After a beautiful weekend storm and some light snow early Monday, spring invaded northern Vermont and for the most part those conditions will prevail for the duration of the season. There are a few exceptions that will earn a place in this update but we can safely say that the lower mountain will spend lots of time above the freezing mark (most of the time during the day) while the upper mountain sees more occasional 40-plus temperatures.
A weak disturbance in the jet stream on Tuesday will try and make a name for itself off the New England coast Tuesday night and it sets the MRV up for a classic spring snow situation by Wednesday morning. The upper mountain is positioned about as good as it can be to earn a few gloppy inches beginning Tuesday evening and persisting into the overnight. Actually, the whole mountain should see at least some snow (2-5 lower to upper mountain); but again, the snow consistency will be some version of wet. Valley areas below 1000 feet, which got pretty warm Tuesday will see some mixed precipitation go to snow and a minimal accumulation. Much of what falls Tuesday night will melt on Wednesday thanks to a strong dose of March sunshine. Temperatures will respond and reach the 50 degree mark in valley locations and 40's on much of the mountain.
Thursday and Friday are also expected to be quite balmy with 50 degree temperatures encompassing the lower mountain during both afternoons. The question for Thursday relates to sunshine since a rain producing storm to the region's south will have a shield of clouds covering much of central and southern New England. Northern Vermont should steer clear of any rainfall on St Patrick's day and any clouds are at least thin enough to allow for the outdoor beer drinking and relaxing on the MRG deck type of weather. Any clouds on Friday should not bring any rainfall to Vermont but I am afraid this is not the case for Saturday when a significant storm system will approach out of the Mississippi Valley and bring widespread rain to all of New England. Saturday's storm has very little cold air to work with and even the optimal track that the Euro model appears married to will struggle to produce much snow even at the mountain summits. It is a strong enough storm with a deep/cold enough upper low to allow for some elevation sensitive wet snow on Sunday however with temperatures in the 30's. This follows the wet 40-degree temperatures Saturday. It's worth keeping an eye on this storm for any changes given the fact that it does bring with it, substantial amounts of moisture
Very typical late March weather follows for early next week with temperatures rising in the 40's during the day across valley areas while remaining in the 30's over the mountains. It should remain blustery through this period with Sunday's upper low still close enough to allow for instability and elevation sensitive snow showers Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be a little milder and there is a possibility for more rain on Thursday .
The last update was 4 days ago and their were indications even then that the last full weekend of March had the potential to be cooler and potentially stormy. Models have yet to give us a consistent answer but indications of cooler weather and storminess have been amplified especially when looking at the European and Canadian Ensemble guidance. Could winter give us an encore performance on the 26th/27th ? We got a chance at least !
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