Short term outlook is bad and the outlook for upcoming weekend has deteriorated

I was very pleased to see an over-performance on Friday and Friday night and what looked to be a beautiful opener at MRG Saturday and some great wintry visibility Sunday. It won't be so beautiful Monday and Tuesday and unfortunately this will be the start of a less than stellar week on the mountain.

Warm air is poised to flood the state of Vermont Monday along with modest amounts of moisture. Precipitation that falls before about 10 am on Monday could be snow or a wintry mix of snow and sleet. Temperatures will surge toward the 40 degree mark by the late afternoon Monday and allow the period of precipitation in this time slot to be of the plain rain variety. Much of the rain associated with this mild surge of air will actually fall either late in the day Monday or Monday evening and we are only expecting about a third to a half of an inch of rain but the combination of the wet weather, high dewpoints and a persistent wind will do some serious damage to the varying levels of early season snowpack across the state. Temperatures will continue to rise into the 40's late in the afternoon Monday and remain steady overnight before surging up past 50 in valley locations early on Tuesday. Most of Tuesday will should actually be precipitation-free and might feature sporadic amounts of blue sky. The cold front marking the end of the tropical abomination arrives late on Tuesday and temperatures are expected to nosedive back toward the freezing mark shortly after dark Tuesday evening. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along this front allowing the undercutting area of advancing cold to provide a platform for an area of snow Wednesday morning, but this zone of accumulating snow is largely expected to miss the state of Vermont and also steal lingering moisture from interior mountain locations.

Another disturbance associated with a more significant push of arctic cold will spread some snow showers into the state Wednesday evening and night. High elevations of northern Vermont will pick up a very light accumulation of mostly less than 3 inches and yes, we will need a lot more than this to get us back in business following the meltdown. Wintry temperatures consisting of 5-15 degree overnights and twenties during the day will dominate Wednesday and Thursday. Friday will feature a slightly more moderate afternoon thanks to some sunshine.

The most disappointing aspect of this outlook has to do with the upcoming weekend.  Yeah sure the next few days are bad but us avid skiers probably already considered that a "sunk cost" so to speak, but the next storm deteriorating into another toilet-flusher is a big let-down. As feared, this system will amplify too early across the Mississippi Delta region and flood much of the east coast with warm air. Lingering sub-freezing temperatures will likely provide for a period of mixed precipitation Satuday, but straight-up snow appears unlikely while heavy rain at some point during the weekend appears more likely. This storm, which is forecast to track over the Ohio River and up over Lake Erie might spread series amounts of snow into the U.P. of Michigan but certainly not over interior New England.

Colder weather will return again for Sunday, the 15th of December and this should begin a more promising stretch of weather. Some snowfall should accompany the return of this colder weather on the aforementioned Sunday and another weather system could bring some snow to the region either Monday or Tuesday. Beyond that the outlook can can be described as marginal. High latitude blocking in the jet stream appears absent and the jet stream in the Pacific appears to be getting stronger as we advance beyond the middle part of the month. This will certainly limit the availability of extreme cold across mid-latitude North America which ensembles certainly indicate as we head toward the solstice. That said, the pattern continues to look stormy and the long-wave jet stream pattern being indicated does not suggest any extended torchiness.

Overall, this is certainly a negative turn in the outlook going forward mainly having to do with the short term 7-day forecast for the upcoming week.