Clouds, light snow and some mixed precipitation dominate the outlook for the rest of this week while a bigger storm brings snow potential for the New Years weekend

I endured my first significant bust of the season with a Christmas Storm that featured way more ice and way too little snow relative to my outlook and more importantly to our collective approval. This weather pattern is not providing any time to wallow in forecast sorrows as a very active weather is expected over the next week. The jet stream ridge in the southeastern U.S. is proving durable, even when faced with increased amounts of polar energy and we thus have a situation where we will be in the path of many weather systems. We will undoubtedly get some snow in this setup but also be faced with more marginal situations comprised of mid-level mild intrusions leading to more sleet and ice. 

We have enough cold air in place Monday night to support a period of light snow and 1-3 inches, mostly in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Clouds and some of that light snow will continue into early Tuesday but I expect visibility to improve some as the day progresses and as winds shift to a more westerly direction and a weakened area of high pressure builds in from the north. Fair weather breaks will be very short-lived in this regime and especially this week and any clearing late Tuesday will be followed by increasing clouds early Wednesday in advance of a weak area of low pressure approaching from the west. We can expect mostly clouds, sub-freezing temperatures and calm winds Wednesday with precipitation holding off until Wednesday night. Another marginal precipitation situation awaits us Wednesday night into Thursday when, if we were to see heavy enough precipitation, we could see a decent period of snow. At least right now, precipitation is indicated to be fairly light however opening the door for another "mixed precipitation" situation. Temperature profiles do appear a little colder than they did over Christmas but as I mentioned, precipitation appears lighter and I would guess that we see a little bit of everything between late Wednesday night and early Thursday amounting to 1 or 2 inches of an icy conglomerate. 

The most significant east coast weather system we have seen in a while is now expected to impact the region New Years Day and into January 2nd (which makes up the entirety of New Years weekend).  Though we are still awaiting to unravel some critical details, there could be multiple areas of low pressure involved and a variety of precipitation types though I am increasingly confident we can keep it all frozen in our part of Vermont. A modified area of arctic cold is expected to fight its way into interior New England on New Years eve following Thursday's precipitation and provide us with decent enough area of low level cold to support a solid front-end thump of snow on New Years Day. Much will hinge on critical details as I mentioned and although an epic 1-2 footer is unlikely with this event based on the current projected storm track, 6-12 powdery inches takes up some decent space in the possibility spectrum. This would be followed by the potential for some mixed precipitation Saturday night (still Jan 1) and into Sunday followed by the potential for some additional snow late Sunday into early Monday. The strongest area of cold this season should then makes its way into New England for January 3rd and keep us very chilly though at least the 5th. 

As I mentioned a few days ago, the emergence of the Chukchi Sea block on all of the ensemble simulations is one of the more noteworthy jet stream features on the early January 2022 weather map. It is almost a certainty that intense arctic air will plunge southward in North America but the Chukchi Sea is pretty good distance from eastern North America even when measuring in jet stream long waves. New England will again not be the focal point for the extreme cold and this type of setup will continue to allow the ridge in the southeastern U.S. to flourish and leave Vermont in the continued battleground area of weather. After a few days of cold weather between January 3-5, we might face another marginal scenario where a storm system is attempting to force mild air into New England around January 6-7 and this would be followed by another round of colder arctic air. I fully expect our snow depth to be in a much better situation than it is now in two weeks time but it will be a bumpy ride and there is no clear evidence of a home-run event as of now.