A nice stretch of sub-freezing temperatures and a bit of snow and we have liftoff once again for our northern Vermont winter. November was just a tease. For the most part, the weather pattern, though not supportive of bitterly cold temperatures yet, will support a continuation of sub-freezing temperatures, perhaps through the Christmas holiday. It will remain dry for the short term with temperatures in the teens during the overnights and 20's during the day with some stiff northerly winds, particularly at the summits. I've been eyeing the possibility of moisture getting sucked back in the maritimes, a frequent occurrence in these types of weather patterns. Furthermore, we have a favorable snow shower wind trajectory Tuesday and Wednesday with the flow directed beautifully from the longest fetch of an unfrozen Lake Champlain possible. For now, models suggest the atmosphere is too stable for anything, but I would not be surprised to see afternoon snow showers or flurries late Tuesday and perhaps again on Wednesday.
I've had the urge the post updates on the upcoming Friday/Saturday storm but models have moved in every direction with this sucker over the last few days and a play by play of this action would be dizzying. In short, the blocked weather pattern will do its job and allow this overly mature and occluded monster of a storm in the plains to establish a new center near the southeast coastline. This process thwarts any northward push of air or severely mitigates it across northern New England. We needed this in the worst way with cold dry air in rather short supply by week's end. Though we can't get too definitive about the details yet, my inkling is that most if not all of the precipitation with this storm remains frozen on the mountain with a small opportunity for sleet or freezing rain and yes rain for valley locations and especially Champlain Valley locations. There's quite a bit of snow possible here also with a thump possible on the front end and a deep pool of instability over the weekend providing the opportunity for additional snowfall on both Saturday and Sunday. A few models late last week lit the fuse, phased and bombed this storm yielding a 2-foot outcome for interior New England. That outcome was then pushed south on Saturday and then the ultra-phased bomber has not been shown on successive cycles of model runs Sunday. I wouldn't entirely eliminate that possibility as of yet, but I feel very good about getting a solid base-building snow (8-16") this Friday and into the weekend for the mountains.
The weather pattern for the upcoming week and through our end of week storm will be dominated by the blocking centered in the Davis strait almost due north of us. As we progress beyond this weekend the weather pattern will take on a different look with the -NAO fading and a new round of high latitude blocking forming closer to the pole north of Alaska in the arctic. This can be a terrific mechanism for transporting bitterly cold arctic air southward and into the United States, but the North American continent will be voided of its core of cold with much of it locked over Siberia. It will be challenging to pull a substantial chunk of that chill over the pole on a massive scale so I continue to favor a garden variety chilly pattern that I think should see additional storms and possibly a very big one right around the Christmas holiday. We are certainly long overdue such a result after experiencing so many recent holiday thaws.
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