We got a bit of snow to get us back in the winter spirit very early Thursday but we will also have to contend with a mild day Friday. Fortunately, this will be a dry and somewhat sunny version of a mild day with temperatures reaching into the high 30's or lower 40's during the afternoon. At the very high summits, readings might stay below the freezing mark but by January standards, that goes down as quite balmy for January standards. Meanwhile, low pressure is organizing along the Gulf Coast and is readying to make a northeastward advance toward the Delmarva Peninsula. The good news here is that most of the precipitation will stay south of Vermont. I am calling this good because of the glaring lack of available cold. Sure, the high elevations could squeeze out a few inches given enough moisture and this might happen across extreme southern Vermont and the Berkshires of Mass but this is a less than ideal situation that we should be mostly content to simply avoid. Our Saturday at MRG should feature just cloudy skies with temperatures in the 30's. A surge colder Canadian air will advance into Vermont Sunday and bring with it some snow showers early Sunday, perhaps enough for a small accumulation. Temperatures will stay below freezing on the mountain during the day and drop into the teens and single numbers Sunday night.
And with that, lets move on to more important things, like the Vermont weather situation for next week. It's already been mentioned, a few times, about the prominence of "El Torchy" next week over a large expanse of the central United States. I am so pleased to report that New England will be left mostly out of this conversation even though temperature expectations have warmed significantly compared to a week ago. Furthermore, talk of snow has now been substantially amplified. There were indications of such going back 5 days but mostly through relatively innocuous circumstances. Now there real potential for a significant storm, one that will look initially like a decayed and mostly occluded Pacific storm that will seek a makeover along the New England coastline and hopefully attain nor'easter status before exiting by Wednesday January 9th. Making all of this happen and happen in the 15-30 inch snowfall kind of way, will require an important polar kicker (an upper air impulse in the northern stream that can be thought of as a PED for east coast storms) and a somewhat optimal track that allows both the necessary amounts of moisture and while limiting the amounts of warm air. We have some leeway here regarding the latter since we have established some loose consensus regarding the track of this storm and that some limited amounts of colder air will indeed be available across interior New England and interior New England only. The "polar kicker" remains a question mark however at least somewhat. If, how and when this infusion takes place are questions that remain still unanswered. The good news is that a "downside scenario" still should involve some accumulating snow (just less than 10 inches). The other good news is that the lack of arctic air might actually serve us well and make for a more unstable atmosphere Wednesday and thus enhancing our terrain enhanced snow prospects.
Moving along, Thursday and Friday of next week appear to be quieter days for the mountains as far as precipitation goes and Friday is the one day of the week where temperatures might make a run at the freezing mark. The weekend of the 12th-13th is then shaping up to be another very interesting time frame but I can't promise good news at least yet. There are strong indications of another moist southern streamer, strong enough to produce a substantial amplification in the jet stream along the east coast. Cold air looks very lacking at the the start of this event but not as lacking toward the end. It doesn't appear to be a big thaw but a situation where everything could be in play.
And then we are still trying to make sense of the middle of the month after January 13th. Significant disagreement still exists though there has been some movement toward an eventual consensus. It looks as though temperatures will be above average but it remains a question regarding how much. There is also stronger agreement/evidence regarding a continued active southern stream; which, if nothing else, might help save us from potentially excessive amounts of warmth. Both the GFS and Canadian ensemble members show some blocking emerging in the Arctic Circle which could help push more intense amounts of chill into Canada after January 15th or so. The European continues to tell a much weaker version of this story
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