Forecast for early January trends somewhat away from both cold and snow

Though not a catastrophic update, this is certainly not going to be one of my favorite blog posts this season. The outlook has shifted somewhat away from the more wintry and in our case optimistic vision of what we were hoping January would become. Though it doesn't appear as if El Torchy will dominate the weather across New England, arctic cold also appears as if it will have a much more minimal impact on North America than we had hoped. This isn't the end of the world in a month like January, but its a disturbing trend that I would like to see put to bed and quickly.

We have now endured two thaws in the past 10 days or so and incoming cold and accompanying snow flurries do not promise to provide much relief. There are some encouraging signs regarding the upcoming storm system which will be fueled by sub-tropical moisture in the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The system, like the two priors, appears headed in a less than desirable direction but if you were to compare the track of these storms to one of my golf shots, at least this shot, though not a good one, might actually somehow end up somewhat playable. And this is essentially how I see this storm. Chilly air on Sunday December 30th will give way to a milder New Years Eve with temperatures up around 30 and a milder still New Years Day with afternoon readings near or above freezing. Precipitation will arrive on the evening of the 1st and is likely to fall as some snow or a snow sleet mixture for a time with a few inches of dense accumulation. A period of freezing rain is also possible by early Wednesday and so is another round of above freezing temperatures also early Wednesday. Unlike the two priors however, I doubt this storm provides a major opportunity for a thaw and may not at all. Much colder air will return by Wednesday evening and temperatures will be close to zero by Thursday morning.

Beyond Thursday January 3rd, the outlook doesn't appear terrible but I am especially disappointed at the disintegration of what once looked to be a prominent PNA structure. It still appears to be there but its rather pathetic looking. Furthermore, the lack of blocking at high latitudes is a glaring issue for North America and there is simply little mechanism available to eliminate a massive glob of anomalous warmth that will torch much of the eastern Rockies and central plains periodically through the first half of January. Though New England appears out of harms way, one would certainly feel more comfortable with more available arctic air. The cold air on January 3rd will quickly moderate by the weekend of January 5th and 6th and could give way to another round of above freezing temperatures, especially in valley locations. There is some southern branch energy around January 4th and 5th that appears largely cut off from a temporarily retreating and more dynamic polar branch of the jet. This part of the jet stream may return to provide New England with a return to colder weather around January 7th through the 10th but I had certainly hoped that the snow outlook up until the 7th and beyond the 7th would look better than it does. For now we have the snow/ice event on New Years and some weaker disturbances beyond that but nothing that looks especially significant.