Before proceeding with today's outlook, lets raise a glass to another great MLK storm now in the books. This storm defied a lot of conventional wisdom (lets be honest, all weather does) especially considering that the low pressure center tracked right over Vermont and we didn't get cheated on moisture, didn't warm past the freezing mark and didn't sleet ! We did eventually get the dry slot after 13 inches, but I wasn't one to complain given how dire the snow situation has been around here. What a terrific over-performance !
Wednesday's clipper system will, unfortunately, not be as kind as the storm on MLK day. As mentioned previously, we are in the wrong quadrant of this system. After a chilly, near zero-degree morning, we can expect clouds and some minimal light snow to give way to some afternoon sunshine and an accompanying milder southwest wind. Temperatures will approach 30 on the mountain and are likely to sneak above the freezing mark in lower lying valley locations. Enjoy the balmy temperatures because frigid temperatures are very, very incoming !
A widespread outbreak of arctic air in eastern North America will make its Vermont arrival on Thursday. Temperatures are likely to hover around 10 degrees on the mountain early Thursday before plummeting to near zero by evening. We have a favorable wind direction for Champlain powder on Thursday but the airmass is too stable to allow for even shallow convection. We thus should get bluebird conditions from midday onward and this should continue into Friday with lesser amounts of wind. Thanks to our fresh blanket of snow, both Friday and Saturday morning could see readings down around 15 or even 20 below but after Thursday, winds will not be a huge factor through the weekend. As far as snowfall is concerned, the dry period should extend from Thursday through Saturday. There's some risk for a decent snowfall in southern New England Saturday but this remains just a possibility even for them and for us it appears very unlikely. All that said, the Atlantic remains a source of relative warmth and even a small fuse has the capability of going bombs away. One such chance for this comes in the Sunday/Monday time frame as a clipper system arrives and attempts to gather steam along the NE coast. At the very least we should see some light snow out of this and a light accumulation before frigid temperatures are again reinforced Monday.
We don't expect the polar vortex to drop completely into the U.S. next week but it will get pretty close, swinging through central Quebec during the middle part of next week. With it comes a massive surge of chill that should arrive either late Tuesday or Wednesday (25th/26th) bringing with it the coldest temps we see this winter season and perhaps in a few years. Before the mother-load of cold arrives, another innocuous looking system could spread some snow into parts of New England and possibly strengthen into something bigger before quickly exiting.
The cold pattern, fueled by a softer Pacific ocean and strong ridging in western North America should carry us through the rest of January but there are some signs of softening as the first day of February arrives. The biggest change relates to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which is expected to take a positive turn by the end of next week. Ridging in western North America is also expected to shift back toward Alaska which should open the door for more storminess for the western ski resorts as the end of January arrives. The cold weather should relent by the very end of the month in New England but the pattern doesn't look mild thanks to the continuation of favorable jet stream conditions in the Pacific. A slight softening of this very amplified pattern will actually serve our big storm prospects well since a full-on arctic onslaught does have the propensity to suppress interior New England storminess.
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