A few inches Sunday night and a few more possible very early Tuesday but we've yet to lock our next big storm down though the potential is certainly there. New England has been in the line of arctic fire this January and is set to record the coldest winter month since the legendary February 2015. The average certainly was lowered by the widespread outbreak of 20 below temperatures that hit the valley Saturday morning. We had perfect conditions for the exceptionally cold morning with a strong arctic high pressure center ensuring clear skies and light winds atop the fresh blanket of last week's snow.
Tuesday's clipper isn't expected to develop into anything exceptional but there's enough moisture for a bit of snow beginning around midnight Tuesday and persisting off and on into the early dawn. After that we should be able to take advantage of some limited low level instability and procure a few more snow showers before cold and more stable air arrives by late afternoon. Snowfall accumulations will be in the 3-6 range and of the low density, elevation sensitive variety. Tuesday's temperatures may reach the 20's very briefly on the mountain but will again plummet back to sub-zero levels by Wednesday morning. We then can expect bluebird weather both Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday is blustery with temperatures hovering around zero during the day on the mountain and Thursday will start with readings near 20 below again but that sunshine will help boost temperatures up past 10 degrees during the afternoon.
I have no idea how plugged in any of my readers are to the weather twitter universe and all that it entails. In the winter there is no shortage of storm speculation and sharing of model output that is illustrating extreme outcomes. The upcoming weekend weather situation is one classic such example since various models have rather inconsistently advertised a blockbuster nor'easter around the time of Saturday, January 28th. The weather map around that time frame consists of some subtropical moisture off the coast and benign clipper system diving southeast in the polar jet. There are actually two polar impulses (one Friday and one Saturday) that will get a chance to detonate this potential storm. At the time of this blog post, it's Friday's clipper that is expected to perform the magic but most of the action stays offshore according to current model consensus. This has been a very fluid and ever-changing situation with model output showing a wide range of scenarios and only recently has there been a trend to steer the storm away from interior New England. Though we've got a less than 50 percent chance of scoring something big for the upcoming weekend (late Friday/Saturday), its certainly still well above zero so stay tuned. Yet another system later Sunday into Monday marks another snowfall possibility although this storm might stay well south of Vermont.
I've been at odds with a few very respected meteorologists in the northeast regarding the outlook in early February and maybe February in general. Actually, I am in agreement that temperatures modify somewhat but I am not expecting much above normal temperatures and think winter will maintain its grip on Vermont most of the time over the next several weeks. Forecasters suggesting a very warm February are keying in on the European Weekly model output and a combination of several teleconnection indices that will turn slightly unfavorable although as of this posting, it is only the NAO that is expected to be adverse in 2 weeks. For me, I see this as a good opportunity to take the Euro Weekly product head on. I am less excited to go head to head with Ryan Hanrahan who's a terrific TV Met out of Hartford, CT and is a great follow on twitter @ryanhanrahan and always has something of value to add to the social media weather discussion.
Speaking more on the long range, it appears temperatures will stay on the chilly side or at least close to normal through the middle part of next week (around Feb 2). At that point there's a chance a well organized system brings moisture and overrunning wintry precipitation to interior New England including significant snowfall. There's also a signal for warmer weather in the wake of this storm during the February 3rd and 4th period but this appears temporary and the magnitude of any such warmup is uncertain. Continued blocking north of the Eurasian continent will be a big force on the weather pattern globally and help keep arctic air very entrenched over North America in early February. Though some of this cold will shift west in two weeks, I fully expect some arctic chill to remain across the Great Lakes and New England and this is basis for my normalish non-torchy February outlook. We will soon find out.
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