Pattern change set to bring immediate taste of winter to northern Vermont !

 Happy end to summer everyone ! We have begun the first 12 days of November warmer than how the last 12 days of September. We've had 2 rounds of excessive, tropical 60-degree dewpoint nights (at two different times), and much of Vermont has been warmer so far this November than most of northern California, and I am not talking about the mountains but low lying coastal areas and the interior semi-arid regions. Honestly, the quality of our weather this fall has been pretty darn good with an extended period of comfortable temperatures and lots of sunshine, but once the calendar turns to November, I'd rather talk about a different kind of weather. After all, we didn't choose to live in Vermont for 65-degree Thanksgivings and rain on Christmas although I've reached a point where the latter seems almost normal. 

Through almost half of November, much of northern Vermont is almost 15 degrees above normal but the month won't finish that way and the flakes of snow Monday morning marks the beginning of an extended and welcome stretch of early winter. There's a lot to talk about with Wednesday's winter storm (get to that in a second) but thinking about the big picture from the standpoint of snowmaking operations, much of the Vermont high country above 2000 feet will remain below freezing through at least Thanksgiving morning. That's the next 10 days and its November so we could certainly do a lot worse. 

The upcoming year will mark enough one without El Nino (more on that in the seasonal outlook coming in a week or so), but the upcoming storm looks like one that might occur in an El Nino year. After enduring a miserable angry Pacific Ocean jet stream, conditions have quickly shifted toward a split flow set up, a beautiful sight for northeast snow lovers. We wont' hold that for long but it will produce our midweek storm which will take shape in the Mississippi Delta region and proceed northeast. An enhanced area of low pressure along the Atlantic coast will form early Wednesday fueled largely by more anomalous sea surface temperature warmth along our coastline. What does this all mean ? Snow should begin after midnight and persist through much of Wednesday and into Wednesday evening. 

How much could fall ? Though I don't think we are walking a tightrope, we are bound by some early season constraints and the possibility that the coastal area of low pressure might stay east of Cape Cod. Regarding the latter, I think that's less likely and I prefer the scenario where we see some more aggressive intensification and a track west of Cape Cod. This will bring some heavy snowfall to northern Vermont Wednesday but this also threatens to allow intrusive layers of warm air turn precipitation to more of a mixed bag with consistency varying depending on elevation. Precipitation type in this case can also be highly dependent on how hard it is falling. Heavier precipitation falls as snow but lighter precipitation might fall as rain, sleet or freezing rain. Much of the high country could still be subject to some mixing but I really believe these areas will stay below freezing making this event a great base builder. Snowfall in valley locations should be pretty wet I think but some powdery snow is certainly possible above 2000 and especially 3000 feet. It's a whole different world up high ! 

Snow totals should be in the 3-6 inch category across valley areas and 6-12 in the high country. I wouldn't be afraid to forecast more aggressively if I wasn't worried about some mixing which has the potential to impact all elevations (even the ones that don't see above freezing temps). 

Though I don't see any organized weather system in the days following our Wednesday event, we are looking at an impressive stretch of cold. What an abrupt shift in the seasons  and even a small blanket of snow should 1) remain on the ground and 2) help overnight temperatures fall into the teens several highs prior to the Thanksgiving holiday. There are smaller disturbances indicated to offer the potential for light snow but before I start promising accumulations from clipper systems, I should remind readers that the "clipper" has been a meager performer the last few seasons and I have hypothesized that it is a function of the persistent warmth we've seen in coastal waters in the western Atlantic Ocean. This said, the warm water in Lake Champlain (51 degrees as of Monday), a direct consequence of all that early November warmth will produce some crazy thermals and very unstable boundary layers across the northern Green Mountains this weekend and early next week. There will be intervals of sunshine but there should be several opportunities for snow showers and snow squalls in this set up. Much of this activity will be focused on the area from Stowe northward to Jay Peak but if we can shift the winds more northwesterly, Mad River Glen and Sugarbush will see some of this as well. As far as temperatures are concerned, the Iphone is starting to spit out some days where temperatures don't reach 30 and I think that's right. One day this weekend and one day early next week are likely to see readings in the 20's and maybe even low 20's. 

Lastly, it is good to be back once again. I was flattered by the emails I received asking about the post season summary this past spring. I wasn't sure anyone even read those, but I do enjoy doing them. My day job usually gives me some downtime for adequate blog updates but this past April and May just got crazy and 10 minute tasks were taking 2 hours. I actually have the summary half written but just couldn't finish it given the vortex of work I was hit with. Regardless, the blog begins again for another season with a preseason outlook coming within a week or so. In the meantime enjoy our early taste of winter !