Show some pride MRG and northern Vermont. The Arctic Oscillation is nearly off the charts positive, the pattern is not especially good but we have made every inch of 44.19 N latitude count and have managed to stay wintry for the first part of February. It has been a stick and mud abomination south of the Vermont border this winter and many ski areas across the mid-Atlantic region have struggled to simply get a few hours of sub-freezing temps the last two weeks !
Our Thursday storm is also on track to deliver. The storm has some moisture but will remain a flatish wave as it proceeds on its trajectory from the Ohio Valley Wednesday night to southern New England Thursday. Light to moderate snow will begin at MRG before dawn and continue until early afternoon before tapering off. Temperatures will be relatively close to the freezing mark across low lying areas but remain confined to the 20's across the high country which includes most of Mad River's skiable terrain. Most of the moisture with this system is expected to fall as rain and will fall south of the state. Northern Vermont is safely snow by at least 60 miles but without an amplifier, the snowfall should remain on the lighter side and accumulations will be in the 4-8 inch category. A nice little refill but no, not epicosity.
We have a rather serious but quick burst of arctic chill arriving on the heels of our little Thursday snow event. The cold will wait until very late in the ski day before arriving, but arrive it will and so so in force and with wind. Friday will be a dry day atop all the snowcover but temperatures will start the day below zero and struggle to reach 5 degrees on the mountain and it will feel much colder thanks to the effect of the wind (-30 or -40 at times). Saturday is also a dry and very bluebird day. Though temperatures will start close to -10, a strong dose of February sunshine and little wind will make it a rather comfortable winter day as temperatures rise to the high teens. More clouds are expected to arrive by Sunday but with milder temperatures of near 30 degrees. Yes, there remains a chance for some light snow Sunday but models have downgraded this system from a potency standpoint and indicate very little accumulation, at least as of now.
I want to stay on our 44.19 N latitude theme because we will need every inch of it again next week. I would take this weather pattern and place it straight in the outhouse if I had my way but we have fought, scratched and clawed our way through it so far and have a chance to do so again next week. First, it looks as if the holiday weekend is safe. A weak areas of arctic high pressure is expected to build over the state by Monday and keep readings very seasonable which for February is still way below freezing. The jet stream ridge along the east coast is expected to strengthen as low pressure begins organizing in the central plains. This storm has trouble written all over it but the forecasted track has improved somewhat and the continued presence of cold air in eastern Canada might provided us with a much needed assist. Given the challenging set of parameters that the weather pattern presents to us east coast skiers, I would consider a snow to wintry-mix scenario a moral victory. That said, the chances for a thaw and at least a partial rain event persist with this storm late on Tuesday into early Wednesday - February 18th and 19th. Another temporary burst of arctic cold arrives in the wake of the Tues/Wed storm followed by another modification. The weekend of the 22nd and 23rd still appears to be on the mild side but it remains a bit difficult to pinpoint what that might consist of.
After that, there are continued indications of slight improvements though I would hardly call it ideal. Just a bit of weakening in the Pacific and a neutral to positive looking PNA which would suggest a more normalish finish to the month or at least not excessively mild.
It’s been going off around Smuggs lately, fingers crossed for next week, Josh!
ReplyDelete