Big MLK weekend snow remains on track, more snow potential emerges both mid-week and next weekend

Lots of excitement in the weather universe and lots of excitement in the east coast skiing universe. It simply doesn't get much better than a holiday weekend and a big storm capable of producing some big snow on some already big conditions. We have all the ingredients in the right place for this one. A fresh supply of  arctic chill and an approaching and strengthening storm which is in the process of exiting the Rocky Mountain region and will begin gathering moisture first from the Gulf of Mexico and eventually the Atlantic Ocean.

Temperatures will plunge to sub-zero levels Friday night and some sunshine might greet skiers on a cold Saturday morning. The sunshine, if we get some, will be short lived, but in a relative sense, it will be tranquil in spite of the cold. The wind for a good part of Saturday will be gentle compared to what we expect both during the storm Sunday and after the storm on Monday. Clouds will have enveloped the region by late in the day and snow will begin early Saturday evening. The snow will be light at first and become heavier after midnight as winds continue to increase. Sunday morning will be as wintry as it gets with wind driven cold smoke, moderate to heavy snow and temperatures not too far from zero. Roads will be snow covered undoubtedly, but it won't be the wet stuff that can often make conditions quite slick. Sunday is obviously a powder day but of the very cold and windy variety. Winds will become northerly and be gusting to 40 or even 50 mph at the summits. A "north" wind is not an especially bad direction for MRG if you know what I mean, but I make no guarantees.

The snow intensity will wane as the day progresses though it will continue to be very windy. I am going to stick with snowfall accumulations of 1-2 feet but the data does suggest that a narrow "best zone" for snow will be across central and southern Vermont during this event. I feel relatively good about securing a foot at Mad River but the two feet accumulations appear more likely from northwest Mass northward to about Okemo. Stowe and points north will struggle to get over the 1 foot mark but they should score a decent amount of powder regardless. Temperatures still look like they will be around -15 Monday morning and will stay sub-zero throughout the day along a continuation of very windy conditions.

After Monday, temperatures are expected to moderate and do so very quickly. The area of arctic air will temporarily shift westward early in the week and allow a weak ridge in the jet stream to establish itself along the east coast. Temperatures will be up in the teens on Tuesday and could potentially make a run at the freezing mark Wednesday. There is certainly some valid concern over this as a storm system approaches and the jet stream re-amplifies. Is it possible to get a wintry mix or even rain Wednesday after the wintry extravaganza of MLK weekend ?? In New England absolutely ! But models are telling a different overall story, at least to me. A story that appears quite volatile and that yes could include precipitation other than snow  for a time during the middle of next week, but could also include some big time additional snowfall. This could happen by means of this same mid-week system (wintry mix/rain could turn to snow) or could happen closer to the weekend from another potential storm. To put it plainly, there is so much that can happen from Wednesday the 23rd through the weekend and most of it is good. Not worth worrying too much about what could be just a little "bad"

Beyond next weekend and into early February we are still looking at a very cold pattern. This is anchored by all of the high latitude blocking in the jet stream which has already emerged   as of this blogging and will become more pronounced by late in the month. The active Pacific jet and the rapidly cycling MJO will likely prevent the pattern from maintaining a grip on the North America for the entire month of February but for us, the combination of storminess and cold is a terrific thing. Overwhelming cold can limit the snowfall which could happen for a time as January transitions to February but I don't think it will last long. For now, I have nothing but love for how this season has transpired and nothing I've seen today changes those feelings.