Bitterly cold temperatures dominate the forecast picture (strong winds Fri/Sat) for MLK weekend but outlook looks unfortunately less snowy

Chilly January weather pattern continues to be the headline but our desperate search for significant natural snow endures for this week and, in all likelihood, through most of the holiday weekend as well. Snow showers and a few snow squalls associated with the strongest push of arctic air so far this season were confined to southern Vermont Monday while low level stability has taken control across northern Vermont and will maintain control through Tuesday. We get a big visibility, bone chilling, bluebird day Tuesday but with temperatures generally staying below zero on the mountain and only slightly above zero in low lying areas. Feisty winds will continue through the middle part of the day before subsiding Tuesday evening. 

Temperatures will modify, temporarily for Wednesday and Thursday as a large storm strengthens off the Atlantic Coast. We've seen this happen on a few occasions this winter and its hurt our ability to procure a normal allotment of terrain enhanced snow. In spite of this, incoming polar energy is expected to allow for an inverted trough set up and an area of  light snow across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains on Thursday. Models are not especially bullish on snow amounts but a light accumulation is still my expectation. The polar energy is expected to further fuel the offshore storm and usher another area of dry arctic chill into New England for the weekend. Though the forecast for Friday, Saturday and Sunday is certainly quite cold, it also appears much drier thanks to northwest flow aloft and storminess that is now expected to track well to our south on Saturday. We should see plenty of sunshine through early Sunday but once again, no new snow. I might point out that the strengthening offshore storm on Friday combined with a strong arctic high over Ontario means very windy conditions will accompany the single digit daytime temperatures. Northerly winds at the summits will be in the 30-40 mph range and will only slightly subside on Saturday. Measured in terms of wind chill, the upcoming weekend will be one of the coldest since the arctic outbreak in early 2018 so plan accordingly.

Chances for new snow do increase next week beginning as early as MLK day with additional chances for the ensuing week. The pattern appears decidedly chilly next week but the bitterly cold air from this weekend is expected to modify while disturbances moving quickly through the polar jet stream will present opportunities for snowfall. There are actually several different scenarios that would include some snowfall for the Vermont high country and though most of them consist of lighter snowfall amounts, there remains the chance for something more significant. The jet stream is likely to undergo a more significant amplification late in the week and in addition to the snow chance, the chances for another round of bitterly cold arctic outbreak increase. Ensembles show a pretty clear signal for some extreme cold in the Great Lakes and New England around January 24 which is the Monday of the last full week of January.