April Fools storm update and a cooler outlook for the first two weeks of the month

 So, one of the better snow events over the past month continues to headline the forecast for the start of April. The outlook for the first 2 weeks of the month generally continues to cool but the April 1-3 period is almost certainly going to be the coldest, most wintry period of the month with not just snow but powder snow falling not only over the high country but low lying locations as well. 

Mild weather and some much needed rain is expected for Wednesday evening. Many locations in northern Vermont are still below an inch of for the month and running deficits now can cause problems later in the summer. The rain Wednesday evening should place many of those same locations above an inch for the month but of more significance is a regenerated area of low pressure that is expected to take shape near Cape Cold early Thursday as temperatures turn abruptly colder in Vermont. Looking at some atmospheric soundings, rain could actually turn to a period of sleet during the morning and then moderate to occasionally heavy snow during the midday and afternoon hours. Temperatures will drop close to the freezing mark during the morning but continue to fall during the afternoon supporting the aforementioned colder snow consistency throughout the MRV. The steady snow will taper to snow showers Thursday night and I still like the of a 4-8 inch grand total by Friday morning at Mad River Glen and Sugarbush. From Stowe, northward to Jay Peak, 6-10 inches appears more likely. Friday is a blustery, cold almost January-like day with temperatures in the teens during the morning and mostly in the twenties during the day, in spite of some sunny intervals. You never say never in northern New England but I would guess Friday is the last true sub-freezing day we see this winter. The outlook does look colder as I mentioned beyond April 3 but not that cold. 

We can expect some strong winds of 20-30 mph across high elevations late Thursday and into Friday and although that will subside over the weekend, the wind will not die out altogether. Temperatures are also expected to moderate more gradually, only readings the high 30's Saturday and 40's on Sunday. Our expected weather pattern has shifted a little thanks to the reemergence of an old friend, a blocking structure across the Labrador Sea and Davis Strait region. This is similar to a feature that dominated the weather pattern for 6 weeks in December and through a good part of January this past year. In this case, storms are expected to tunnel underneath this structure and the question relates to what particular region of mid-latitude North America gets impacted by such storminess. It could be northern New England which would mean perhaps an elevation sensitive snowfall and some needed precipitation or it could be further south impacting the Mid-Atlantic states. In either case, the weather looks cooler in Vermont though not necessarily cold. A storm is retrograde westward late this weekend into early next week, ultimately positioning itself south of Nova Scotia Monday and Tuesday before finally being swept eastward. The presence of this feature will keep wind and some cloudiness over Vermont in this period and will also keep temperatures generally in the 40's most days. Storminess, if we get it, could arrive by late in the week but models are very split on that idea. It looked unlikely in the last update however, at least through April 9 and it's at least possible now. Beyond April 9th, much of eastern North America looks normal to cool which is certainly a change relative to what was expected in early April a week ago. 

Going to do one more general update (unless a storm shows up) early next week so I'll wish everyone a happy Easter now and thanks for the outpouring a well wishes in the last update. Was very surprised to see so many responses there and I certainly appreciate it.