Still monitoring our snow potential for next week and some concern for the holiday weekend

Mad River has now entered the heart of our ski season and is about the conclude our worst weather week since around Christmas/New Years. Yet we have survived thanks to the 150-plus inches of snow we've received on parts of the mountain so far. Following another short round of above freezing temperatures and less than a quarter inch of rain early Friday morning, winter-like temperatures will return to the mountain. Flurries or the occasional snow shower Friday night could give the mountain a dusting but that's about all I'd be willing to promise for the weekend. Both days this weekend should feature lots of sunshine at least with temperatures in the 20's during the day and as low as zero in a few spots early Sunday morning. Blustery conditions will prevail both Friday night and Saturday but Sunday appears to be on the calmer side.

Improvements remain in the cards for next week. Though its not expected to be especially cold, temperatures are expected to remain mostly below the freezing mark and we remain well-positioned for some new snow  as the result of a storm system in the Feb 12-13 time frame. As some of you already know,  snow conditions across a broad area of western ski country have just been unreal the past several days. Whether it be the San Juan, Sawatch, Front Range in Colorado, the Wasatch in Utah and especially the Sierra-Nevada mountains out toward the Pacific, everyone seems to be reporting big daily snow totals and epic ski conditions. Some of those storms have been traversing in our direction but the negative PNA has been the culprit of the more adverse storm tracks and uninvited warm intrusions. We should perform better from the storm next week which will exit the Rocky Mountains as a broad low pressure conglomeration on Monday and quickly travel northeast during the day Tuesday. One area of overrunning precipitation is expected to impact parts of the east coast early Monday but high pressure is expected to keep conditions dry and chilly across the state of Vermont. The main area of low pressure will then advance toward the region Tuesday and hint at yet another less than desirable storm track. This time however, the initial storm will undergo an earlier occlusion and a coastal low is expected to become a more potent focusing point for precipitation for New England. As mentioned, we appear to be well-positioned to score a bit of snow from this but I would like to see a lot more life from this coastal low. Take the model simulations at face value right now and it's a very garden variety event and likely less than 10 inches total. Lots of time remains on the game clock however so worth a watch for sure.

Snow showers or flurries along with seasonable temperatures (20's for highs, 5-15 for lows) should persist through Thursday and then drier conditions arrive by Friday bringing us to the all important President's Day holiday period. On a larger scale, everything looks ok, except the PNA which appears intent on remaining negative through the next 10 days and quite capable of being the catalyst for another temperature moderation over the holiday weekend. For now, this appears slow and somewhat benign but a storm system accompanied by milder temperatures is certainly a very plausible outcome around the 18th or 19th of the month (President's day is the 18th). To echo the last update, the milder air appears substantially stronger to our south but still capable of reaching parts of New England for a day. The Pacific appears to be under control and there is some loose agreement that the MJO will enter the colder  North America phases around February 18th. The most encouraging aspect of some of the longer range signals involves the reestablishment of some substantial high latitude blocking over Greenland and this I think will help counteract and lingering negative influences from the PNA. That said, I still feel good about the month finishing pretty strong even if something bad were to happen around the President's Day holiday.