Enjoy the spring interlude because winter weather returns for a 10-day period beginning this weekend and includes storm potential next week

 We got a little taste Wednesday but it was El Torchy extraordinaire on Thursday as mild south and southwesterly breezes effectively mixed some of the strong mid-level warmth down to the surface and on to the mountain. So this spring tease goes the way of many in Vermont, giving us 1 full day of corn horn though Wednesday we managed to soften roughly half the mountain. Thanks to a mild overnight on Thursday, we should wake up to more soft snow conditions early Friday but the initial boundary of cold air will have cleared us by early in the day and keep temperatures closer to the 40 degree mark across the upper part of the mountain and 45-50 at the base. 

Winter will return to the Vermont high country for the weekend with mostly sub-freezing temperatures in spite of some sunshine. We actually do have two legitimate chances for Champlain enhanced terrain snow with the first coming Friday night and likely depositing 1-3 ahead of a chilly Saturday. A reinforcing and more direct shot of arctic cold will bring the second chance for snow showers during the midday hours Sunday. I took an early look at some stability parameters for Sunday and it looks impressive for a few hours (much like it did March 1/2) but the incoming arctic chill is also very dry. In other words, whatever falls Sunday might be briefly intense but is not likely to sustain long enough for a big accumulation, just another 1-3. 

To summarize the outlook, the week beginning on the Ides of March looks colder and more wintry while following week beginning on March 22 appears milder. Throughout the period we will continue to see cold arctic air dominate much of eastern Canada, but the weakened Pacific Ocean jet stream is expected to allow this same cold to dominate much of New England next week as well and then relent somewhat during the following week. In addition to the cold temperatures, I think we have two decent chances for new snowfall and not the inconsequential kind. The first chance comes Tuesday night  into Wednesday from an overrunning type system that will try and mostly fail to bring milder temperatures into interior New England for the middle part of the week. These type of systems are not the kind that produce a foot or more of snow over a widespread area but I do expect a good zone of thump snow and I am hoping we can get in on that. The second storm on March 19/20 has the potential to be more significant with the necessary ingredients on the table for a big storm. One of those ingredients, a polar jet impulse that if nothing else, ensures that the weekend of the 20th/21st will be a wintry one as opposed to a more spring-like one with temperatures again staying mostly sub-freezing. To expand on that, it looks like all the thawing will be put on hold beginning March 13th with temperatures remaining almost entirely sub-freezing across the high country for a period of over a week.

As mentioned, the ensembles suggest temperatures will moderate beginning the 22nd of the month but they aren't suggesting a repeat of the spring-like weather being experienced currently. It is more likely that milder above-freezing days are mixed in with 1-2 more winter-like days. Pretty normal stuff for late March.