be some weaker ridging in western North America.