Midday Friday data nudges storm back to the east and is not quite as strong

So I wanted to provide a quick update on our storm in response to some data released at midday Friday. The shift to the west ended and models seemed to have settled on the idea that the storm tracks within a 100 or so miles of Cape Cod. The other trend, and I am not sure how much of this is real, is that the surface low gets stretched to the east as it tries to rapidly intensify and this is messing with its ability to undergo a clean detonation. This latter issue is either very real or something imaginary that will disappear on a subsequent set of model runs, but it is critical since it pertains to the maturation process of the storm and its ability to spread snowfall west of its center. An early maturation is better for us, a delayed maturation and the snowfall will be more consolidated to the coastline. 

I've been optimistic on this storm because of the prevailing upper level environment and the relative warmth of the coastal Atlantic which has been a big feature of the winter season and has even earned a few headlines in national news recently. This certainly doesn't mean I will be right however and for as much as data yesterday evening suggested a well stuck double, today's data is a lot less so. With that said, I am balancing some of my existing views on this storm with the latest round of model data. It's very tough because this is such a tight gradient with some other very consequential questions that remain unanswered. The moral of this update, 5-10 appears to be more of a reach again and the original 2-5 inches appears more likely. It is certainly worth watching how this storm evolves given how small changes will have such a big impact on results.