Mostly cold for at least another week in northern Vermont with several chances for small accumlations of snow and 1 chance for a bigger one

At the Knapp Airport in Berlin, the low temperature of 11 and high of 29 on Sunday officially measured at 9.5 below normal, falling just short of 10 below normal. So the 6-month streak of avoiding the "10 below normal or more" cold remains for now. It is very likely to fall this weekend with more intense cold expected to land on northern Vermont atop of some snow cover. This highlights what is a decent short term outlook extending out maybe 7-10 days which includes a few chances for small accumulations of snow and 1 chance for a decent storm. We have some concerning weather pattern fundamentals to contend with beginning around December 8th but even this potentially less than optimal pattern leaves some room for encouragement. 

A mostly cloudy and chilly day Tuesday should be followed by some very light snow Tuesday Night into Wednesday. This is a very benign weather disturbance but is still capable of yielding a very low density accumulation. Milder 30-plus degree temperatures and some sunshine then follows for Wednesday before clouds in advance of a vigorous BC bomber type system arrive Wednesday evening. Even without a ton of moisture, this southeastward moving system has an impressive look. Current forecast models have our area of north central Vermont missing the best quadrant for snow but not by much (we would be 50 miles too far south). Even still, we should expect a period of snow Thursday along with near freezing temperatures and some snow showers early Friday with the arrival of colder weather. A small 1-3 inch accumulation would be my best guess with this for now but this could rise or fall depending on the exact track of this weather system. 

The Thursday storm is the first of what is a relatively active pattern with one consolidated jet stream and a decent supply of early December chill in Canada. An initial surge of colder weather should arrive by Friday which is likely to mark the first of a 5-day stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. We are likely to miss out on some light snow that might impact portions of the Mid-Atlantic Friday night but temps could fall to the single numbers and only rebound into the teens on Saturday with a repeat of this for Sunday. The potential storm would impact the region Sunday night or Monday. It appears to be involve energy from the Pacific that would get a big infusion of energy and moisture from the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. Models aren't even close to sorting through particulars of this storm or even the presence or absence of said storm. I've seen a wide variety of outcomes which would indicate a forecast that is likely to evolve over the coming days. If there is an identifiable trend in recent data, it does involve colder temperatures during the period in question which is certainly good news. This cold weather is likely to remain in place across New England through at least Tuesday December 7th as I mentioned but I could certainly envision this continuing through most of next week in spite of some operational models suggesting a mid-week torch. 

The longer range ensembles are painting a picture consisting of a pattern without any high latitude blocking and with more averse jet stream activity in the Pacific. A strong mid-latitude ridge is expected to develop in the Pacific and unsurprisingly, it is indicated to set up right over the warmest blob of water discussed in the seasonal outlook. As a result, Arctic air is expected to retreat after December 8th so where is the good news here ?. Well, we successfully managed to get some of the coldest air in the world on our continent and it should remain there even as the pattern  turns move adverse next week. As I mentioned in the seasonal outlook, we are facing down some pretty tough feedback mechanisms in the form of various bodies of warm water temperatures (Great Lakes, Hudson Bay, western North Atlantic Ocean) .We need some help in this regard and we are getting it in the Hudson Bay, a region of central Canada that saw some incredible warmth in Autumn. Much of northern Canada and especially Alaska has turned very cold however and those conditions are expected to remain over the next two weeks and beyond. We can thus be confident that the Hudson Bay will freeze on schedule (mid December), eliminating at least one bad feedback ahead of Christmas. Additionally, the colder weather in Canada will be close enough to New England for an impact and ensembles, although milder after December 10th, are not suggesting a sustained torch in Vermont.