Hope everyone has been able to enjoy this latest wintry stretch which is set to continue through early Saturday. We've discussed the lack of Champlain enhanced terrain snow this winter which has really been the elephant in the room as it relates to the low total snow amounts in the northern Green Mountains this winter. The clipper system responsible for the next big surge of New England cold on Thursday will bring with it some snow Wednesday night and a few hour window for some additional Champlain enhanced snow. It all should add up to another 2-4 inch terrain sensitive snow by first tracks time Thursday as morning clouds give way to a cold sunshine accompanied by a stiff, arctic northwesterly wind. Temperatures should hover in the teens throughout the day Thursday and fell to as low as 10 below in a few spots Thursday night. We go full bluebird Friday with less winds and near 20-degree afternoon temperatures.
The last of this powdery stretch of weather comes Saturday as clouds and a possible period of light snow accompany near 30-degree temperatures. We then have to encounter our next thaw as temperatures continue to creep upward Saturday night and spend most of Sunday well above the freezing mark. Overall this warm stretch is a bit less concerning for its intensity and duration. Showers are possible Sunday, March 6th along with temperatures that could soar into the 50's across valley locations and 40's on the hill. By Monday however there are more indications that cooler temperatures might put a quicker end to our first March spring interlude. In addition, the cold front responsible for the cooling has one more big wave of precipitation producing low pressure creating the possibility of a rain to snow situation for some mountainous location in New England. I would not get hopes up for this setup since the strength of the incoming cold does not appear especially strong and any snow would be associated with marginal near-freezing temps.
As arctic air gets reconfigured into western areas of North America during the middle days of next week, it will allow Pacific air to assume control of much of the east coast, New England included. I like to make a point of mentioning when the weather might come in colder verses what the smart phone is telling me but in this case I think the middle of next week appears milder than the smart phone indications. Pacific air in March ? This means Tuesday-Thursday are all well-above freezing days, hopefully with decent amounts of sun while overnights are all in the 20's. Very typical March weather honestly but maybe more typical of late March as opposed to early March.
Seems like I've been discussing a big return to winter weather in mid-March for 10 updates now and it's actually only a partial exaggeration. The longer range still shows the potential for some exciting stuff beginning the weekend of March 12-13th, perhaps even beginning Friday if we get really lucky. The jet stream in the Pacific is progressing toward a friendlier and gentler regime with the ridging in Alaska acting as a mechanism for southward moving arctic air. Ensembles also indicate the potential for a very amplified weather situation for the aforementioned weekend. I am concerned that said amplification occurs too far west for big east coast snow but it's certainly worth watching as is the several days that follow which appear more winter-like than March-like.
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