Skiing continues to improve as the snow piles up and negative PNA finally loosens its grip after causing a near record cold month in many places acrsoss the northwestern quadrant of the country. Our weekend weather continues to evolve and defy conventional wisdom but that's why its unwise to hitch oneself to a wagon headed for a cliff. There's enough of that going on in the world right now so I have no intention of bringing that anywhere near MRG. And the news is good anyway. One storm that seemingly had every imaginable thing going for it will whiff why the next which appeared destined to be an easy miss will end up delivering. Go figure !
No new snow for Friday but with temperatures well into the 20's during the afternoon, calm winds, sunshine and some great visibility it should be an outstanding ski day. Saturday will turn out to be a somewhat cloudier and a little milder version of Friday but nonetheless quite decent. As we enjoy our peace and tranquility, a coastal low pressure center will take shape, the storm that originally had so much promise will limp away from the east coast and cause a few inches of snow in some areas across southern New England that have had an awful snow year. So congratulations to them for that but they've had plenty of decent years this past decade while its been more of a struggle in northern Vermont, relatively speaking of course.
Saturday's storm will exit quickly but much of the baroclinic energy will remain across the southeast and sets the stage for the next and now more interesting storm. With little blocking in the jet stream downstream and the jet stream amplifying and establishing widespread cold setup for much of eastern North America next week, this did seem like a tough ask from this storm. But the jet stream across the southeast appears a bit stubborn about giving into the cold so abruptly and will help steer this storm northeastward just in time. We need a good track from this storm but indications are that we might get a near-perfect one with the developing low pressure area moving from the Chesapeake Bay to near Sandwich, MA Sunday night into early Monday. There is nothing spectacular about this storm but it will be a maturing storm with a healthy area of moisture. If we can keep this track in place (queue the Braveheart "hold" sequence), we can see a 8-16 inch event and an awesome powder day for Monday.
Monday's storm will be a quick mover and will not get stuck in the maritimes and we thus will not enjoy an extra opportunity for terrain enhanced snow showers later Monday into Tuesday. Cold weather will prevail and will persist throughout the week with temperatures near zero for lows Tuesday through Thursday and struggling to reach 20 during the days. A small disturbance in the midweek period will bring the potential for a small accumulation of snow.
A pattern change toward milder mid-month weather remains in the cards but it does look slightly slower and may be proceeded by an opportunity for snow around the weekend of March 9th or 10th. I'll give this a more detailed look next update. I do think it likely for a corn horn alert between March 11th to 15th for at least 2 days.
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Thursday, February 28, 2019
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
10-12 days of relative cold begins and chances for decent weekend snow remains but storm looks less robust
Hope everyone survived the ferocity of the wind this past Monday. There were reports that the wind exceeded 100 mph at the summit of Mansfield and 150 mph at Mt Washington. Colder temperatures now engulf the region thanks to those winds and this begins a 10-12 day stretch of relative chill that will cover a widespread area of North America through the first week in March. It's a simple question for us of how much snow can we squeeze out of this period of colder weather before a turn back to more milder conditions, which is still expected between March 8-10, give or take a few days. Though we have a nice ridge covering much of Alaska providing the fuel for this cold, we do not have the downstream blocking in the jet stream which can sometimes encourage the fun east coast fireworks we saw through the month of March last year. Still, we will have a few chances.
The first opportunity comes from a decaying area of low pressure which will progress quickly east from Illinois and position itself south of Long Island Wednesday night. Mad River Glen is on the northern edge of the moisture with this storm and will likely score 1-3 inches before first tracks Thursday. We haven't said this too much this year but the higher snow amounts are more likely over southern VT where 5-6 inches is possible if all goes well (though even that is a bit optimistic). After a very chilly Wednesday morning (-10 in a few spots), readings will climb into the teens under the advancing clouds. Sunshine returns Thursday afternoon which will boost readings up into the lower 20's and more sunshine will greet us on the first day of March which will help push readings toward the 30-degree mark.
I continue to think our best shot at significant snow comes over the weekend but model simulations have had a difficult time pinning this storm down. A few days ago, this appeared to be a very mature system, potentially too mature with both snow and some alternative precipitation types. More recent data suggests that this system will have more trouble infusing some of the jet energy responsible for amplifying the pattern. This where the lack of downstream blocking in the jet stream, alluded to above, might become a problem. The area of low pressure will advance out of the Rockies late on Friday but will need a bit of nutritional supplementation to become a greater version of itself. There is still room for this to happen but less room along the Atlantic Coast and less time since the storms energy is expected to clear much of New England by midday Sunday. I remain of the opinion that a half decent event is a good possibility with some snow late in the day Saturday into Saturday night resulting in some skiable powder Sunday, but the situation continues to evolve and is likely to do so in either direction so stay tuned.
Snow or no, temperatures over the weekend will be relatively seasonable during the day, not far from the freezing mark, and will turn sharply colder early next week. There is another weather system worth watching early next week, specifically Monday but the storm track will have shifted south by this point so it will be a tough ask. Smaller snow amounts from weaker weather disturbances are also possible during the middle of the week as the chilly temperatures remain in place.
A fully positive Arctic Oscillation, an increasingly energetic Pacific Jet and the demise of the ridge over Alaska all point toward a big temperature moderation by March 10. There remains some uncertainty in regards to the speed of this pattern switch and whether that will quickly throw us into spring skiing mode by the weekend of March 9th/10th or whether a "caboose" weather system can bring some snow and allow more wintry temperatures to persist until March 11. Both outcomes are still possible but the mid-March period continues to look very different than both 2017 and 18.
The first opportunity comes from a decaying area of low pressure which will progress quickly east from Illinois and position itself south of Long Island Wednesday night. Mad River Glen is on the northern edge of the moisture with this storm and will likely score 1-3 inches before first tracks Thursday. We haven't said this too much this year but the higher snow amounts are more likely over southern VT where 5-6 inches is possible if all goes well (though even that is a bit optimistic). After a very chilly Wednesday morning (-10 in a few spots), readings will climb into the teens under the advancing clouds. Sunshine returns Thursday afternoon which will boost readings up into the lower 20's and more sunshine will greet us on the first day of March which will help push readings toward the 30-degree mark.
I continue to think our best shot at significant snow comes over the weekend but model simulations have had a difficult time pinning this storm down. A few days ago, this appeared to be a very mature system, potentially too mature with both snow and some alternative precipitation types. More recent data suggests that this system will have more trouble infusing some of the jet energy responsible for amplifying the pattern. This where the lack of downstream blocking in the jet stream, alluded to above, might become a problem. The area of low pressure will advance out of the Rockies late on Friday but will need a bit of nutritional supplementation to become a greater version of itself. There is still room for this to happen but less room along the Atlantic Coast and less time since the storms energy is expected to clear much of New England by midday Sunday. I remain of the opinion that a half decent event is a good possibility with some snow late in the day Saturday into Saturday night resulting in some skiable powder Sunday, but the situation continues to evolve and is likely to do so in either direction so stay tuned.
Snow or no, temperatures over the weekend will be relatively seasonable during the day, not far from the freezing mark, and will turn sharply colder early next week. There is another weather system worth watching early next week, specifically Monday but the storm track will have shifted south by this point so it will be a tough ask. Smaller snow amounts from weaker weather disturbances are also possible during the middle of the week as the chilly temperatures remain in place.
A fully positive Arctic Oscillation, an increasingly energetic Pacific Jet and the demise of the ridge over Alaska all point toward a big temperature moderation by March 10. There remains some uncertainty in regards to the speed of this pattern switch and whether that will quickly throw us into spring skiing mode by the weekend of March 9th/10th or whether a "caboose" weather system can bring some snow and allow more wintry temperatures to persist until March 11. Both outcomes are still possible but the mid-March period continues to look very different than both 2017 and 18.
Sunday, February 24, 2019
Wintry weather dominates the upcoming final week of February and big storm offers varying possibilites for first weekend of March
Snow, sleet and a little wet weather prevailed as expected on the last Sunday of February. Mad River Glen and much of the rest of the northern Vermont high country can expect a turn back to snow Sunday evening, possibly enough for a quick inch or two. Snow showers and a few snow squalls are then likely from the pre-dawn hours Monday through the duration of the day. Though the chances for a big accumulation from the terrain enhanced snow appear best north of Stowe, 2-5 inches of the more fluffy but wind-driven stuff is still my guess for MRG. Temperatures on the mountain Monday will remain in the 20's, accompanied by very gusty westerly winds.
Flurries and snow showers will continue through Monday night and temperatures will plummet into the single numbers. Another inch or two of powder is possible by early Tuesday thanks to a more favorable northwest wind. Those winds will remain strong into Tuesday morning but begin to subside as this very cold day progresses. Clearing skies later Tuesday and light winds Tuesday night set the stage for a round of sub-zero temperatures early Wednesday, but some strong late February morning sunshine should allow readings to bounce back into the teens by Wednesday afternoon.
I have to throw some reverse shade at the American GFS model for sticking by the potential for snow Wednesday night while the two other major medium range simulations had all but eliminated that possibility for several days. Though not guaranteed by any stretch, the possibility for a Wednesday night into early Thursday snow has appeared better over the last 36 hours. Not enough moisture for anything epic, but a few inches is what we can hope for.
The cold weather which will be nice enough to dominate much of the upcoming weather week is expected to relent somewhat on March 1st just as the jet stream prepares to undergo a major amplification. There's a weather system involved as well which of course means the possibility of a major league weather system during the first weekend of March. The temperature moderation on Friday, March 1st could be associated with a period of overrunning snow but the possibility for big snow is dependent on the evolution of this potential weekend storm. Like many of its predecessors, there have been indications that the storm becomes too wrapped up across the Midwest and allow way too much warm air to get sucked into the mix for an all snow event. Unlike many of its predecessors, the negative PNA regime will mostly be gone and the amplifying jet stream supports the notion of a much more dynamic coastal low pressure center. If this storm can successfully transfer its energy to the coast in an efficient and timely manner, it would be reduce the chances for mixed precip and place Vermont in a terrific geographical location for a big dump. Right now this is right on the fence and could go in either direction.
Much like early this week, early next week (March 3-5) will feature cold, wintry weather with the possibility for terrain enhanced snow showers. Without a negative NAO, it is expected to be positive for the next two weeks, it is difficult for departing storms to get hung up for too long across the Maritimes and thus holds down the potential for extended periods of terrain enhanced snow. That said, colder temperatures are expected to prevail through much of the week in question and smaller weather disturbances will bring the possibility for snow at least once. Unfortunately, the pattern is not expected to hold much beyond the time of March 7th. The strong ridging across Alaska is expected to almost completely vanish and there isn't much blocking at high latitudes in the jet stream capable of holding the cold at mid-latitudes over North America beyond that aforementioned date. It would go against much of what has happened over the past few mid March periods but this upcoming mid March might actually feature our first round of more spring-like temperatures though its certainly early to tell for sure.
Flurries and snow showers will continue through Monday night and temperatures will plummet into the single numbers. Another inch or two of powder is possible by early Tuesday thanks to a more favorable northwest wind. Those winds will remain strong into Tuesday morning but begin to subside as this very cold day progresses. Clearing skies later Tuesday and light winds Tuesday night set the stage for a round of sub-zero temperatures early Wednesday, but some strong late February morning sunshine should allow readings to bounce back into the teens by Wednesday afternoon.
I have to throw some reverse shade at the American GFS model for sticking by the potential for snow Wednesday night while the two other major medium range simulations had all but eliminated that possibility for several days. Though not guaranteed by any stretch, the possibility for a Wednesday night into early Thursday snow has appeared better over the last 36 hours. Not enough moisture for anything epic, but a few inches is what we can hope for.
The cold weather which will be nice enough to dominate much of the upcoming weather week is expected to relent somewhat on March 1st just as the jet stream prepares to undergo a major amplification. There's a weather system involved as well which of course means the possibility of a major league weather system during the first weekend of March. The temperature moderation on Friday, March 1st could be associated with a period of overrunning snow but the possibility for big snow is dependent on the evolution of this potential weekend storm. Like many of its predecessors, there have been indications that the storm becomes too wrapped up across the Midwest and allow way too much warm air to get sucked into the mix for an all snow event. Unlike many of its predecessors, the negative PNA regime will mostly be gone and the amplifying jet stream supports the notion of a much more dynamic coastal low pressure center. If this storm can successfully transfer its energy to the coast in an efficient and timely manner, it would be reduce the chances for mixed precip and place Vermont in a terrific geographical location for a big dump. Right now this is right on the fence and could go in either direction.
Much like early this week, early next week (March 3-5) will feature cold, wintry weather with the possibility for terrain enhanced snow showers. Without a negative NAO, it is expected to be positive for the next two weeks, it is difficult for departing storms to get hung up for too long across the Maritimes and thus holds down the potential for extended periods of terrain enhanced snow. That said, colder temperatures are expected to prevail through much of the week in question and smaller weather disturbances will bring the possibility for snow at least once. Unfortunately, the pattern is not expected to hold much beyond the time of March 7th. The strong ridging across Alaska is expected to almost completely vanish and there isn't much blocking at high latitudes in the jet stream capable of holding the cold at mid-latitudes over North America beyond that aforementioned date. It would go against much of what has happened over the past few mid March periods but this upcoming mid March might actually feature our first round of more spring-like temperatures though its certainly early to tell for sure.
Friday, February 22, 2019
Sunday's thaw looks pretty minimal but still a little wet while next week appears colder but also drier
Conditions across the high country have been a bit changeable over the last few days and this will be the story for the weekend as well. Bits and pieces of the intense area of cold out west have effectively won control of Vermont at times but at other times given way to the occasional mild intrusion. Given the power of this especially negative PNA regime, the snow across the northern Vermont high country as held up pretty well. I expect that it will also hold up ok on Sunday in spite of the less than ideal weather situation.
The first half of the weekend is the tranquil half. Some sunshine, good visibility and limited wind will be the featured conditions and temperatures should get pretty close to the freezing mark during the afternoon and may exceed it for a few hours at at the base. Clouds are expected to overspread the region late Saturday evening and the precipitation from our advancing storm will arrive within a few hours of dawn Sunday. Meteorologically speaking, the Sunday weather system is one of the strongest to impact Vermont this month but the storm will be somewhat of spent force before reaching the east coast with the worst impacts being felt across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. The main area of low pressure is again going to take a god-awful path into Ontario and central Quebec which can open the door for a snow-eating torch across much of New England. It appears pretty apparent, based on the latest data, that a new area of low pressure, expected to form late Sunday along the New England coast, will effectively tie off the northward advancement of mild air. The result will thus be a period of mainly sleet early Sunday followed by freezing rain and then a short period of cold rain. No big melt off but no big powder either.
The period between Sunday night and Monday night still appears to be a good one for terrain enhanced snow showers as cold air slowly builds back into the region. For winter standards, it appears to be a particularly deep area of potential instability and well-aligned winds. This doesn't guarantee much in these type of events and my experience suggests that the best snow will be from Stowe northward given the wind direction. Still, continuous snow showers, some of which could contain some briefly heavy snow should be able to bring a few inches of recovery powder back to Mad River Glen by Tuesday morning. Right now I would be willing to call it 3-6 but again, the best chance for that "6" will be farther north.
Escape from the negative PNA not only appears on track toward the end of the month but it appears ahead of schedule. Temperatures appear colder in the Tuesday to first weekend of March time frame and will likely stay below the freezing mark throughout that time frame. The only issue with that is the drier outlook associated with that change. The potential midweek storm next week appears farther south on most of the simulations though the possibility for a Wednesday/Thursday snowfall is not entirely eliminated. What does look a bit more promising is the potential for some east coast action around the time frame of March 1st and 2nd (a Friday and a Saturday). The potential east coast storm would involve the merging of a clipper system and some southern energy. I wouldn't call a big event particularly likely right now but that might be our best hope over the next 10 days.
The colder regime, fueled by the Alaskan ridge is expected to win the day through around March 6-7 and then there are hints of another pattern realignment and some milder temperatures by around March 10th.
The first half of the weekend is the tranquil half. Some sunshine, good visibility and limited wind will be the featured conditions and temperatures should get pretty close to the freezing mark during the afternoon and may exceed it for a few hours at at the base. Clouds are expected to overspread the region late Saturday evening and the precipitation from our advancing storm will arrive within a few hours of dawn Sunday. Meteorologically speaking, the Sunday weather system is one of the strongest to impact Vermont this month but the storm will be somewhat of spent force before reaching the east coast with the worst impacts being felt across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. The main area of low pressure is again going to take a god-awful path into Ontario and central Quebec which can open the door for a snow-eating torch across much of New England. It appears pretty apparent, based on the latest data, that a new area of low pressure, expected to form late Sunday along the New England coast, will effectively tie off the northward advancement of mild air. The result will thus be a period of mainly sleet early Sunday followed by freezing rain and then a short period of cold rain. No big melt off but no big powder either.
The period between Sunday night and Monday night still appears to be a good one for terrain enhanced snow showers as cold air slowly builds back into the region. For winter standards, it appears to be a particularly deep area of potential instability and well-aligned winds. This doesn't guarantee much in these type of events and my experience suggests that the best snow will be from Stowe northward given the wind direction. Still, continuous snow showers, some of which could contain some briefly heavy snow should be able to bring a few inches of recovery powder back to Mad River Glen by Tuesday morning. Right now I would be willing to call it 3-6 but again, the best chance for that "6" will be farther north.
Escape from the negative PNA not only appears on track toward the end of the month but it appears ahead of schedule. Temperatures appear colder in the Tuesday to first weekend of March time frame and will likely stay below the freezing mark throughout that time frame. The only issue with that is the drier outlook associated with that change. The potential midweek storm next week appears farther south on most of the simulations though the possibility for a Wednesday/Thursday snowfall is not entirely eliminated. What does look a bit more promising is the potential for some east coast action around the time frame of March 1st and 2nd (a Friday and a Saturday). The potential east coast storm would involve the merging of a clipper system and some southern energy. I wouldn't call a big event particularly likely right now but that might be our best hope over the next 10 days.
The colder regime, fueled by the Alaskan ridge is expected to win the day through around March 6-7 and then there are hints of another pattern realignment and some milder temperatures by around March 10th.
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
4-plus inches of snow early Thursday and another round of internet hypecasting gone bad
Can't say I am especially impressed with how our Wednesday Night/Thursday snow event is shaping up. Simply put, the area of moisture is very disorganized and the coastal low pressure center appears to be taking shape only very slowly. That said, no reason to think we can't score a quick 4 inches beginning around 10 pm tonight. If we are lucky, maybe we can begin Thursday with 6 or 7 inches of fresh powder. Though I don't think temperatures will get excessively warm on the mountain Thursday, it will be mild enough (35 degrees) for snow conditions to become wetter as the day progresses. The first several hours Thursday will be powdery so be like a local and ski it early if you can.
After spending a few hours above the freezing mark Thursday at lower elevations, temperatures will fall back into the 20's and there appears to be just enough moisture for a some terrain enhanced snow showers. Friday will then feature healthy amounts of late-February sunshine and afternoon temperatures in the 30's.
From a meteorological perspective, the upcoming weekend weather system is considerably more formidable and its arrival, quite unfortunately, coincides with the jet stream ridge in the southeast U.S. reaching peak strength. Saturday will begin the day sunny with awesome visibility and very little wind but clouds should overspread the region later in the day as temperatures inch their way above the freezing mark yet again. I won't lie, this does not appear to be a particularly productive event with precipitation beginning as a mixed bag of sleet and snow and then going to a period of freezing rain during the overnight hours Saturday night. All is not lost however, the window of time for any serious melting still appears very tight with this storm since the cold wedge of air will make every attempt to maintain its footing. Some plain rain is possible during the day Sunday but I expect temperatures to remain in the 30's. Better still are some storm induced instability which should move over the region Sunday night into Monday allowing conditions to align for a period of terrain enhanced snow. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the high country gets some substantial "recovery powder" on the backside of this storm but the forecast period remains a few days away so expectations could change.
That third system that was discussed a few days ago on the blog became the focal point for a weather geek twitter bonanza yesterday with a run of the European model indicating a full blown winter nor'easter (and a big one also). I would thus like to take another moment, add in a double shot of sarcasm, and thank all the attention-seeking hypecasters who went out of their way to tweet about one run of one model, sensationalize and effectively provide multiple kisses of death to "what could've been" !!! Yeah I am a little superstitious but also becoming more grumpy with age and taking less kindly to many weather personalities, so desperate to make a name for themselves, that they feel the need to provide the public with misleading information. Many of those same people will brush it off as a jest when the data inevitably changes. Unfortunately however, this is the social media world we live in where everyone and everything is really out to just compete for your attention.
We still do have a chance for snow during the middle or later part of next week (or both). There are no indications today of a big storm but there have been consistent indications of possible snow and continued support for a colder more productive pattern beginning around the turn of the month. Similar to the last update, evidence of split flow in early March consisting of a jet stream ridge over Alaska and activity in the jet stream underneath that ridge, is often a terrific indicator of for both ocld and stormy east coast weather. Even if the snow potential for next week is vaporized by the jinxy cat hypecasters, there should be more chances in early March. And yes, I poke fun affectionately speaking because I can and I like to avoid the monotony. Enjoy our dose of snow !
After spending a few hours above the freezing mark Thursday at lower elevations, temperatures will fall back into the 20's and there appears to be just enough moisture for a some terrain enhanced snow showers. Friday will then feature healthy amounts of late-February sunshine and afternoon temperatures in the 30's.
From a meteorological perspective, the upcoming weekend weather system is considerably more formidable and its arrival, quite unfortunately, coincides with the jet stream ridge in the southeast U.S. reaching peak strength. Saturday will begin the day sunny with awesome visibility and very little wind but clouds should overspread the region later in the day as temperatures inch their way above the freezing mark yet again. I won't lie, this does not appear to be a particularly productive event with precipitation beginning as a mixed bag of sleet and snow and then going to a period of freezing rain during the overnight hours Saturday night. All is not lost however, the window of time for any serious melting still appears very tight with this storm since the cold wedge of air will make every attempt to maintain its footing. Some plain rain is possible during the day Sunday but I expect temperatures to remain in the 30's. Better still are some storm induced instability which should move over the region Sunday night into Monday allowing conditions to align for a period of terrain enhanced snow. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the high country gets some substantial "recovery powder" on the backside of this storm but the forecast period remains a few days away so expectations could change.
That third system that was discussed a few days ago on the blog became the focal point for a weather geek twitter bonanza yesterday with a run of the European model indicating a full blown winter nor'easter (and a big one also). I would thus like to take another moment, add in a double shot of sarcasm, and thank all the attention-seeking hypecasters who went out of their way to tweet about one run of one model, sensationalize and effectively provide multiple kisses of death to "what could've been" !!! Yeah I am a little superstitious but also becoming more grumpy with age and taking less kindly to many weather personalities, so desperate to make a name for themselves, that they feel the need to provide the public with misleading information. Many of those same people will brush it off as a jest when the data inevitably changes. Unfortunately however, this is the social media world we live in where everyone and everything is really out to just compete for your attention.
We still do have a chance for snow during the middle or later part of next week (or both). There are no indications today of a big storm but there have been consistent indications of possible snow and continued support for a colder more productive pattern beginning around the turn of the month. Similar to the last update, evidence of split flow in early March consisting of a jet stream ridge over Alaska and activity in the jet stream underneath that ridge, is often a terrific indicator of for both ocld and stormy east coast weather. Even if the snow potential for next week is vaporized by the jinxy cat hypecasters, there should be more chances in early March. And yes, I poke fun affectionately speaking because I can and I like to avoid the monotony. Enjoy our dose of snow !
Monday, February 18, 2019
February ends with a tail of 3 inland runners and March will begin with plenty of potential
The final 10 days of February will be a tail of 3 inland runners. It doesn't sound like a particularly romantic story but the details don't suggest anything too tragic either. Interior New England will be on the outer perimeter of a large ridge in the jet stream centered near the Carolina coast. Very mild air will make repeated attempts at fully enveloping the region but for the most part, those attempts will get rebuffed and much of the high country can expect just limited amounts of thawing until the end of the month where a more wintry pattern is still expected to emerge.
In the short term, a chilly airmass will send temperatures below zero in many spots Tuesday morning and keep readings in the teens during the day in spite of a healthy dosing of sunshine. More sunshine early Wednesday should help moderate conditions just a touch before clouds overspread Vermont before the end of the day. The first of the three aforementioned weather systems will then bring precipitation to Mad River Glen Wednesday night and this precipitation is expected to mostly fall as snow. This is a familiar story, consisting of a low pressure center over southeastern Canada while another low pressure center tries to take shape near the Jersey coastline. This weather situation will never develop into anything particularly noteworthy but we should avoid the ice and the above freezing temperatures and have 3-6 inches of snow to play in on Thursday. The one issue might be temperatures Thursday which are expected to climb above freezing for a time during the afternoon over the low elevations.
The period starting this Thursday afternoon and ending around Monday February 25 continues to look like the mildest of the period but not excessively so. Both Friday and Saturday appear generally dry with day time temperatures at or just above the freezing mark while overnight readings fall into the teens and 20's. A stronger and 2nd "inland runner" will then impact the region beginning either Saturday night or Sunday. Though there is minimal cold air support, the outcome remains uncertain and a snow-eating thaw actually looks unlikely. Some snow is possible but the system appears to be a predominantly wintry mix/little bit of rain situation. Stay tuned with this storm since my feeling is a subsequent trend will ultimately take the Sunday weather situation one way or another.
Mild weather will persist into Monday but this should consist of temperatures in the high 30's or low 40's as opposed to something worse. The third of 3 of the potential inland runners appears to have an impact date of Tuesday or Wednesday (Feb 26-27). Though the track of this storm is hardly ideal, it appears better than its predecessor and thus the chances for wintry precipitation and snow are better.
Harder evidence has emerged suggesting a much more wintry pattern beginning around February 28 and continuing well into early March. The formation of a large ridge across Alaska in the last few days of the month is the primary culprit and this feature will largely eliminate the negative impacts of the negative PNA regime that dominated the pattern for much of February. Better yet are the indications of some continued activity in the jet stream underneath that ridge in Alaska. This means a loose Pacific jet capable of allowing for the presence of arctic air but also the presence of storminess. This is why the term "split flow" should always be thought of with glowing adjectives. Given that setup, the ingredients will be present for a big east coast snow producer. Can we make it a trifecta March epicness (2017, 18 & 19) ? Hopefully yes, and in the case of 2019, we will be entering March with a substantially deeper base.
In the short term, a chilly airmass will send temperatures below zero in many spots Tuesday morning and keep readings in the teens during the day in spite of a healthy dosing of sunshine. More sunshine early Wednesday should help moderate conditions just a touch before clouds overspread Vermont before the end of the day. The first of the three aforementioned weather systems will then bring precipitation to Mad River Glen Wednesday night and this precipitation is expected to mostly fall as snow. This is a familiar story, consisting of a low pressure center over southeastern Canada while another low pressure center tries to take shape near the Jersey coastline. This weather situation will never develop into anything particularly noteworthy but we should avoid the ice and the above freezing temperatures and have 3-6 inches of snow to play in on Thursday. The one issue might be temperatures Thursday which are expected to climb above freezing for a time during the afternoon over the low elevations.
The period starting this Thursday afternoon and ending around Monday February 25 continues to look like the mildest of the period but not excessively so. Both Friday and Saturday appear generally dry with day time temperatures at or just above the freezing mark while overnight readings fall into the teens and 20's. A stronger and 2nd "inland runner" will then impact the region beginning either Saturday night or Sunday. Though there is minimal cold air support, the outcome remains uncertain and a snow-eating thaw actually looks unlikely. Some snow is possible but the system appears to be a predominantly wintry mix/little bit of rain situation. Stay tuned with this storm since my feeling is a subsequent trend will ultimately take the Sunday weather situation one way or another.
Mild weather will persist into Monday but this should consist of temperatures in the high 30's or low 40's as opposed to something worse. The third of 3 of the potential inland runners appears to have an impact date of Tuesday or Wednesday (Feb 26-27). Though the track of this storm is hardly ideal, it appears better than its predecessor and thus the chances for wintry precipitation and snow are better.
Harder evidence has emerged suggesting a much more wintry pattern beginning around February 28 and continuing well into early March. The formation of a large ridge across Alaska in the last few days of the month is the primary culprit and this feature will largely eliminate the negative impacts of the negative PNA regime that dominated the pattern for much of February. Better yet are the indications of some continued activity in the jet stream underneath that ridge in Alaska. This means a loose Pacific jet capable of allowing for the presence of arctic air but also the presence of storminess. This is why the term "split flow" should always be thought of with glowing adjectives. Given that setup, the ingredients will be present for a big east coast snow producer. Can we make it a trifecta March epicness (2017, 18 & 19) ? Hopefully yes, and in the case of 2019, we will be entering March with a substantially deeper base.
Saturday, February 16, 2019
A cold and wintry upcoming 5 days, a better pattern emerging around the turn of the month and some mild weather in between
We managed to avoid the rain Friday, score a little bit of snow Friday night before the continuous flurries and snow showers on Saturday. Colder temperatures are also building across interior New England and are expected to prevail through much of the upcoming holiday week in spite of a less than ideal jet stream configuration. Worth taking a moment and raising a glass to commemorate that and Sunday might be a good day to do it, with excellent visibility some blue sky, relatively calm winds and crisp winter-like temperatures near 20-degrees.
I'd downplayed the notion of snow for Monday but there had been indications of that possibility over the past few days (I admit, I remained a cynic). As of midday Saturday, it looks as if the Monday snow should materialize. We should expect just a limited dose but the light snow should develop Sunday night and continue for several hours into early Monday. Its not an especially strong weather system and most of the moisture is expected to remain to our south, but 1 to as much as 4 inches is the most likely outcome when the snow tapers off Monday afternoon. If the storm in question continues its northward trend, another, albeit small, upgrade will be necessary.
Dry and cold weather prevails for Tuesday and much of Wednesday both of which should feature some sunshine and only Tuesday should see much in the way of wind. The more noteworthy weather system for the upcoming week remains on target for Wednesday night into Thursday. That said, it appears to be a very garden variety event with precipitation stemming from a strong area of warm advection induced forcing associated with a building ridge in the jet stream centered near the Carolina coastline. It will get plenty warm near the center of that aforementioned ridge but the balmy temperatures won't dent Vermont until the weekend and a few inches of snow and a reduced risk for ice is my expectation from the weather system in question.
Temperatures are expected to remain below the freezing mark through Friday but the mild air associated with the large ridge in the jet stream will make a second and bigger push toward Vermont by the weekend of Feb 23/24. The details remain cloudy but this next big surge of milder air will ultimately be more successful and scouring any lingering cold. For now, the mild intrusion appears to be a roughly 2-day event with temperatures closer to 40 as opposed to 50 or higher.
There are stronger indications over the past two days that the prevailing negative PNA pattern will either completely break down or evolve materially as the month of February nears a close. It has been an incredible run of cold across the west that has allowed temperatures to average almost 30-degrees below normal in parts of Montana for the first 15 days of the month. With the pattern continuing another week, many of those areas have a chance of posting one of, if not the coldest month of February ever recorded. As this negative PNA dominated pattern finally starts to change or evolve, it will involve the trough in the jet stream across the west getting a big eastward push from a building ridge over Alaska. The uncertainty relates to the speed and ultimate strength of this potential Alaskan jet stream feature, but it has the potential to have a big say on our weather toward the end of February into the beginning of March. Can't say much as to the specifics as of yet except to say that Monday February 25th is more likely to remain on the milder side with colder temperatures more likely as the week progresses. There are also indications of a weather system around the time of February 25th, one that could certainly require a quicker arrival of colder air to become a winter weather producer.
I'd downplayed the notion of snow for Monday but there had been indications of that possibility over the past few days (I admit, I remained a cynic). As of midday Saturday, it looks as if the Monday snow should materialize. We should expect just a limited dose but the light snow should develop Sunday night and continue for several hours into early Monday. Its not an especially strong weather system and most of the moisture is expected to remain to our south, but 1 to as much as 4 inches is the most likely outcome when the snow tapers off Monday afternoon. If the storm in question continues its northward trend, another, albeit small, upgrade will be necessary.
Dry and cold weather prevails for Tuesday and much of Wednesday both of which should feature some sunshine and only Tuesday should see much in the way of wind. The more noteworthy weather system for the upcoming week remains on target for Wednesday night into Thursday. That said, it appears to be a very garden variety event with precipitation stemming from a strong area of warm advection induced forcing associated with a building ridge in the jet stream centered near the Carolina coastline. It will get plenty warm near the center of that aforementioned ridge but the balmy temperatures won't dent Vermont until the weekend and a few inches of snow and a reduced risk for ice is my expectation from the weather system in question.
Temperatures are expected to remain below the freezing mark through Friday but the mild air associated with the large ridge in the jet stream will make a second and bigger push toward Vermont by the weekend of Feb 23/24. The details remain cloudy but this next big surge of milder air will ultimately be more successful and scouring any lingering cold. For now, the mild intrusion appears to be a roughly 2-day event with temperatures closer to 40 as opposed to 50 or higher.
There are stronger indications over the past two days that the prevailing negative PNA pattern will either completely break down or evolve materially as the month of February nears a close. It has been an incredible run of cold across the west that has allowed temperatures to average almost 30-degrees below normal in parts of Montana for the first 15 days of the month. With the pattern continuing another week, many of those areas have a chance of posting one of, if not the coldest month of February ever recorded. As this negative PNA dominated pattern finally starts to change or evolve, it will involve the trough in the jet stream across the west getting a big eastward push from a building ridge over Alaska. The uncertainty relates to the speed and ultimate strength of this potential Alaskan jet stream feature, but it has the potential to have a big say on our weather toward the end of February into the beginning of March. Can't say much as to the specifics as of yet except to say that Monday February 25th is more likely to remain on the milder side with colder temperatures more likely as the week progresses. There are also indications of a weather system around the time of February 25th, one that could certainly require a quicker arrival of colder air to become a winter weather producer.
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
The weather report for Maui and why I think that matters
We got a nice dose of snow and a little sleet over the last two days but I'll start this post by talking about snow in a more exotic location and why I think the cause of that snow has played such a significant (in my opinion) role in dictating the larger scale pattern across North America this month. I am sure some have seen this as a footnote in the news headlines recently but in case you didn't, the island of Maui in Hawaii received a historic snow and there was an accumulation recorded at a historically low elevation.
Maui Snowfall
Snow does fall routinely in Hawaii, mainly on the Big Island where the 14,000 foot Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa volcanic mountains are located, but Maui rarely sees snow since its highest elevations are lower. It takes a rather special set of circumstances for the jet stream to support such an outcome, but it happened because of an unusually strong area of storminess that undercut a broad area of Mid-Latitude ridging in the jet stream over the Pacific in recent days. Why does any of this matter ? Well, the weather in the Pacific certainly matters and the storminess that occurred at those very low latitudes caused the MJO to nearly go off the predictive map. The MJO which is used to explain the phases of convective activity in the low-latitude Pacific, has become popular in recent years for predicting winter weather over North America. The various phases can certainly greatly impact the strength of the mid-latitude Pacific jet stream. Unfortunately the MJO is like a knuckle-ball pitcher in baseball. Looks like you can hit monster home runs forecasting the weather a few weeks out using the MJO but it hardly ever works. MJO phases are often much harder to predict than they appear and then when you can accurately predict it, the outcome in North America is entirely different. That's what happened thanks largely to the storminess in Hawaii. The Pacific took on a look, based on some of the measurable charts, as if it would support widespread cold weather across lower North America but the storminess at Hawaii's latitude was so unusual that the pattern ended up just supporting cold across western North America and we thus have a jet stream regime that is almost locked in this "negative-PNA", "cold west/warm east" structure.
Wow that was way too long but nonetheless important. Thanks for bearing with me.
Our recent snow has allowed us to move somewhat out of those "frozen hellscape" conditions but the pattern which has dominated for February is going to continue through most of the rest of the month and send some challenging weather situations in our direction. That said, we are not in the worst of shape. The good news regarding the weekend weather still holds. After somewhat seasonable Thursday, milder temperatures will arrive with a northeastward moving weather system Friday. This storm will take a horrendous track into Quebec but is moving quickly enough, and isn't strong enough to bring enough mild weather to create problems on the mountain. Instead we will have clouds and a period of somewhat wetter snowfall on the mountain beginning in the mid-morning hours Friday with mixed rain and snow in valley locations. This isn't a dream situation but it's a lot better than some of the alternatives advertised on some of the forecast simulations 5 days ago. Above 2000 feet, I think its 3-6 inches of snow is the most likely outcome before drier and colder air envelops us later Friday evening.
The holiday weekend is looking very quiet now. Some flurries are possible Saturday but no significant snowfall is expected. Temperatures will be generally seasonable with readings in the single digits during the early AM and 20's during the afternoons. There are two systems in the ensuing holiday week that we will be watching. The smaller, first system would impact the east coast Monday and my guess is that precipitation and snowfall remains to our south. The second system in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame of next week has a better shot of bringing the action our way. Now by later next week, the ridge in the jet stream across the southeast is expected to once again become very formidable. The cause of this can be traced back to that ridiculous tangent I took you all down to open the blog post. We are in a position to fend off this push of very mild air but it's no certainty we can keep precipitation from changing to something other than snow. In addition, it appears likely that we will have to contend with a round of above-freezing temperatures sometime around the last weekend of February.
Beyond that, some disagreement has emerged in the forecast data. There are hints that the negative PNA regime that has dogged us this month, but allowed it to just dump on the west, will break down and allow for a period of colder weather around the turn of the month. Other data suggests the pattern might linger into early March. Overall it isn't terrible since there is enough arctic cold across North America collectively to keep interior New England in the game, but to procure another true epic period of snowfall, the strong negative PNA regime will need to break down somewhat.
Maui Snowfall
Snow does fall routinely in Hawaii, mainly on the Big Island where the 14,000 foot Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa volcanic mountains are located, but Maui rarely sees snow since its highest elevations are lower. It takes a rather special set of circumstances for the jet stream to support such an outcome, but it happened because of an unusually strong area of storminess that undercut a broad area of Mid-Latitude ridging in the jet stream over the Pacific in recent days. Why does any of this matter ? Well, the weather in the Pacific certainly matters and the storminess that occurred at those very low latitudes caused the MJO to nearly go off the predictive map. The MJO which is used to explain the phases of convective activity in the low-latitude Pacific, has become popular in recent years for predicting winter weather over North America. The various phases can certainly greatly impact the strength of the mid-latitude Pacific jet stream. Unfortunately the MJO is like a knuckle-ball pitcher in baseball. Looks like you can hit monster home runs forecasting the weather a few weeks out using the MJO but it hardly ever works. MJO phases are often much harder to predict than they appear and then when you can accurately predict it, the outcome in North America is entirely different. That's what happened thanks largely to the storminess in Hawaii. The Pacific took on a look, based on some of the measurable charts, as if it would support widespread cold weather across lower North America but the storminess at Hawaii's latitude was so unusual that the pattern ended up just supporting cold across western North America and we thus have a jet stream regime that is almost locked in this "negative-PNA", "cold west/warm east" structure.
Wow that was way too long but nonetheless important. Thanks for bearing with me.
Our recent snow has allowed us to move somewhat out of those "frozen hellscape" conditions but the pattern which has dominated for February is going to continue through most of the rest of the month and send some challenging weather situations in our direction. That said, we are not in the worst of shape. The good news regarding the weekend weather still holds. After somewhat seasonable Thursday, milder temperatures will arrive with a northeastward moving weather system Friday. This storm will take a horrendous track into Quebec but is moving quickly enough, and isn't strong enough to bring enough mild weather to create problems on the mountain. Instead we will have clouds and a period of somewhat wetter snowfall on the mountain beginning in the mid-morning hours Friday with mixed rain and snow in valley locations. This isn't a dream situation but it's a lot better than some of the alternatives advertised on some of the forecast simulations 5 days ago. Above 2000 feet, I think its 3-6 inches of snow is the most likely outcome before drier and colder air envelops us later Friday evening.
The holiday weekend is looking very quiet now. Some flurries are possible Saturday but no significant snowfall is expected. Temperatures will be generally seasonable with readings in the single digits during the early AM and 20's during the afternoons. There are two systems in the ensuing holiday week that we will be watching. The smaller, first system would impact the east coast Monday and my guess is that precipitation and snowfall remains to our south. The second system in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame of next week has a better shot of bringing the action our way. Now by later next week, the ridge in the jet stream across the southeast is expected to once again become very formidable. The cause of this can be traced back to that ridiculous tangent I took you all down to open the blog post. We are in a position to fend off this push of very mild air but it's no certainty we can keep precipitation from changing to something other than snow. In addition, it appears likely that we will have to contend with a round of above-freezing temperatures sometime around the last weekend of February.
Beyond that, some disagreement has emerged in the forecast data. There are hints that the negative PNA regime that has dogged us this month, but allowed it to just dump on the west, will break down and allow for a period of colder weather around the turn of the month. Other data suggests the pattern might linger into early March. Overall it isn't terrible since there is enough arctic cold across North America collectively to keep interior New England in the game, but to procure another true epic period of snowfall, the strong negative PNA regime will need to break down somewhat.
Monday, February 11, 2019
8-14 inches of snow (and just a bit of sleet) Tues/Wed and lessening chances of holiday weekend rain
Our Tuesday/Wednesday winter storm remains on target and the trends that were discussed in the last update continue to hold up pretty well 2 days later. This appears to be a stronger more robust system and the coastal low pressure center which is expected to take shape Tuesday evening appears more potent on all of the forecast simulations I've seen on Monday. This is certainly something that was needed for a decent snowfall across northern Vermont. The one unfortunate aspect of all this is an intrusion of warm air aloft, which appears capable of penetrating the lower 2/3 of the state including the Mad River Valley in the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday. This layer of above freezing air is quite thick over the southern New England which could set the stage for some serious icing there. For our surroundings, the layer of warmth is likely just thick enough to turn precipitation to some sleet for a short time but we should NOT see any ice. Overall, this is shaping up to be a decent event which will feature several skiable inches of dense powder mixed with just a little sleet by first tracks time Wednesday.
The snow should commence at MRG around the closing of a cold but dry ski day Tuesday. Temperatures will start Tuesday well below zero and readings will warm only to about 20 during the day. The snow will intensify very quickly and a few hours of decent snowfall rates will put down a quick 6-8 inches of snow by about midnight or so. The time frame between midnight and 6 am Wednesday is the period where sleet is most likely were it to occur. It's unlikely to sleet during that entire period but enough I think that total accumulations are under a foot by morning Wednesday. Precipitation during the day on Wednesday will change back to snow and occasional snow showers is likely to bring a small additional accumulation to the high country. My guess on a storm total is about 8-14 inches by Wednesday evening and yet again, northern Vermont is one of the better locations in a eastern US geographical sense. We also have some "wind" concerns to discuss. It's not so much the speed but the direction. A mostly easterly wind has been known to cause problems and it will be such for Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning. The low pressure "axis" is expected to cross us in the mid-morning hours on Wednesday and this will allow winds to turn to a more westerly direction by noon or so. The changing wind direction will also allow temperatures to moderate, particularly in low lying areas. On the mountain, readings on Wednesday will climb from near 20 to the high 20's but temperatures might creep above freezing down along the Mad River.
Snow showers will linger into Wednesday night and flurries could persist through part of Thursday but with only light additional accumulations. Temperatures will finish the week on the milder side of average with readings climbing to about 30 Thursday and then creeping above the freezing mark by Friday.
The best news I have relates to the holiday weekend and the amplifying trend away from rain. Yes, there is another in the train of western storms exiting the Rocky Mountains on this upcoming Thursday but there are two very important updates. 1) The storm appears more likely to outrace a push of milder temperatures, bring its precipitation to New England Friday and be gone by the weekend. 2) The storm will not track into central Quebec and precipitation is thus most likely to be predominantly snow for a time on Friday before exiting the region Friday night. No, the storm doesn't look nearly as strong but trading a strong rainy system for a weaker, snowier one (still capable of producing a few inches) is an exchange we would surely make. On top of that, the weekend as a whole looks more seasonable albeit drier after whatever snowfall we receive on Friday. I would like to etch this forecast in some stone but would prefer to see one more round of model data before doing so.
Beyond the weekend, the forecast picture continues to make prognosticators dizzy. Cold air is likely to focus its attention on the western high plains but at the same time, the ridge in the jet stream is also expected to strengthen its grip on the southeastern United States. This is the continued story of a feisty Pacific fighting against small amounts of high latitude blocking in the jet stream. All of this should put Vermont in the battle zone so to speak and on the receiving end of one major weather system sometime in the middle of the week. I can't promise all snow but I can almost promise something. Meanwhile the inter mountain regions of the west will continue to experience the wrath of one of the coldest months in a number of years .
The snow should commence at MRG around the closing of a cold but dry ski day Tuesday. Temperatures will start Tuesday well below zero and readings will warm only to about 20 during the day. The snow will intensify very quickly and a few hours of decent snowfall rates will put down a quick 6-8 inches of snow by about midnight or so. The time frame between midnight and 6 am Wednesday is the period where sleet is most likely were it to occur. It's unlikely to sleet during that entire period but enough I think that total accumulations are under a foot by morning Wednesday. Precipitation during the day on Wednesday will change back to snow and occasional snow showers is likely to bring a small additional accumulation to the high country. My guess on a storm total is about 8-14 inches by Wednesday evening and yet again, northern Vermont is one of the better locations in a eastern US geographical sense. We also have some "wind" concerns to discuss. It's not so much the speed but the direction. A mostly easterly wind has been known to cause problems and it will be such for Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning. The low pressure "axis" is expected to cross us in the mid-morning hours on Wednesday and this will allow winds to turn to a more westerly direction by noon or so. The changing wind direction will also allow temperatures to moderate, particularly in low lying areas. On the mountain, readings on Wednesday will climb from near 20 to the high 20's but temperatures might creep above freezing down along the Mad River.
Snow showers will linger into Wednesday night and flurries could persist through part of Thursday but with only light additional accumulations. Temperatures will finish the week on the milder side of average with readings climbing to about 30 Thursday and then creeping above the freezing mark by Friday.
The best news I have relates to the holiday weekend and the amplifying trend away from rain. Yes, there is another in the train of western storms exiting the Rocky Mountains on this upcoming Thursday but there are two very important updates. 1) The storm appears more likely to outrace a push of milder temperatures, bring its precipitation to New England Friday and be gone by the weekend. 2) The storm will not track into central Quebec and precipitation is thus most likely to be predominantly snow for a time on Friday before exiting the region Friday night. No, the storm doesn't look nearly as strong but trading a strong rainy system for a weaker, snowier one (still capable of producing a few inches) is an exchange we would surely make. On top of that, the weekend as a whole looks more seasonable albeit drier after whatever snowfall we receive on Friday. I would like to etch this forecast in some stone but would prefer to see one more round of model data before doing so.
Beyond the weekend, the forecast picture continues to make prognosticators dizzy. Cold air is likely to focus its attention on the western high plains but at the same time, the ridge in the jet stream is also expected to strengthen its grip on the southeastern United States. This is the continued story of a feisty Pacific fighting against small amounts of high latitude blocking in the jet stream. All of this should put Vermont in the battle zone so to speak and on the receiving end of one major weather system sometime in the middle of the week. I can't promise all snow but I can almost promise something. Meanwhile the inter mountain regions of the west will continue to experience the wrath of one of the coldest months in a number of years .
Saturday, February 9, 2019
It's pretty firm out there, but modest amounts of new snow is starting to enter the more immediate horizon
We've concluded a rough first week of February and have survived that week with good coverage. As loyal skiers of MRG can certainly attest, we've certainly come out of thaw/rain events in worse shape. Looking forward, we certainly have some things going for us and some relief on the immediate horizon but the PNA (Pacific - North America Oscillation) has been and will continue to be problematic for a time. Simplistically speaking, the PNA is a measure of the pattern across western North America. When the index is negative, the western United States is cold, unsettled and much of the ski areas out that way are living large. A positive index, such as the one we enjoyed throughout much of February 2015, focuses the warm and dry weather out west while persistent cold is envelops eastern North America.
All that being established, colder weather has returned to Vermont and really hardened snow conditions. The chill along plenty of sunshine is expected to prevail not only for the duration of the weekend, but into Monday as high pressure is expected to remain in control across much of northern New England even as weak area of overrunning precipitation impact areas farther south. Southern Vermont could see more cloudiness and a period of very light snow Sunday night but even down there, it won't amount to much.
If one is to take a brief glance at the main NWS home page , the coverage of winter weather related advisories and warnings out west would be the first thing to jump out at you. The storm responsible for most of that is still headed in our direction for the middle of the week. If there has been a trend in some of the expectations over the past 48 hours, it suggests a stronger, juicier but also warmer system for northern Vermont. Precipitation would arrive late in the day Tuesday and it does appear that a period of heavier snow is possible for a time Tuesday evening into early Tuesday night. This snow hound continues to hope that the coastal low pressure that is expected to form Tuesday evening off the Jersey coast, will intensify more explosively and focus much of the snowfall over interior New England for an extended period of time. Though this remains a possibility it is not the current indication and thus a more modest period of snowfall is indicated. Snowfall totals by Wednesday morning would be in the 5-10 inch range and temperatures could approach the 30-degree mark at the base while remaining in the 20's a bit higher. The primary, occluded and initial area of low pressure will be up over the St Lawrence Valley and is likely to help continue spinning its leftover moisture in our direction. If I had to guess, much of the snow will come from that initial thump Tuesday evening and night followed by a several hour break followed by some persistent light snow during the day Wednesday and an additional 2-4 inches of snow. This would yield a storm total of about 7-14.
When I spoke of the PNA in the first paragraph and its apparent plan to throw a big "negative" bash that will continue for the next two weeks, my concern involves the impact that will have on the holiday weekend for us . A negative PNA isn't entirely bad for Vermont and with the help of a few other variables, the pattern can still find a way to productive. This "-PNA" is particularly strong however and capable of overwhelming about everything else. We certainly will get a bit more help on the storm track Tuesday/Wednesday but appear more likely to get less help on the holiday weekend. This has the potential to be another strong weather system and an interesting one but unfortunately, not an especially cold one. There are still several different possible scenarios that remain in play but the spectrum of possibilities is certainly slanted toward at least some wet weather and a period of above freezing temperatures in the Saturday/Sunday time frame (Feb 16-17).
There is some good news however. The ensuing holiday week looks better as time moves on thanks largely to a strengthening area of blocking in the jet stream over Greenland. Any subsequent storm, beyond February 18th, is more likely to be a snowy one and more productive for us skiers.
All that being established, colder weather has returned to Vermont and really hardened snow conditions. The chill along plenty of sunshine is expected to prevail not only for the duration of the weekend, but into Monday as high pressure is expected to remain in control across much of northern New England even as weak area of overrunning precipitation impact areas farther south. Southern Vermont could see more cloudiness and a period of very light snow Sunday night but even down there, it won't amount to much.
If one is to take a brief glance at the main NWS home page , the coverage of winter weather related advisories and warnings out west would be the first thing to jump out at you. The storm responsible for most of that is still headed in our direction for the middle of the week. If there has been a trend in some of the expectations over the past 48 hours, it suggests a stronger, juicier but also warmer system for northern Vermont. Precipitation would arrive late in the day Tuesday and it does appear that a period of heavier snow is possible for a time Tuesday evening into early Tuesday night. This snow hound continues to hope that the coastal low pressure that is expected to form Tuesday evening off the Jersey coast, will intensify more explosively and focus much of the snowfall over interior New England for an extended period of time. Though this remains a possibility it is not the current indication and thus a more modest period of snowfall is indicated. Snowfall totals by Wednesday morning would be in the 5-10 inch range and temperatures could approach the 30-degree mark at the base while remaining in the 20's a bit higher. The primary, occluded and initial area of low pressure will be up over the St Lawrence Valley and is likely to help continue spinning its leftover moisture in our direction. If I had to guess, much of the snow will come from that initial thump Tuesday evening and night followed by a several hour break followed by some persistent light snow during the day Wednesday and an additional 2-4 inches of snow. This would yield a storm total of about 7-14.
When I spoke of the PNA in the first paragraph and its apparent plan to throw a big "negative" bash that will continue for the next two weeks, my concern involves the impact that will have on the holiday weekend for us . A negative PNA isn't entirely bad for Vermont and with the help of a few other variables, the pattern can still find a way to productive. This "-PNA" is particularly strong however and capable of overwhelming about everything else. We certainly will get a bit more help on the storm track Tuesday/Wednesday but appear more likely to get less help on the holiday weekend. This has the potential to be another strong weather system and an interesting one but unfortunately, not an especially cold one. There are still several different possible scenarios that remain in play but the spectrum of possibilities is certainly slanted toward at least some wet weather and a period of above freezing temperatures in the Saturday/Sunday time frame (Feb 16-17).
There is some good news however. The ensuing holiday week looks better as time moves on thanks largely to a strengthening area of blocking in the jet stream over Greenland. Any subsequent storm, beyond February 18th, is more likely to be a snowy one and more productive for us skiers.
Thursday, February 7, 2019
Still monitoring our snow potential for next week and some concern for the holiday weekend
Mad River has now entered the heart of our ski season and is about the conclude our worst weather week since around Christmas/New Years. Yet we have survived thanks to the 150-plus inches of snow we've received on parts of the mountain so far. Following another short round of above freezing temperatures and less than a quarter inch of rain early Friday morning, winter-like temperatures will return to the mountain. Flurries or the occasional snow shower Friday night could give the mountain a dusting but that's about all I'd be willing to promise for the weekend. Both days this weekend should feature lots of sunshine at least with temperatures in the 20's during the day and as low as zero in a few spots early Sunday morning. Blustery conditions will prevail both Friday night and Saturday but Sunday appears to be on the calmer side.
Improvements remain in the cards for next week. Though its not expected to be especially cold, temperatures are expected to remain mostly below the freezing mark and we remain well-positioned for some new snow as the result of a storm system in the Feb 12-13 time frame. As some of you already know, snow conditions across a broad area of western ski country have just been unreal the past several days. Whether it be the San Juan, Sawatch, Front Range in Colorado, the Wasatch in Utah and especially the Sierra-Nevada mountains out toward the Pacific, everyone seems to be reporting big daily snow totals and epic ski conditions. Some of those storms have been traversing in our direction but the negative PNA has been the culprit of the more adverse storm tracks and uninvited warm intrusions. We should perform better from the storm next week which will exit the Rocky Mountains as a broad low pressure conglomeration on Monday and quickly travel northeast during the day Tuesday. One area of overrunning precipitation is expected to impact parts of the east coast early Monday but high pressure is expected to keep conditions dry and chilly across the state of Vermont. The main area of low pressure will then advance toward the region Tuesday and hint at yet another less than desirable storm track. This time however, the initial storm will undergo an earlier occlusion and a coastal low is expected to become a more potent focusing point for precipitation for New England. As mentioned, we appear to be well-positioned to score a bit of snow from this but I would like to see a lot more life from this coastal low. Take the model simulations at face value right now and it's a very garden variety event and likely less than 10 inches total. Lots of time remains on the game clock however so worth a watch for sure.
Snow showers or flurries along with seasonable temperatures (20's for highs, 5-15 for lows) should persist through Thursday and then drier conditions arrive by Friday bringing us to the all important President's Day holiday period. On a larger scale, everything looks ok, except the PNA which appears intent on remaining negative through the next 10 days and quite capable of being the catalyst for another temperature moderation over the holiday weekend. For now, this appears slow and somewhat benign but a storm system accompanied by milder temperatures is certainly a very plausible outcome around the 18th or 19th of the month (President's day is the 18th). To echo the last update, the milder air appears substantially stronger to our south but still capable of reaching parts of New England for a day. The Pacific appears to be under control and there is some loose agreement that the MJO will enter the colder North America phases around February 18th. The most encouraging aspect of some of the longer range signals involves the reestablishment of some substantial high latitude blocking over Greenland and this I think will help counteract and lingering negative influences from the PNA. That said, I still feel good about the month finishing pretty strong even if something bad were to happen around the President's Day holiday.
Improvements remain in the cards for next week. Though its not expected to be especially cold, temperatures are expected to remain mostly below the freezing mark and we remain well-positioned for some new snow as the result of a storm system in the Feb 12-13 time frame. As some of you already know, snow conditions across a broad area of western ski country have just been unreal the past several days. Whether it be the San Juan, Sawatch, Front Range in Colorado, the Wasatch in Utah and especially the Sierra-Nevada mountains out toward the Pacific, everyone seems to be reporting big daily snow totals and epic ski conditions. Some of those storms have been traversing in our direction but the negative PNA has been the culprit of the more adverse storm tracks and uninvited warm intrusions. We should perform better from the storm next week which will exit the Rocky Mountains as a broad low pressure conglomeration on Monday and quickly travel northeast during the day Tuesday. One area of overrunning precipitation is expected to impact parts of the east coast early Monday but high pressure is expected to keep conditions dry and chilly across the state of Vermont. The main area of low pressure will then advance toward the region Tuesday and hint at yet another less than desirable storm track. This time however, the initial storm will undergo an earlier occlusion and a coastal low is expected to become a more potent focusing point for precipitation for New England. As mentioned, we appear to be well-positioned to score a bit of snow from this but I would like to see a lot more life from this coastal low. Take the model simulations at face value right now and it's a very garden variety event and likely less than 10 inches total. Lots of time remains on the game clock however so worth a watch for sure.
Snow showers or flurries along with seasonable temperatures (20's for highs, 5-15 for lows) should persist through Thursday and then drier conditions arrive by Friday bringing us to the all important President's Day holiday period. On a larger scale, everything looks ok, except the PNA which appears intent on remaining negative through the next 10 days and quite capable of being the catalyst for another temperature moderation over the holiday weekend. For now, this appears slow and somewhat benign but a storm system accompanied by milder temperatures is certainly a very plausible outcome around the 18th or 19th of the month (President's day is the 18th). To echo the last update, the milder air appears substantially stronger to our south but still capable of reaching parts of New England for a day. The Pacific appears to be under control and there is some loose agreement that the MJO will enter the colder North America phases around February 18th. The most encouraging aspect of some of the longer range signals involves the reestablishment of some substantial high latitude blocking over Greenland and this I think will help counteract and lingering negative influences from the PNA. That said, I still feel good about the month finishing pretty strong even if something bad were to happen around the President's Day holiday.
Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Our late week storm will veer well north of us but next week is showing some needed promise
This week is not turning out as we had hoped. We got an old fashion torch early in the week with some limited sun, some wind and temperatures that exceeded expectations. Our late week storm does not appear intent on cooperating either. Though it appears to be a decent looking system, it will track up over Lake Huron and into western Quebec which is just a horrible trajectory if one is to be perfectly blunt about it. In spite of all that, the existing cold over North America is fighting hard to limit some of the damage and in the end we will live to fight into next week which continues to show promise and potential and hopefully will deliver.
A weakened area of colder Canadian air will ease into the region Tuesday night and send temperatures back toward more typical February levels by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain in the 20's through the afternoon and some breaks in the clouds during the morning will be replaced by an overcast sky late in the day ahead of the bigger and aforementioned weather system.
As promised we will have an overrunning surface to work with on the front end of this storm, but temperatures in what is considered the middle layers of the troposphere are very marginal, even by Wednesday evening when the first area of precipitation arrives. If this initial area of moisture is potent enough, a period of snow is likely but lighter precipitation is more likely to fall as a mix of sleet and freezing rain for several hours Wednesday night with temperatures in the middle or upper 20's. Temperatures will remain in sub-freezing territory for a good chunk of Thursday and if we can keep some of that freezing rain away Wednesday night, one might be able to sneak a few good turns on the hill. Much of the day Thursday will in fact be precipitation free but it will remain cloudy and visibility is likely to be limited. The surge of milder air is expected to intensify Thursday evening and night thanks to the undesirable track of this storm. Readings will climb above the freezing mark as the night progresses and a period of rain is likely though fortunately, rainfall amounts again appear limited. If the lower troposphere becomes "well-mixed" during the early part of Friday, temperatures could make a brief surge into the 50's but colder air is expected to make a quick return Friday evening and this return should be accompanied by some snow flurries.
Wintry temperatures should prevail for the upcoming weekend with readings generally in the teens or 20's but moisture appears very limited so my expectations for new snowfall are very minimal. Those expectations should change next week however. Though the structure of the pattern is largely the same with a negative PNA continuing focus winter weather on the western United States, the cold is expected to broaden its influence and push the storm track south and east. There have been hints for several days now of a storm in the Feb 12-13 time frame and a decent track will deliver some very favorable results and at a needed time.
Beyond February 13 we can expect colder weather to prevail through the rest of the week though the severity will fall well short of what Vermont saw on multiple occasions during the month of January. The weekend of the 16th and 17th may again see temperatures moderate as cold air in the middle part of North America continues to battle it out with a ridge in the jet stream which will be the focus of milder air that is expected to be fairly persistent in the southeast. I've seen opinions about the weather this month ranging from the return of the Polar Vortex which I find to be, frankly, ridiculous to the notion that winter is more or less over. The latter I don't expect either but from Washington, DC southward, winter is indeed expected to have a very limited influence on the weather for an extended amount of time. We are not Washington, DC however and the pattern, though short of ideal, is still capable of producing both next week and beyond from a snowfall standpoint.
A weakened area of colder Canadian air will ease into the region Tuesday night and send temperatures back toward more typical February levels by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain in the 20's through the afternoon and some breaks in the clouds during the morning will be replaced by an overcast sky late in the day ahead of the bigger and aforementioned weather system.
As promised we will have an overrunning surface to work with on the front end of this storm, but temperatures in what is considered the middle layers of the troposphere are very marginal, even by Wednesday evening when the first area of precipitation arrives. If this initial area of moisture is potent enough, a period of snow is likely but lighter precipitation is more likely to fall as a mix of sleet and freezing rain for several hours Wednesday night with temperatures in the middle or upper 20's. Temperatures will remain in sub-freezing territory for a good chunk of Thursday and if we can keep some of that freezing rain away Wednesday night, one might be able to sneak a few good turns on the hill. Much of the day Thursday will in fact be precipitation free but it will remain cloudy and visibility is likely to be limited. The surge of milder air is expected to intensify Thursday evening and night thanks to the undesirable track of this storm. Readings will climb above the freezing mark as the night progresses and a period of rain is likely though fortunately, rainfall amounts again appear limited. If the lower troposphere becomes "well-mixed" during the early part of Friday, temperatures could make a brief surge into the 50's but colder air is expected to make a quick return Friday evening and this return should be accompanied by some snow flurries.
Wintry temperatures should prevail for the upcoming weekend with readings generally in the teens or 20's but moisture appears very limited so my expectations for new snowfall are very minimal. Those expectations should change next week however. Though the structure of the pattern is largely the same with a negative PNA continuing focus winter weather on the western United States, the cold is expected to broaden its influence and push the storm track south and east. There have been hints for several days now of a storm in the Feb 12-13 time frame and a decent track will deliver some very favorable results and at a needed time.
Beyond February 13 we can expect colder weather to prevail through the rest of the week though the severity will fall well short of what Vermont saw on multiple occasions during the month of January. The weekend of the 16th and 17th may again see temperatures moderate as cold air in the middle part of North America continues to battle it out with a ridge in the jet stream which will be the focus of milder air that is expected to be fairly persistent in the southeast. I've seen opinions about the weather this month ranging from the return of the Polar Vortex which I find to be, frankly, ridiculous to the notion that winter is more or less over. The latter I don't expect either but from Washington, DC southward, winter is indeed expected to have a very limited influence on the weather for an extended amount of time. We are not Washington, DC however and the pattern, though short of ideal, is still capable of producing both next week and beyond from a snowfall standpoint.
Sunday, February 3, 2019
Not an ideal stretch of weather days this week but we've seen worse and February will make a comeback
Mad River Glen was able to procure another very successful week, squeezing out almost two feet of snow out of the available moisture, which was actually somewhat limited given the proximity of the powerful polar vortex and record cold over the Midwestern United States. The weather pattern, which has generally delivered in northern Vermont, in its many various states this season, will continue to evolve very rapidly with much of the cold and unsettled weather shifting its focus on the western parts of North America, not only during the upcoming week, but into the middle of February. Colorado, in particular, seems poised to have an exceptional stretch of skiing over the next 2 weeks with several big powder days likely throughout early February. The cold will relent and dramatically so over much of the eastern United States and Vermont will be playing defense as it often does during such weather patterns. As the details of this week gained some clarity, I was hoping we could avert much of the adversity. A lot of it, we actually will but the prospects for snow over the next 7 days don't look especially great.
There are varying degrees of "thaws" in Vermont. We've all seen the devastating variety. You know, the kind that include rain, wind, excessive dewpoints and 50-degree temperatures. Those have the capability of obliterating snow conditions in Vermont and often times taking out the snowpack completely in low lying areas or even on the mountain itself. We saw a pretty moderate thaw on January 24th which included an inch of rain and 40-degree temperatures but our large base of snow more or less survived that one. On the scale of things, the surge of temperatures on Monday appears very tame. Temperatures will approach 40 and remain above freezing much of Monday night but rainfall from the bypassing weather system appears very minimal, amounting to about a tenth of an inch or less. No thaw is harmless and any rain and subsequent freeze will obviously put an end to the powdery conditions but such is life skiing Vermont.
After the mild start this Tuesday, the refreeze occurs in the evening as temperatures fall back into the 20's, eventually dropping to 10 by Wednesday morning. The ski day on Wednesday appears to be a quiet one with some limited sunshine and readings rebounding into the 20's though unfortunately no new snow. Our late-week weather system certainly appears to be the stronger of the two impacting the state over the next 7 days. This being a broad low pressure conglomeration that will move out of the Rocky Mountains Wednesday and bring us some clouds by Wednesday night or early Thursday and precipitation shortly after. The mid-week cold is not a supported by an especially strong area of high pressure to our north but nonetheless, the "torchy" air which will invade the Mid-Atlantic will stay well south of Vermont. Precipitation has a chance at arriving as some snow or at the least fall as a wintry mix for a time before going to a period of freezing rain. There are still a couple of open avenues as far as possible outcomes for this storm and a considerable amount of disagreement regarding the track of this storm. I still think there is a chance for some decent accumulating snow Thursday on the front side of this storm but there is also a chance for a period of cold plain rain Thursday night or early Friday. We should be able to shake out the final details over the next 48 hours.
Colder air should bring temperatures back to more seasonable levels for the weekend but again, snowfall appears limited. High pressure should provide for a great day of sunshine Saturday, February 9th and the good visibility should continue into at least part of Sunday even high clouds start to advance into the region from the next weather system,
The prevailing weather pattern beyond the weekend looks similar to this week but there are indications that the 7-day period beginning February 11th will be a colder version of what we are expecting during the coming week. Though the Pacific looks a little feisty there are more indications (especially in the data early Sunday) of some ridging in the jet stream extending into the high latitudes of Alaska. Though the specific impact of this is up for debate on the various ensemble packages, I fully expect some of the warmth positioned along the east coast this week to be suppressed and the storm track to shift south. I know there are fears out there that we are in the process of degenerating into our third consecutive February collapse, but honestly I really don't see it. Just like a few days ago, there continue to be glaring indications that arctic air will remain a factor throughout the month and will not get scourged from North America entirely. After a rough stretch over the next few days, I expect a plethora of more optimistic news.
There are varying degrees of "thaws" in Vermont. We've all seen the devastating variety. You know, the kind that include rain, wind, excessive dewpoints and 50-degree temperatures. Those have the capability of obliterating snow conditions in Vermont and often times taking out the snowpack completely in low lying areas or even on the mountain itself. We saw a pretty moderate thaw on January 24th which included an inch of rain and 40-degree temperatures but our large base of snow more or less survived that one. On the scale of things, the surge of temperatures on Monday appears very tame. Temperatures will approach 40 and remain above freezing much of Monday night but rainfall from the bypassing weather system appears very minimal, amounting to about a tenth of an inch or less. No thaw is harmless and any rain and subsequent freeze will obviously put an end to the powdery conditions but such is life skiing Vermont.
After the mild start this Tuesday, the refreeze occurs in the evening as temperatures fall back into the 20's, eventually dropping to 10 by Wednesday morning. The ski day on Wednesday appears to be a quiet one with some limited sunshine and readings rebounding into the 20's though unfortunately no new snow. Our late-week weather system certainly appears to be the stronger of the two impacting the state over the next 7 days. This being a broad low pressure conglomeration that will move out of the Rocky Mountains Wednesday and bring us some clouds by Wednesday night or early Thursday and precipitation shortly after. The mid-week cold is not a supported by an especially strong area of high pressure to our north but nonetheless, the "torchy" air which will invade the Mid-Atlantic will stay well south of Vermont. Precipitation has a chance at arriving as some snow or at the least fall as a wintry mix for a time before going to a period of freezing rain. There are still a couple of open avenues as far as possible outcomes for this storm and a considerable amount of disagreement regarding the track of this storm. I still think there is a chance for some decent accumulating snow Thursday on the front side of this storm but there is also a chance for a period of cold plain rain Thursday night or early Friday. We should be able to shake out the final details over the next 48 hours.
Colder air should bring temperatures back to more seasonable levels for the weekend but again, snowfall appears limited. High pressure should provide for a great day of sunshine Saturday, February 9th and the good visibility should continue into at least part of Sunday even high clouds start to advance into the region from the next weather system,
The prevailing weather pattern beyond the weekend looks similar to this week but there are indications that the 7-day period beginning February 11th will be a colder version of what we are expecting during the coming week. Though the Pacific looks a little feisty there are more indications (especially in the data early Sunday) of some ridging in the jet stream extending into the high latitudes of Alaska. Though the specific impact of this is up for debate on the various ensemble packages, I fully expect some of the warmth positioned along the east coast this week to be suppressed and the storm track to shift south. I know there are fears out there that we are in the process of degenerating into our third consecutive February collapse, but honestly I really don't see it. Just like a few days ago, there continue to be glaring indications that arctic air will remain a factor throughout the month and will not get scourged from North America entirely. After a rough stretch over the next few days, I expect a plethora of more optimistic news.