Our outlook is beginning to get hit with more challenges but the next 10 days look just fine

Hope everyone got a chance to enjoy a piece of what turned out to be one of best storms in a few years for not only MRG, but the whole of northern Vermont ski country. It's the exception as opposed to the rule to see snow that deep without a significant amount of wind and it made for some sensational skiing. Moving forward, we will be contending with a stronger Pacific jet stream and little to no high latitude blocking mechanisms. We can still see some transient cold but from a big picture standpoint, temperatures should be noticeably less chilly over the next few weeks than they were in January. In spite of this, we have a nearly frozen Lake Erie, some remaining support from a eastern Pacific/western North America jet stream ridge (+PNA) and a lot of lingering cold in Canada that will have retreated but will remain a fixture on the continent for the forseeable future. So, I think we can make a decent living in this setup so long as the Pacific doesn't get too angry and the support from the +PNA doesn't vanish. I want to expand on the latter question in the last paragraph because it's an imporant one given where some of the ensembles are spitting out 2 weeks from now. 

Post Friday's storm, it did seem like a period of quieter weather was upon us but we are watching for the possibility of more snow from a system moving up the Atlantic coast late Monday into early Tuesday. At this point, the arctic high responsible for the very sub-zero temps Sunday morning (and delicious bluebird weather Sunday day) will begin to loosen its grip on interior New England. The eastward advance of Pacific air will help this along, but before we get any milder days, the storm off the coast might have enough in it to throw some moisture back our way Monday night into Tuesday. A heavy snowfall appears to be a reach but its a system worth watching, especially if the storm in question turns out to be stronger and tracks closer to the coast which would hardly be a surprise given the continued warmth of the coastal Atlantic. The rest of the mid-week period does appear milder but should remain sub-freezing on the mountain.  Pacific air typically dominates the climate of our favorite western ski areas in Colorado, Utah and especially California and it's a big reason why they don't often see the bone chilling cold Vermont can see and has seen in recent weeks. Well the Tuesday to Thursday period is a little taste of western ski resort life. 

Speaking of Thursday, the first of two clippers should impact Vermont and bring the chance for more light snow. I am putting a disclaimer on this statement because the notion of a clipper this year has been almost laughable. I mean, it's there on a model 5, 7, or 10 days out and then gradually crumbles to dust once the forecast period in question gets closer. It has not been the year of the clipper in New England and it has gotten some notice how limited this kind of activity has been. Judah Cohen had some interesting thoughts in his blog a few weeks ago about what might happen to the Alberta Clipper in a climate changed world. I don't want to get into the weeds on that topic now but it is important to note how glaringly impotent the clipper has been in terms of producing snowfall in Vermont this winter. Yet again, two decent looking clippers appear in the forecast over the next week with the first, as mentioned potentially bringing snowfall Thursday and the second bringing just the chance for snow over the weekend. It's certainly worth mentioning the chance for snow but also worth mentioning the reason for that chance and the fact that banking on snow from clippers this year has been a bad bet. Weather systems from the Gulf or Atlantic have dominated the action, at least so far. 

The critical question about the +PNA hangs over the week beginning Valentine's Day. We have the support of the PNA through the weekend ending the 13th but European and Canadian ensembles shift the ridge in western North America westward allowing cold weather and storminess to prevail in the mountains out west while milder temperatures push up the east coast. The American Ensemble packages dissents on this question and even seemingly more adverse solutions are keeping the pattern flat enough to allow cold air to remain in eastern Canada and to keep the door ajar for more snowfall across interior New England. I might be more pessimistic given this data but the fact that we placed some ice on the Great Lakes and our jet in the Pacific is only mildly irritated as opposed to really angry should keep winter alive in Vermont. We also have another 10 days of sub-freezing mountain temps at least to enjoy our recent bounty. I did notice the Euro op producing the bomb along the east coast around Valentine's Day but this does not have a ton of support,