Still hoping to avert much of the mild weather next week but it's a tough ask

Mad River is concluding a cold yet productive week of skiing, procuring a few inches out of one of the longest snow squalls (from a distance standpoint) I can remember. Temperatures will climb well above the zero-degree mark by Friday afternoon with the help of our first day of February sunshine. As cold as it was across the midwest, Vermont will not record the coldest day of the winter during this cold wave since it was, in most places, 5-degrees colder on MLK day.

Over the next week or so, the cold will relent and we have some obstacles to overcome as has already been discussed. I have been waiting and hoping as the data continues to provide more clarity on the specifics of next week. Essentially, the jet stream configuration will change and re-center the cold much farther west in North America and allow a formidable ridge to establish itself along the east coast. It won't be the strongest ridge we've ever seen, we can look to the Super Nino December 2015 for that so there are questions about whether the mild air associated with this ridge will protrude interior New England. It has been my hope that we can fend it off at the last second as we've proven that we can sometimes do.

The last 24 hours of data continues to indicate glimmers of hope for first 7 days of February, but also  continue to show a mild intrusion and at least a little bit of rain. The first piece of good news relates to the upcoming weekend and involves a few things. A slower temperature moderation with temperatures remaining below the 30-degree mark through the weekend and a canadian weather disturbance capable of bringing some light snow and accumulating snow late in the ski day Saturday into Saturday evening. If we are lucky, we can squeeze a few inches of snow out of that, but it will take a lot of luck to get much more than that. Milder air is indicated to reach much of Vermont by late in the day Monday, ahead of the first in a series of what appears to be two storms. We can cling to a tiny bit of hope that this first storm tracks further south and we can avert a thaw, but late Monday and Tuesday do indeed look mild with at least a period of light rain. The colder air in Quebec is indicated to claw its way back into the state late on Tuesday into Wednesday and remain tepidly present for the 2nd  storm system later in the week. This appears to be more of a wintry mix right now but accumulating snow is possible again if we can push this system further south.

Cold, below freezing temperatures should prevail by Friday February 8th and continue through the weekend of the 9th and 10th. The overall weather pattern is not expected to change however with the focus of the colder air and unsettled weather positioned out west while at least a weak ridge in the jet stream and some milder air remains positioned across the southeast. Much of New England, especially interior New England, will be right in between thanks to the continued efforts of some high latitude blocking in the jet stream and some arctic air which should continue to remain close if not envelop us.