Can't promise a big snow but we can expect almost all snow late Tuesday to go along with a wintry week

Temperatures topped out right around the freezing mark at the base of Mad River Glen and Sugarbush Sunday afternoon, but just as advertised, the upcoming holiday week is expected to stay wintry and decidedly sub-freezing. Arctic high pressure is expected to build across northern New England Monday and should allow for modest amounts of sunshine to celebrate Washington's birthday along with temperatures near 20. We can expect a bit of wind most of the day, generally in the 10-15 mph range with a few higher gusts. Those winds will die out Monday night and allow temperatures to fall back toward zero before clouds arrive from our upcoming Tuesday storm system.

This next storm will attract a bit of both subtropical and Atlantic ocean moisture but is never expected to evolve into anything substantial. That said, precipitation with this system is expected to stay predominantly snow thanks to the somewhat stronger dome of cold (verses initial expectations) in place late Monday and early Tuesday and a weak area of low pressure that will develop near coastal New England Tuesday which will pinch off a good chunk of the mid-level warm surge. Precipitation will start as powdery snow and pretty much stay powdery snow late in the ski day Tuesday into the evening before tapering off. There's still a chance a little sleet could mix with the snow Tuesday evening but I don't expect this to be a big deal. The larger disappointment with this storm relates to precipitation amounts which don't appear too hefty thanks to both the quick moving nature of this storm and its lack of intensity. As such, this looks to be a 3-6 inch event with much of it over by bedtime Tuesday evening. Flurries and a heavier snow shower or two on Wednesday will refresh the mountains with an additional inch or two but stability parameters are not suggesting a big Champlain/terrain induced snow event right now. Similar conditions are likely for Thursday as well but temperatures will be near 10 Thursday and closer to 20 Wednesday. Both days should feature a rather persistent northwest wind. More sunshine and less wind can then be expected by Friday with temperatures climbing up to around 20 after starting the day below zero.

Temperatures are expected to moderate by the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd but only gradually and not excessively. Upon closer examination, the polar jet will be close enough to bring the chance for a light snow event at some point next weekend while likely limiting any mild weather. The question then becomes whether northern New England can continue to repel an additional push of mild air around the 24th and 25th of the month. Recent model data is beginning to hint at that possibility and at least a chance that again, MRG and the surrounding high country can stay on the wintry side of the action. That said, I wouldn't entirely eliminate the risk of a thaw, especially somewhere around the 26th of the month. After that it looks better, thanks largely to what appears to be a somewhat neutralized set of teleconnection indices.