Uncertainty remains regarding specifics but snowfall over the next 8 days looks better beginning early Christmas Eve

 The White Mountains got a bit of light snow Wednesday morning and parts of interior Maine saw a decent snow event from the mostly offshore storm conglomeration. Vermont was in the unlucky zone this time and aside from snow showers on Wednesday/evening night, our high country under-performed. Our natural snow prospects are looking up generally with several chances emerging or coming into focus beginning early on Christmas Eve. We have a concern around the New Years holiday but I would be inclined to take the "over" on a foot of new snow before Near Years 2022 and the pattern looks favorable for more in the first week of 2022. 

The Hudson Bay is now 80 percent frozen and this is allowing stronger arctic air to infiltrate eastern Canada. Some of that chill will successfully make inroads into northern Vermont Wednesday night into early Thursday and as a result, we can expect the coldest day of the season so far with temperatures holding in the teens across the high country and struggling to 20 in the Valley. Clouds and an area of light snow are expected early on Christmas Eve. The best chance for 2-4 inches appears to be over the Berkshires or southern Vermont but this zone of snowfall has looked better and better over time and 1-3 inches looks likely the MRV as opposed to just possible with all of this coming before the ski day. Of even more interest is what appears to be a healthier area of moisture associated with an approaching storm system late on Christmas Day into Sunday the 26th. Models are having trouble establishing a clear consensus on the outcome here but the American model has, for several runs, indicated a significant snowfall for much of northern Vermont. I want to be optimistic but taken in the aggregate, a significant storm of over 10 inches remains just possible but a light snowfall late on Christmas Day into early on the 26th of at least 3 inches appears likely. The forecast is likely to evolve a bit so stay tuned. 

Interestingly, the models not on board with a storm on the 25th/26th are on board with snowfall Monday/Tuesday the 27th and 28th. So it appears to be a situation where the various forecast simulations are having trouble resolving the complicated interaction of jet stream shortwaves and areas of moisture and surface features. In spite of this uncertainty however, we have the right ingredients for snowfall through December 30th and are in a good spot for snow in a fairly wide range of scenarios. Just a matter of determining the where and the when. 

Where I have some concern is the period around New Years. The big picture jet stream view has a blocking feature in the Hudson Straight around this time while a ridge in the southeast United States experiences from temporary strengthening. I can recall how the Christmas 2020 forecast evolved into a debauchery and will note some similarities. We don't want any storm getting sucked into central Canada to the west of that block and would much prefer a storm that would tunnel through all of that and allow cold air to remain entrenched over Vermont. Ensemble data would seem to suggest a latter scenario for now but I am little nervous. 

Meanwhile the bitterly cold air over North America will maintain an intense focus on western Canada and portions of the Pacific Northwest both around and after Christmas. Most of the big weather headlines that are winter related will be focused on that region of North America but some of that cold is indicated to stretch eastward into early 2022 and impact parts of New England. If we can avoid a New Years thaw, we would be set up well for a productive start to 2022. Congratulations to all for rounding another Winter Solstice. We can never be too certain about weather conditions but we can say that the next 6 months will feature increasing amounts of light so enjoy !