A mostly wintry upcoming week with a good chance for some accumulating snow Thursday

Winter has made its return after the brief mild interlude and temperatures are expected to remain mostly below freezing on the hill through Wednesday morning. There are still no indications of a major storm over the next 7 days, but winter is expected to remain in place through March 24th and this includes a few chances for small amounts of snow

There's just enough low level moisture Sunday for some occasional light snow or flurries. Barring something freakish, there doesn't appear to be enough instability to support major amounts of terrain enhanced snow, but enough to bring a dusting to upwards of 2 inches. Intermittent flurries will continue through Monday though this will be combined with a few intervals of sunshine. Temperatures both Sunday and Monday will be on the chilly side of average, bottoming out in the teens during the early morning and only rising to within a few degrees of 30. Tuesday appears to be the sunniest of the upcoming 3 days and with calmer winds.

We've struggled with the big storm potential in recent weeks and I am going to attribute that to the now-vanished El Nino which has zapped all the energy out of the southern branch of the jet stream. We finally rid the pattern of the negative PNA which had focused much of the storminess out across the west for much of February but this more favorable eastern North America winter pattern appears to be a mostly dry one. Much of the country will actually be pretty spring-like but New England will remain firmly in winter's grip and after temperatures climb above the freezing mark just slightly on Wednesday, a clipper system will bring a decent chance for a few inches of snow plus another surge of colder temperatures. That snow would arrive Thursday morning and persist through at least part of the ski day. There are hints that this system could get a little extra charge as it encounters the Atlantic but the most likely scenario appears to be 2-5 inch event. The surge of colder temperatures Friday will also be accompanied by some additional snow showers and perhaps an additional accumulation.

The weekend of the 23rd and 24th continues to appear winter-like but Vermont will sit on the front flank of a building ridge over central North America. This should set the stage for at least one terrific weather days and models continue to fight about what might happen with the other. Temperatures should remain mostly below freezing at least Saturday and might only sneak above freezing Sunday afternoon.

More spring-like weather is again possible beginning on Monday March 25th and I expect 3 to 4 of the days in that week to feature at least 40 degree afternoons. This is pretty normal for the last 7 days of March. I mentioned in a tweet that there are signs of split flow in the jet stream and that the positive PNA structure is expected to remain in place if not strengthen. Split flow is when storminess undercuts the ridging in western North America and this can be a recipe for big east coast activity. This is way, way out there around the end of the month however, which makes the speculation a little futile for now.