Not a terrific looking weather pattern to finish 2019 but it could nonetheless get interesting both in the near term and into the new year

Fundamentally speaking, there are an increasing number of adverse variables dictating the weather pattern across North America. This of course refers to the lack of support for cold and snowy conditions in Vermont as we approach another Christmas holiday. With that said, the short term weather forecast hardly looks that terrible and there are no glaring indications of a sustained blowtorch as we approach the end of 2019 and move into the early part of 2020. Instead, the pattern, though certainly not cold, appears at least capable of producing 1 or 2 interesting storms. 

As mentioned the near term only consists of a mild Monday. Colder is is expected to arrive on Christmas Eve and we are not expecting any rainfall. Actually, much of Christmas Eve and Day appear to be pleasantly tranquil with at least partial sunshine and good visibility. It will be a little blustery Christmas Eve with winds around 10-15 mph but we've certainly encountered worse.

The last update discussed the possibility for snow late on Christmas Day into the 26th. We can upgrade the possibility for snowfall but we won't see any until late on the 26th. At that point, the minimal amount of cold air entrenched across interior New England should provide the overrunning surface necessary for a period of snowfall. Though snow could start as early as Thursday afternoon, it will likely be the Friday ski day which benefits the most from this. We have yet to see a total convergence of model output regarding this event but I'll call it a 60 percent chance we see a few inches Friday morning. At that point there are more diverging indications of what might occur with some indications that milder air could encroach on northern Vermont and other indications that interior New England remains cold through the start of the weekend. Following the mild start to the upcoming week, the biggest risk for a warm day and any mixed precipitation or rain appears to be either Friday 12/27 or early Saturday 12/28 though again, this is not yet conclusive.

If you follow the weather even just somewhat as religiously as I do, you might have heard about the persistent warmth in Alaska. Parts of central and northern Alaska have yet to record a below normal month in 2019 and have spent alarming amounts of time at or above record level temperatures. Over the next two weeks however, this recent trend will get thrown on its head as intense cold will settle over the state and remain there through the start of 2020. Typically, cold, arctic air in Alaska corresponds to a lack thereof in the more southern sections of North America and I expect this to be no exception. Alaskan cold also often corresponds to a more vigorous jet stream in the Pacific and ensembles continue to suggest an intensification here. Its looking more and more like an "Evil Empire" unfortunately and if I were to look the weather pattern in the eastern Pacific in isolation, I might expect a full blown blow torch across eastern North America. But the ensembles, as they have done for days, are not suggesting that at least as of yet.

There is a threat for the aforementioned warm day on the 27th or 28th but colder weather, possibly accompanied by some snowfall is possible on the 29th and 30th. After that, more mild air thwarting storminess appears likely with continued strong hints of some sort of major jet amplification along the east coast very early in 2020. Given the arctic cold in this pattern, any storm could push mixed precipitation, rain or warm weather into Vermont but at least we have a puncher's chance in a pattern where sometimes we would not.