No epic snow for the upcoming week, but a few inches are expected multiple times before the punishment begins

So no big storm this week unfortunately but my advice would be to enjoy whatever we get (which is some) because we are going to take some old fashion punishment with this upcoming pattern beginning this weekend. We have a minimal amount of polar air in place as of late Sunday/early Monday and as milder Pacific air attempts to envelop the region later on Monday, clouds and a period of snow should be the result. The clouds late Monday should keep temperatures from eclipsing the freezing mark and the snow will amount to 1-3 inches by early Tuesday. Models actually indicate multiple periods of snow with one coming late on Monday and another in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. The actual ski day Tuesday is expected to be pretty quiet albeit cloudy with minimal wind and temperatures hovering in the upper 20's.

My greatest fears with the midweek storm will likely be realized. At least that is the strong indication according to all the information released over the last 36 hours. Systems that require a "phasing" of the jet stream look incredible for a day or two on the forecast models and then vanish. A successfully phased system is often not picked up well by forecast models until the last second. The late March storm of this past year was one such case if I remember correctly. In this particular instance, the southern stream is providing too much eastward momentum to its contributing weather system which is now expected out over the Virginia Tidewater Tuesday evening as the polar energy finally descends on the Great Lakes. As a result, some wet snow is possible over the Virginia piedmont on Tuesday but big snow across New England appears very unlikely. The polar disturbance or "kicker" as it's sometimes referred to, will energize the atmosphere a bit as it approaches Vermont on Wednesday. A period of snow and snow showers can be expected and winds are expected to turn more northwesterly in the midday hours which will both usher in a brief period of colder temperatures and provide a window of favorable Lake Champlain, terrain enhanced snow for the high country around the MRV. I can't predict epic snow but I do think Wednesday will be the last very good powder day for a while with 2-6 inches of the fluffier stuff accompanied by those blustery aforementioned winds, especially at the summits. The snow and the we wind will be a memory by Thursday; a cold day, but with healthy amounts of sun and excellent visibility.

More of my worst fears are likely to be realized as we get toward the upcoming weekend. A mammoth ridge in the jet stream will establish itself along the east coast and there will be no holding back the mild air. Following a chilly, near 10 degree start Friday, mild air will flood the region in spite of clouds and some rain or freezing rain in a few spots should advance into the region in the midday or afternoon hours. The rain Friday will be light but a more significant storm is expected to organize in the Mississippi and Ohio Valley's by Saturday allowing more warm air and lots of moisture to get sucked northward. The mild temperatures which will consist of 40 degree readings Friday night will become 50-degree readings Saturday with heavy rain very possible throughout the state. It will take a miracle to get untangled from this debauchery so I'll throw that statement out there now and just hope for the best. The rain should be mostly gone by Sunday and temperatures will be forced back to sub-freezing levels, at least temporarily.

What is the deal with this god forsaken January pattern ? When forecasting a big picture pattern I am a big believer of watching the jet stream in the Pacific Ocean. It is a very intuitive approach that can make perfect sense even to the weather-hating layman. When in a rapidly flowing river, you do want to watch upstream if concerned that objects might take you out. In this case, the jet stream in the Pacific (upstream) is a clenched fist which I playfully refer to as an "evil empire". Storminess in the Pacific is thus confined to one raging torrent in a small latitudinal section of the Ocean often between 40 and 60 N. I find it very depressing honestly but areas out west will benefit with repeated snows in many of our favorite ski regions along with consistently chilly temperatures. For an optimal snowy pattern in Vermont, we desperately need this jet stream to loosen up considerably or at least have a large high latitude block in the jet stream to help counteract the negative impacts of this very positive EPO pattern. In this instance, the Arctic is not cooperating and we are dealing with the added influence of a very positive Arctic Oscillation. Ensembles are indicating 1-2 wintry interludes in this pattern for the duration of the month but my guess is that more full scale relief will have to wait until February.