Wintry weather dominates rest of week but another big thaw possible Monday March 8

The last update of February 2022 features some good and bad news. The good news involves a very wintry rest of the week with 2 rounds of light snowfall accompanied by temperatures more typical of mid-winter than early March. Certainly adds to what has been a very productive week with 15 inches falling between Friday's storm and Sunday's snow squalls. There's bad news however involving the incredibly pesky southeast ridge - a La Nina favorite. It looks potent enough in the March 7th or 8th timeline to cause another round of melting before cooler weather returns for the middle of next week. 

Some of the coldest air in the northern hemisphere will be positioned eastern Canada this week and Vermont is getting a taste of that Monday and another equally strong taste on Thursday and Friday. In between there are two weak weather systems that could bring some light snowfall to the mountains. The first, a clipper system, will bring clouds to northern Vermont Tuesday and some light snow beginning in the midday hours and persisting into the evening. Winds will become marginally favorable for some additional showers Tuesday night for a few hours leading us to a 3-5 inch, low density snowfall. Wednesday follows as a mostly dry day (with the exception of a few snow flurries) with intervals of both clouds and sun, but our second big shot of the aforementioned cold approaches late on Thursday in association with a hybrid clipper system. This means an additional round of light snowfall late Wednesday night into early Thursday (another 2-4 inch type event) with cold temperatures and strong northerly winds accompanying the clearing skies late Thursday. Temperatures could plummet to as low as -10 in a few spots early Friday before a heavy dose of early March sunshine boosts Friday afternoon readings into the 20's. 

I think we can ward off the strong push of mild air through the weekend. Saturday appears dry and mostly sub-freezing with early sunshine giving way to clouds and though Sunday's temperatures are likely to climb above freezing, they should only do so by a few degrees. On Monday however, there are indications of a very intense push of milder air. It remains to be seen if we get a full unmitigated torch with 60-plus temperatures and wind or some weaker version that might include more clouds and low visibility but with temperatures that are less than excessive. 

The weather pattern has some promise beyond the March 8th, but temperatures do not appear especially chilly between March 9th-13th. Arctic air will remain on the North American continent but reposition itself over western  and central Canada allowing for the continuation of spring like temperatures along the immediate east coast and more above freezing afternoons across interior New England. This is not unusual for the time of year, but it does underscore the importance of getting a more optimal pattern in the transition months if you still want snow. Blocking in Alaska will put pressure on this arctic air to push southeastward but it would certainly help if the Pacific cooperates. There are continued indications that it will by March 12th-14th but this process appears slow and this is probably what bothered me the most as I looked at all the data both Sunday and today (Monday). 

A straight-up, cold, 10-16 inch snow beginning at dawn Friday and ending in the evening

 It's nice to not have to begin a blog post by talking about mild weather or rain; instead, its a nice looking cold snow now right at our doorstep. It's also remained a very straight-forward and consistent forecast over the last several days. I was getting a little nervous early yesterday when models appeared to be taking a few steps to the south but that has since reversed with a high resolution data and global models converging on a scenario Friday that paints the southern two thirds of Vermont and all of the Berkshires in a sweet spot for snow. 

Details come easy with this event. Snow begins within an hour of 7 am Friday, persists through the ski day at varying intensities and tapers off close to 7 pm. A 12-hour cold snow with temperatures holding steady in the low teens throughout the day and winds blowing at a steady but not especially intense 10-20 mph clip from the northeast. With the tick back to the north that we saw with some of the global models overnight, I think we can raise the lower end of our accumulation range up to 10 inches with a top end remaining at 16". A beautiful and very welcome cold snow, and likely the third best event of the season but not epic. 

A healthy dose of late February sunshine will help lift some morning sub-zero readings back into the 20's on Saturday. We can then expect more clouds on Sunday and a period of light afternoon snow capable of producing a light 1-3 inch accumulation. Sunday will be considerably more windy than Saturday with westerly winds gusting beyond 30 mph, especially at the summits. The clipper system responsible for the light snow Sunday afternoon will also usher in a temporary round of bitterly cold temperatures to finish the month. Readings will fall back below zero Monday morning only this time we will have the added impact of strong winds and daytime temperatures on the mountain are likely to stay in the single numbers and struggle into the teens in valley locations. 

An expansive jet stream ridge over Alaska is likely to hold large sway on Vermont's weather during the first half of March, keeping arctic cold ever-present in eastern Canada and keeping the chances of winter weather and even a significant winter storm in play. The La Nina regime we experienced for much of February though is also not expected to completely die off but rather weaken. There are indications of a persistent cut-off in the southwestern U.S. and a weakened warm weather ridge in the southeastern United States. Though this set up favors below normal temperatures across northern New England we could still see a spring-like interlude or two and this is exactly how I expect the March 1st through 7th period to play out. Cold weather on February 28th will linger into Tuesday when some additional snow from an aged Pacific-Northwest system is possible. A storm in the later part of the week appears less likely over the past two days but colder weather will be reinforced once before we are potentially hit with one of those spring-like interludes around the time of the first full weekend of March. 

As I have mentioned previously, any warm weather is likely be short-lived. Both colder weather and the possibility for more snow is favored in the aforementioned setup and I fully expect talk of more snow in the days leading up to the Ides of March (historically always a favored time frame for a storm for completely unknown reasons).

Another day closer to a return to winter and a cold Friday snow !

We got through Tuesday's ski day without any rain, allowing skiers to enjoy the milder temperatures and soft snow. We even got a few hours of surprise sunshine in the morning. By the time some of you read this update, much of the rain will have come and gone, falling over the course of a few hours Tuesday evening and amounting to what appears to be less than a half an inch with temperatures hovering around 40 degrees. Wednesday continues to look mostly dry and most of the ski day appears quite mild with temperatures spiking close to 50 degrees in the valley and remaining in the 40's over the mountains until early afternoon. A strong arctic airmass will begin to envelop the region late Wednesday afternoon and temperatures will plummet, falling quickly below freezing by as early as 4pm on the mountain and soon after across lower elevations. 

Cold high pressure in Quebec will supply interior New England with a blustery and cold bluebird day Thursday and it also sets the stage for Friday's storm which will provide a cold snow to all over Vermont. This appears to be a very straight-forward storm and forecast. The low pressure system responsible has shifted slightly south with an initial area of low pressure tracking into northern Pennsylvania and a second low forming and then consolidating south of Long Island. This does place the MRV on the northern end of the heaviest snow and it also means that places like Stowe, Smuggs and Jay might see a lighter accumulation. For Mad River and Sugarbush however, I very much like what I see with snow beginning around daybreak and persisting into the evening. Total snowfall across our high country still appears to be in the 8-16 range with slightly lesser amounts across valley locations. The sweetspot for snow does appear to be in the southern half of Vermont for now but a little extra latitude shouldn't hurt us materially and allows a late northward shift to benefit the region. As for temperatures, I continue to expect low teens on the mountain and again the Iphone isn't telling me thus and I fully expect it will eventually. 

Some sunshine returns for Saturday accompanying temperatures near the 20-degree mark. Clouds will then advance into the region Saturday night and some light snow is possible for a few hours early on Sunday. A building ridge over Alaska will become a rather dominant player in the weather across North America in early March but in the short term, it will help to allow for a large buildup of cold over eastern Canada. Models remain somewhat unsure how far south this cold advances into the US Sunday and Monday but interior New England appears well-positioned to get a big chunk of it beginning Sunday evening following a light accumulation of snow. Sunday night into Monday should be brutally cold with temperatures falling below zero Monday morning and struggling to reach the teens during the day. 

Hopes for a coastal storm on Sunday night into Monday February 28th have dimmed and we can expect cold and very dry weather to prevail through Tuesday. We do have a better signal for a storm in the middle to later part of next week as the cold weather modifies and March begins. There is some potential for a bigger event here but we will need to retain some access to that aforementioned cold in eastern Canada. To be specific, the timing for this would be in the Wednesday, March 2nd to Friday March 4th window. 

In the longer range, ensembles have established some consensus for a warmer period and potentially some spring-like temperatures around the time frame of the first full weekend of March. I expect the weather to again turn colder by March 8th however and it may stay that way for a while thanks to the continued strength of the Alaskan ridge and the improving situation in the Pacific. The European Ensembles are throwing more weight to this notion by indicating an AO sign switch around this time frame but we have yet to see total support for this. Either way, winter appears far from done in Vermont .

A sharp return to colder weather Thursday followed by some significant snowfall for Friday

All things considered, winter weather enthusiasts should take this update with some optimism. Much of it stemming from the fact Friday's snow event is shaping up to be our third biggest of the season with a somewhat wintry looking pattern to follow as we head into early March. The situation late this Tuesday into Wednesday is hardly ideal, but we've endured worse gut punches in the past. We may be staggering but are still standing and will live to fight another round!

The Tuesday/Wednesday thaw should play out something like this. Following a period of inconsequential light and wet snow Monday night, Tuesday should feature clouds and some occasional drizzle or light rain along with wretched visibility. It should remain socked-in enough that temperatures are likely stuck in the thirties and a few areas might even see some freezing rain or drizzle early in the day. The heavier rain then moves in Tuesday evening but temperatures and dewpoints should remain in the thirties across the high country and we can expect amounts to be in the half an inch category by the time the rain stops before dawn on Wednesday. It's a crappy situation that deserves no sugarcoating, but we should be able to avoid the trifecta of snow-eating elements that include rain, high dewpoints and wind. Wednesday remains a very warm looking day, but it appears to be a mostly dry one with temperatures reaching the low 50's in the valley locations and 40's on the mountain. The wind will eat some additional snow on Wednesday but dewpoints should remain in the 30's. A sharp cold front marking incoming arctic air officially puts an end to a lousy stretch of winter weather and marks what now looks to be the beginning of a long stretch of sub-freezing weather. 

Thursday is very bluebird but also blustery and needless to say very firm with temperatures hovering around 10 on the mountain and struggling to reach 20 in the valley. The bluebird weather is presented to us courtesy of a very strong high pressure that will set up shop in Quebec by early Friday and it is this feature that is helping to fuel what now appears to be a very healthy snow producing weather system just ahead of the last weekend of the month. The low pressure center responsible is not a strong one but will head toward the Ohio Valley Friday evening and from there transition to the southern New England coastline. It's important to figure out exactly where but nearly the entire range of possible tracks places northern Vermont in some decent snowfall during the day on Friday. Again, it appears to be a very solid event but not an epic one and accumulations across the high country will be in the 8-16 inch category with lesser amounts in valley areas. Another aspect of this storm we can be relatively certain about is the snow consistency. Again, courtesy of the strong arctic high in Quebec, this will be a cold snow, whatever falls and temperatures should remain in the teens or perhaps even lower. I've noticed that is not what my iphone is telling me, so probably worth pointing out that I expect Friday's high temperature forecast to drop in the coming days. The ensuing last weekend of February appears chilly but not brutally chilly with some limited sunshine and nothing more than flurries. High temperatures should reach the low 20's both days after starting close to zero. 

A pretty large jet amplification is expected to bring a reinforcing surge of colder weather around February 28th and there have been hints of some coastal storm development Sunday night and into that day but  nothing conclusive. The cold weather between Feb 28 and March 3rd, at least cold relative to average, does look rather conclusive and I would hope we can squeeze out some additional natural snowfall in that period. A strong jet stream ridge over Alaska is one of the strongest features on the northern hemisphere weather board and is the big culprit behind winter's comeback. This feature is expected to remain in place for a while with the Pacific gradually becoming more supportive by around March 7th. There are signs of a period of warmer temperatures around the time of the first full weekend of March but I expect any milder air to be short-lived with both colder weather and the chances for snowfall returning by the week beginning March 8th. 

Halftime intermission of this forgettable stretch of winter weather, but help may be on the way late next week

 In the wake of the basebox flood, we did manage to receive what appears to be a few inches of Champlain powder. Not the consolation prize we were looking for after yesterday, but when the book is closed on winter '21-'22, it will be the glaring lack of instability snow, in almost any form, that will headline the below average snowfall we are on pace to receive. It won't be easy placing an accurate finger on why this happened (I assure you, I will try) except to say that parking deep pools of low level instability over interior New England for any length of time has not been a personality trait of the current cold season. 

The dark side of La Nina will continue to make its presence known early next week, but we do have a winter reprieve this weekend with some additional assistance from the Champlain powder early Friday.  Though clearing skies will support single digit temperatures Friday night, light southerly flow will boost temperatures back into the 20's very quickly on Saturday even as clouds increase in advance of a clipper system. Actually, its a mistake to call any southerly flow light in the MRV as winds can really rip down from the Breadloaf Wildnerness area when blowing from that direction. The clipper will bring a little snow our way but it will all come very quickly and end just as quickly in the form of 1-2 big snow squalls and some additional snow showers and flurries Saturday night. We need more,but I can't promise anything more than 1-4" and I only picked the 4" because it rhymes. Less changeable weather follows for Sunday in the form of some early sunshine and some afternoon high cloudiness. Not total bluebird weather, but still very good visibility and with winter-like but tolerable near 20 degree temperatures. 

The early part of next week is just an ugly mess and believe me I take no joy wasting minutes of my day blogging about it. Though arctic air is going to make every effort to maintain some grip on northern Vermont, the overall pattern is so god awful with so much warmth pushing northward, it will be very difficult to avoid another torchy day or period. Monday we are likely just stuck under clouds and a period of snow is still possible Monday night before mid-level warmth and eventually every level warmth consumes us by the middle of the day Tuesday. Another round of significant rainfall (around 1/2 inch again) is possible during the back half of the day and there is a chance of some ice in between any snow Monday night and the rain later Tuesday. Temperatures again look potentially excessive late Tuesday into Tuesday night and again they could be accompanied by the snow eating combination of wind and high dewpoints. We can avoid some of this if we can shift Tuesday's storm significantly southward, but the strength of the southeast ridge appears very dominant and awfully tough to overcome. 

The news does get dramatically better late next week. There are signs and lots of them now, that the return of arctic air combined with the beaten-down, but not entirely defeated southeast ridge will help spin up what appears to be a nice looking storm system in the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday. This feature will speed its way northeastward and has all the necessary ingredients to produce a decent synoptic snow across interior New England so long as the storm track cooperates. I don't see a 2-foot return to glory here but it does have the potential to turn into a modest 5-15" type event. 

The weather pattern looks decent as we approach March with ridging in western North America likely keeping enough cold weather around. As mentioned in the last update, the situation in the Pacific should gradually improve though I would underscore the gradual part. The MJO appears to be on the move and telegraphing a potentially favorable period but not until the 2nd week in March. Ridging in Alaska will dent the +AO situation but will fail to turn it negative and the +NAO remains an issue for the foreseeable future. A +PNA is a necessary first step back however since defeating or weakening the La Nina driven ridge in the southeast US is absolutely paramount.  

Not much love for winter weather lovers through next Wednesday but the pattern does improve thereafter

 We are in the midst of a worst case La Nina scenario consisting of plenty of arctic air on the North American continent but an absolutely wretched jet stream configuration driven by several bad weather pattern fundamentals. The multiple rounds of sub-zero mornings earlier this week will fail to make a dividend payment and the cold will give way to a short-lived but nasty thaw Thursday. Another albeit, softer period of cold weather over the holiday weekend might again get pushed out by milder weather early next week. I have many bad La Nina memories of weather just like this. Certain years we seem to hit multiple home runs but when we don't, this is often what we are left with. 

The area of low pressure responsible for Thursday's big mild push will track from the Red River Valley of the southern plains straight to the Stowe/Smuggs Mt Mansfield region of the Green Mountains. The track of this storm has indeed shifted south, but not enough and we are out of time. Portions of the St Lawrence Valley on northward, Montreal included, will see a nice snow from this weather system and Jay Peak will see rain turn to some ice and 3-6 inches of snow Friday. The MRV will also seem some ice followed by 1-3 inches of snow Friday but this follows a very mild Thursday with wind and temperatures in excess of 50 degrees in valley locations and 40's on the mountain. We may see a few peaks of sunshine during the day Thursday but most of the day will be cloudy with sporadic light rain. A heavier period of rain can be expected Thursday night before a low level push of cold weather chances precipitation to the aforementioned period of ice and then snow. This is not a worst-case scenario thaw Thursday, but it's got all the variables that can eat away at snow including rain (over a half inch), wind and high dewpoints.

There isn't much about the weather over the next week, through February 23rd to be excited about. If you do get desperate however, you can look forward to some light snow from a clipper system over the weekend. For once, we aren't entirely in the wrong quadrant of this moisture hungry feature and we can thus expect occasional light snow most of Saturday and 1-3 inches. It looks better farther north where a favorable wind direction off the still partially unfrozen Lake Champlain should enhance a bit of additional snow Saturday evening. Sunday follows with some sunshine, excellent visibility and afternoon temperatures well into the 20's. 

Arctic air is desperately trying to undercut a peaking and grotesque looking southeast U.S. jet stream ridge early next week. I am not sure grotesque does justice to how bad the weather pattern looks at jet stream level but having said all that, it still doesn't appear like the MRV will get a spring-like torch. The record breaking temperatures will likely stay in the Mid-Atlantic, Virginia and portions of the Carolina's. Instead, northern Vermont is likely to see several days of clouds and multiple periods of precipitation. Some of this could fall in the form of overrunning snow  Monday but additional rainfall or ice will be difficult to avoid in the period in between Monday night and Wednesday. We can also expect several days of lousy visibility early next week underscoring the value of Sunday's weather. As the weather pattern begins to turn less unfavorable late next week, we can hope that one final wave of low pressure riding along the clashing temperature boundary results in some snowfall but it's not worth keeping hopes too high relating to any weather through next Wednesday. 

I wouldn't say the same about the weather beyond next Wednesday where the light for potential winter weather is shining brighter. In the last update I made mention of the strengthening area of ridging in western North America late in February. Now it appears the Pacific, which will spend the next several day in a very angry state, will neutralize by the last full weekend of February.  I don't see any clear indications of a storm and at face value the weather pattern appears a little dry but I would expect an extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures accompanied by at least some light snowfall to carry us from the last several day of February into early March.

Mild air, wind and rain appear more likely late Thursday and weather pattern appears fundamentally bad for winter wx until middle of next week

Though it's pretty cold across Vermont this Valentine's Day, winter weather lovers such as myself are being forced to gaze beyond the middle of next week for some pattern relief. Over the next 7 days or so, it does not appear we can overcome the overwhelming amount of mild fundamentals conspiring against us. I have to say though, we are giving it a decent effort and have pulled ourselves to within 100 miles of pulling off another amazing escape late this week. Montreal, about 130 or miles, north-northwest of us, has an outlook Thursday into Friday that looks very similar to what happened in northern Vermont on February 3rd and 4th and it's happening on the same days of the week. 

The high pressure center responsible for the recent outbreak of cold weather will produce a bluebird day on Tuesday with the sunshine helping to boost temperatures toward 20 degrees by the end of the ski day. In spite of more cloudiness Wednesday, a milder breeze will boost temperatures up past the freezing mark during the afternoon and this is when the trouble begins. A strong area of low pressure will take shape near the Red River Valley of TX/OK early on Thursday and speed northeastward passing somewhere between the eastern Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont very early Friday. As mentioned we need to push this storm another 100 miles further south and unless we do that, a very strong, very mild push of air out in front of this area of low pressure will push temperatures into the 50's on Thursday and this is followed by a night of wind, rain and 40-plus dewpoints Thursday night. I think the northern half of our state can see precipitation end as some snow early Friday with the heaviest accumulations occurring at Canadian border  locations such as Jay Peak with lesser amounts as one heads south on Rte 100. I've seen stronger and longer duration thaws in Vermont and with certainly heavier rain. Preliminary estimates are of an event capable of producing about a half inch of rain mostly Thursday night; but again, the combination of wind, rain and high dewpoints will do some noticeable damage to our snowpack which already suffered a little from the wind and mild temperatures this past Saturday. 

A softer bout of arctic air will envelop the region for the President's Day holiday weekend and there is a weak clipper system that could spread some very light snow to northern Vermont on Saturday. I would not expect any heavy snow in Vermont through Monday the 21st however and our best chance at any accumulation is likely on the back end of Friday's event. Temperatures will be tolerable through the weekend with afternoon readings in the 20's and morning temperatures in the single digits except for Monday which appears to be a bit milder throughout the day. 

The strong and very La Nina-esque southeast ridge in the jet stream is responsible for the problems we are encountering late this week and also poses a threat to our weather for the Tuesday/Wednesday, Feb 22-23rd time frame. Arctic air is pushing back a bit and we stand a chance of salvaging a little winter weather, albeit with above average temperatures. Fundamentally however, it is a very ugly combination of teleconnection indices over the next 7-9 days. By the middle of next week and beyond, we begin to get some help from the PNA, the index measuring the strength of ridging across western part of the North American continent. Ensembles indicate a strengthening area of colder weather in eastern Canada pushing south and mitigating the strength of the southeast U.S. jet stream by Thursday, Feb 24. This provides some hope we can make something happen toward the very end of February and into early March.

Still some hope we can mitigate a thaw late next week but the pattern overall appears mild for the duration of February following some early next week chill

Arctic air is set to make a temporary return to Vermont late this weekend following the passage of another clipper system on Saturday. I am not optimistic about performing on snowfall from this system. The southwest wind is not a great wind direction in terms of receiving snowfall for several reasons. The most obvious one being the milder flow which in Saturday's case will be especially mild in valley locations given the airmass is Pacific in nature. Temperatures in the valley's will be well into the 40's and any precipitation in the morning could very well fall as rain or just mixed rain and snow. Well up on the mountain we could see an inch or two of snow but even this accumulation might be confined to above the mid-station. The cold front will sweep through the MRV late in the afternoon and send temperatures back below the freezing mark during the evening with some accompanying snow flurries. Maybe we can squeeze another inch out on the mountain Saturday evening but it does not appear especially unstable with the arrival of arctic chill. Models are indicating some cloudiness Sunday but I think storminess off the New England coast will help suck some of that overcast eastward and and allow for some sunshine and decent visibility especially in the afternoon to accompany the near 10 degree temperatures. I think the milder southwest breeze on Saturday (near 20 mph) will be a bit stronger than the cold northwest breeze (10 mph) on Sunday . 

Cold temperatures will prevail over Vermont through Wednesday morning with the coldest daytime temperatures of 5-10 degrees occurring on Monday. Both Monday and Tuesday should feature decent amounts of sunshine, but there is a weak polar jet disturbance that is likely to spread clouds and may bring some light snow to northern Vermont early Tuesday.  We remain fearful of the milder push of temperatures late next week and this should mean more cloudiness on Wednesday as temperatures attempt to reach the freezing mark during the afternoon. 

At face value, the situation does not look good late next week. There is a pretty clear consensus of model data indicating an intense surge of warm weather and some wind and rain in the Thursday/Friday time frame. 50-degree temperatures and some 40-degree dewpoints would be possible in this scenario and when this is combined with any wind, it can eat snow at a very efficient rate. With that said, the setup does show some similarities to to what occurred on February 3rd/4th with the key difference being that the storm track is appears 100-150 miles farther north. As models have trended milder in southern New England late next week, they have also moved to solidify the the presence of arctic chill over much of a Quebec with the storm in question tracking south of the St Lawrence Valley and possibly producing a big snowfall in cities such as Montreal. We are no longer asking for a huge shift in the data to produce a drastically different result late next week. 100 mile shift to the south or even just a flatter jet stream setup could greatly alter the results and change the forecast much like what happened early in the month. Not going to call it likely but there is hope of another escape and I do expect models to shift and at least partially mitigate what they are now indicating to be a significant thaw. 

A return to colder weather can be expected for the President's Day holiday weekend and I've seen a few the operational models paint interior New England with some snowfall over that stretch. Again however, the arctic chill appears temporary in nature and is expected to give way to milder temperatures early in the last full week of February which is a holiday week for many. None of the teleconnection indicators appear to be on our side in late February but the biggest concern to me is the angrier Pacific driven by what appears to be a mild MJO phase we are plunging into.

Some light snowfall expected through the weekend but milder pattern will put us on the defensive late next week

Arctic air has made a northward retreat over the North American continent allowing Pacific air to rule our roost and ensure that temperatures for the duration of the month will turn out substantially milder than they were in January. We will get the occasional blast of arctic chill but its doubtful we will see a sustainable period of below normal temperatures until at least early March. Specifically as it relates to skiing the hard earned deep snow in northern Vermont there are a different set of questions we need to concern ourselves with. Can we still get a big storm in this milder weather pattern ? Are we going to get a sustained snow-eating torch ? And worse, will it rain ? 

It is unlikely we see any substantial snow over the course of the next week but temperatures up on the mountain continue to appear sub-freezing through Wednesday, February 16 in spite of some milder afternoons in the low lying valleys. We still have the two clippers lined up over the next 4 days and there appears to be a bit more moisture with the first (at least verses earlier expectations). It also appears to be one of those situations where we could see some mixed precipitation in valley locations while a period of accumulating snow falls across the high country, beginning in the pre-dawn hours Thursday and persisting through about early afternoon. I don't like forecasting hefty amounts with this type of prevailing flow (southwesterly winds) but 2-4 inches is not to aggressive so lets go with it. The snow may be a little wet near the base but I would expect a more powdery consistency up above 2000 feet. Friday is a dry day with clouds and a few intervals of sunshine. Temperatures should start in the teens but rise toward the freezing mark by the middle of the afternoon. The 2nd clipper on Saturday appears to be a similar setup to Thursday with slightly less moisture. Again, we aren't in a great quadrant but there is some limited moisture so a period of light snowfall is likely a small accumulation possible. This 2nd clipper also marks one of those occasional arctic intrusions discussed above. Winds will shift during the afternoon allowing us to tap into a limited supply of moisture from Lake Champlain. Instability is lacking however and I would not expect a big accumulation late in the day Saturday. 

We appear to be locked into a cold period between Sunday Feb 13th and the 15th and we continue to watch for the possibility of the formation of a storm along the coast Sunday night into Valentine's Day Monday. The notion of the storm looks better as of Thursday but the pattern appears too progressive to allow anything that forms near the Virginia Tidewater to make a needed northward turn. Some snow is possible well to our south Sunday night, but the chances of a serious interior New England impact continue to look low. Every coastal is worth watching this winter however because you can just never completely count them out. 

I am more concerned about a possible albeit temporary thaw late next week around the time frame of Thursday, February 17th. There's been a stronger signal in the model data for what appears to be a 24-36 hour stretch of very mild temperatures, wind and some rainfall. If taken at face value, the results would not be good for any part of New England, even northern Maine. With that said, the type of event being portrayed by the aggregation of model data is not something that is very typical in northern New England in February, it is more likely in December or early January. Additionally, ensembles continue to indicate the existence of a decent area of cold in central and northern Quebec so I could certainly see models shifting again to a more mitigated thaw. Obviously we would love another shift to a February 4 scenario but that's a tough ask though for you die hards out there, it can't hurt to try. 

Beyond the later part of next week appears to feature another temporary round of arctic air for the weekend of the 19th/20th persisting into President's Day week followed again by a milder push of temperatures by February 23rd or so. The teleconnection indicators have conspired against us for the later part of February. None appear strong enough to drive arctic air entirely off the continent, but certainly enough to make a challenge to maintain winter in Vermont. 

Mostly quiet weather prevails through the weekend across northern Vermont

 Got a rather quiet period of winter weather coming through the weekend in northern Vermont and this is certainly a change from the very active period of weather we saw in the second half of January and into early February. An area of low pressure is expected to strengthen off shore into a modest storm but is still expected to pass 50-75 miles east of Cape Cod leaving us mostly out of reach for heavy snowfall. We can still expect a period of light snow very early Tuesday thanks to an associated inverted trough feature and some of this precipitation may fall as light rain or freezing rain if you are west of the Green Mountain spine. Temperatures in the mountains appear cold enough to support a very light snowfall with a dusting to as much as 2 inches likely. If the storm tracks over the Cape somehow, we could see more but models aren't typically that wrong within 36 hours of the event. 

Pacific air remains poised to envelop most of New England for a period of almost 5 days beginning Tuesday and ending this upcoming Saturday. Though temperatures are expected to remain sub-freezing on the mountain, we could see readings approach the 40-degree mark on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday afternoon's. Even if readings do creep above the freezing mark at higher elevations, the low dewpoints should keep the snow consistency on the powdery side through the week. The two clipper systems still appear on the weather map with the first passing late Thursday and the second this Saturday. Consistent with the tradition of 2021-22, both systems don't appear especially snowy in northern Vermont. We are again in the wrong jet quadrant for both and will be limited to a few light snow showers or flurries Thursday and a better chance for snow showers and maybe a snow squall late Saturday. In the case of both features, substantial accumulations should not be expected. 

Colder arctic air is expected to make a return late Saturday and into Sunday and the chill is expected to linger through the early part of the week beginning Valentine's Day. Occasionally models have shown a big winter storm developing near the baroclinic zone near Tidewater region of Virginia but this has not gotten a ton of support as was mentioned late in the update late on Saturday. I can say this however as a way of expanding on the discussion about clipper impotence. Storm activity along the coast have been generally under-predicted by models this winter and there have been several instances where significant impacts go largely unnoticed in our favorite simulations until we are within a few days. In summary, it's been a "sell the clipper, buy the coastal storm" type of winter. With this in mind, it would not be wise to rule out a Valentine's Day coastal storm.

Beyond Tuesday, we lose the support of every teleconnection index we track. The Pacific continues to look mildly irritated, the AO/NAO are both positive and we lose the support of our last line of defense - the PNA or western North American ridge. As one might expect, the door will be open for a push of milder temperatures toward the middle or end of next week and we may very well get one capable of bringing a thaw to Vermont. All that said, none of these teleconnection indices turn deeply unfavorable and will instead remain only mildly unfavorable. Given that data, I think ensembles have responded appropriately by suggesting another milder period of temperatures late next week but are not yet convinced those temperatures are that excessive. A few runs of the Euro Op have produced excessive temps late next week but this hasn't found support in the model's accompanying ensemble members. I might point out that the Euro Op was also producing an occasional torch late last week and we ended up with over 20 inches of snow and it wasn't alone. Ensembles hedged on the setup for late last week and are hedging again late next week and it has now been noted in the blog.

Our outlook is beginning to get hit with more challenges but the next 10 days look just fine

Hope everyone got a chance to enjoy a piece of what turned out to be one of best storms in a few years for not only MRG, but the whole of northern Vermont ski country. It's the exception as opposed to the rule to see snow that deep without a significant amount of wind and it made for some sensational skiing. Moving forward, we will be contending with a stronger Pacific jet stream and little to no high latitude blocking mechanisms. We can still see some transient cold but from a big picture standpoint, temperatures should be noticeably less chilly over the next few weeks than they were in January. In spite of this, we have a nearly frozen Lake Erie, some remaining support from a eastern Pacific/western North America jet stream ridge (+PNA) and a lot of lingering cold in Canada that will have retreated but will remain a fixture on the continent for the forseeable future. So, I think we can make a decent living in this setup so long as the Pacific doesn't get too angry and the support from the +PNA doesn't vanish. I want to expand on the latter question in the last paragraph because it's an imporant one given where some of the ensembles are spitting out 2 weeks from now. 

Post Friday's storm, it did seem like a period of quieter weather was upon us but we are watching for the possibility of more snow from a system moving up the Atlantic coast late Monday into early Tuesday. At this point, the arctic high responsible for the very sub-zero temps Sunday morning (and delicious bluebird weather Sunday day) will begin to loosen its grip on interior New England. The eastward advance of Pacific air will help this along, but before we get any milder days, the storm off the coast might have enough in it to throw some moisture back our way Monday night into Tuesday. A heavy snowfall appears to be a reach but its a system worth watching, especially if the storm in question turns out to be stronger and tracks closer to the coast which would hardly be a surprise given the continued warmth of the coastal Atlantic. The rest of the mid-week period does appear milder but should remain sub-freezing on the mountain.  Pacific air typically dominates the climate of our favorite western ski areas in Colorado, Utah and especially California and it's a big reason why they don't often see the bone chilling cold Vermont can see and has seen in recent weeks. Well the Tuesday to Thursday period is a little taste of western ski resort life. 

Speaking of Thursday, the first of two clippers should impact Vermont and bring the chance for more light snow. I am putting a disclaimer on this statement because the notion of a clipper this year has been almost laughable. I mean, it's there on a model 5, 7, or 10 days out and then gradually crumbles to dust once the forecast period in question gets closer. It has not been the year of the clipper in New England and it has gotten some notice how limited this kind of activity has been. Judah Cohen had some interesting thoughts in his blog a few weeks ago about what might happen to the Alberta Clipper in a climate changed world. I don't want to get into the weeds on that topic now but it is important to note how glaringly impotent the clipper has been in terms of producing snowfall in Vermont this winter. Yet again, two decent looking clippers appear in the forecast over the next week with the first, as mentioned potentially bringing snowfall Thursday and the second bringing just the chance for snow over the weekend. It's certainly worth mentioning the chance for snow but also worth mentioning the reason for that chance and the fact that banking on snow from clippers this year has been a bad bet. Weather systems from the Gulf or Atlantic have dominated the action, at least so far. 

The critical question about the +PNA hangs over the week beginning Valentine's Day. We have the support of the PNA through the weekend ending the 13th but European and Canadian ensembles shift the ridge in western North America westward allowing cold weather and storminess to prevail in the mountains out west while milder temperatures push up the east coast. The American Ensemble packages dissents on this question and even seemingly more adverse solutions are keeping the pattern flat enough to allow cold air to remain in eastern Canada and to keep the door ajar for more snowfall across interior New England. I might be more pessimistic given this data but the fact that we placed some ice on the Great Lakes and our jet in the Pacific is only mildly irritated as opposed to really angry should keep winter alive in Vermont. We also have another 10 days of sub-freezing mountain temps at least to enjoy our recent bounty. I did notice the Euro op producing the bomb along the east coast around Valentine's Day but this does not have a ton of support,

Mother Nature's "make up call" falling into line with models converging on 10-20 by Friday morning in the MRV

 We've had some bad misses this year and have underperformed on snowfall this past January in spite of some very cold temperatures, but if we can turn this remarkably bad  jet stream currently into a big snow event, it will be a triumph that is hard to understate or perhaps mother nature's "make-up call". Either way, the strong push of undercutting arctic cold that will ultimately produce a zone of heavy overrunning snow is a stunning turn, because it's not just snow, its the good powdery stuff, at least by Friday morning. 

The details go like this. We've still got a mild day Wednesday but 35-40 can be handled just fine and temperatures should hover near the freezing mark through much of Wednesday night. And this is the extent of the thaw that once looked potentially pretty threatening. Yes, we could see a period of light rain or freezing rain within a few hours of dawn Thursday, but this will amount to a few hundreths of an inch at most. By mid morning at the latest, our vertical temperature profiles support snow even with temperatures continuing to hover near the freezing mark. Most of the snow that falls Thursday will be pretty light, but still is likely to amount to 1-3 inches by evening and this is when the real fun begins. An organized wave of low pressure is expected to push north from the Gulf Coast early Thursday and bring heavier snowfall to Vermont Thursday evening well after the ski day. I've been nervous to go all in on this event because the cold, very dry airmass to the north clashing with an intense ridge leaves just a narrow zone of heavy snowfall, yet in spite of this, we appear to be in a very good spot. I point this out because a shift, north or south could still alter the forecast but the consensus right now is gold with a low end of snowfall being 8 inches Thursday night and a high end, if everything goes right of close to 20. Temperatures will be in the high 20's Thursday evening, but will drop into the teens early Friday as arctic air will be quick to clear things out and produce a bluebird day atop all that powder. We can expect a cold breeze Friday with temperatures near 10 on the mountain. 

Bitterly cold air will strengthen its grip on northern Vermong Saturday with a  few snow flurries mixed with some sunshine. Temperatures will struggle to reach the single numbers after starting sub-zero. Sunday is a bit more comfortable with temps climbing up past 20 with the help of an energized dose of February sunshine. There have been hints of a coastal system in the late Sunday into Monday time frame with the impact confined to southern New England and points south. It's worth watching this feature, but an interior New England impact from this appears unlikely.

The outlook over the next two weeks is decent. The jet stream in the Pacific will tighten next week and flood much of the nation with Pacific air. Fortunately this happens with the eastern Pacific/western North America ridge still present. The cold weather should hang tough in Vermont through Tuesday but temperatures in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame appear capable of sneaking up past the freezing mark in the valley though sub-freezing upper mountain temps should remain. Multiple clipper systems could also bring some snowfall to Vermont with the 2nd potentially getting energized by the coastal Atlantic before bringing a return to colder weather by the weekend of February 12th and 13th. There's good support on the ensembles for a decent period of cold through Valentine's Day and a few days beyond.