The rainy interruption ends late Thursday with some snow and lots of cold for the balance of Jan

The fantastic stretch of January weather has been rudely interrupted and each piece of data seems to indicate more and more rain. Temperatures will surge into the 40's Thursday morning and the rain will be heavy for a time, but without powerful winds and excessive dewpoints, much of the snow should survive. That said the nearly inch of rain will cause some problems due to sudden runoff. The rain is expected to turn to a period of snow after about 3 PM and this could amount to a few inches across the high country before all precipitation ends during the early evening. Another forgettable mid-winter rain-fest in Vermont, perhaps not as bad as some but certainly worse than others and worse than this looked a few days ago.

The polar jet is expected to reemerge as a dominant player on our landscape almost immediately after the rain event. Temperatures will be back into the teens early Friday and the first in series of clipper-type systems will eventually spread snow showers back in to the state during the afternoon. Not much is indicated to fall during this time frame but 1-2 inches is certainly better than nothing at all and remember this will be the first. Saturday will be colder still with readings near zero during the morning and in the teens during the afternoon. Though flurries and snow showers are possible Saturday, accumulating snow is actually more likely Sunday as the second and stronger of these polar jet features impacts interior New England. This has the potential to be more of a 2-5 inch type of event with the most intense snow falling before first tracks time Sunday.

A third system and potentially the strongest will mark the southward advance of what we expect to be a fairly major polar vortex type of event. The coldest arctic air of the season is expected across the  midwest and ahead of this, a dynamic weather feature will spread snow in the New England in the Monday/Tuesday time frame though it remains uncertain what part of New England is best positioned to score the best snow. Recall that I had made mention of a some southern branch activity in past updates. Though this remains on the playing field, the indications are that this activity is overwhelmed by the polar jet. The ENSO has weakened some in recent weeks but not entirely so I wouldn't want to simply neglect any potential southern streamer which could still manage to significantly alter the forecast across a broad part of the eastern seaboard early next week. Vermont is also expected to be enveloped by the deep freeze later in the week with another round of sub-zero temperatures in the AM hours and near 10-degree highs. The shallow cold air is likely to cut down on the snow shower activity after Wednesday but its reasonable to expect 6-12 inches from the series of polar jet features over the span of 5 days (this Friday to next Wednesday).

Though February is expected to begin on the chilly side, there has been a developing consensus that the pattern will soften. The American Ensembles paint a picture suggesting a turn toward milder than average temperatures by about February 4th though there are other indications of a more tempered moderation according to other simulations. I have little doubt that the ferocity of the polar jet will weaken  after its attack on the U.S. next week but I would be surprised if we gave way to a completely mild pattern in February. The Arctic Oscillation is expected to remain negative and the Pacific appears as if it wants to remain on the benign side for the foreseeable future. Even if arctic cold is shown to retreat, New England is likely to fight the hardest to hold on to winter's chill as it has done so all season.